Teaching the Science of Climate Change Keith Burrows AIP Education Committee STAVCON November 2007 Please read the Notes pages for more info This ppt available

Teaching the Teaching the Science of Science of

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Keith Burrows

AIP Education Committee

STAVCON November 2007

Please read the Notes pages for more info

This ppt available on

www.vicphysics.org

- Teachers

PART 2

http://www.vicphysics.org/

Human induced changesHuman induced changes How can we understand it? How can we understand it?

– Computer models are the only way of taking all Computer models are the only way of taking all this into account.this into account.

– Use basic physics to calculate movement of heat, Use basic physics to calculate movement of heat, air, water, between small blocks of the air, water, between small blocks of the atmosphere.atmosphere.

– Here’s the basic physics:Here’s the basic physics:

Human induced changesHuman induced changes Climate models and their predictions.Climate models and their predictions.

– These are just F = ma These are just F = ma applied to moving fluidsapplied to moving fluids

– This is conservation of This is conservation of massmass

– This governs the way This governs the way heat flows between heat flows between systemssystems

Human induced changesHuman induced changes

Climate models and their predictions.Climate models and their predictions.

– The climate system is modelled The climate system is modelled as cells of air (or water) and the as cells of air (or water) and the equations are applied to see how equations are applied to see how much air/heat flows between much air/heat flows between each pair of cellseach pair of cells

– This is repeated all around the This is repeated all around the EarthEarth

– The models have improved by The models have improved by making the cells smallermaking the cells smaller

– They are now about 110 km They are now about 110 km square by 1 km highsquare by 1 km high


– The initial conditions have to be fed into the The initial conditions have to be fed into the model and then it generates weather and climate model and then it generates weather and climate patterns over hours, days, years or centuries!patterns over hours, days, years or centuries!

– Here is the result of one:Here is the result of one:


Climate models and their predictions.Climate models and their predictions.– Models are tested to see if they generate past Models are tested to see if they generate past

known climate patterns.known climate patterns.– They are becoming more and more accurate. They are becoming more and more accurate.

over hours, days (7 day forecasts), years or over hours, days (7 day forecasts), years or centuries!centuries!

– Anthropogenic factors can be added/removedAnthropogenic factors can be added/removed

The science of climate changeThe science of climate change


Climate models and their predictions.Climate models and their predictions.– The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis

Report which contains the most detailed and Report which contains the most detailed and worrying predictions yet.worrying predictions yet.


Climate models and their predictions.Climate models and their predictions.– The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis

Report which contains the most detailed and Report which contains the most detailed and worrying predictions yet.worrying predictions yet.


– The following diagrams are taken from the The following diagrams are taken from the AR4 Synthesis ReportAR4 Synthesis Report

OverviewOverview Climate scienceClimate science

– Earth’s energy balanceEarth’s energy balance– Interactions between emr and the atmosphereInteractions between emr and the atmosphere– The effect of changes in the systemThe effect of changes in the system

Human induced changesHuman induced changes– The release of millions of years of stored energyThe release of millions of years of stored energy– Is the climate changing?Is the climate changing?– How can we understand it? How can we understand it? – Climate models and their predictions.Climate models and their predictions.

What can we do?What can we do?– Fossil fuelsFossil fuels– Reduce energy useReduce energy use– Lower CO2 optionsLower CO2 options– Sustainable optionsSustainable options

The human responseThe human response– Sceptics, deniers, avoidersSceptics, deniers, avoiders– Change the light bulbsChange the light bulbs– The need for real changeThe need for real change

EducationEducation– That’s where we come inThat’s where we come in

What can we do?What can we do? Fossil fuelsFossil fuels

– We have to reduce them but we are extremely We have to reduce them but we are extremely dependant on themdependant on them


– Cutting car use has to Cutting car use has to be a prioritybe a priority

ABS


– One of the dirtiest power stations in the world!One of the dirtiest power stations in the world!

What can we do?What can we do? Reduce energy useReduce energy use

– Better forms of transportBetter forms of transport

What can we do?What can we do?

Reduce energy useReduce energy use– Better forms of transport – maybe these?Better forms of transport – maybe these?


Reduce energy useReduce energy use– Better forms of transport – certainly theseBetter forms of transport – certainly these


Reduce energy useReduce energy use– These are a problem!These are a problem!


Reduce energy Reduce energy useuse– This could be This could be

fun. Maybe we fun. Maybe we need to be a bit need to be a bit more relaxed more relaxed about getting about getting places!places!

What can we do?What can we do? Lower COLower CO22 options options

– Sequestration of COSequestration of CO22 from power stations - ? from power stations - ?

– More efficient coal stationsMore efficient coal stations– Combined cycle gas generatorsCombined cycle gas generators

What can we do?What can we do? Lower COLower CO22 options options

– Nuclear ? Nuclear ?

What can we do?What can we do? Sustainable optionsSustainable options

60 kilowatt (10 year ago) 1300 kilowatt now


We make per day about:

5 – 10 kWh

Feed in to grid about

4 – 6 kWh

Draw from grid about

2 – 3 kWh


Gas used for hot water since installation a month ago:

NONE at allNONE at all



– Geothermal – ‘hot rocks’Geothermal – ‘hot rocks’– Potentially very large resourcesPotentially very large resources– (get pic!)(get pic!)


– The ‘base load problem’?The ‘base load problem’?– We are no where near having that problem yet!We are no where near having that problem yet!

Spot the renewables!

What can we do?What can we do? Sustainable options – base load?Sustainable options – base load?

– Wide distribution of sources evens out the loadWide distribution of sources evens out the load– Linking them is not as difficult as we are toldLinking them is not as difficult as we are told– Solar feeds power in at peak use timeSolar feeds power in at peak use time– Pumped storage is used now (Snowy, Tas)Pumped storage is used now (Snowy, Tas)– Other storage options possible in futureOther storage options possible in future– HVDCHVDC

What can we do?What can we do? Sustainable options – HVDC Sustainable options – HVDC

– High Voltage DC transmissionHigh Voltage DC transmission– Basslink provides peak and stores excessBasslink provides peak and stores excess


– Making big difference to long Making big difference to long distance transmissiondistance transmission

– Carries twice the powerCarries twice the power– Can go 1000’s of km Can go 1000’s of km

(AC < 1000 km)(AC < 1000 km)


– High power high voltage semiconductors have High power high voltage semiconductors have made the differencemade the difference


– Area neededArea needed

to collect ALL to collect ALL

of Australia’s of Australia’s

energy use.energy use.


Where areWhere are

the solarthe solar

collectors?collectors?


This is in sunny Germany!This is in sunny Germany!


We have to get away from thisWe have to get away from this


To thisTo this







The human responseThe human response

SSceptics, deniers, avoidersceptics, deniers, avoiders

Talks of “Alarmist of the Year Tim Flannery” flying around the world, then has a go at the UN Climate Change conference in Bali next month where 12000 people will fly in: “Hypocrisy is too small a word for so monstrous a circus. If it wasn't for the fact the planet actually hasn't warmed for nine years now, I'd cry.”


SSceptics, deniers, avoidersceptics, deniers, avoiders


SSceptics, deniers, avoidersceptics, deniers, avoiders– ““We are in a cooling phase” Yes but…We are in a cooling phase” Yes but…


Change the light bulbsChange the light bulbs– Yes, and turn down the thermostat, Yes, and turn down the thermostat, – but that is a very tiny startbut that is a very tiny start

The human responseThe human response The need for real changeThe need for real change

– It will costIt will cost– But many jobs could be createdBut many jobs could be created– It will cost much more if we don’t start nowIt will cost much more if we don’t start now

But remember them?But remember them?

EducationEducation That’s where we come inThat’s where we come in

– The science leads to understandingThe science leads to understanding

– The need for optimismThe need for optimism

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Teaching the Science of Climate Change Keith Burrows AIP Education Committee STAVCON November 2007 Please read the Notes pages for more info This ppt available