TeamBuilder News

January 4, 2010

Bill on Marketing

We are all looking for the magic sign telling us recovery is near. You can stoplooking. I will tell you when it happens. The following are some signs andtrends that showing how complicated and confusing things are these days:

â ¢ As we will see in a few days, when NWMLS releases theirDecember figures, 2009 was better than 2008 as far as totalsales go. This is good. â ¢ There is a shortage of affordable housing. Lower pricedsingle family homes - - under $500,000, $400,000 or $300,000,depending upon the area - - are selling briskly, with a bit ofprofit to the builder. â ¢ So-called Shadow Inventory is puzzling, and not helpful.See below. â ¢ Recently, we have had some modest price gain in selectedprice ranges and selected areas. This is very, very, very good. â ¢ Unemployment is very high, and underreported by thegovernment, who do not count unemployed people whosebenefits have expired. Jim Hebert from Hebert Research toldme the true unemployment numbers could be as high as 16 â “18%. â ¢ Apartment vacancy rates are currently at 8% or so,according to Dupre + Scott, the leading source of multifamilyinformation. This is high. â ¢ There were only five commercial office transactions ofmore than $20 million last year, compared to 117 in 2007. JimDeLisle from the UW claims a 40 to 60 percent drop incommercial real estate values from their 2007 peaks. This crisisis now upon us.

Not yet, folks, but recovery is in sight.

Email based communication avoids unnecessary spending on paper and helps to preserveour ever depleting natural resources. We do not wish to share our valuable informationwith those who are not interested. If you do not want to receive this publication from usin the future, you may choose to unsubscribe below.

March 29, 2010

Bill on the MarketThough my knees shake and my voice trembles as I relay this info, we haveindeed, raised a few prices in the past couple of months. Could it be......?Anyone else out there with a similar experience? This flies in the face of recentnational news that new home sales plunged in February to a historic low. Wehave lower inventory, as Winningham shows below, and homes that deliver goodvalue are moving. Discounted condos are selling as well, with a slug of sales indowntown Seattle at Escala and Enso. Statistics come out after the fact. Ourown hands on experience in the Puget Sound region tells us that well priced andpositioned product is moving.

Speaking of Escala, the three prize-winners at the big brokerâ ™s open lastweek were David Nicholson from John L. Scott, West Seattle; Eric Uyeji fromWindermere, Mt. Baker; and Jonathan Villalobos from ReMax.

Mark Winningham Looks at Spec Inventory

Recent numbers from our friends at New Home Trends show that the mediansales price of a new single family home in the four-county region has beenhovering around $300,000 since September 2009. New single family spec homeinventory is at a 4.3 month supply, and volumes in January 2010 were up 34%over January 2009. To get this chart in higher definition email Deanna Sihon [email protected].


March 22, 2010

Bill on Marketing

This chart, courtesy of the U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells FargoSecurities, suggests that our factory and manufacturing sectors are leading the wayto what (we hope) is a long-term return to normalcy in our economy. Sales of newand existing homes, however, have fallen sharply in recent months, following aspurt in sales fueled by the tax credit incentive. Regarding when it will all end, Iwould like to paraphrase Sir Winston, who said this is not the beginning of theend, but possibly the end of the beginning. Thank you for the data, Daniel Deutschof Wells Fargo.

Sarah "Krebsy" Adams Looks at Rents

This is a list cities would not like to be on, the 10 U.S. cities with the biggestrent drops. Seattle-Bellevue-Everett is number one. Tacoma didn’t fare muchbetter.better.

Sarah "Krebsy" Adams Crunches Numbers

Ever wonder what the Federal budget looks like, with the zeros added? See thefollowing, published by the Treasury. The full release and explanation can befound at http://www.treas.gov/press/releases/tg322.htm. I do recognize whatthe red ink means.


March 15, 2010

La'Cee Loves Design

There were a couple of Washington winners in the 2009-2010 Sunset-AIAWestern Home Awards. An Honorable Mention went to the Envelope House inSeattle, designed by Bohlin Cywinski Jackson. The judges liked the EnvelopeHouse structure, which is built out to the limits of the allowable buildingenvelope, leaving a courtyard in the center of the site. The other HonorableMention went to the Wyers End Neighborhood in White Salmon (KlickitatCounty, east of Vancouver, Washington). The judges commented that the nearlytwo dozen pedestrian-friendly homes occupied a 2.4 acre infill site, shaded mymature oaks, near the center of a rural Washington town. Doss Chapin Architectswere the designers.

Email based communication avoids unnecessary spending on paper and helps to preserve ourever depleting natural resources. We do not wish to share our valuable information with thosewho are not interested. If you do not want to receive this publication from us in the future,you may choose to unsubscribe below.

March 8, 2010

Erik on Downtown

The big news this past week has been the sudden and dramatic price reductions indowntown Seattle and Bellevue highrise towers. Escala and Four Seasons bothreleased new pricing information to the press, while some of the other communitiesare more quietly either softening prices or taking offers. Here is the link for thePuget Sound Business Journal article concerning Escala and its price reductions.http://seattle.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2010/03/01/daily16.html?ed=20

Data source: King County Department of Assessments, as of 2/8/10. For the sake of full disclosure,Rennie Marketing Systems and TeamBuilder JLS are the marketing and sales partners at Escala.

Sarah "Krebsy" Adams Looks at 2010

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported the strongest February since 2007, which is good news, indeed. OB Jacobi, general manager of Windermere Real Estate, commented that the “first job increases since 2008 is every indication that our market is in recovery”.Prices, while showing signs of stabilizing, were still down 6.5 percent from last year, area wide. “Over the past 90 days there has been a buildup of positive momentum in the housing market” remarked J. Lennox Scott of John L. Scott, Inc. We agree.


March 1, 2010

Bill on Marketing

Because this matters so much to real estate, I wanted to report that Man U beatout the Yankees as the worldâ ™s most valuable team brand in Forbesâ ™annual ranking. Note that six of the top eight were soccer teams. Go, Arsenal.

Sarah "Krebsy" Adams Keeps Track

Someone around here has to do real estate, so it might as well be me. We aregetting consistent reports of more buyer activity, sales and customer traffic fromthe field. This is not across the board, by any means, but certainly is true is Kingand Snohomish counties. With January sales in the NWMLS up over the pasttwo years, we are looking forward to seeing the February numbers, which wewill be able to report next week. The Wells Fargo/NAHB housing index showsthat HMI (the index), customer traffic and sales are all trending up in the earlypart of 2010.


February 22, 2010

Bill on Marketing

Television advertising - - with todayâ ™s lower rates - - has become a viableoption for real estate. We just shot our second series of commercials forVerdeaux Condominiums, north of Kirkland, and had a great time workingwith Michael Kostov from Kostov Film. FYI, we use a terrific media buyerfor the time purchases - - Kathy Neukirchen - - and have been properlyeducated by working with some great salespeople representing the stations likeJill Thomas from KIRO, Robin Ernst from KOMO, Alyson Munday fromKING and Rich Strauss from Comcast. All the talent on the commercial washome-grown, as well, which made it even more enjoyable. Jae Evans fromTeamBuilder was the star, once again. Jae doesnâ ™t have to pay us thistime, either.

Developer Terry Lien preparingfor his one line. He did fine.

Camera guy Eric Esau & DirectorDouglas Horn getting it exactly right.

View the entire commercial at:http://www.youtube.com/user/TeamBuilderJLS#p/a/f/0/UbWUz_vo37U

Sarah "Krebsy" Adams Keeps Track

Forbes Magazine just released single-sales at newsstands and other retail sitesfor leading U.S. consumer magazines during the second half of 2009. Not allmagazines report to the Audit Bureau of Circulation, but this is a pretty goodindicator of reading habits.


February 16, 2010

Bill on Marketing

2009 was a turbulent year in commercial real estate, according to a recentnewsletter from Colliers International. The Puget Sound posted 874,000 SF ofnet negative absorption in Q4 of 2009, with a year to date 1,718,000 SF ofnegative net absorption throughout the region. Many new buildings haveadded to this negative figure, but the writers of The Knowledge Report fromColliers see a better outlook for 2010.

Sarah "Krebsy" Adams Looks Affluent

Business Week recently published an article listing the 10 most expensive smalltowns in America. Hunts Point, Washington was number three! It is not asurprise that these towns are concentrated around New York City, San Franciso,San Jose, Seattle and Palm Beach, very affluent areas with pockets of mega-wealth. Only towns in seven states made it into the top 50. Nearly half thewinners are concentrated in and around Long Island, and note that some areasare still showing price increases. The most expensive small towns are clusteredalong a coastline. So if youâ ™re looking for lower prices, move inland.

Sarah "Krebsy" Adams Reports

We just had the best January since 2007 in our four-county region, which isgood news. Inventory is down, but so are prices. There are 10.3 percent fewerlistings than a year ago, and sale prices area wide (entire NWMLS) declined 4.8percent from a year ago.


February 8, 2010

Bill on Marketing

Some dish and a few tidbits. Our friends at Cobalt Mortgage have purchased acouple of their competitors, so good for them; there is a DR Horton site inSouth Snohomish County named Merlot that recently sold 21 or so homes atwarp speed; Louis Howardâ ™s show on Blog Radio continues to educateand entertain, go to www.blogtalkradio.com/louis-howard; recent reportsfrom credible sources state that prices have stabilized in the Seattle market andwe have reached bottom, OR, prices will still go down and we have notreached bottom; the Burnsteads report that 300 people attended a GrandOpening at The Woods at Beaver Lake a few weeks ago; last week Moodyâ™s Investor Service warned that the Triple A sovereign credit rating of the

US would come under pressure without more growth and a reduced budgetdeficit; the New Home Council social media event at Bellevue Towers wasthe single best event I have ever attended on the subject. Kudos to JonathanRundle, Denny Andrews, Al Doyle, Lisa Parrish and Vija Williams. Asusual, the event sold out. Our thanks to Jason Foss of Bellevue Towers andJim Trout of Wells Fargo for their great support.

The New Home Council Social Media Event


February 2, 2010

Bill on Marketing

The developers of Escala have created the big buzz incondo circles this week by hiring the incomparable urbancondo guru, Bob Rennie of Rennie Marketing Systems,to revamp the marketing approach of this magnificentbuilding. Bob, as usual, captures the tenor of the times inthis sentiment about today's pricing. â œPricing is beingcompletely readdressed and I think we have to addressthat the marketplace wants quality, not hyper-luxury.They want quality and value.â The current Club Cieloportion of the community is being modified, as well.Check out SomethingIsChangingAtEscalaSeattle.com

For the sake of full disclosure, TeamBuilder is the new listing Agent, withDowntown Erik Mehr in charge of the sales team.


The Case Shiller year end indices are out, and there is some good news, andsome not-so-good news. From the peak (June 2006) to the trough (April 2009)the National decline was 32.0%. Since the trough, however, appreciation is inthe 5 â “ 6% range. The lines are beginning to curve upward! Our thanks toDaniel Deutsch from Wells Fargo, who keeps us supplied with timely andinteresting information and analysis.


January 25, 2010

Bill on Marketing

Using differing methodology, Winningham and I came up with the followingchart to define â ˜affordableâ ™ in our market. Our definition is based uponachieving a minimum of two sales per month. Single family. This is ouranalysis. Comments?

Also, donâ ™t miss the big New Home Council social media event thisThursday at Bellevue Towers, 4:00PM start time. There is a modest charge. Goto www.TheNewHomeCouncil.com to register. Do it now!


December retail sales dropped slightly â “ 0.2% (excluding auto sales) â “ butFTN Financial reports that many retailers are expecting an uptick in the firstquarter of 2010. After-holiday discount sales and gift card spending account formuch of this, but American consumers are also loosening their purse-strings abit these days.

Email based communication avoids unnecessary spending on paper and helps to preserveour ever depleting natural resources. We do not wish to share our valuable information withthose who are not interested. If you do not want to receive this publication from us in thefuture, you may choose to unsubscribe below.

January 18, 2010

Bill on Marketing

Egads, could it be happening? We are getting reports of good sales activity - -especially presales - - from a number of sources. Harbour Homes, VillageCommunities, The Burnsteads, Harr Family Homes, CamWest, SDC, and Connerare all reporting decent presale activity. Iâ ™m sure Quadrant should be on thelist, but they are careful about sharing information. Condo sales at Verdeaux, Enso& Gallery are also brisk. Many of the sales are in the more affordable price ranges- - or with large priced discounts - - but these sales show that market demandexists. I report what I hear about, so send me info and I am happy to publishresults.

On another front, Eric Phillips, the new Director of Development in the city ofEdgewood (Puyallup area), is taking a pro-active approach with developers andreaching out for comments and suggestions. Interesting. Could be catchy.www.cityofedgewood.com


RealtyTrac recently published that an estimated 3.2 million households will havereceived a foreclosure notice in 2009, up from 2.3 million in 2008. They projectthe number could reach 4 million in 2010. At about the same time, Moodyâ ™slisted the five best cities for home prices, which follow in the chart below. Thesepockets share the same characteristics, namely, limited supply of housing stock andprices that reasonably stayed in sync with household income over the past decade.We also note that these markets are not among the largest populationconcentrations in the country.

Email based communication avoids unnecessary spending on paper and helps topreserve our ever depleting natural resources. We do not wish to share our valuableinformation with those who are not interested. If you do not want to receive thispublication from us in the future, you may choose to unsubscribe below.

January 11, 2010

Bill on Marketing

There is more and continued division within the builder-trade association frontthat needs mentioning. 16 large, national-type builders have formed theLeading Builders of America (LBA) group, in direct competition to theNational Association of Homebuilders (NAHB). Of course, LBA claims theyare not in competition with NAHB, yada, yada, yada, but they surely are. Itseems there is a clash over a recent bill that would have extended carryoverlosses forward, among other issues. Both groups, to my eye, are just fightingover how many government subsidies they can wrangle. Sad. Did anyone everconsider less government as the answer? On another front, a few peoplecommented on the Dubai experience. Bryan Wahl of Wahl Strategies saidDubai in 2007 was â œcapitalism on steroids.â Sam Anderson from MBAwas in Dubai in 2009 as part of the Seattle International Study Mission. Sammentioned meeting a developer, Mohammad Alabbar, the owner of EmaarDevelopment, who went to Bellevue Community College and then on to SeattleUniversity. He said that in spite of owning homes all over the world, more thananything he wants to own a house in Kirkland some day. There are a fewavailable in my neighborhood, Mohammad.

Winningham Reports on Apartments

Dupre + Scott continues to supply excellent information on the rental market.Vacancies are up, rents are declining, and a lot of new construction will hit in2010. There are many positives for 2011 and beyond, but that is a differentarticle. The first chart shows that apartment price per unit has declined in 2009,and that apartment sales below the purchase price have increased, as well.

Sarah "Krebsy" Adams Looks at 2009

Shadow Inventory estimates real estate owned by banks and mortgagecompanies, as a result of foreclosures and other actions, as well as real estatethat is at least 90 days delinquent. As of September, 2009, the latest figuresavailable, First America CoreLogic estimated there was a 1.7 million unitspending supply of residential housing inventory, up from 1.1 million a yearearlier. At current sales rates, the pending supply is 3.3 months, up from 2.4months a year ago. So, â ˜realâ ™ inventory is diminishing, but the ShadowInventory (in yellow) keeps the overall supply higher than usually reported.


Documents

TeamBuilder News