09/08/2016

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY XAU/USD

“Nothing has changed on the daily chart of the EUR/USD forex market. It is still in its month-long trading range after what was probably an exhaustive sell climax.” – based on Brooks Price Action

EUR/USD surges to 1.1090 on Wednesday

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.1328/1.1341 Bollinger Band; weekly R3

■ R2 1.1229/64 55 and 100-day SMA; weekly R2

■ R1 1.1129/57 Monthly PP; 20-day SMA; weekly R1

■ S1 1.1079/88 200-day SMA; weekly PP

■ S2 1.0972 Weekly S1

■ S3 1.0929 Bollinger Band

Pair’s Outlook The Euro surged marked a session of gains against the US Dollar on

Wednesday, as the currency exchange rate increased from 1.1059 at

the start of day’s trading to 1.1090 at the end of the day. The pair

passed the weekly pivot point at 1.1079, and it stopped exactly at the

200-day simple moving average. Thursday morning, the rate is

continuing to move higher, as it reached 1.1108 mark by 4:45 GMT. On

the way up, the exchange rate is set to move to the monthly PP at

1.1149. However, the 20-day SMA at 1.1128 will likely show some

resistance to the pair.

Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders continue to be bearish on Thursday, as 54% of open

positions are short. In the meantime, pending orders in the 100-pip

range are 56% short.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Tuesday, August 09, 2016 07:30 GMT

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -8% -6% -6%

-12% -26% -34% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Buy Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Buy Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Neutral Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Buy

Aggregate ↘ → →

“The Euro finds itself on the defensive once again having found resistance above the 1.12 figure against the US Dollar.” – Ilya Spivak (based on Daily FX)

EUR/USD rebounds on Tuesday

Pair’s Outlook The common European currency slightly surged on Monday, as it

moved to the 1.1088 level after bouncing off the 200-day SMA at

1.1078. On Tuesday morning, the currency exchange rate moved lower

and reached below the 200-day simple moving average. However, this

is the third time that the pair has rebounded against the support of the

SMA, and, as the daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a surge

for the pair, it is most likely that the exchange rate will surge during

Tuesday’s trading session.

Traders’ Sentiment SWFX traders continue to be bearish on the pair, as 56% of open

positions were short on Tuesday morning. In the meantime, pending

commands remain 51% short.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.1197 Weekly R1

■ R2 1.1150 55-day SMA

■ R1 1.1098/1.1122 20-day SMA; weekly and monthly PPs

■ S1 1.1080 200-day SMA

■ S2 1.1017/10 Monthly and weekly S1s

■ S3 1.0968 Bollinger band

Tuesday, August 09, 2016 07:30 GMT

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -12% -10% -12%

-2% -2% -6% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Sell Buy

Aggregate ↗ ↘ →

GBP/USD continues to edge lower

Level Rationale

■ R3 1.3368 Bollinger band

■ R2 1.3289/1.3322 Weekly R1; 23.60% Fibo

■ R1 1.3155/80 Weekly and monthly PPs; 20-day SMA

■ S1 1.2991/39 Bollinger band; weekly S1

■ S2 1.2860 Monthly S1

■ S3 1.2805/1.2794 Weekly S2; July low; down-trend

Pair’s Outlook Not much has changed during the last 24 hours, meaning that the near-

term outlook for the Cable remains bearish. The pair is still expected to

fall towards the 1.28 major level, where the weekly S1 coincides with

the July low and the descending channel’s support line. However, the

exchange rate is unlikely to reach this area today, with the main

support still being the cluster around 1.2960, represented by the

weekly S1 and the Bollinger band. Meanwhile, technical indicators

retain their mixed signals in the daily timeframe, while being bearish in

the weekly one.

Traders’ Sentiment Market sentiment remains close to equilibrium, as only 55% of all open

positions are long today, compared to 51% on Monday. The share of

sell orders barely changed as well, having fallen from 63 to 62%.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Tuesday, August 09, 2016 07:30 GMT

“Given our more hawkish view that the Fed will deliver a rate hike in September, we think there is a lot of room on the downside and target $1.24 in cable.” - BNP Paribas (based on Reuters)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 10% 2% 0%

-24% -26% -32% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Buy Buy

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Sell Neutral

CCI (14) Buy Neutral Buy

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Sell Sell

Aggregate → ↘ →

USD/JPY remains on the back foot

Level Rationale

■ R3 104.89/105.24 Weekly R3; 55-day SMA; down-trend

■ R2 103.91/104.05 Weekly R2; 20-day SMA

■ R1 102.85/103.18 Weekly R1; monthly PP

■ S1 101.76 Weekly PP

■ S2 100.74/70 Weekly S1; 50% Fibo

■ S3 100.15/99.61 Bollinger band; weekly S2

Pair’s Outlook The recent rebound from the 50% Fibo keeps suggesting that a short-

term recovery towards the current descending channel’s resistance line

is likely to take place. On the other hand, daily technical indicators

imply the USD/JPY currency pair is to sustain a loss today, with the

weekly PP at 101.76 acting as the immediate support. In any case, the

overall outlook is to remain bearish, as long as the key resistance

remains intact, meaning that the current recovery might be short-lived.

However, it is uncertain whether bears will be able to push the

exchange rate significantly below the support area of 100.70.

Traders’ Sentiment Bullish traders’ sentiment keeps fading, as 58% of traders are long the

Buck (previously 60%). Meanwhile, the portion of buy orders declined

from 59 to 55%.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Tuesday, August 09, 2016 07:30 GMT

“The labor market storyline could be very dollar supportive and consistent with a U.S. rate hike in December or even September.” - Oanda Corp. (based on Bloomberg)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions 16% 20% 22%

10% 18% 0% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Sell Sell Sell

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Sell Sell Neutral

ADX (14) Neutral Sell Sell

CCI (14) Neutral Buy Buy

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Sell Sell Sell

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Sell Buy Sell

Aggregate ↘ → ↘

Gold flat at 1,333 on Tuesday

Pair’s Outlook The yellow metal did not move in a certain direction on Monday, as the

metal slightly moved lower to 1,333.93 at the end of the day’s trading

session. On Tuesday morning, the commodity opened day’s trading

higher than the previous close, as it started trading at 1,335.70.

However, by 5:30 GMT gold had moved lower to 1,333.80 level, as the

metal tried to break through resistance put up by the 20-day SMA at

1,337.37 and failed at it. If the metal continues to fall, there are no

support levels, which could stop it, until the level of 1,324.16.

Traders’ Sentiment Trader sentiment regarding gold remained unchanged on Tuesday

morning, compared to Monday, as 51% of open positions were short

both sessions. In the meantime, pending commands became more

bullish, as 55% of orders were long, compared to 53% on Monday.

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

Tuesday, August 09, 2016 07:30 GMT

“Gold Has High Odds Of Putting In A Triangle Right Shoulder On Its Head And Shoulders.” – Trader Moe (based on investing.com)

Sentiment Today Yesterday 5 days ago Positions -2% -2% -12%

10% 6% 46% Orders

Indicator 1D 1W 1MN

MACD (12; 26; 9) Buy Buy Buy

RSI (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

Stochastic (5; 3; 3) Neutral Sell Sell

ADX (14) Neutral Neutral Neutral

CCI (14) Neutral Sell Sell

AROON (14) Buy Buy Buy

Alligator (13; 8; 5) Buy Buy Buy

SAR (0.02; 0.2) Buy Buy Buy

Aggregate ↗ ↗ ↗

Level Rationale

■ R3 1,356.64 Weekly R1

■ R2 1,345.68 Monthly and weekly PPs

■ R1 1,337.38 20-day SMA

■ S1 1,324.16 Weekly S1

■ S2 1,315/1,310 Monthly S1; weekly S2; Bollinger band

■ S3 1,303.38 55-day SMA

Signals Buy – the pair shows a clear uptrend Sell – the pair shows a clear downtrend Neutral – no specific trend for the pair Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Indicators MACD – Moving average convergence divergence – momentum indicator RSI – Relative strength index – compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in attempt to determine ‘overbought’ and ‘oversold’ conditions of the asset Stochastic – technical momentum indicator that compares a currency pair’s closing price to its price range over a given time period ADX – Average directional index – trend strength indicators CCI – oscillator used in technical analysis to help determine when a currency has been overbought or oversold SAR – trending indicator – shows the direction of a trend AROON – measures strength of a trend and likelihood that it will continue Alligator – trending indicator demonstrates presence of a trend and its direction Forecasts

Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts

Second Quartile – the median price based on the

projections of the industry

First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts

EXPLANATIONS

Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 research@dukascopy.com

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