Technology Applicability for Prediction &

Recognition of Piracy EffortsNATO ASI

September 2011Salamanca, Spain

Approach

• Decompose the process of predicting and characterizing piracy attacks (the mission) into a set of technical issues (i.e. needed capabilities which technology might help provide)

• For each such issue, list potential technical solutions in terms of their maturity and potential effectiveness in resolving the issue

Definitions and Metrics (1 of 2)

• Mission Capability: the ability to predict and recognize piracy efforts sufficiently to support effective responses

• Issue: A technical problem relevant to achieving the mission capability

• Criticality: the degree to which achieving the mission capability depends on resolving the given issue: i.e. finding a solution to the given problem:

• Analogous Applications: other mission capabilities that involve related technical issues

Most Least

Definitions and Metrics (2 of 2)

• Applicable Techniques: technologies or designs that might be used to solve the given issue

• Effectiveness: the degree to which the given technique could provide a solution to the given problem:

• Maturity: the technology readiness level (TRL) of the given technique (defined in the next chart):

• Recommendations: Suggested actions for NATO or NATO members to solve the given issues

Least Most

TRL 0-1 TRL 2-3 TRL 4-5 TRL 6-7 TRL 8-9

Technology Readiness Levels

TRL 1 Basic principles observed & reported

TRL 2 Technology concept & application formulated

TRL 3 Proof of concept

TRL 4 Component validated in lab environment

TRL 5 Component validated in relevant environment

TRL 6 Prototype demonstration in relevant environment

TRL 7 Prototype demonstration in operations environment

TRL 8 System completed and qualified through test & demonstration

TRL 9 System proven through successful mission operations

Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy:Lower-Level Knowledge Development (1 of

2)

IssueCriticality

Analogous Applications

Applicable Techniques

Effective ness

Maturity

Recommen dations

Wide Area Sensor Coverage

• Cooperative (e.g. AIS)• Patrol Aircraft\• Long Endurance UAV• Space Imagery

Data Dissemination

Data Alignment• Multi-INT registration• Poisson Point registr.• Evidence conditioning

Uncertainty Representation

• Bayesian• Evidential• Semantic

Data Association• MHT• (J)PDA• PHD

Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy:Lower-Level Knowledge Development (2 of

2)

IssueCriticality

Analogous Applications

Applicable Techniques

Effective ness

Maturity

Recommen dations

Target Detection • Model-Based• Anomaly-Based

Target Location/ Tracking

• KF, EKF, IMM• Particle Filter• PDF

Target Type Classification

• Statistical Pattern Rec• Syntactic• Neural Net• Explanation-Based

Target Attributes • Syntactic• Explanation-Based

Target Activity • Case-Based• Correlation-Based

Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy:Higher-Level Knowledge Development (1

of 2)

IssueCriticality

Analogous Applications

Applicable Techniques

Effective ness

Maturity

Recommen dations

Data Mining

Semantic Extraction

Numeric/Symbolic Data Fusion

Complexity Management

Situation Representation

Ontology Management

Situation Model Management

Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy:Higher-Level Knowledge Development (2

of 2)

IssueCriticality

Analogous Applications

Applicable Techniques

Effective ness

Maturity

Recommen dations

Relationship Characterization

Network Characterization

Situation Characterization

Situation Tracking

Scenario Recognition

Threat Event Prediction

Indications and Warning

Technology Applicability to Counter Piracy:Decision Support

IssueCriticality

Analogous Applications

Applicable Techniques

Effective ness

Maturity

Recommen dations

Situation Presentation

Presentation of Situation Dynamics

Uncertainty Presentation

Conditional/Counter- factual Presentation

Data Entry

Hard/ Soft Data Fusion

Operator Control

Collaboration Tools

Threat Assessment Functions• Threat Event Prediction: Determining likely threat events

(“threatened events” or “attacks”): who, what, where, when, why, how• Indications and Warning: Recognition that an attack is imminent or

under way• Threat Entity Detection and Characterization: determining the

identities, attributes, composition, location/track, activity capability, intent of agents and other entities involved in a threatened or current attack

• Attack (or Threat Event) Assessment:– Responsible parties (country, organization, individuals, etc.) and attack roles;– Intended target(s) of attack;– Intended effect (e.g. physical, political, economic, psychological effects);– Threat capability (e.g. weapon and delivery system characteristics);– Force composition, coordination and tactics (goal and plan decomposition);

• Consequence Assessment: Estimation & prediction of event outcome states (threatened situations) and cost/utility to the responsible parties, to affected parties or to system user. Can include both intended & unintended consequences