September 7, 2018 Tennessee Market Highlights Number: 36

FED CATTLE: Fed cattle trade was not well established at press. Asking prices on a live basis were mainly $110 to $111 with bids from $104 to $106. The 5-area weighted average prices thru Thursday were $107.89 live, up $0.72 from last week and $169.57 dressed, up $0.26 from a week ago. A year ago prices were $103.14 live and $163.00 dressed. Beef packers and cattle feeders have either never heard the song “Meet in the Middle” by Diamond Rio or they do not believe it makes good business sense. Meeting in the middle may or may not make business sense, but waiting until the stroke of mid-night to do business could shorten one’s life expectancy or at the very least result in some tired people on Saturday. At the same time packers and feeders spar over cash prices, futures traders are pricing in greater than a $4 price increase for live cattle between October and December and another $4 from December to February. The late summer market has held up very well and there is only two more weeks of summer based on the calendar. Live cattle futures are calling for higher prices this fall and winter. BEEF CUTOUT: At midday Friday, the Choice cutout was $206.98 down $1.77 from Thursday and down $3.02 from last Friday. The Select cutout was $197.86 up $0.03 from Thursday and down $2.79 from last Friday. The Choice Select spread was $9.12 compared to $9.35 a week ago. Using monthly beef and veal import and export data provided by USDA-ERS, imports the first seven months of 2018 are up a half percent compared to 2017 and total 1.82 billion pounds. If this rate increase persists throughout the year then total beef and veal imports will exceed 3 billion pounds. Canada and New Zealand lead the way as import sources in 2018 and account for 49 percent of beef and veal imports through July. Imports from Australia have moderat-ed due to severe drought in major cattle

producing regions, but imports from Aus-tralia have made up 21 percent of total imports. Mexico is the fourth largest beef and veal import source at 16 percent total volume but imports year to date are 15 percent lower than the same time period in 2017. On the export side, beef and veal exports the first seven months of the year total 1.81 billion pounds which is a 15 per-cent increase for the same months in 2017. If exports continue at this same pace then they too will exceed 3 billion pounds. Pri-mary destinations remain Japan, South Ko-rea, Mexico, Canada, Hong Kong, and Tai-wan. OUTLOOK: Based on Tennessee weekly auction price averages, steers and heifers traded steady to $3 lower compared to last week. Similarly, slaughter cow prices were $2 lower this week compared to last week while slaughter bull prices were $1 to $2 lower than a week ago. The 500 to 600 pound steer market in Tennessee has been trading in a range from $149 to $153 since the middle of May, and this week it is back to the bottom of that range. If the past cou-ple of weeks are any indication of where the market is going then it is likely the sea-sonal price decline has started. At the same time prices are declining, cow-calf produc-ers will begin sending spring born calves to town at a rapid pace which further depress-es prices. Similar to calf prices, slaughter cow prices continue to trade in a steady range, but they are sitting on the bottom of that range. Alternatively, feeder cattle fu-tures have displayed a little resilience the past couple of weeks and found footing to push prices higher. What does all of this mean? It simply means the cash market is behaving in the seasonal manner that many expected it would despite the futures mar-ket continuing to spew volatility. At the same time, the futures market is telling industry participants that prices are not going to decline to the degree many thought possible a few months earlier.

(Continued on page 2)

Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew P. Griffith Trends for the Week Compared to a Week Ago

Slaughter Cows

$2 lower

Slaughter Bulls

$1 to $2 lower

Feeder Steers

Steady to $3 lower

Feeder Heifers

Steady to $3 lower

Feeder Cattle Index

Wednesday’s index: 151.04

Fed Cattle

The 5-area live price of $107.89 was up $0.72. The dressed price of $169.57 was up $0.26.

Corn

December closed at $3.67 a bush-

el, up 2 cents since last Friday.

Soybeans

November closed at $8.44 a bush-

el, up 1 cent since last Friday.

Wheat

December closed at $5.11 a bush-

el, down 34 cents since last Friday.

Cotton

December closed at $5.11 a bush-el, down 34 cents since last Friday.

2

Market volatility is not good or bad in and of itself, but it can be used to take advantage of strong selling and purchasing oppor-tunities. Producers looking to market cattle this fall may still have a small window to take advantage of a selling opportunity, but the window is closing rapidly. The opportunities that should be considered this fall are spring purchasing opportunities. There will be several stocker producers looking to purchase cattle in the spring months and the futures market may offer an opportunity the next three months to get these cattle pur-chased at a relatively low price. Producers should keep their eyes attuned to market movements and then take action when a favorable purchase price presents itself. ASK ANDREW, TN THINK TANK: A question concerning dry hay quality following long-term storage was asked this week. Unfor-tunately, I was not able to locate any research that evaluated hay quality following five to ten years of storage which means everything here is opinion or what is thought to be common sense. Hay that is stored and protected from weather elements will maintain its quality better than hay exposed to Mother Na-ture. Similarly, dry hay that was baled and stored at the correct moisture will maintain better quality than hay baled and stored at too high of a moisture content. Without having any research to back up any statements, it is assumed dry hay stored out of the weather will maintain its nutrient value for several years. It would seem some degradation of hay would occur but should be fairly marginal. This may be an area that needs a little re-search to provide a better answer. Please send questions and comments to agriff14@utk.edu or send a letter to Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee, 314B Morgan Hall, 2621 Morgan Circle, Knoxville, TN 37996. FRIDAY’S FUTURES MARKET CLOSING PRICES: Friday’s closing prices were as follows: Live/fed cattle –October $109.95 +1.05; December $114.43 +0.70; February $118.25 +0.63 Feeder cattle –September $152.98 +1.20; October $152.95 +1.43; November $152.73 +1.30; January $148.73 +1.15; September corn closed at $3.54 up $0.01 from Thursday.

(Continued from page 1)

Livestock Comments by Dr. Andrew Griffith

Thursday, September 6, 2018

Month Class III Close Class IV Close

Sep 16.29 14.75

Oct 16.42 15.12

Nov 16.41 15.43

Dec 16.28 15.49

Jan 16.09 15.48

Milk Futures

Cattle Hogs

———— Number of head ————

This week (3 days) 118,000 469,000

Last week (4 days) 118,250 463,000

Year ago (3 days) 119,000 451,333

This week as percentage of

Week ago (%) 100% 101%

Year ago (%) 99% 104%

Average Daily Slaughter USDA Box Beef Cutout Value

Choice 1-3 600-900 lbs

Select 1-3 600-900 lbs

———————— $/cwt —-———————

Thursday 208.75 197.83

Last Week 211.73 202.21

Year ago 192.93 190.67

Change from week ago -2.98 -4.38

Change from year ago +15.82 +7.16

3

Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith

Overview Corn and soybeans were up; cotton and wheat were down for the week.

This week corn and soybean prices moved mostly sideways as markets are awaiting the next round of USDA yield and production estimates. National and Tennessee yields are anticipated to be record high for both corn and soy-

beans. Current national average yield estimates from private companies are 177-182 bu/acre for corn and 50-54 bu/acre for soy-beans. Current USDA estimates are national average yield of 178.4 bu/acre and 51.6 bu/acre and for Tennessee 174 bu/acre and 49 bu/acre. A one bushel increase or decrease in national average yield will add or subtract about 82 million bushels of corn or 89 mil-lion bushels of soybeans from total domestic production. The USDA releases the September WASDE on Wednesday (September 12).

December cotton futures have been able to successfully hold the 80½ to 84½ cent trading range. A breakout up or down is likely in the next month based on how the U.S. harvest (and weather) progress. As usual, the market will closely watch production esti-mates out of Texas and weather moving through the Gulf of Mexico during the harvest season. Trade/tariffs remain a wild card for cotton and other agricultural commodities with the potential to dramatically move prices in either direction.

December wheat futures have decreased dramatically since the contract high of $6.13 on August 2 - closing today at $5.11 ¼, a decrease of $1.01 ¾ in one month. Prices have been volatile due mostly to international forces. Reduced Russian wheat production led to fears that export restrictions could be imposed by the Russian government. Political uncertainty and changes to export taxes on agricultural commodities has increased uncertainty in Argentina. Global wheat production will be down, however stocks remain high.

The signup period for USDA payments to producers to help mitigate the decrease in commodity prices, as a result of retaliatory tariffs, is now open. Signup will occur at your local Farm Service Agency (FSA) Service Center. Payments will be based on 2018 pro-duction. Producers are strongly encouraged to keep detailed, accurate, harvest production records for corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat in order to obtain the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) payments that they are eligible for in a timely interval. Details of the MFP signup for Tennessee producers are available at: https://extension.tennessee.edu/publications/Documents/W776.pdf.

Corn

Across Tennessee, average corn basis (cash price-nearby futures price) weakened or remained unchanged at Northwest Barge Points, Upper-middle, and Lower-middle Tennessee and strengthened at Memphis and Northwest Tennessee. Overall, basis for the week ranged from 40 under to 8 under the December futures contract with an average of 25 under at the end of the week. Decem-ber 2018 corn futures closed at $3.65, up 2 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2018 corn futures traded between $3.61 and $3.69. Corn net sales reported by exporters from August 24-30, 2018 were within expectations with net sales of 1.2 mil-lion bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year and 40.7 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the same time period were down 10% compared to last week at 47.6 million bushels. Corn export sales and commitments were 99% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (September 1 to August 31) compared to a 5-year average of 103%. Ethanol production for the week ending August 31 was 1.087 million barrels per day, up 17,000 from the previous week. Ethanol stocks were 22.703 million barrels, up 358,000 barrels. Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec future spreads were 12 and 29 cents, respectively.

(Continued on page 4)

4

Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith

The Crop Progress report estimated corn condition at 67% good-to-excellent and 12% poor-to-very poor; corn dough at 96% com-pared to 92% last week, 91% last year, and a 5-year average of 91%; corn dented at 75% compared to 61% last week, 58% last year, and a 5-year average of 60%; and corn mature at 22% compared to 10% last week, 11% last year, and a 5-year average of 11%. In Tennessee, corn condition was estimated at 74% good-to-excellent and 7% poor-to-very poor; corn dented at 93% compared to 85% last week, 91% last year, and a 5-year average of 90%; corn mature at 47% compared to 27% last week, 57% last year, and a 5-year average of 42%; and corn harvested at 9% compared to 1% last week, 7% last year, and a 5-year average of 5%. In Tennessee, January 2019 corn cash forward contracts averaged $3.67 with a range of $3.35 to $3.87. March 2019 corn futures closed at $3.79, up 2 cents since last Friday. December 2019 corn futures closed at $3.96, up 2 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $4.00 December 2019 Put Option costing 30 cents establishing a $3.70 futures floor.

Soybeans

Average soybean basis weakened or remained unchanged at Northwest Barge Points, Lower-middle, Upper-middle, and Northwest Tennessee and strengthened at Memphis. Basis ranged from 76 under to 48 under the November futures contract at elevators and barge points. Average basis at the end of the week was 57 under the November futures contract. November 2018 soybean futures closed at $8.44, up 1 cent since last Friday. For the week, November 2018 soybean futures traded between $8.34 and $8.51. Net sales reported by exporters were within expectations with net sales of 0.02 million bushels for the 2017/18 marketing year and 24.7 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the same period were down 26% compared to last week at 26.6 million bushels. Soybean export sales and commitments were 103% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2017/18 marketing year (September 1 to August 31), compared to a 5-year average of 103%. Nov/Dec 2018 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.30 at the end of the week.

Nov/Jan and Nov/Nov future spreads were 13 and 55 cents, respectively. The Crop Progress report estimated soybean condition at 66% good-to-excellent and 11% poor-to-very poor; and soybeans dropping leaves at 16% compared to 7% last week, 10% last year, and a 5-year average of 9%. In Tennessee, soybean condition was estimated at 73% good-to-excellent and 5% poor-to-very poor; and soybeans dropping leaves at 9% compared to 3% last week, 11% last year, and a 5-year average of 8%. In Tennessee, Oct/Nov 2018 soybean cash contracts average $7.81 with a range of $7.58 to $8.00. January 2019 soybean futures closed at $8.57, up 1 cent since last Friday. November 2019 soybean futures closed at $8.99, up 1 cent since last Friday. Downside price protection could be achieved by purchasing a $9.00 November 2019 Put Option which would cost 57 cents and set an $8.43 futures floor. Nov/Dec 2019 soybean-to-corn price ratio was 2.27 at the end of the week.

Cotton

Delta upland cotton spot price quotes for September 6 were 79.88 cents/lb (41-4-34) and 81.63 cents/lb (31-3-35). Adjusted World Price (AWP) decreased 0.49 cents to 73.77 cents. Net sales reported by exporters were down from last week at 92,200 bales for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the same time period were 177,300 bales, up 3% from last week. Upland cotton export sales were 61% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2018/19 marketing year (August 1 to July 31), compared to a 5-year average of 40%.

The Crop Progress report estimated cotton condition at 41% good-to-excellent and 33% poor-to-very poor; cotton setting bolls at 96% compared to 91% last week, 96% last year, and a 5-year average of 96%; and cotton opening bolls at 29% compared to 21% last week, 24% last year, and a 5-year average of 26%. In Tennessee, cotton condition was estimated at 89% good-to-excellent and

(Continued on page 5)

5

Crop Comments by Dr. Aaron Smith

1% poor-to-very poor; and cotton bolls opening at 52% compared to 23% last week, 13% last year, and a 5-year average of 18%. December 2018 cotton futures closed at 81.99, down 0.23 cents since last Friday. For the week, December 2018 cotton futures traded between 81.2 and 83.4 cents. Dec/Mar and Dec/Dec cotton futures spreads were 0.41 cents and -4.26 cents, respectively. March 2019 cotton futures closed at 82.4, down 0.18 cents since last Friday. December 2019 cotton futures closed at 77.73, down 0.53 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a 78 cent December 2019 Put Option costing 5.46 cents establishing a 72.54 cent futures floor.

Wheat

In Tennessee, September 2018 cash wheat ranged from $5.15 to $5.67 for the week. Wheat net sales reported by exporters were within expectations with net sales of 14.0 million bushels for the 2018/19 marketing year. Exports for the week were down 29% compared to last week at 10.5 million bushels. Wheat export sales were 34% of the USDA estimated total annual exports for the 2018/19 marketing year (June 1 to May 31), compared to a 5-year average of 51%. The Crop Progress report estimated spring wheat harvested at 87% compared to 77% last week, 87% last year, and a 5-year average of 75%.

December 2018 wheat futures closed at $5.11, down 34 cents since last Friday. December 2018 wheat futures traded between $5.07 and $5.42 this week. December wheat-to-corn price ratio was 1.39. Dec/Mar and Dec/Jul future spreads were 20 cents and 31 cents, respectively. March 2019 wheat futures closed at $5.31, down 34 cents since last Friday. In Tennessee, June/July 2019 wheat cash contracts ranged from $5.47 to $5.67 for the week. July 2019 wheat futures closed at $5.42, down 28 cents since last Friday. Downside price protection could be obtained by purchasing a $5.50 July 2019 Put Option costing 45 cents establishing a $5.05 futures floor.

Additional Information: Links for data presented: U.S. Export Sales - https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/esrd1.html USDA FAS: Weekly Export Performance Indicator – https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrpi.aspx EIA: Weekly ethanol Plant Production - https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wprode_s1_w.htm EIA: Weekly Supply Estimates - https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_a_EPOOXE_sae_mbbl_w.htm Upland Cotton Reports - https://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/epasReports?area=home&subject=ecpa&topic=fta-uc Tennessee Crop Progress - https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Tennessee/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/ U.S. Crop Progress - http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048 USDA AMS: Market News - https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/search-market-news

If you would like further information or clarification on topics discussed in the crop comments section or would like to be added to our free email list please contact me at aaron.smith@utk.edu.

6

Friday, August 31, 2018 — Thursday, September 6, 2018

Commodity Contract Month Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

Soybeans Sep 8.33 ——— 8.32 8.25 8.26

($/bushel) Nov 8.43 ——— 8.44 8.38 8.39

Jan 8.56 ——— 8.57 8.50 8.52

Mar 8.69 ——— 8.69 8.63 8.65

May 8.81 ——— 8.81 8.75 8.77

Jul 8.91 ——— 8.90 8.85 8.87

Corn Sep 3.51 ——— 3.54 3.51 3.53

($/bushel) Dec 3.65 ——— 3.68 3.65 3.66

Mar 3.77 ——— 3.79 3.77 3.78

May 3.84 ——— 3.87 3.84 3.85

Jul 3.90 ——— 3.92 3.90 3.92

Sep 3.91 ——— 3.93 3.91 3.91

Wheat Sep 5.18 ——— 5.02 4.93 4.86

($/bushel) Dec 5.45 ——— 5.31 5.21 5.13

Mar 5.65 ——— 5.51 5.42 5.35

May 5.77 ——— 5.65 5.56 5.49

Jul 5.70 ——— 5.62 5.53 5.47

Soybean Meal Sep 303 ——— 308 306 311

($/ton) Oct 304 ——— 309 307 311

Dec 307 ——— 311 309 314

Jan 307 ——— 310 309 312

Mar 308 ——— 310 309 312

May 308 ——— 310 309 311

Cotton Oct 82.31 ——— 82.78 81.71 81.38

(¢/lb) Dec 82.22 ——— 82.78 81.71 81.30

Mar 82.58 ——— 83.08 82.11 81.73

May 82.97 ——— 83.41 82.48 82.10

Jul 83.36 ——— 83.71 82.83 82.40

Live Cattle Aug 106.80 ——— ——— ——— ———

($/cwt) Oct 108.77 ——— 109.87 109.05 108.90

Dec 112.97 ——— 114.40 113.75 113.72

Feb 116.87 ——— 117.72 117.57 117.62

Apr 117.90 ——— 118.87 118.90 118.90

Feeder Cattle Aug 149.98 ——— ——— ——— ———

($/cwt) Sep 149.45 ——— 151.72 151.72 151.77

Oct 149.12 ——— 151.82 151.47 151.52

Nov 149.00 ——— 151.50 151.57 151.42

Jan 145.80 ——— 147.70 148.02 147.57

Mar 145.15 ——— 146.82 147.32 147.00

Market Hogs Oct 50.42 ——— 51.07 51.97 54.97

($/cwt) Dec 53.40 ——— 55.25 55.17 56.67

Feb 62.87 ——— 64.45 64.17 64.85

Apr 68.47 ——— 69.96 69.70 70.12

May 74.17 ——— 75.22 75.52 75.85

Futures Settlement Prices: Crops & Livestock

7

Cattle Receipts: This week: 4,963 (9) Week ago: 7,875 (10) Year ago: 4,962 (9)

This Week Last Week Year Ago

Low High Weighted Average Weighted Average Weighted Average

—————————————————————— $/cwt ——————————————————————

Steers: Medium/Large Frame #1-2

300-400 lbs 147.00 186.00 164.33 163.24 161.20

400-500 lbs 144.00 173.00 157.58 157.15 150.83

500-600 lbs 135.50 166.00 149.50 148.93 141.22

600-700 lbs 124.00 150.00 139.59 141.39 135.50

700-800 lbs 121.00 140.00 132.60 133.82 132.33

Steers: Small Frame #1-2

300-400 lbs 142.50 152.50 147.49 ——— 135.65

400-500 lbs ——— ——— ——— 134.42 139.56

500-600 lbs 120.00 137.50 129.64 123.87 129.50

600-700 lbs ——— ——— ——— ——— 122.89

Steers: Medium/Large Frame #2-3

300-400 lbs 135.00 160.00 149.04 150.09 148.32

400-500 lbs 135.00 150.00 142.76 144.23 133.91

500-600 lbs 110.00 145.00 131.23 139.29 126.52

600-700 lbs 123.00 142.00 130.56 131.31 125.43

700-800 lbs 120.00 126.00 123.18 122.01 115.10

Holstein Steers

300-400 lbs ——— ——— ——— ——— ———

500-600 lbs ——— ——— ——— ——— ———

700-800 lbs ——— ——— ——— 74.99 ———

Slaughter Cows & Bulls

Breakers 75-80% 46.00 52.27 54.12 60.73 57.50

Boners 80-85% 54.10 54.93 64.40 45.50 64.00

Lean 85-90% 38.00 58.00 45.79 48.12 57.36

Bulls YG 1 72.00 91.50 79.60 81.13 87.75

Heifers: Medium/Large Frame #1-2

300-400 lbs 130.00 169.00 148.52 143.55 136.75

400-500 lbs 121.00 159.00 138.80 139.89 133.97

500-600 lbs 120.00 147.00 131.65 133.71 129.39

600-700 lbs 106.00 132.50 123.56 126.49 125.40

Heifers: Small Frame #1-2

300-400 lbs 125.00 140.00 131.03 ——— ———

400-500 lbs 122.50 135.00 127.97 118.52 125.08

500-600 lbs 106.00 114.00 109.78 119.70 115.36

600-700 lbs ——— ——— ——— ——— ———

Heifers: Medium/Large Frame #2-3

300-400 lbs 114.00 145.00 129.65 134.41 126.12

400-500 lbs 114.00 141.00 125.21 128.91 124.67

500-600 lbs 111.00 132.00 123.27 124.42 119.07

600-700 lbs 109.00 120.00 116.34 121.29 112.79

Prices on Tennessee Reported Livestock Auctions for the week ending September 7, 2018

8

Friday, August 31, 2018 — Thursday, September 6, 2018

Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High

———————–——————————————— $/bushel ———————————————————–———

No. 2 Yellow Soybeans

Memphis 7.90-7.91 ——— 7.91-7.92 7.88-7.90 7.89-7.91

N.W. B.P. ——— ——— 7.79-7.91 7.78-7.90 7.74-7.89

N.W. TN ——— ——— ——— ——— ———

Upper Md. 7.70-7.70 ——— 7.68-7.68 7.64-7.68 7.63-7.69

Lower Md. ——— ——— ——— ——— ———

Yellow Corn

Memphis 3.41-3.48 ——— 3.50-3.58 3.57-3.57 3.56-3.58

N.W. B.P. ——— ——— 3.41-3.48 3.35-3.53 3.31-3.51

N.W. TN 3.31-3.35 ——— 3.35-3.38 3.25-3.38 3.26-3.36

Upper Md. 3.36-3.36 ——— 3.38-3.38 3.35-3.35 3.36-3.36

Lower Md. ——— ——— ——— ——— ———

Wheat

Memphis 5.18-5.30 ——— 5.14-5.14 ——— ———

Prices Paid to Farmers by Elevators

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Tennessee 500-600 lbs. M-1 Steer Prices2017, 2018 and 5-year average

2012/2016 Avg 2017 2018

85

105

125

145

165

185

Tenne ssee 700-800 lbs. M-1 Steers Prices2017, 2018 and 5-year average

2012/2016 Avg 2017 2018

8595

105115125135145155

5-Area Finished Cattle Prices2017, 2018 and 5-year average

2012/2016 Avg 2017 2018

35455565758595

105

Tennessee Slaughter Cow PricesBreakers 75 -80%

2017, 2018 and 5-year average

1.00 2017 2018

9

East Tennessee Livestock Center - September 5, 2018 1 load out of 85 steers; BQA certified producer; est. wt. 810 lbs.; 95% L&M-1s, 5% L&M-2s; medium flesh;100% Black/BWF; $147.50 1 load out of 75 Holstein steers; BQA certified producer; est. wt. 815 lbs.; 95% #1s, 5% #2s; medium flesh; $86.00 1 load out of 58 Holstein steers; est. wt. 940 lbs.; 95% #1s, 5% #2s ; medium flesh; $85.25 Farmers Livestock Graded Holstein, Greeneville, TN Weighted Average Report for Thursday Sep 6, 2018 Cattle Receipts: 529 For complete report: https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nv_ls186.txt

9/4/18 TN Livestock Producers Fayetteville Receipts: 362 (112 graded & grouped) Steers: Med & Lg 1-2 Heifers: Med & Lg 1-2 300-400 lbs 153.00-155.00 300-400 lbs 134.00-144.00 400-500 lbs 400-500 lbs 125.00-129.00 500-600 lbs 138.50-148.00 500-600 lbs 125.00-130.00 600-700 lbs 136.00-143.50 600-700 lbs 120.00 700-800 lbs 130.00-138.00 700-800 lbs 118.00 800-900 lbs 112.00 Bulls: Med & Lg 1-2 400-500 lbs 143.00-149.00 500-600 lbs 130.00-139.00 600-700 lbs 128.00-130.00 9/3/18 Morris Brothers Stockyard, Pikeville, TN Receipts: 127 Last Year: 184 Steers: Heifers: Under 200 lbs 145.00 300-349 lbs 120.00-128.00 300-349 lbs 130.00 350-399 lbs 137.00 400-449 lbs 152.00 400-449 lbs 134.00-135.00 550-599 lbs 120.00-135.00 450-499 lbs 126.00-136.00 500-549 lbs 115.00-126.00 550-599 lbs 121.00-123.00 600-699 lbs 126.00 Bulls: Other: 350-399 lbs 138.00-144.00 Head Cows: 350.00-1050.00 400-449 lbs 130.00-142.00 Cow/Calf Pairs: 860.00-1400.00 450-499 lbs 127.00-138.00 Slaughter Cows (Under 900 lbs): 500-549 lbs 123.00 30.00-49.50 550-599 lbs 112.00-126.00 Slaughter Cows (Over 900 lbs): 600-699 lbs 114.00 43.00-62.00 700-799 lbs 93.00-98.00 Slaughter Bulls (Over 1500 lbs): 82.50

Graded Sales, Video Board Sales, Video Sales & Loads Self-Reported and Self-Graded Markets

Self-Reported and Self-Graded Markets

10

2018 Cow-Calf Production Benchmarks Kris Ringwall, Beef Specialist September 6, 2018

Commercial beef producers joined the “500 Club” in pounds weaned per cow exposed, according to the 2018 Cow Herd Appraisal Performance Software (CHAPS) records.

The new benchmark is 502 pounds and illustrates better under-standing of benchmarks. This knowledge is critical because it allows producers to gauge, adjust and keep track of cattle pro-duction based on long-term benchmarks within the industry.

You cannot change what you do not measure. Measurement of a trait through time helps make active decisions to lower, main-tain or increase that trait within the herd. Begin by knowing the level at which the cow-calf enterprise is functioning.

The NDSU Dickinson Research Extension Center calculates year-ly averages of beef cow herd data from producers. The CHAPS team calculates five-year rolling average benchmarks from herds with at least 50 cows that have been in CHAPS for three years or more. Yearly averages are good, but a rolling five-year average buffers yearly ups and downs in the data.

A review of the 2018 benchmarks is a worthy read because understanding normal, or in this case typical, performance al-lows producers to better understand how to set and guide indi-vidual herd goals. Overall reproductive traits, expressed in per-centages of cows exposed, and some growth traits, expressed in pounds, are presented.

The typical CHAPS producer has 93.7 percent of the cows that were exposed to bulls be pregnant in the fall, with 93.1 percent calving in the spring. In the fall, 91 percent of the cows that were exposed to bulls weaned a calf.

During a typical calving season, 63.2 percent calved during the first 21 days, 87.6 percent during the first 42 days and 96.1 percent within the first 63 days. The average age of the cows was 5.6 years.

Calf age, growth and weaning numbers were as follows: age, 193 days; weight, 557 pounds; and frame score, 5.2. The weight per day of age was 2.9 pounds and the average daily gain was 2.5 pounds.

“Pounds weaned per cow exposed to the bull” is a trait that factors in management and genetics in cattle production. For every cow exposed, CHAPS producers weaned 502 pounds of calf.

Interestingly, benchmarks do not vary very much across years, which is indicative of a mature cow-calf business. Because of

Beef Industry News Featured Article from North Dakota State University: BeefTalk

the maturity of the cow-calf business, cattle producers have developed stable production practices that, in some cases, cross generations of beef producers.

Minor ups and downs may occur, but newsworthy changes are seldom. Some individual operations will experience what one might call Mother Nature trauma, but those operations have little they can do about those events, other than to have an emergency response plan in place. As an aside, that emergency response plan needs practice, so go over those plans at least once a year.

Back to the benchmarks. The good news, although small, is that pounds weaned per cow exposed benchmarks for 2018 reached the “500 Club,” with an average benchmark of 502.

That’s good news because the industry has been on a five-year run of lower pounds weaned per cow exposed. That number was 499 pounds for 2013, 496 pounds for 2014, 495 pounds for 2015, 494 pounds for 2016 and 498 pounds for 2017. These may not seem like huge differences, but the trend is good.

Prior to that, the benchmark for pounds of calf weaned per cow exposed had been quite consistent. Historically (10-plus years ago), the benchmark was 500 pounds for 2005, and 502 pounds for 2006 and 2007. In 2008, the benchmark for pounds weaned per cow exposed was again at 500 pounds, and it was at 507 pounds for 2009, 505 pounds for 2010, 503 pounds for 2011 and 501 pounds for 2012.

Interestingly, the average producer has not been able to sus-tain the 500-pound threshold in recent years, so I guess we will wait to see if the “500 Club” pound mark holds.

Has the industry changed much? Not really. Is 500 pounds the right number? Well, each producer has to determine what fits the operation.

However, CHAPS has been calculating the number since the mid-1980s, and after many years of evaluations of CHAPS herds, 500 pounds is doable and a logical goal. A tweak could be that those producers with lower input may accept a little fewer pounds at weaning, but again, each producer needs to do what is right for that person’s operation and checkbook.

But the discussion today is simply benchmarks. And as stated earlier, benchmarks allow a producer to measure managerial changes on the operation.

Fall is a good time to review the status of the beef operation as the calves come home. Sitting on the fence and watching the cattle walk by is good, but numbers are needed to offer the details for a proper evaluation. Do you know your pounds of calf produced per cow exposed?

Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics 314 Morgan Hall • 2621 Morgan Circle

arec.tennessee.edu USDA / Tennessee Department of Agriculture Market News Service http://www.tennessee.gov/agriculture/article/ag-farms-market-news 1-800-342-8206