Upload
others
View
6
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
TEP Integrated Resource P lan Load Forecast
Greg Strang, Lead Forecast AnalystPublic Meeting
May 20, 2020
Forecast Overview
o Customer, energy, and peak forecasto The forecast period runs from 2020-2035o Wherever possible, the forecast relies on sound statistical
practice and shuns personal judgmentso Bottom up forecasto Forecast accounts for Weather, Economic, and Seasonal
variableso Projection made in early December
2
Changes From Prior IRP, Weather Trend Adjustment
3
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
Tem
pera
ture
°F
Rolling Annual Average 10 Year Rolling Average 30 Year Rolling Average Trend
Changes from Prior IRP, Electric Vehicles
4
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
US Total New Electric Vehicle Sales
Vendor 1 Vendor 2 Vendor 3 Vendor 4 TEP Average
Residential Use Per Customer by Temperature
5
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
kWh
January February March April May June July August September October November December
TEP Residential Customer Growth
6
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year over Year Change in Customers TEP
95th Percentile Confidence Bands
TEP Residential Use Per Customer Forecast
7
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Weather Normalized Annual Use Per Customer (kWh)
1% annual growth heavily influenced by the electrification of the transportation sector
-1.2% annual growth heavily influenced by the Great Recession, Energy Efficiency and Distributed Generation1.6% annual growth
TEP Total Sales
8
TEP Peak Forecast
9
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
300020
05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
TEP
Reta
il Pe
ak D
eman
d (M
W)
1/10 Year Confidence Band
Historical Forecast Performance
o “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”--Danish Proverb
o The Company evaluates forecast performance on a monthly basis
o Through this process we have identified what are the causes of the majority of forecast error—In the medium term, weather drives the forecast variance—In the long term, errors in economic forecasts drive the variance
10
IRP Forecast Projection
11
First Economic Re-Projections
12
Most Recent Economic Projections
13