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Terrorism: Are we ready?
Dr Dave Sloggett
34 Mass Casualty Attacks Prevented in the UK Since September 11th
Hezbollah’s increasing international footprint
152 Terrorist Attacks in Europe in 2013: 63 France, 33 Spain and 35 UK
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Mehra Naval Base
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The Power of Imagery
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Taimour Abdulwahab al-Abdaly
Stockholm: December 2010
The problem of the Lone Wolf
Central Grievance: The Prophet Muhammad Cartoons
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State of the Union Address January 2014: President Obama said “Al Qaeda is taking root in new places around the world”
“Cyber Jihad”
Metastasis
Nebula: “Fuzzy’ Hazy, Extended”
29th May United States, French & Algerian Special Forces in Action along Western Libya Border
Country May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
Trend
Syria 325 521 606 491 325
Iraq 284 406 445 419 398
Afghanistan 67 92 94 58 105
Pakistan 74 86 73 115 141
India 52 99 71 63 79
Yemen 34 44 52 57 62
Libya 30 22 49 53 41
Egypt 25 33 32 32 60
Somalia 16 25 29 41 28
Nigeria 20 16 18 15 16
Central African
Republic
5 4 8 10 13
Mali 3 5 6 8 2
Sudan 25 28 52 37 30
Situation in Libya has dramatically worsened
Connections with UK Nigerian Diaspora?
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Month Number of Attacks
November 2012 1408
December 2012 1122
January 2013 1181
February 2013 1316
March 2013 1568
April 2013 1541
May 2013 1680
June 2013 1589
July 2013 1764
August 2013 1542
September 2013 1665
October 2013 1657
November 2013 1681
December 2013 1531
January 2014 1503
February 2014 1645
March 2014 1770
April 2014 1526
New areas will maintain upward pressure on figures
Western European Analysis
Year Total Reports
2007 603
2008 679
2009 1075
2010 1105
2011 959
2012 813
2013 820
2014 217 Latest May Analysis: 1117
Context of the Analysis
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Mehdi Nemmouche; 29
“We have another Merah”
Brussels Police Spokesman, May 2014
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18 Lack of side effects being experienced by first responders in some of the incidents
Scenes that help recruitment
Improvised Chemical Weapons
19 Deft use of Social Media to Spread a Narrative
Al Qaeda related groups are using the widest possible spread of social media
Why Wait? Its an Obligation
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Dr Abbas Khan: 32 year old Orthopaedic Surgeon One of five men from a Mosque in Portsmouth in Syria
Ifthekar Jarman
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Jihad with “an iPad, hair gel and Kit Kats
Western Jihadists in Syria on Social Media: Twitter; Tumble; Ask.FM
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“80 Austrian Combatants in Syria”
Oesterreich, Feb 2014
Two fifteen year-olds have become France’s youngest ever Jihadists
British Media, 18th January 2014
Charaf-Din Aberouz (27) & Zohab Ifzal (24) “had barely stepped foot on Pakistani soil before they were arrested”
Le Figaro, September 2013
“The TEK knows of approximately a dozen Hungarian citizens who might have attended one of the known terrorist training camps
Magyar Nemzet, 27th June 2013
“German Jihadist scene moves from Afghan-Pakistani Border to Syria”
Sueddeutsche Zeitung, 7th February 2014
“local extremist Muslim groups expanding”
Dagbladet, 2nd November 2013
23 700 Frenchman
“About 30 Bulgarian citizens are fighting in Syria for Al Qaeda”
Trud, 4th February 2014
220 German Nationals
170 from Kosovo
Some commentators put the number of Europeans in Syria at around 5,000-7,000
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Abu Talha
Dennis Cuspert
Use of Religious battle songs to glorify Jihad: Nasheeds
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German Salafist: Denis Cuspert – Battle Song August 2013
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Abu Suleman al-Britani; 41 years old
Reports of Danish, French, Dutch, German and an America Suicide Bombers
Month Total VBIED/SVBIED Ratio VBIED/ SVBIED Dead Wounded
January 2013 12 10/2 103 100
February 2013 16 12/4 219 399
March 2013 10 4/6 16 10
April 2013 3 2/1 14 103
May 2013 3 3/0 15 0
June 2013 7 5/2 60 80
July 2013 12 10/2 54 85
August 2013 14 8/6 53 64
September 2013 14 11/3 58 80
October 2013 7 4/3 125 30
November 2013 9 1/8 51 112
December 2013 0 0 0 0
Total 107 70/37 768 1063
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The Consequences: Barbarity and Extreme Cruelty
The actions of those involved verge on the depraved
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Jihadists are thinking in terms of decades
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Where might this occur next? And how might we predict the form the attack might take?
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The next attack will be a surprise
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Not a conveyor belt
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Brotherhood & Belonging
