TERSYN (Strasbourg)

Spatial Scenarios for the European Territory:Identification of new territorial challenges

Jacques ROBERT

EPP-ED HEARINGA NEW REGIONAL POLICY:

INNOVATIVE IDEAS FOR THE POST-2013 REFORM

Brussels 8 November 2007

Before looking at the future: existing disparities

Characteristics of the scenario project

Main objective: Awareness-raising about new territorial challenges, search of appropriate policy responses and revisiting issues related to the debate cohesion/competitiveness

Tool: Showing various possibilities for the long-term evolution (2030) of the European territory

Approach: Two series of scenarios:1. Large number of thematic, exploratory scenarios related to driving

forces taken separately2. Small number of integrative territorial scenarios around the policy

orientations of cohesion and competitiveness

Method: Combination of qualitative/speculative and quantitative foresight investigations

Examples of exploratory, thematic scenarios

European borders open to immigration Growing socio-cultural tensions and insufficient

integration policies More investments in motorways Rural evolution in a context of open markets and

reduced CAP support Climate change: repairing instead of preventing Europe after oil peaking Europe as a market place: EU widening (40 EU

member countries)

What trends show: Population ageing

Impacts of progressing globalisation

New segments of the European economy subject to external competition (high-tech products, agri-products, services)

Stronger territorial concentration of the benefits of globalisation; increasing number of regions negatively affected;

Handicap of the fragmentation of the European economy (stronger sensitiveness to external mergers; risk of out-migration of decision centres and high-level business functions

European neighbourhood under stronger pressure: demographic pressure from south and south-east; demographic depression in the east; intensification of traffic flows and needs for infrastructure development; economic cooperation/competition and integration of economic systems; European energy dependence (Russia, North Africa)

Territorial impacts of the new energy paradigm

• Location of energy-intensive activities;• Evolution of mobility; substitution through telecom services;• Evolution of settlements (compact cities?)• Opportunities for regions with renewable energy sources• Opportunities for regions developing new energy technologies• Negative impacts on the accessibility of remote regions;• Likely positive impacts on the urban environment (hydrogen technologies)• Risks related to: the revival of nuclear energy; the competition between food

and energy production in rural areas; environmental damages resulting from intensive energy-related agriculture and forestry.

Territorial impacts of climate change

Structural impacts:- drought in southern Europe (impacts on the economy, the environment and the production of hydro-electricity)- mountain regions dependent upon winter tourism;- potential positive impacts on the northern half of Europe (new opportunities for rural areas and for winter tourism in the Nordic countries)

Impacts of natural hazards: river valleys, coastal areas, forest areas in southern Europe;

Less prosperous regions have less resources to allocate to prevention and mitigation measures

Transport challenges

• Further intensification of traffic flows; saturation of main corridors; transfer of flows to secondary networks

• Significant programmes of motorway construction being carried out or programmed (environmental impact? Coherence with the new energy paradigm?)

• Strong development of air traffic (low cost companies; positive impacts on the accessibility of remote regions; strong dependence upon energy prices; environmental impacts?)

• Low progress of rail freight traffic and insufficient part played by maritime traffic

• Progress of the HST network: contributes to the expansion of the pentagon

Scenarios’ features

The European backbone: areas of concentration of flows and activities

Future territorial challenges and structural policies

• Many of the identified future territorial challenges will be significant for the less-favoured regions, both in terms of problems and potentialities

• Resources are necessary for: attracting retirees, counteracting economic marginalisation and out-migration, developing prevention and mitigation measures against natural hazards, drawing benefits from renewable energy sources, developing efficient measures of socio-economic and cultural integration

• While the Strategic Guidelines and the Funds Regulations have only partially addressed the whole range of emerging territorial challenges, there is a need to consider them comprehensively in the implementation of structural policies (2007-2013) and in the argumentation for a continuation of Structural Policies after 2013

Future territorial challenges and structural policies (follow-up)

•While it is presently considered that all development forces are concentrating on metropolitan areas, it would not be wise to neglect in future the development potentialities of a number of rural areas (renewable energy production, residential economy etc.) which can contribute to global European competitiveness;

•The promotion and networking of metropolitan areas in less developed countries and regions will not be possible without substantial structural policies. These should be in future more targeted towards the individual territorial potentials of the regions concerned;

•It is rather satisfactory to observe that the new territorial challenges identified in the ESPON Scenario project have largely been taken over in the Fourth Cohesion Report as well as in the speeches of high-level representatives of the European Commission