“Testing the Waters”

Self-Announce 1+ year Prior(February 2007)

Candidates of the Past

• Most candidates for president are:o War heroes:

o George Washington, Dwight Eisenhowero Former governors:

o George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, and F.D.R.

o Former members of Congress who were also V.P.’s: o Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson, and Harry Truman

• Less common:o Elected while or right after serving as senator:

John Kennedy and Barack Obama

Money & Presidential Elections

• Presidential primaries: public and private contributionso Federal matching funds for all individual

donations of $250 or less o Gives candidates an incentive to raise money

from small donorso Can decline public primary funding:

2004: Bush, Kerry & Deano Government can also give lump-sum amounts to

help parties cover convention costs

Money & Presidential Elections

• Presidential general elections: mostly public money in the pasto Full funding for presidential general campaigns

(major parties only)o Barack Obama altered this trend by privately

funding his general election campaigns o Partial funding for minority candidates if they

achieved 5% of the popular vote in the previous election 2000: Nader & Buchanan

Organization

• Hire a staff and advisors: lawyers, secretaries, fundraisers, speech writers, communications staff (press secretary), pollsters, etc.

• Attract volunteers in each state

Strategy & Themes• Tone: positive or negative

• Theme: “trust” “it’s morning in America again” “stay the course” “we need to change” “compassionate conservatism” “yes we can”

• Timing: when to spend money and utilize resources Political Unknown: everything will go into early primaries and caucuses Frontrunner: spend & dominate early or hold back some reserves for the

long haul?

• Target: who are the swing voters that will change their minds?

Primaries vs. Caucuses

•Grandville High School is bringing in food from an outside restaurant on Friday. •You as consumers must choose which restaurant you want.

•Nominations? (Up to 4).

Caucuses & Primaries First Up: Iowa & New Hampshire

• While watching each video clip, write down 1 to 2 details related to Iowa or caucusing that would be good evidence if you were given an FRQ question on this topic. o How to Caucus, Clinton Styleo CBS Caucus How-to

• Types of Primaries:o Openo Closedo Blanketo Runoff

Frontloading

The Conventions

Super Delegates: The Democratic Wild Cards

• Democratic super delegates are state party leaders, national party leaders and former Democratic presidents who are free to vote for any candidate they choose even before their own state primary or caucus.

• Super delegates can select whichever candidate they wish for the nomination and they are not bound to their candidate until the convention.

• These delegates can change their mind as many times as they want before states even begin voting and one candidate emerges as the nominees.

General Election CampaignObama v. Romney ‘12

• Campaign Issues:o Position issue: Rival candidates have opposing

views on a question that also divides the voters. Example: tax cuts vs. tax increases for those earning over

$250,000 per year

o Valence issue: A way of evaluating the strength of a candidate’s position on an issue on which everyone generally agrees. Example: reducing the debt and deficit

o Position Issues have become more important in recent years because of television.

General Election

6November 2012

And the Winner is...

Electoral Options: How to pick a president

Option 1: Popular vote

Option 2: Direct Election by Congress

Option 3: Allow state assemblies (a.k.a. legislatures) decide

The CompromiseELECTORAL COLLEGE:

- Assembles every 4 years

- Made up of representatives from each state

- Electoral vote distribution: -- Number of senators + number of representatives

- Originally, electors cast a vote for two separate candidates.  

-- The person receiving the most votes become president and the person receiving the second-highest vote total would be elected vice president.

-- The Twelfth Amendment changed this system.  Each elector casts one distinct vote for a Presidential and Vice Presidential team.  

What prompted  a change in how electoral votes were cast? 

The Election of 1800

The Election of 1800

• Democratic-Republicans:o Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr

• Federalists:o John Adams and Charles Pinckney

• Fierce partisan battle ultimately leads to a win for the Democratic-Republicans

Except for one small, yet not so small problem…

The Election of 1800

• Electors had not specified whether their votes for Jefferson and Burr were presidential or vice presidential.

• Burr received the same number of votes as Jefferson.

• In the event of a tie…

The Election of 1800

• The House of Representatives gets to decide.

• Six days and 36 separate votes later, Jefferson is elected.

Winner-take-all System • In 48 of the 50 states there is a winner-take-all system that

awards all of the state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate that receives the most popular votes.

• Even in a very close race, the candidate who receives the most popular votes within the state will receive every electoral vote, so up to 49 percent of the votes in a winner-take-all state do not ‘‘count.’’

• Technically, voters elect a delegate from the candidate’s political party called an elector, not a candidate, but electors almost always follow the will of the people.

• Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not use a winner-take-all system. In these states, the electoral votes are split based on a candidate’s statewide performance and his performance in each congressional district. The Maine and Nebraska state legislatures vote on how to apportion their electoral votes.

Former Pres…I mean Former Vice President Al Gore

• The election of 2000 highlighted a serious problem with the Electoral College when Al Gore won the popular vote, but George Bush won the electoral vote and was elected president. o Many Americans felt that the

Electoral College usurped the will of the people.

Impact of the Electoral College

• How it could happen…o Imagine it’s Al Gore v. George W. Bush in the

World Series of Baseball: 7 games determine the winner of the series

6

5

Game 7

35556544Bush

384104465Gore

RunsGame 6Game 5Game 4Game 3Game 2Game 1

What’s so special about California & Texas?

• Another criticism of the Electoral College is that large states have too much influence, since they can cast more electoral votes. o By winning 11 of the largest states, a candidate

would receive 230 of the 270 votes required for election.

o Small states often feel ignored by candidates since they generally focus their campaigning on larger, more influential states.

Impact of the E.C.

• Many people argue that the Electoral College system affects voter turnout in states that have a strong Republican or Democrat majority. o For example, Republican voters in a staunchly

Democratic state might not vote if they feel that their votes will have no effect on the outcome of the election.

• Another problem is that in some very small states voters have a disproportionately large influence due to the three electoral vote minimum.

• Any change to the Electoral College would require what?

Benefits • Even in close elections it is relatively easy to determine a

winner. o Despite the notoriety of the 2000 election, recounts and disputed

elections are uncommon. • The Electoral College also allows a president to receive a

mandate from the people, as every president must receive a majority of electoral votes to be elected.

• Another advantage of the Electoral College is that it maintains a two-party system. o If an election was determined by popular vote, there would likely be

several candidates and voters would have a difficult time identifying their preferred candidate. In an election with multiple candidates, the winner would be unlikely to receive a majority of votes.