TexFire: Texas Wildfire Response Projectbarr/4395/history/Presentations... · Project Definition • SMU research project for the creation of an aerial response system to efficiently

Texas Wildfire Response Project TexFire Initiative II: Location Analysis

and Business Case

May 8, 2014 Jorge Gonzalez and Shawn Minnich

Advisors: Dr. Dick Barr and Mr. Bill Plummer

Texas Wildfires

• Why is it important? • High Season in 2011 • 31,453 fires • 4,011,709 acres • 38,962 homes saved • 2,947 homes destroyed • 13,058 other structures saved • 2,804 other structures destroyed

Background April 19, 2011, Strawn TX (South of Possum Kingdom Lake)

Bastrop Case or The Perfect Storm Started Sept. 4 Ended Sept. 30

Devoured 32,000 acres 1700 Home & Businesses

$325M in Damage 2 Deaths

The Problems • There are fires that could have been prevented or

extinguished sooner • What aircraft do we use? • Where to base our SEATs • How much will it cost us to set up this project? • Is the project going to work?

Project Definition

• SMU research project for the creation of an aerial response system to efficiently assist with the suppression of wildfires within the State of Texas.

• Currently, the State of Texas: – Limited aerial firefighting capability – Relies on national assets for aerial wildfire suppression There is an opportunity to establish an aerial initial wildfire attack unit capable of quicker response times resulting in less wildfire damage.

Project Goals

• Research to find fire history and understand wildfires • Understand and Implement the current process • Find an aircraft suitable for fire fighting • Build a model to allocate the SEATs • Build a Business Case for the project • Prove that the project will in fact work

Aerial Firefighting Aircraft Procurement and Procedures

• TX does not own assets • Numerous agencies involved • 1 day minimum response

Firefighting Aircraft Types – Pro’s and Con’s

…and the recommended choice: SEATs

• Single Engine Air Tanker • Air Tractor AT-802F • Manufactured in Olney, TX

• 200mph when loaded • 4 hour endurance • 800 gallon capacity

• 4180 flight hours, 2011

Airfield Requirements and Locations For Firefighting Ops: • 3000’ RWY length • Ready access to fuel

and water • Priority over other air

traffic

Airfields to the right have TFS SEAT plans in place For Basing: • Hangar availability • Maintenance space • Administrative space

Understanding the Wildfire Threat

Many factors contribute to Texas wildfires

• Diverse landscape • Wide range of surface fuels • Diverse population density • Extended draught conditions – since 2010 • High wind speeds - 20-30mph common • Ignition sources – Lightning, Equipment, People

Texas Vegetation

*TxWARP - Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS) Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal

Texas Surface Fuels


Characteristic Rate of Spread


Texas Wildfire Threat


Wildfire Ignition Density and Cause (2005-2009 Source: TxWARP*)


Large Wildfires vs. Population Density (2001-2009 Source: TxWARP)


Facility Location Model in GAMS

• Mixed Integer Program • CPLEX Solver • 5 primary equations

• Combined run for Distance Only & Distance+TorchScore

• Runtime - 18 seconds

Facility Location Model • Optimized for Distance

• Relative uniform distribution

Facilities Opened

Optimized Airfield Selection

Counties Serviced

2 CLL – College Station 142

SNK - Snyder 112 3 PSN – Palestine 84

PVW – Plainview 80 T82 – Fredricksburg 90

4 AMA – Amarillo 35 BPG – Big Spring 69 GVT – Greenville 72 VCT - Victoria 78

Facility Location Model • Optimized for Distance + TorchScore • TorchScore combines

population density and wildfire threat to optimize placement

• Not as uniform-but that’s OK

Facilities Opened

Optimized Airfield Selection

Counties Serviced

2 CDS – Childress 170

EBG – Edinburg 84 3 AMA – Amarillo 61

EBG – Edinburg 44 MWL – Mineral Wells 149

4 AMA – Amarillo 37 EBG – Edinburg 43 MWL – Mineral Wells 127 ODO - Odessa 47

Large Wildfires vs. Population Density (2001-2009 Source: TxWARP)


Previous and New Aircraft Basing Assumption • Maximized statewide

coverage • Minimized statewide

response time

• Maximimized Coverage and Minimized Response Times

• Optimal Number of Facilities

• Fire Damage Accounted

Business Case • Mostly

provided by similar businesses and aircraft dealerships.

• Bastrop case insurance expenses up to date sum up to over $350 million.

• If project is implemented, 44% reduction of damage can pay the project 14.36 times!

Simulation Against 2009 Fires

• 19 Fires: > 500 acres, < 32 hours actual contain time, and no air tanker use

• 1 aircraft • Included “Time to Initial Drop” analysis and decision • Repeated drop cycles up to actual control time • Used values to determine reduction in acres burned

• Less Acres Burned = Less $ Damages

Simulation Against 2009 Fires Results • 54% average reduction acres burned per fire • 48% reduction of over all acres burned (22,600 to 11, 700) • Transit Time – avg. 1.2hrs Drop Cycle – avg. 0.7hrs

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

0 5 34 57 80 80 84 111

117

149

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182

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229

257

288

317

341

350

373

Acre

s B

urne

d

Cumulative Burn Hours

2009 0 & 1 Day Cumulative Acres Burned Linear (Unattended) Linear (Actual Acres Burned) Linear (Simulated Acres Burned w/ 1 aircraft)

Conclusions Positives • SEATS will help reduce the wildfire impact • Avg. 1hr response much more ideal than 1 day • Feasible solution

Potential Issues • High start-up costs / Funding • High use / Low Use years

– No fires are a good thing! Unless you’re in the firefighting business – Need Alternative uses

• Current SEAT contracting structure • Concurrence, coordination, cooperation, and support from state

agencies will be crucial

Alternate Uses?

• Can aircraft be reconfigured for multi-purpose use? • Aerial fire fighting • Reforestation efforts • Agricultural spraying • West Nile spraying • Border protection/surveillance

Questions? Brian Covish, waves to fire bombers from the roof of his home on Cedar

Lane in the Blue Bonnet Acres subdivision west of Bastrop, Texas on

Monday, September 05, 2011.

(AP Photo/Austin American-Statesman, RODOLFO GONZALEZ)

Documents

TexFire: Texas Wildfire Response Projectbarr/4395/history/Presentations... · Project Definition • SMU research project for the creation of an aerial response system to efficiently