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THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES (THAILAND)
VGI Global Media
3QFY16 net profit down 22.9% y‐y, slightly beating forecast
THAILAND | SET | MEDIA | COMPANY VISIT BLOOMBERG VGI TB l REUTERS VGI.BK
3QFY16 net profit down 22.9% y‐y, a tad above estimate VGI reported 3QFY16 net profit of Bt232mn, down 22.9% y‐y. The quarterly profit topped our estimated Bt227mn. Revenue from sales and services dropped 34.2% to Bt520mn due to: 1) high base effect as VIG had recorded a Bt247mn ad revenue from modern trade segment but it already terminated the modern trade ad media unit, 2) a 8.2% decline in BTS ad revenue to Bt453mn as ad space utilization rate in the BTS SkyTrain system shrank despite higher revenue from leases and additionally operating seven stations, 3) a 28% rise in office building ad revenue as the company’s ad media in office building increased by 103 to 123 buildings, and 4) a 106.2% jump in ad revenue from other media as VGI is media sales representative for MIDAS. Operating cost fell 5.12% y‐y in a lack of high‐cost modern trade media amid effective control in other media. Consequently, gross margin rose to 65.5% from 63.5% in 3QFY15. SG&A expense dropped 29.8% along with lower revenue and an absence of high‐cost modern trade media. 4QFY16 earnings to face seasonal headwinds, revenue seen down but profit seen robust growth in a lack of provision; FY16 forecast revised down Ad revenue from office building is expected to pick up as a number of its office building portfolio increased to 130 at end‐January (targeting 170 at end‐December’16 and 200 by end‐fiscal 2017 ending March) and VGI has offered special packages or ad production for its new addition Charmchuri Square (effective from January 1) bundled with ad media at Empire Tower in a bid to attract advertisements. Furthermore, the additional seven operating BTS stations should help boost the top line. Even so, a lack of ad revenue from modern trade, combined with seasonal effect and a cancellation of three large LCD screens out of four at the Victory Monument, would drag total ad revenue down this quarter. Net profit however is expected to grow significantly due to high base effect in 4QFY15 when VGI set aside Bt269mn provisions for an early termination of ad media contract with Big C and minimum revenue guarantee for MACO, which brought net profit down to Bt15mn. To reflect downbeat ad revenue outlook, we cut our FY16 revenue from sales and service estimate to Bt2,131mn and net profit projection to Bt939mn from earlier Bt993mn. FY17 net profit to grow 14.8%, ‘NEUTRAL’ rating maintained with FY17 target price of Bt4 Office building ad revenue is forecasts to grow at a robust pace in April’16‐March’17 given rising number of office buildings and its special ad packages offered to customers, which would push ad space utilization rate on BTS system higher, despite a potential increase in cost. A number of tenants in the latest additions of BTS stations will likely boost its rental income, while other ad media appears to fare better given a full‐year revenue recognition and loss provision for minimum guarantee to MACO is expected to decrease at a significant pace with its new sales strategy. Furthermore, its collaboration with Rabbit Card to explore online ad media is scheduled to launch in the next two months. Based on the assumptions, we forecast a 9.4% rise in FY17 revenue to Bt2,332mn and a 14.8% growth in net profit to Bt1,078mn. Using sum‐of‐the‐parts, we revise our FY17 target price up to Bt4 but our ‘NEUTRAL’ rating still stands due to limited upside after VGI shares gained.
Ref. No.: CO2016_0092
Closing Price(Bt) 4.00
Target Price(Bt) 4.00 (+3%)
COMPANY DATA
O/S Shares (mn) : 6,864
Market Cap. (Btmn) :
Market Cap. (USDmn) :
52‐WK Hi/Lo (Bt) : 6.45/3.44
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) : 6.85
Par Value (Bt) : 0.10
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)
1. BTS Group 73.8
2. Thai NVDR Co., Ltd. 2.2
3. State Street Bank Europe Ltd. 2.1
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
1MTH 3MTH 1YR
ABS 8% 8% ‐35%
REL TO SET INDEX 7% 18% ‐20%
PRICE VS SET INDEX
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
KEY FINANCIALS
FYE Mar FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Sales(Btmn) 3,149 2,963 2,131 2,332
Net Profit(Btmn) 1,146 838 939 1,078
EPS (Bt) 0.33 0.12 0.14 0.16
P/E (X) 12.1 33.3 29.2 25.0
BVPS (Bt) 0.57 0.26 0.34 0.38
P/B (X) 7.0 15.4 11.8 10.5
DPS (Bt) 0.31 0.04 0.10 0.12
Dividend Yield (%) 7.8 0.9 2.5 3.0
ROE (%) 60.71 44.81 43.63 41.00
Source: Company, PSR Est.
**Multiples and yields are based on latest closing price
VALUATION METHOD
SOTP
Siam Tiyanont
Securities Investment Analyst #17970
Tel: 66 2 635 1700 # 483
02 February 2016
27,457
771
15 July 2015
Neutral (Maintain)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Feb‐13 Feb‐14 Feb‐15 Feb‐16
VGI TB EQUITY SETI (rebased)
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 2 | P a g e
Corporate Governance ‐2015
ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTC
EASTW EGCO GRAMMY HANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE
KKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINT MONO NKI PHOL PPS
PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMART SAMTEL
SAT SC SCB SCC SE‐ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCO
TKT TMB TOP VGI WACOAL
AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIP
ASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY BBL BDMS BECL BKI BLA
BMCL BOL BROOK BWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNT
COL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTA DEMCO ECF EE ERW
GBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICC ICHI
INET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBK
MC MEGA MFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGC
OISHI OTO PAP PDI PE PG PJW PM PPP PR
PRANDA PREB PT PTG Q‐CON QH RS S & J SABINA SAMCO
SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMT
SNP SPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWC
SYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANI
THIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TK TKS TMI TMILL
TMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUE
TSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWFP
TWS UAC UT UV VNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO
2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAH
AMARIN AP APCO AQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTY
BEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHI BKD BTNC CBG CGD
CHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSC CSP
CSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIRE
FOCUS FORTH FPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLAND
GLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECH IEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCP
ITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGI KKC KTIS
KWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJOR
MAKRO MATCH MATI MBKET M‐CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERN
MOONG MPG MSC MTI MTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYT
OCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDG PF PICO PL
PLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCI
RCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCN
SCP SEAOIL SIRI SKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCG
SPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPI SUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEX
TAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TIC TIW
TLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMI
UP UPF UPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WIN
XO
Score Range
< 50%
50‐59%
60‐69%
70‐79%
80‐89%
90‐100%
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)
regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company
l isted on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative disclosure to the
public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The results, therefore, is from
the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai
Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that data. Phil l ip
Securities (Thailand) of securities company does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of
such survey result.
No logo given
Number of Logo
Results Presentation
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 3 | P a g e
Industry Group Name Sector Name Sector Index
Agro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribusiness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOOD
Consumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOME
Personal Products & Pharmaceuticals PERSON
Financials [FINCIAL] Banking BANK
Finance & Securities FIN
Insurance INSUR
Industrials [INDUS] Automotive AUTO
Industrial Materials & Machinery IMM
Packaging PKG
Paper & Printing Materials PAPER
Petrochemicals & Chemicals PETRO
Steel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materials CONMAT
Construction Services CONS
Property Development PROP
Property Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Util ities ENERG
Mining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMM
Media & Publishing MEDIA
Health Care Services HELTH
Tourism & Leisure TOURISM
Professional Services PROF
Transportation & Logistics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRON
Information & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation
> 15% BUY
> 5% ‐ 15% ACCUMULATE / TRADING BUY
> 0% ‐ 5% NEUTRAL
0 <= SELL
Remarks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors l ike (but
not l imited to) a stock's risk reward profi le, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of
stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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