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Thailand Goes Nuclear? Considerations and Costs. 13 August 2007. Sheila Bijoor [email protected] PALANG THAI. Outline. History of nuclear energy Why is nuclear energy back? Greenhouse gas emissions Generation costs New technology Nuclear proliferation Safety and security - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Sheila BijoorSheila [email protected]@palangthai.org
PALANG THAIPALANG THAI
Thailand Goes Thailand Goes Nuclear? Nuclear?
Considerations and CostsConsiderations and Costs
13 August 200713 August 2007
OutlineOutline►History of nuclear energyHistory of nuclear energy
►Why is nuclear energy back?Why is nuclear energy back? Greenhouse gas emissionsGreenhouse gas emissions Generation costsGeneration costs New technologyNew technology Nuclear proliferationNuclear proliferation Safety and securitySafety and security Radioactive wasteRadioactive waste
► Trends in Thai political historyTrends in Thai political history
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
History of GlobalHistory of GlobalNuclear Power IndustryNuclear Power Industry
Rohde, Robert A. Global Warming Art Project.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Power_History.png Data Source: International Atomic Energy Agency. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2. (2006)
Rohde, Robert A. Global Warming Art Project.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Power_History.png Data Source: International Atomic Energy Agency. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2. (2006)
1970-1980’s: Dramatic growth in capacity
Rohde, Robert A. Global Warming Art Project.
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Power_History.png Data Source: International Atomic Energy Agency. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2. (2006)
1970-1980’s: Dramatic growth in construction
DECREASE
Over 2/3 of all nuclear plants ordered after 1970 were cancelled.1
1 50 Years of Nuclear Energy (PDF). International Atomic Energy Agency. Retrieved on 2006-11-09.
2 Rohde, Robert A. Global Warming Art Project. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Power_History.png Data Source: International Atomic
Energy Agency. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2. (2006)
- Rising economic costs - Nuclear accidents 1
- Falling fossil fuel prices - Radiation- Nuclear proliferation - Nuclear waste- Failures
1 The Rise and Fall of Nuclear Power. Public Broadcasting Service. Retrieved on June 28, 2006.
2 Rohde, Robert A. Global Warming Art Project. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Nuclear_Power_History.png Data Source: International Atomic
Energy Agency. Nuclear Power Reactors in the World, Reference Data Series No. 2. (2006)
Nuclear loses popularityNuclear loses popularity2
Three Mile
Island
Chernobyl
Nuclear TodayNuclear Today► 435 commercial 435 commercial
nuclear reactors in nuclear reactors in 30 countries30 countries
► 210 TWh increase 210 TWh increase over the last five over the last five yearsyears
► In 2006, 2658 billion In 2006, 2658 billion kWh total capacitykWh total capacity
“Nuclear Power in the World Today.” World Nuclear Association. (2007) http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf01.html
Nuclear TomorrowNuclear Tomorrow
As of 2007:As of 2007:► 32 reactors under construction32 reactors under construction► 25,073 MWe (electrical energy)25,073 MWe (electrical energy)► Asia is the only region where nuclear power is growingAsia is the only region where nuclear power is growing
18 of 32 under construction are in Asia18 of 32 under construction are in Asia“Nuclear Power in the World Today.” World Nuclear Association. (2007) http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf01.html
Data: “Nuclear Power in the World Today.” World Nuclear Association. 2007
Proposed Nuclear ReactorsProposed Nuclear Reactors
As of 2007,As of 2007,► 214 nuclear reactors proposed worldwide -- 179,345 MWe214 nuclear reactors proposed worldwide -- 179,345 MWe► In Asia:In Asia:
Over 109 nuclear power reactors in operationOver 109 nuclear power reactors in operation Plans to build about a further 110Plans to build about a further 110
► Greatest nuclear growth in China, Japan, S. Korea, India Greatest nuclear growth in China, Japan, S. Korea, India
Proposed Reactors in 2007
0102030405060708090100
Num
ber o
f Rea
ctor
s
86
15 21202418
“Nuclear Power in the World Today.” World Nuclear Association. (2007) http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf01.html
Data: “Nuclear Power in the World Today.” World Nuclear Association. 2007
Why is nuclear back?Why is nuclear back?
Why is nuclear back?Why is nuclear back?
► Energy SecurityEnergy Security► Low COLow CO22 emissions emissions
► “ “Low” generating costsLow” generating costs► “ “Improved” TechnologyImproved” Technology► GeopoliticsGeopolitics► Safety and SecuritySafety and Security► Waste DisposalWaste Disposal
Why is nuclear back?Why is nuclear back?
► Energy SecurityEnergy Security► Low COLow CO22 emissions emissions
► “ “Low” generating costsLow” generating costs► “ “Improved” TechnologyImproved” Technology► GeopoliticsGeopolitics► Safety and SecuritySafety and Security► Waste DisposalWaste Disposal
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
Energy demand is forecasted to Energy demand is forecasted to double from 2003 to 2030.double from 2003 to 2030. Asia has the greatest demand.Asia has the greatest demand.
Energy Security: What’s NewEnergy Security: What’s New
Growing world energy Growing world energy consumptionconsumption
Annual Growth of Energy Consumption
► Global consumption will double from 2003 to 2030.Global consumption will double from 2003 to 2030.► Asia has greatest increase in demand.Asia has greatest increase in demand.
“Prediction of energy consumption world-wide.” timeforchange.org. (2007)
Why is nuclear back?Why is nuclear back?
► Energy SecurityEnergy Security► Low COLow CO22 emissions emissions
► “ “Low” generating costsLow” generating costs► “ “Improved” TechnologyImproved” Technology► GeopoliticsGeopolitics► Safety and SecuritySafety and Security► Waste DisposalWaste Disposal
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is nownow
a recognized objective. a recognized objective.
Climate Change: What’s NewClimate Change: What’s New
Nuclear is better than fossil Nuclear is better than fossil fuelsfuels
Energy SourceEnergy Source Carbon Carbon Dioxide Dioxide
(lbs/MWh)(lbs/MWh)
Sulfur Dioxide Sulfur Dioxide (lbs/MWh)(lbs/MWh)
Nitrogen Nitrogen Oxides Oxides
(lbs/MWh)(lbs/MWh)
Natural GasNatural Gas 11351135 0.10.1 1.71.7
CoalCoal 22492249 1313 66
OilOil 16721672 1212 44
Nuclear Nuclear EnergyEnergy
NN NN NN
“Air Emissions.” US Environmental Protection Agency (2007) http://www.epa.gov/solar/emissions.htm
Air Emissions of Energy Sources in USA
Nuclear is one of many Nuclear is one of many optionsoptions
Energy SourceEnergy Source Carbon Carbon Dioxide Dioxide
(lbs/MWh)(lbs/MWh)
Sulfur Dioxide Sulfur Dioxide (lbs/MWh)(lbs/MWh)
Nitrogen Nitrogen Oxides Oxides
(lbs/MWh)(lbs/MWh)
Natural GasNatural Gas 11351135 0.10.1 1.71.7
CoalCoal 22492249 1313 66
OilOil 16721672 1212 44
Nuclear Nuclear EnergyEnergy
NN NN NN
HydroelectricitHydroelectricityy
NN NN NN
SolarSolar NN NN NN
GeothermalGeothermal NN NN NN
BiomassBiomass N (natural N (natural cycle)cycle)
SmallSmall SmallSmall
DSMDSM NN NN NN
WindWind NN NN NN
“Air Emissions.” US Environmental Protection Agency (2007) http://www.epa.gov/solar/emissions.htm
Air Emissions of Energy Sources in USA
Nuclear gives least reductions in Nuclear gives least reductions in COCO22
Nuclear energy only accounts for 10% of future Nuclear energy only accounts for 10% of future CO2 emission reductions.CO2 emission reductions.
(prediction for 2030)
Energy efficiency accounts for 86%
Source: “Nuclear Pros and Cons.” http://timeforchange.org (2007) Data Source: International Energy Agency (IEA). http://iea.org
Reducing fossil fuelsReducing fossil fuels
Nuclear will not Nuclear will not displace fossil displace fossil fuel use.fuel use.
Why not invest Why not invest in something in something that will?that will?
“Nuclear Pros and Cons.” http://timeforchange.org (2007)
Nuclear and fossil fuels Nuclear and fossil fuels go hand in hand?go hand in hand?
► In North America, nuclear In North America, nuclear plants operate alongside coal-plants operate alongside coal-fired plants. Nuclear plants:fired plants. Nuclear plants:
Run continually, cannot be easily Run continually, cannot be easily switched on and offswitched on and off
Generate a base (fixed) demandGenerate a base (fixed) demand
Are supplemented by other fuels Are supplemented by other fuels to meet peak demandsto meet peak demands
► Example: Ontario, Canada:Example: Ontario, Canada:
Performance of nuclear power Performance of nuclear power plant declined, so utility increased plant declined, so utility increased reliance on coal-fired producers. reliance on coal-fired producers.
Crystal River 3 in Florida, USA.
Plants 1, 2 (foreground) and Plants 4, 5 (background) are coal fired.
Unit 3 (mid picture) is nuclear powered.
http://www.atomicengines.com/pictures.html
“What Thai Citizens Should Know About Canada’s Nuclear Power Program.” Probe International (1999) http://www.threegorgesprobe.org/probeint/Mekong/candu/9902.html#8
Why is nuclear back?Why is nuclear back?
► Energy SecurityEnergy Security► Low COLow CO22 emissions emissions
► “ “Low” generating costsLow” generating costs► “ “Improved” TechnologyImproved” Technology► GeopoliticsGeopolitics► Safety and SecuritySafety and Security► Waste DisposalWaste Disposal
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
Limited supply and rising costs of Limited supply and rising costs of fossil fuels are driving renewed fossil fuels are driving renewed
interests in alternatives. interests in alternatives.
Cost: What’s NewCost: What’s New
Generation costsGeneration costsEGAT: Nuclear has the least generating cost EGAT: Nuclear has the least generating cost when compared to fossil fuels and renewables.when compared to fossil fuels and renewables.
Power SourcePower Source Generating CostGenerating Cost
NuclearNuclear 2.082.08
Coal-fired thermalCoal-fired thermal 2.122.12
Gas-fired combined Gas-fired combined cyclecycle
2.292.29
Oil-fired thermalOil-fired thermal 4.124.12
Gas-turbinesGas-turbines 7.937.93
SolarSolar 20.2020.20
Wind turbineWind turbine 5.985.98
WasteWaste 4.634.63
BiomassBiomass 2.632.63EGAT “Power Development Plan” presentation at public hearing at Military club, April 3 2007
Governments subsidize nuclearGovernments subsidize nuclear► R&D for nuclear is financed by governmentR&D for nuclear is financed by government
Costs don't get transferred to the cost of nuclear electricity.Costs don't get transferred to the cost of nuclear electricity. In 2005, half of 28 power plants have been under construction for In 2005, half of 28 power plants have been under construction for
18-30 years. 18-30 years. 11
► R&D for renewable energy is mostly financed privately R&D for renewable energy is mostly financed privately 22
Production costs are included in the cost of renewable electricity.Production costs are included in the cost of renewable electricity.
http://neinuclearnotes.blogspot.com
Cost of Federal Incentives for Energy Development in 2003 (USA)
1 “Nuclear Power: Myth and Reality.” Heinrich Boll Foundation. Regional Office for Southern Africa. (2006) 2 “What Thai Citizens Should Know About Canada’s Nuclear Power Program.” Probe International (1999) http://www.threegorgesprobe.org/probeint/Mekong/candu/9902.html#8
If nuclear power expands, reserves will deplete If nuclear power expands, reserves will deplete faster and become more costly. faster and become more costly.
Most uranium is found in very poor grade ores. Recovery will be more greenhouse intensive. 2
Uranium costs will increaseUranium costs will increaseAt current consumption rate:At current consumption rate:
► ResourceResource: high-grade, low-cost : high-grade, low-cost oresoresSupplies lastSupplies last: : 50 years50 years
► ResourceResource: conventional reserves: conventional reservesSupplies lastSupplies last: 200 years : 200 years 11
1 Nuclear Energy Agency, International Atomic Energy Agency “Uranium 2003: Resources, Production, Demand.” 1 Nuclear Energy Agency, International Atomic Energy Agency “Uranium 2003: Resources, Production, Demand.” Paris: OECD. (2004)Paris: OECD. (2004)2 van Leeuwen, Jan-Willem. “Can nuclear power provide energy for the future; would it solve the CO2-emission 2 van Leeuwen, Jan-Willem. “Can nuclear power provide energy for the future; would it solve the CO2-emission problem?”, problem?”, http://beheer.oprit.rug.nl/deenen (2004) http://beheer.oprit.rug.nl/deenen (2004)
Wikipedia.org
Uranium mining site in USA
Why is nuclear back?Why is nuclear back?
► Energy SecurityEnergy Security► Low COLow CO22 emissions emissions
► “ “Low” generating costsLow” generating costs► “ “Improved” TechnologyImproved” Technology► GeopoliticsGeopolitics► Safety and SecuritySafety and Security► Waste DisposalWaste Disposal
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
New generations of reactors that New generations of reactors that promise safety and efficiency are in promise safety and efficiency are in
various stages of design and various stages of design and development.development.
Technology: What’s NewTechnology: What’s New
Advanced Nuclear Advanced Nuclear TechnologyTechnology
New generations of reactors will have improved New generations of reactors will have improved efficiency, cleanliness, safety, and capabilities.efficiency, cleanliness, safety, and capabilities.
Gas-cooled reactor
Molten-salt reactor
Nuclear thermal rocket
Generation IV and V Reactors:Generation IV and V Reactors:
“Nuclear Reactor Technology.” Wikipedia.org. (2007) www.wikipedia.org
Technology only on paperTechnology only on paper► Generation IV reactors will not be produced Generation IV reactors will not be produced
until 2030 (optimistic estimate).until 2030 (optimistic estimate).
► Generation V reactors still only theoretical Generation V reactors still only theoretical designs.designs. New generations will not be “idiot-proof” New generations will not be “idiot-proof” 11
► Installed reactors will be Generation II or III, Installed reactors will be Generation II or III, and are known to have inherent flaws or be and are known to have inherent flaws or be trouble-prone. Examples of CANDU: trouble-prone. Examples of CANDU: 22
Reactor pressure tubes prone to ruptureReactor pressure tubes prone to rupture Faulty emergency coolant systemsFaulty emergency coolant systems Operating errors damage fuel bundlesOperating errors damage fuel bundles
1 “Nuclear Power: Myth and Reality.” Heinrich Boll Foundation. Regional Office for Southern Africa. (2006) 2 “What Thai Citizens Should Know About Canada’s Nuclear Power Program.” Probe International 1999 http://www.threegorgesprobe.org/
Why is nuclear back?Why is nuclear back?
► Energy SecurityEnergy Security► Low COLow CO22 emissions emissions
► “ “Low” generating costsLow” generating costs► “ “Improved” TechnologyImproved” Technology► GeopoliticsGeopolitics► Safety and SecuritySafety and Security► Waste DisposalWaste Disposal
Bomb material can be derived from a regular nuclear Bomb material can be derived from a regular nuclear reactor by two ways:reactor by two ways:
Enriching uranium-- process used to make nuclear reactor fuel. Enriching uranium-- process used to make nuclear reactor fuel.
Reprocessing-- taking spent fuel rods and extracting plutonium. Reprocessing-- taking spent fuel rods and extracting plutonium. A baseball-sized amount can make a Nagasaki-size bomb.A baseball-sized amount can make a Nagasaki-size bomb.
Nuclear reactors can be used to Nuclear reactors can be used to make bombsmake bombs
http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/
“Nuclear Energy.” Reaching Critical Will. (2001) http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/
Myth of peaceful powerMyth of peaceful powerFACT
20 of 60 countries with ‘peaceful’ nuclear reactors conducted covert weapons research or production. 1
► India’s 1974 “Peaceful Nuclear India’s 1974 “Peaceful Nuclear Explosion”, called “Smiling Buddha” Explosion”, called “Smiling Buddha” exemplifies mythexemplifies myth
► India replicated a donated research India replicated a donated research reactor and self-developed plutonium reactor and self-developed plutonium separation plant to make bombseparation plant to make bomb
► Pakistani PM promised to build the Pakistani PM promised to build the bomb "even if we have to eat grass bomb "even if we have to eat grass or leaves or to remain hungry.“ or leaves or to remain hungry.“ 22
EXAMPLE: India’s Smiling Buddha
Indian PM Benazir Bhutto visiting nuclear site.
1 Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. 2005 <http://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.pdf> 2 “Canada blamed for India's 'peaceful' bomb.” CBC Archives (2006) <http://archives.cbc.ca/>
http://wikipedia.org
IAEA has severe limitationsIAEA has severe limitationsAt least 8 NPT states have weapons projects in violation of NPT, or have permissible weapons activities but failed to report to IAEA.
Examples: Egypt Iraq Libya North Korea Romania South Korea Taiwan Yugoslavia
http://www.nkzone.org/nkzone/category/diplomacy/
Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. 2005 2005 http://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.phttp://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.pdfdf
Why is nuclear back?Why is nuclear back?
► Energy SecurityEnergy Security► Low COLow CO22 emissions emissions
► “ “Low” generating costsLow” generating costs► “ “Improved” TechnologyImproved” Technology► GeopoliticsGeopolitics► Safety and SecuritySafety and Security► Waste DisposalWaste Disposal
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
Safety and Security: What’s Safety and Security: What’s NewNew
Hundreds of accidents continue to Hundreds of accidents continue to occur, though smaller than in 1986.occur, though smaller than in 1986.
Nuclear terrorism is a bigger threat Nuclear terrorism is a bigger threat than ever before.than ever before.
New generations of technology New generations of technology promise to have better security.promise to have better security.
Too many accidentsToo many accidentsChernobyl and Three Mile Island are best-known of hundreds of accidents:
At least 8 accidents involving damage to or malfunction of the core of nuclear power or research reactors.
At least five nuclear research reactor accidents have resulted in fatalities.
There have been other serious reactor accidents which did not involve core damage or malfunction, and a number of ‘near misses’ with power reactors found to be in a serious state of disrepair.
Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. 2005 2005 http://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.phttp://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.pdfdf
Too many accidents► Tokai-mura, Japan in 1999: Two workers received lethal doses
of radiation; Later revealed that data and inspections had been manipulated at tens of reactors to avoid repairs and lengthy closure.
► Sellafield, UK in 2000: Fuel processing site found to have a fundamental failure of safety culture by Government inspectors.
► David-Besse, US in 2002: Corrosion came so close to penetrating the vital pressure vessel that it could have led to complete reactor core meltdown.
► Cruas-3, -4 , France in 2003: Flood affected damage and shutdown.
► Mihama, Japan in 2004: Steam explosion killed five workers.
► Mihama, Japan 2006: Plant shut down due to earthquake concerns.
► Niigata, Japan 2007: Earthquake triggers fire in nuclear plant.PHOTO: Number 3 reactor after accident at the Mihama nuclear plant in Japan.http://www.smh.com.au
““Nuclear: Safety.” Greenpeace International Nuclear: Safety.” Greenpeace International (2006)(2006)http://www.greenpeace.org/international/campaigns/nuclear/safety
Radioactive emissionsRadioactive emissions► Radioactive emissions are routinely generated across
the nuclear fuel cycle.
UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (1994) estimates collective effective dose to world population over 50-year period of operation of nuclear facilities is 2 million person-Sieverts.
Applying the standard risk estimate to that level of radiation exposure gives 80,000 fatal cancers.
► Chernobyl:
Applying the standard risk estimate to radiation gives 24,000 fatal cancers. Permanent relocation of 220,000 people from Belarus, the Russian Federation, and the Ukraine.
Chernobyl Reactor 4 after accident
http://www.sheppardsoftware.com
Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. Green, Jim. No Solution to Climate Change. Friends of the Earth. 2005 2005 http://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.phttp://www.acfonline.org.au/uploads/res_nukesnosolsummary.pdfdf
Conventional and terrorist Conventional and terrorist attacksattacks
►Nations have attacked nuclear facilities with conventional weapons. Iraq’s nuclear facilities bombed by Iran, Israel
and USA. Iran’s nuclear plant bombed by Iraq in the 1980s. Iraq claims to have targeted Scud missiles at
Israel’s Dimona nuclear plant in 1991.
►Terrorists can hijack nuclear transporters, crash into reactors, and blow up containers of radioactive waste to spread radioactivity.
Barnaby, Frank and James Kemp. Too Hot to Handle? The Future of Civil Nuclear Power. United Kingdom: Oxford Research Group, 2007: 14
Trafficking of nuclear Trafficking of nuclear materialsmaterials
► The IAEA’s Illicit Trafficking Database records over 650 incidents of trafficking in radioactive materials since 1993. 100 trafficking incidents occurred in 2004. 1
► Smuggling can provide fissile material for nuclear weapons and radioactive materials for use in ‘dirty bombs’.
THAILAND: 2003 Cesium CaptureJune 13, 2003: Thai national arrested in
Bangkok after he tried to sell 30 kg of cesium 137 to undercover agents. Cesium 137, could be used to make a dirty bombs. 2
1 El Baradei, Mohamed. “Nuclear Terrorism: Identifying and Combating the Risks”, March 16, 2005 <www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/2005/ebsp2005n003.html>
2 Andreoni, Alessandro and Charles D. Ferguson. Radioactive Cesium Seizure in Thailand: Riddled with Uncertainties. James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies: July 2003 http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/030717.htm
►A nuclear weapon powerful enough to destroy a city requires a mere 10 kg of plutonium.
►The nuclear power industry has produced 1,600 tons of plutonium (Institute for Science and International Security, 2004) – enough to build about 160,000 nuclear weapons.
Even if 99% of the plutonium is indefinitely protected, the remaining 1% would suffice for 1,600 nuclear weapons.
No margin of errorNo margin of error
Institute for Science and International Security, “Civil Plutonium Produced in Power Reactors” (2004) <www.isis-online.org/global_stocks/civil_pu.html>.
Why is nuclear back?Why is nuclear back?
► Energy SecurityEnergy Security► Low COLow CO22 emissions emissions
► “ “Low” generating costsLow” generating costs► “ “Improved” TechnologyImproved” Technology► GeopoliticsGeopolitics► Safety and SecuritySafety and Security► Waste DisposalWaste Disposal
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
Waste Disposal: What’s NewWaste Disposal: What’s New
Nothing, really.Nothing, really.
► Uranium mining and milling Uranium mining and milling leaves radioactive slimes. leaves radioactive slimes.
► Spent fuel contains Spent fuel contains radioactive substances.radioactive substances.
► Reprocessing creates high-Reprocessing creates high-level radioactive sludge.level radioactive sludge.
► By 2000, nuclear industry By 2000, nuclear industry had created 201,000 tons had created 201,000 tons of highly radioactive of highly radioactive nuclear waste.nuclear waste.
Must secure waste for Must secure waste for 10,000 - 240,000 yrs10,000 - 240,000 yrs
Fuel cycle process pollutesFuel cycle process pollutesTHE FUEL CYCLE PROCESS
“Nuclear Energy.” Reaching Critical Will. (2001) http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/
No long-term waste solutionNo long-term waste solution►Not a single repository exists anywhere for the
disposal of high-level nuclear waste Only a few countries have identified potential sites.
http://wikipedia.org
► MIT STUDY:
Scenario: Global nuclear output increased 3X
Result: New repository storage capacity equal to the legal limit for Yucca Mountain must be created every 3-4 years.
Yucca Mountain in USA (Proposed Repository Site)
John Deutch and Ernest J. Moniz et al, The Future of Nuclear John Deutch and Ernest J. Moniz et al, The Future of Nuclear Power: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study, Cambridge, MA: MIT, Power: An Interdisciplinary MIT Study, Cambridge, MA: MIT, 2003.2003.
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
History of NuclearHistory of Nuclearin Thailandin Thailand
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
NUCLEARPUSH
19661966EGAT proposes Thailand's first nuclear EGAT proposes Thailand's first nuclear project.project.
“Thailand’s Nuclear Program: 1966-1997” WISE News Communique (1997)http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/473/4692.html
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
19741974Bhai Bay, Chonburi, 350-500 MW, proposal Bhai Bay, Chonburi, 350-500 MW, proposal approved.approved.
“Thailand’s Nuclear Program: 1966-1997” WISE News Communique (1997)http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/473/4692.html
STALLEDNUCLEARPUSH
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
19741974Project shelved after a drop in natural gas costs.Project shelved after a drop in natural gas costs.
“Thailand’s Nuclear Program: 1966-1997” WISE News Communique (1997)http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/473/4692.html
STALLED FAILED
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
19771977EGAT re-proposes and government approves. EGAT re-proposes and government approves.
“Thailand’s Nuclear Program: 1966-1997” WISE News Communique (1997)http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/473/4692.html
NUCLEARPUSH
STALLED FAILED
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
19771977Global and public opposition leads to Global and public opposition leads to cancellation.cancellation.
“Thailand’s Nuclear Program: 1966-1997” WISE News Communique (1997)http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/473/4692.html
STALLED FAILED
FAILED
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
19931993Office of Atomic Energy and Peace (OAEP) Office of Atomic Energy and Peace (OAEP) proposes research reactor (5-10 MW) in proposes research reactor (5-10 MW) in Ongkarak.Ongkarak.
“Thailand’s Nuclear Program: 1966-1997” WISE News Communique (1997)http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/473/4692.html
NUCLEARPUSHSTALLED FAILED
FAILED
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
1993- 20031993- 2003Ongkarak plans halted multiple times due to safety Ongkarak plans halted multiple times due to safety and environmental problems. and environmental problems. 11 US-based General US-based General Atomics, contracted to build, threatens legal action Atomics, contracted to build, threatens legal action for stall in plans. for stall in plans. 22
1 “Thailand’s Nuclear Program: 1966-1997” WISE News (1997) http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/473/4692.html2 “Thailand: The Final Countdown” WISE/NIRS (2002) http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/index.html?http://www10.antenna.nl/wise/573/5439.html
STALLED FAILED
FAILEDOngarak “Fiasco”
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
“Thailand To Build First Nuclear Plant.” Energy Daily (2007)http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/Thailand_To_Build_First_Nuclear_Plant_999.html
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20072007National Power Development Plan (PDP) calls National Power Development Plan (PDP) calls for nuclear energy by 2020. EGAT to invest for nuclear energy by 2020. EGAT to invest six billion dollars to build 4,000 MW nuclear six billion dollars to build 4,000 MW nuclear power plant.power plant.
STALLED FAILED
FAILEDOngarak “Fiasco”
NUCLEARPUSH
NUCLEAR
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
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NUCLEARPUSH
POLITICAL
NUCLEARPUSH
NUCLEARPUSH
NUCLEARPUSH
NUCLEAR
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
NUCLEARPUSH
POLITICAL
NUCLEARPUSH
1963-19731963-1973Military regime led by Generals Thanom-Military regime led by Generals Thanom-PraphasPraphas
NUCLEARPUSH
NUCLEARPUSH
David Wyatt, “Thailand: A short history” 1984, p 286.
The COLD WAR, US influence, military rule
NUCLEAR
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
NUCLEARPUSH
POLITICAL
NUCLEARPUSH
19761976Military Coup following Oct 6 massacre, Military Coup following Oct 6 massacre, Thanin Kraivixien-led government installedThanin Kraivixien-led government installed
NUCLEARPUSH
NUCLEARPUSH
COUP
“History of Thailand since 1973.” Wikipedia.org (2007)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Thailand_since_1973
COLD WAR Military Rule
NUCLEAR
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
NUCLEARPUSH
POLITICAL
NUCLEARPUSH
19771977Military Coup led by Kriangsak Chomanand.Military Coup led by Kriangsak Chomanand.
NUCLEARPUSH
NUCLEARPUSH
COUP
“History of Thailand since 1973.” Wikipedia.org (2007)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Thailand_since_1973
COLD WAR Military Rule
NUCLEAR
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
NUCLEARPUSH
POLITICAL
NUCLEARPUSH
19911991Military Coup, led by Generals Sunthorn and Military Coup, led by Generals Sunthorn and Suchinda, bloody “Black May” military crackdown Suchinda, bloody “Black May” military crackdown on protests against Suchinda as PM, Anand on protests against Suchinda as PM, Anand installed as interim PMinstalled as interim PM
NUCLEARPUSH
NUCLEARPUSH
COUP COUP
“History of Thailand since 1973.” Wikipedia.org (2007)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Thailand_since_1973
COLD WAR Military Rule
NUCLEAR
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
NUCLEARPUSH
POLITICAL
NUCLEARPUSH
20062006 Military Coup led by Sonthi Military Coup led by Sonthi Boonyaratglin,Boonyaratglin,General Surayud Chulanont installed as General Surayud Chulanont installed as PMPM
NUCLEARPUSH
NUCLEARPUSH
COUP COUP COUP
“History of Thailand since 1973.” Wikipedia.org (2007)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Thailand_since_1973
COLD WAR Military Rule
NUCLEAR
Nuclear in ThailandNuclear in Thailand
19601960 19701970 19801980 19901990 20002000 20102010
NUCLEARPUSH
POLITICAL
NUCLEARPUSH
<500 <500 MWMW
NUCLEARPUSH
5-10 MW 5-10 MW research research reactorreactor
NUCLEARPUSH
4,000 4,000 MWMW
COUP COUP COUP
“Thailand To Build First Nuclear Plant.” (2007) “Thailand’s Nuclear Program: 1966-1997” WISE.
(1997)
COLD WAR Military Rule