Thailand’s Export Opportunities :

Decision Support Model Approach

Pimchanok VonkhorpornMinister (Commercial)

Head of Office of Commercial Affairs Royal Thai Embassy, Brussels

20 September 2012

For EIAS Seminar, Brussels

DSM Discussion (1)• General comments :

– Practical and simple methodology but requires database to be utilized by public • More detailed explanation in the actual

paper would enable better understanding

– Data a bit outdated, leading to slightly ambiguous outcomes

– Similar to Thailand’s FTA selection but more academically sound

– Will be useful as general guidelines not only for export promotion but for trade negotiations as well

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• Methodology and Outcomes– Methodology quite straightforward

• Products selected after Filters 3.1 and 3.2 should be derivation of “intersection”, not “union”

– Weighted calculation yields better results– Most outcomes are in line with Thailand’s

export situation – Some results will be helpful in identifying

potential markets and products eg. not enough agro-based products• But whether some should be promoted or

not must be further studied especially products which Thailand has to import raw materials eg. Oil

DSM Discussion (2)

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• Further improvements in the paper– Filters : some are not clearly explained eg.

Market penetration is based on what factors – Trade restrictions : how to quantify or just

taken them into account especially NTBs • Ability to export to that market doesn’t

always mean that it has no restrictions but exporting countries may have adapted

– Other indexes : can other indexes be included in future model to screen further countries eg., IMD competitiveness index, WB Ease of Doing Business

– More readily available database will make the model more useful for development countries

DSM Discussion (3)

Thailand’s Exports 2011

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$23,870 mil$21,784 mil

$24,158 mil

$54,045 mil$72,471 mil

EU 10.8%

ASEAN 24.28%

USA 9.8%

Japan 10.7%

Others 32.56%

China 11.8%

$26,251 mil

Source : Ministry of Commerce and Customs Department, 2011

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Major export items• Computers and parts (7.7%)• Motor cars, parts and acc. (7.6%)• Rubber (5.7%)• Gems and jewellery (5.5%)• Refined oil (4.5%)• Plastic pellets (4%)

Major import items• Crude oil (14.4%)• Machinery and parts (8.7%)• Gems, stones, silver, gold(8.7%)• Chemicals(6.5%)• Iron & steel products (6.1%)• Electrical machinery & parts (5.8%)

US$ 222.5 billion

US$ 228.8 billion

Current account balance

= 3.4% of GDP

Year 2011

Source: Ministry of Commerce, Customs Department, tradingeconomics.com 2011

TOP TEN TRADING PARTNERS (2011)

Value (mil. USD) Growth (%)

Balance (mil. USD)

1. Japan 66,076 13.4 -18,335

2. China 56,752 24.15 -4,250

3. USA 35,177 13.92 8,390

4. Malaysia 24,730 16.13 68

5. Singapore 19,212 25.55 3,634

6. Indonesia 17,454 33.86 2,702

7. UAE 17,231 48.20 -11,707

8. Australia 15,945 34.52 50

9. HKC 14.292 28.73 9,613

10. S. Korea 13,793 18.18 -4,638

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Source: Ministry of Commerce and Customs Department, 2011

ASEAN

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One ASEAN at the Heart of Dynamic Asia‘

’

THAILAND’S FTAs

USA

ASEAN-EU Thai-

EFTA

PendingApproval

Chile

Under Study

ASEAN-GCC

ASEAN-MERCOSUR

BIMSTEC

OngoingNegotiations

FTAsin Force

ASEAN-IndiaThai-India

ASEAN-JapanJTEPA

ASEAN-China

ASEAN-Korea

ASEAN-CERThai-Australia

Thai-New Zealand

Peru

Thai-EU

ASEAN AEC

Suspended

RCEP

InvestmentOpportunities

AEC as a

Single Marketand Production

Base(economies of

scale, large markets, etc)

RegionalPlatform and Building blocs

BIMSTECASEAN+3ASEAN+6

RCEPFTAAP?

Connecting Asia and the World

BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES:

Partnership BuildingInvestmentOpportunities

Sectors

Auto and partsMachineryChemical

Food & BiotechHealthcare

Alt./Ren. EnergyEnvironment

Logistics

Economic Corridor NSEC (North-South Economic Corridor)

Thailand-Myanmar-Lao-China

EWEC (East-West Economic Corridor)Myanmar-Thailand-Lao-Vietnam

Southern Economic CorridorThailand-Cambodia-Vietnam

Connectivity

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How can Thailand capitalise on her location and endowment?