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Background Brief
Cambodia: Prime Minister HunSens Promises of Reform
Carlyle A. Thayer
October 1, 2013
[client name deleted]
We are preparing a report on the Prime Minister Hun Sen's
promises to reform theCPP's [Cambodian Peoples Party] method of
government, which he raised a few
times in a marathon six-hour speech last week.
--cambodiadaily.com/elections/ministers-told-to-prepare-for-public-scrutiny-43405/
--cambodiadaily.com/news/hun-sens-6-hour-reform-promise-met-with-yawns-
43401/
This is not the first time Hun Sen had made promises like this
over the past twenty
years of post-UNTAC [United Nations Transitional Authority in
Cambodia]
government.
We request your assessment on whether or not these promises now
can be taken
seriously compared to the promises to end corruption,
deforestation and land-
grabbing made repeatedly in the past whenever Hun Sen found
himself in a spot of
bother.
We request your assessment of the following three issues:
Q1. Is promising reform and putting on a conciliatory tone a
strategy for Hun Sen in
times of hardship for the CPP? Do you think these pledges are
serious or just a front
that will disappear once the CPP regains control of politics, or
the CNRP [Cambodia
National Rescue Party] dissolves into in-fighting?
ANSWER: Hun Sen and several of his party cohorts are familiar
with the Leninist
party-building mechanism of criticism and self-criticism. Hun
Sen, after all, is a
graduate of Vietnams Higher Political Academy. Criticism and
self-criticism is a
devise to identify weakness and shortcomings in party policy as
a necessary first step
towards the rectification of these defects.
Self-criticism is undertaken by each party member who provides a
personal
evaluation of his/her strengths and weaknesses. Other party
members are
encouraged to comment on the veracity and sincerity of the
self-criticism. One
defect in criticism-self-criticism sessions is that they become
perfunctory and
routine. Over time party members pull their punches in the hopes
that other partymembers will reciprocate.
Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123
http://cambodiadaily.com/elections/ministers-told-to-prepare-for-public-scrutiny-43405/http://cambodiadaily.com/elections/ministers-told-to-prepare-for-public-scrutiny-43405/http://cambodiadaily.com/elections/ministers-told-to-prepare-for-public-scrutiny-43405/http://cambodiadaily.com/news/hun-sens-6-hour-reform-promise-met-with-yawns-43401/http://cambodiadaily.com/news/hun-sens-6-hour-reform-promise-met-with-yawns-43401/http://cambodiadaily.com/news/hun-sens-6-hour-reform-promise-met-with-yawns-43401/http://cambodiadaily.com/news/hun-sens-6-hour-reform-promise-met-with-yawns-43401/http://cambodiadaily.com/news/hun-sens-6-hour-reform-promise-met-with-yawns-43401/http://cambodiadaily.com/news/hun-sens-6-hour-reform-promise-met-with-yawns-43401/http://cambodiadaily.com/elections/ministers-told-to-prepare-for-public-scrutiny-43405/
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Why is this relevant to Hun Sen and the CPP today? Hun Sens
public remarks should
be viewed as combining two contradictory elements: the desire to
rectify the causes
of the CPPs poor electoral results and the desire to remain in
power. Hun Sens
promise of eradicating corruption and carrying out reforms are
no more than the
default position for a party official well versed in the
gamesmanship of offering self-
criticism in the expectation that there will be no real
change.
It should also be recalled that the CPPs roots trace back to the
time of collective
responsibility for policy failure. Collective responsibility
works best when the party is
unified, otherwise a faction and its leader are singled out as
scapegoats. But the CPP
is dominated by Hun Sen and as long as the CNRP poses a threat
to CPP-rule, the
party will rally behind its leader. This is a short-term
response to the present crisis. It
is not a long-term response to fundamental issues of why the CPP
lost so much
electoral support (autocratic government, corruption, land
seizure).
Q2. Lao Mong Hay said that the situation is different for the
CPP now - having seen
the results of this election, they have to reform, or
potentially lose the communeelections in 2017 - so their pledges to
reform are for once backed by a real, self-
preservation-driven motivation to reform. Do you think this
analysis is accurate?
ANSWER: There are elements within the CPP that take a long-term
view and
understand that fundamental reform of the way the CPP governs is
necessary to
ensure the party stays in power. This view was clearly expressed
by Sar Kheng late
last month when he identified two major issues facing the CPP
political reform and
changing the CPPs style of governance. Sar Khengs views are
likely to become
stronger once the present political crisis is over and the CPP
faces uncertain
prospects at the mid-term commune elections.
But if the CNRP implodes or its campaign of demonstrations and
general strikes runs
out of steam, the dominant tendency in the CPP will be to
undertake minimal
reform.
Q3. Even if there is that self-preservation factor in play, do
you think that the CPP
can do what is in its own interests? The whole party seems built
on corruption and
patronage networks. Assuming the party leadership wants to
reform, can it?
ANSWER: Reform is a prolonged process. Petty corruption is
unlikely to be
eradicated. Entrenched large-scale corruption can only be dealt
with on a case by
case basis. It is more likely to falter after a few relatively
high-profile individuals are
targeted. The duty of a patron is to protect his clients. A
thoroughgoing anti-
corruption campaign risks raising uncertainty over protection.
Clients are notorious
for switching support if their patron appears to be losing
power. In sum, there are
limits to ending large-scale entrenched corruption based on
patronage networks in
Cambodia. It would require a change in regime or Hun Sens
replacement as prime
minister.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Cambodia: Prime Minister
Hun Sens Promises
of Reform,Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 1, 2013.
All background
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