Thayer China’s Strategy in the South China Sea and the Prospect for Armed Conflict

8/6/2019 Thayer Chinas Strategy in the South China Sea and the Prospect for Armed Conflict

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Background Briefing:

The South China Sea: Chinese

Hegemony or Peaceful

Settlement?

Carlyle A. Thayer

June 10, 2011

[clientnamedeleted]

1.Inyourview,whatwillhappenifChinatotallycontrolsalloftheEastSeashipping

routes? If this happens, how will it impact on East Asia and the AsiaPacificeconomically?

ANSWER:ThereisnopossibilityofChinatotallycontrollingalltheEastSeasealines

ofcommunications(SLOCs)withinthenextthreetofivedecades.Seacontrolisa

militarytermmeaningdominance.TheChineseNavywillneverbestrongenoughin

thethreetofiveyeartimeframetopreventUnitedStateswarshipsfromtravelling

throughtheEastSea.

AlltheeconomiesofEastAsiaaredependentonSLOCsthroughtheEastSea.Also,

allmajortradingnations,likeAustralia,arealsodependentontheseroutes.IfChina

attempted todisrupt international trade itwouldbe threatening the lifebloodof

Japan,SouthKorea,Australia,andtheUnitedStates.

ControllingtheSLOCsisadifferentmatterfromChinaexercisinghegemonyoverthe

islandarchipelagoes intheSouthChinaSea.TheSLOCsruntotheeastandwestof

theSpratlyIslands.IfChinawereabletoexercisehegemonyoverthe islandsinthe

EastSeaitcouldenforceitslaws.ChinacouldpreventthelittoralstatesVietnam,

thePhilippinesandMalaysiafromexploitingthenaturalresources(oilandgas)and

fish stocks in thisarea.Thiswouldbe crippling to theeconomiesofVietnamand

Philippines.ChinawouldbenefitfromcontrolovertheEastSeasresources.

ThescenarioofChinesehegemonycouldcomeaboutonly iftheUnitedStatesand

othermajorpowersacquiesced.Thisishighlyunlikely.

2.

Why

does

China

choose

to

act

now

but

not

at

some

other

time?

ANSWER:Chinaisrespondingtothediplomaticsetbacksitsufferedin2010.In2008

ittargetedU.S.andotherwesternoilcompaniesandwarnedthemagainstassisting

Vietnam in exploiting the oil and gas resources in the East Sea. TheU.S. reacted

stronglybothpubliclyandprivately.Chinahasshifted target to theoilexploration

vesselsofthePhilippinesandVietnam.

China isrespondingtothe legalchallengesto its9dash lineUshapedmapandto

increasedoilexplorationactivitiesbyVietnamandthePhilippines.Inordertoclaim

Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123


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2

indisputable sovereignty over the East Sea China has decided to manage the

SouthChinaSeaandexerciseitsjurisdiction.IthasassignedmoderncivilianChina

MaritimeSurveillanceshipstoperformthistask.

China knows that ASEAN unity is fragile and that some of its members can be

inducedifnotintimidatedintopreventingastrongunitedfrontfrombeingformed.

Chinaalsoknowsthat insevenmonthsIndonesiawillno longerbechairofASEAN.ForthenextfouryearsASEANwillbeledbystateswithnodirectinterestintheEast

Sea(Brunei,Cambodia,MyanmarandLaos).

Finally,ChinaisactinginsuchanassertivemannertopreempttheagendaofASEAN

summitand relatedmeeting tobeheld later this year.By showinga stronghand

nowChinahopestopreventthemfromtakingunitedaction.ThisisatestofASEAN

unity andUnited States commitment. China knows there is little appetite among

ASEAN members to confront China or take sides. China is calculating that under

politicalpressureVietnamandthePhilippinescanbeisolatedtoacertainextentand

forced to but bilateral deals with China. In this case, China will press for joint

developmentontermsfavourabletoitself.

3.Whatdoyouthinktheresponsesofthemajorpowerswillbe?DoyouthinkChina

hasalreadythoughtthroughthereactionsofotherworldpowers'beforemakingits

decisiontoact?

ANSWER: China views the United States as its main obstacle. It knows that the

UnitedStateswillnottakesidesinspecificterritorialdisputes.Italsoknowsthatthe

U.S. offer to facilitate a process to peacefully resolve the East Sea issues, while

welcomed by someASEANmembers, also caused concernbyothermembers.As

longasChinadoesnotinterferewiththefreedomandsafetyofnavigationthrough

theSouthChinaSeaU.S.materialinterestsarenotdirectlythreatened.TheU.S.can

onlyrespondusingdiplomaticmeansandsymbolicshowsofmilitarystrength.

TheothermajorpowersintheregionwillfollowU.S.leadershipratherthantakeon

a leadership role themselves. The U.S. is most effective if its supports ASEAN, a

dividedASEANplaysintoChinashands.Chinacalculatesthatthemajorpowerswill

respondbyurgingapeacefulsettlementofthedispute.Chinawillcontinuetoinsist

thatonly thepartiesdirectly involved shouldnegotiatebilaterallywithChina.

ASEAN policy at the moment is for bilateral discussions on bilateral issues, and

multilateraldiscussionswhere the interestsof thirdparties are involved. Inother

words,themajorpowerscanonlyintervenediplomatically.AslongasthePeoples

Liberation Army Navy refrains from intervention, the major powers will have t

exerciserestraint.

4. Inyourview,what shouldVietnamdo to resolve theSouthChina Seadisputes

peacefully?WhatshouldASEANdotomaintainpeaceandstability?

ANSWER: Vietnam must strengthen itself by ensuring unity at home and by

continually developing the capacity to exercise sovereignty over its Exclusive

EconomicZone.VietnammustengageinhighleveldiscussionswithChineseleaders

toworkoutan interim topreventmatters from furtherescalating.Vietnammust

forgea closepolitical relationshipwith thePhilippines,Malaysiaand Indonesia to

present a united front. Vietnam should support Indonesias leadership as ASEAN


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Chair in mapping out a diplomatic strategy to respond to Chinese assertiveness.

Vietnammustcontinually lobbythemajorpowersfortheirpoliticalanddiplomatic

support. In all these activities, Vietnam must develop an effective information

strategytowinoverthesupportoftheinternationalcommunity.

5. Inownview,what is the longtermmutualbenefitandpeacefulsolution forall

countriesinvolvedintheSouthChinaSeadispute?

ANSWER:Ifalltheconcernedcountriestoagreetoshelveterritorialdisputes,uphold

the statusquo, and adhere to the 2002DeclarationonConductofParties in the

South China Sea that would be a major step in reducing tensions. The parties

concerned shouldenter intobothbilateralnegotiationswheredirect interestsare

involved,andmultilateralnegotiationswhenthe interestsofthreeormoreparties

are involved. In the longer termASEAN coulddrafta treatyopen toaccessionby

outsidepowersthatwouldmaketheSouthChinaSeaaZoneofPeace,Cooperation

and Development. In the immediate term and longerterm the states concerned

couldexplorejointdevelopmentandsharingofresources.Theleastdifficultareais

jointmanagementoffisheries.

6.IfyouwereaVietnamese,whatwouldyoudonow?

ANSWER:If IwereaVietnamesecitizenIwouldwanttoexpressmyconcerntothe

government about the threat to national sovereignty posed by Chinese actions. I

wouldwantmygovernmenttoprovidereassurancethatithasastrategytodefend

Vietnams sovereignty and to gain the sympathy and support of the world

community. Iwould like to see thePrimeMinister, ForeignMinisterandDefence

Ministergivepublicspeechesinthemajorcitiesoutliningtheirviews.Theseshould

bebroadcastontelevisionandradioandprintedinthemedia.

AsaVietnamesecitizen Iwouldkeepmyselfas fully informedondevelopments in

theSouthChinaSeabyreadingasmuchaspossible.Iwould wantmygovernment

toprovide information.Because this isacomplex issue Iwouldwant toknow the

prosandconsofvariouspolicyoptions.

If Iwereastudent, Iwouldwantmy lecturers todiscuss this issue. Iwould like to

knowtheviewsofleadingVietnameseandforeignscholars.IfIhadfriendsoverseas

Iwouldwanttoexchangeviewswiththem.AboveallIwouldwanttoknowwhatis

motivatingChinaandhowapeacefulresolutiontothisissuecanbeachieved.


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Chinas Strategy in the South

China Sea and Prospect for

Armed Conflict

Carlyle A. Thayer

June 12, 2011

[clientnamedeleted]

In lightof thesecondcablecutting incidentbetweenaChinese fishingboatanda

Vietnameseexplorationship,wewouldlikeyourassessmentofthefollowing:

1 What isyourassessmentofChineseactions?How serious is it?Canweexpect

moreassertivenesslikethisfromtheChinese?

ANSWER: Chinese actions represent a new wave of aggressive assertion of

sovereigntyover theEastSea.China isestablishinga legalbasis fordemonstrating

that it manages the SouthChina Seaandhasadministrativejurisdictionover it.

Chinasactionsareseriousbecausetheyarenotbasedoncommonunderstandingof

international law.TheareevenmoreseriousbecauseChina refuses tomakeclear

precisely what it is claiming. Chinas claims are ambiguous and thus open to

misinterpretation.

Chineseactionswillundoubtedlyincrease.Itissteppinguptheconstructionofmore

ChinaSurveillanceVessels.And ithas launchedamassiveoilexplorationrigthat it

sayswillexplore in theSouthChinaSea.BitbybitChina isestablishinghegemony

over thewaterswithin its9dash lineUshapedmap.Chinasclaimcutsdirectly in

theExclusiveEconomicZonesofVietnamandthePhilippines.Chinasactionshaveto

potentialtodisruptifnothaltexplorationactivitiesbyVietnamandthePhilippines

thatarepartoftheireconomicdevelopprograms.

2 WhatisthelikelihoodofaclashbetweenVietnameseandChinesenavalforces?

Whatattitudedoestheinternationalcommunitytakeonthesedevelopments?What

actiondoyouexpectVietnamtotake?

ANSWER:

So

far

China

has

used

civilian

China

Maritime

Surveillance

vessels.

A

clash

betweennavalforcesispossibleifpresenttensionsarenotaddressedandcontinue

toescalate.VietnamhassenttheBinhMinh02backtosea tocontinueexploring.

Thistimeitwasaccompaniedbyeightescorts.IfChinatriestodisrupttheiractivities

Vietnamwillbeforcedtorespond.

VietnamhasannounceditwillconductlivefiringexercisesintheEastSea.Chinaalso

stated itwill conduct naval exercises in the SouthChina Sea. There is always the



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2

danger of misunderstanding and an incident should these forces encounter one

another.

At the moment Vietnam has experienced two incidents where the cables of

exploration ships have been cut. The Philippines to have recorded up to seven

incidents of Chinese encroachment into its waters, including shooting at its

fishermen. Chinese construction on one rock and intimidation of one of itsexplorationvessels.AlltheseincidentsarebilateralbetweenChinaandthecountry

concerned.Theydonotthreatensafetyorfreedomofnavigation.

The international communitywill look to the countries concerned to resolve this

disputeinthefirstinstance.TheleadershiproleoftheUnitedStatesiscrucial.Itthe

U.S.takealeadingroleitsallieswillfollow.

Thekey isASEANandwhetherornot itcan reachconsensusonapolicy towards

China. IfASEAN canpresentaunited front itwillget the supportof theU.S.and

othermajorpowerssuchasJapan,India,AustraliaandSouthKorea.

Vietnamneedstomaintainunityonthehomefrontanddemonstratetheexercise

sovereignty over its Exclusive Economic Zone. Vietnam must be firm but not

provocative. In the longer termVietnamneeds todevelopanddeployappropriate

shipsandaircrafttomonitorandmaintainsurveillanceoveritsEEZ.

Vietnam should form close political relations with the Philippines, Malaysia and

Indonesia and develop a common policy. Vietnam should support Indonesias

leadershipasChairofASEANinbuildingconsensusofallitstenmembers.

VietnamneedstolobbyallrelevantpowerswithaninterestintheSouthChinaSea

andsecuretheirsupportforASEAN.ThemajorpowerswilllooktoASEANfirstand

thentheywilllooktotheUnitedStates.

VietnamneedstopressureChinaforhighlevelmeetingstopreservethestatusquo

andtolowertensions.

Vietnams entire strategy isdependentonbeing viewedas the victim. IfVietnam

becomestoassertiveorprovocativeinrelationswithChina,itwillbeseenaspartof

theproblem.ThiswillcauseASEANtoloseitsunity.

3 DoesChinahaveagrandstrategybehindthisassertiveness? IsChinaseeking to

establishsovereigncontroloverallmaritimeterritorywithinitsUshapedline?

ANSWER:ChinaslongtermstrategicplanistobuildupnavalpowertodetertheU.S.

NavyfromoperatinginthesocalledfirstislandchainoffitseastcoastfromJapan

to Indonesia. Chinas strategic plan is to develop naval power to protect its

commercialinterestsandsealinesofcommunicationfromtheMiddleEasttoChina

throughtheSouthChinaSea.

Chinawillbecome increasinglydependenton importedsourcesofenergyoiland

gas.Chinasstrategy istoestablishasmuchcontroloverhydrocarbonresources in

theSouthChinaSeaas itcan.Thismeansestablishinghegemonyover the islands

andwaterswithin its9dotted lineUshapedmap.RecentChineseassertiveness is

aimed at preventing Vietnam and the Philippines from exploiting these resources

anddrawinginforeignoilcompaniestodevelopoilandgas.InChinasview,ifthey

donotactnow,Chinasclaimtoindisputablesovereigntywillbeundermined.


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South China Sea: Explaining

Chinas Cable Cutting Tactic

Carlyle A. Thayer

June 12, 2011

[clientnamedeleted]

WiththenewdevelopmentintheEastSeaonJune9(China'sfishingboatdeployeda

"cablecuttingdevice"andgotittrappedinanetworkofunderwatercablesinuseby

ashiphiredbyVietnam),Iwouldlikeyourassessmentofthefollowing:

1 HowdoyouassessChina'snewactionintheEastSea?Manyexpertsforecastthat

Chinawillstepupthiskindofactivity;howseriousisitintheshortterm?

ANSWER: Chinese actions represent a new wave of aggressive assertion of

sovereigntyover theEastSea.China isestablishinga legalbasis fordemonstrating

that it manages the SouthChina Seaandhasadministrativejurisdictionover it.

Chinasactionsareseriousbecausetheyarenotbasedoncommonunderstandingof

international law.TheareevenmoreseriousbecauseChina refuses tomakeclear

precisely what it is claiming. Chinas claims are ambiguous and thus open to

misinterpretation.

Chineseactionswillundoubtedlyincrease.Itissteppinguptheconstructionofmore

ChinaSurveillanceVessels.And ithas launchedamassiveoilexplorationrigthat it

sayswillexplore in theSouthChinaSea.BitbybitChina isestablishinghegemony

over thewaterswithin its9dash lineUshapedmap.Chinasclaimcutsdirectly in

theExclusiveEconomicZonesofVietnamandthePhilippines.Chinasactionshaveto

potentialtodisruptifnothaltexplorationactivitiesbyVietnamandthePhilippines

thatarepartoftheireconomicdevelopprograms.

2 Doyousee thepossibilityofaclashbetweenVietnam'snavyandChina'snaval

forces?Whatwillbetheattitudeofthe internationalcommunityifconflicterupts?

WhatshouldVietnamdowhenthisoccurs?

ANSWER:SofarChinahasusedcivilianChinaMaritimeSurveillancevessels.Aclash

betweennavalforcesispossibleifpresenttensionsarenotaddressedandcontinue

toescalate.VietnamhassenttheBinhMinh02backtosea tocontinueexploring.

Thistimeitwasaccompaniedbyeightescorts.IfChinatriestodisrupttheiractivities

Vietnamwillbeforcedtorespond.

VietnamhasannounceditwillconductlivefiringexercisesintheEastSea.Chinaalso

stated itwill conductnaval exercises in the SouthChina Sea. There is always the

danger ofmisunderstanding and an incident should these forces encounter one

another.



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2

At the moment Vietnam has experienced two incidents where the cables of

exploration ships have been cut. The Philippines to have recorded up to seven

incidents of Chinese encroachment into its waters, including shooting at its

fishermen. Chinese construction on one rock and intimidation of one of its

explorationvessels.AlltheseincidentsarebilateralbetweenChinaandthecountry

concerned.Theydonotthreatensafetyorfreedomofnavigation.

The international communitywill look to the countries concerned to resolve this

disputeinthefirstinstance.TheleadershiproleoftheUnitedStatesiscrucial.Itthe

U.S.takealeadingroleitsallieswillfollow.

Thekey isASEANandwhetherornot itcan reachconsensusonapolicy towards

China. IfASEAN canpresentaunited front itwillget the supportof theU.S.and

othermajorpowerssuchasJapan,India,AustraliaandSouthKorea.

Vietnamneedstomaintainunityonthehomefrontanddemonstratetheexercise

sovereignty over its Exclusive Economic Zone. Vietnam must be firm but not

provocative. In the longer termVietnamneeds todevelopanddeployappropriate

shipsandaircrafttomonitorandmaintainsurveillanceoveritsEEZ.

Vietnam should form close political relations with the Philippines,Malaysia and

Indonesia and develop a common policy. Vietnam should support Indonesias

leadershipasChairofASEANinbuildingconsensusofallitstenmembers.

VietnamneedstolobbyallrelevantpowerswithaninterestintheSouthChinaSea

andsecuretheirsupportforASEAN.ThemajorpowerswilllooktoASEANfirstand

thentheywilllooktotheUnitedStates.

VietnamneedstopressureChinaforhighlevelmeetingstopreservethestatusquo

andtolowertensions.

Vietnams entire strategy isdependentonbeing viewedas the victim. IfVietnam

becomestoassertiveorprovocativeinrelationswithChina,itwillbeseenaspartof

theproblem.ThiswillcauseASEANtoloseitsunity.

3 In your opinion, are recent developments part of Chinas strategic plan?How

muchpreparationandtimehasChinaput into itsstrategy?Whyhavetheychosen

thismomenttoturntheirUshapedmapintoareality?

ANSWER:ChinaslongtermstrategicplanistobuildupnavalpowertodetertheU.S.

NavyfromoperatinginthesocalledfirstislandchainoffitseastcoastfromJapan

to Indonesia. Chinas strategic plan is to develop naval power to protect its

commercialinterestsandsealinesofcommunicationfromtheMiddleEasttoChina

throughtheSouthChinaSea.

Chinawillbecome increasinglydependenton importedsourcesofenergyoiland

gas.Chinasstrategy istoestablishasmuchcontroloverhydrocarbonresources in

theSouthChinaSeaas itcan.Thismeansestablishinghegemonyover the islands

andwaterswithin its9dotted lineUshapedmap.RecentChineseassertiveness is

aimed at preventing Vietnam and the Philippines from exploiting these resources

anddrawinginforeignoilcompaniestodevelopoilandgas.InChinasview,ifthey

donotactnow,Chinasclaimtoindisputablesovereigntywillbeundermined.


8/12


South China Sea: Is China on

a Collision Course?

Carlyle A. Thayer

June 13, 2011

[clientnamedeleted]

I'veseensomeanalystssaythattensionsarerisingintheSouthChinaSea,andI've

seensomeoftheofficialVietnamesecomplaintsaboutChina'sactions.Ialsonoticed

therewerepublicprotestdemonstrationsinVietnamonthisissue.Howseriousisit?

Couldyoupleaseprovideanassessment?

ANSWER: Iam tempted to reply thateverything isnormal.Chinahas indisputable

sovereigntyover theNansha islandsandadjacentwaters from theHandynasty to

thepresent.Despiteerroneousreportsandfalseinformation,evenrumoursspread

by thePhilippinesandVietnam,China iseffectivelymanaging theSouthChinaSea

and exercising its sovereignjurisdiction.All accusations against China are untrue.

Chinawillneveruseforceandwishesforapeacefulresolutionofterritorialdisputes

tobesettledbilaterallybythecountriesdirectlyconcerned.InthemeantimeChina

willconductroutinenavalexercises in thewesternPacific later thismonth.Anew

megaoilexplorationrigwillexploreforoilandgassomewhere intheSouthChina

Sea.

In reality a series of unilateral actions by China have raised serious tensions and

potentiallysetChinaonacollisioncoursewithVietnamand thePhilippines.China

actionswilltestnotonlyASEANunitybuttheUSPhilippinesalliance.

ThePhilippinesalleges thatChinahas instigatedbetween fiveandseven incidents

thisyear.OnFebruary25th aJianghuVClassmissilefrigate,Dongguan560,ordered

Filipinofishermentoleavecontestedwatersandhurriedthemalongbyfiringthree

shotsoff thebowofoneboat.OnMarch2nd twoChineseMaritime Surveillance

boatsorderedaPhilippinesoilexplorationship to leave theReedBankarea.They

threatened to ram the ship. In another incident, Chinese boats deposited

construction material on an uninhabited reef and left markers and a buoy. The

PhilippinesprotestedalloftheincidentsexcepttheFebruary25thone.

AsforVietnam,Chinaonceagainimposeditsannualunilateralfishingban.Nothing

newhere,VietnamreportsChinesefishermenhavebeenencroachingonitsfishing

groundsinlargernumbersthanbefore.Moreseriously,onMay26thandJune9th,

Chinese boats cut the cables of Vietnamese seismic ships operating well within

VietnamsEEZ.Vietnamputtheship involved intheMay26th incidentbacktosea

withaneightvesselescort.VietnamhasprotestedeachandeveryChineseaction.



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While all thiswas going onChina launched amegaoil exploration rig and said it

would explore for oil in the South China Sea. On June 9th China warned the

PhilippinesandVietnamtostopoilexplorationandannouncedthatitwouldconduct

routinenavalexercisesinthewesternPacific.

Chinas actions have provoked two rounds of public protests in Vietnam, with

separatedemonstrations inHanoiandHoChiMinhCity.Vietnamhasbeensubjecttohundredsofcyberattacksonitswebsites,includinggovernmentones.Vietnams

PrimeMinisterhasgivenapublicspeechwithastrongdefenceofsovereignty.And

mostsignificantly,Vietnamwillbeconductingninehoursofnavallivefiringexercise

offitscentralcoasttoday.

ChinaandtheclaimantstatesofSoutheastAsiaareonapotentialcollisioncourse.

Chinasassertionof indisputablesovereigntyover theNansha islandsandadjacent

waters,whenmarriedwithits9dottedlineUshapedmap,cutsdeepintotheEEZs

declaredbyVietnamandthePhilippines.Chinahasnevermadeclearexactlywhatit

isclaimingtothereisambiguityoverpreciselywhichareasareindispute.

So far the PLAN has not been involved. All the reported incidents have involved

China Maritime Surveillance ships and possible Fishery Administration boats. The

PhilippinesandVietnamdonotalwaysmakeclearwhatChineseshipswereinvolved.

ButtheMay26thincidentiswelldocumented.

Up to these incidents China and ASEAN were quietly working on a formerly

moribundJointWorkingGrouptoImplementtheDeclarationonConductofParties

in the SouthChina Sea. Theywere hungupon guidelines for theworking group.

ASEAN and to meet first, establish a common position, and then negotiate with

China.Chinawantsbilateraldiscussionswiththecountriesdirectlyconcerned.There

werehopes that amore legally binding codeof conduct for the SouthChina Sea

wouldeventuate.TheDOCstenthanniversaryfallsinNovembernextyear.

ChinasnewwaveofassertivenesswillplacetheSouthChinaSeabackontheagenda

foraseriesofASEANrelatedsummitsandmeetingstobeheldinJulyandtheEast

AsiaSummit inOctober.Chinawillnotrelishthe interventionbytheUSandother

partieswhohavenodirectclaimtotheSouthChinaSea.ItispossibletheEAScould

be a casualty if China objects to anydiscussionon the South China Sea.China is

already out numbered in the EAS and in Beijings view this might not be a bad

outcome.

AllinallrecenttensionsintheSouthChinaSeawilltestASEANunityandcohesion,

U.S. resolve and engagement in Southeast Asia, and the USPhilippines mutual

securitytreaty.SinoVietnameserelationswillexperiencestrainsand ifneitherside

blinksanavalclashislikelyoutcome.


10/12


South China Sea: What Are

U.S. Interests?

Carlyle A. Thayer

June 13, 2011

[clientnamedeleted]

Some observers have speculated that the involvement of the US in the dispute

wouldhingeonhowitsowninterestwouldbeaffectedinthisregard.Whatisyour

assessmentofthis?

ANSWER:OfcoursetheUnitedStateswillactonitsnationalinterest.Ithasdeclared

thatsafetyandfreedomofnavigation intheSouthChinaSea isanationalinterest.

China is at pains not to interfere with this interest. If China did it would be

confrontedwithU.S.navalandairpower.

TheUnitedStateshashigherinterestsindevelopingagoodrelationshipwithChina

includingaworkingmilitarytomilitary relationship.TheU.S.doesnotwant tobe

entrappeddrawnintotakingsidesinterritorialdisputesintheSouthChinaSea.

U.S.relationswithVietnamandthePhilippinesdiffer.ThePhilippinesisatreatyally

through

the

1951

mutual

security

treaty.

This

was

signed

before

the

Philippines

declared the Kalayaan IslandGroup in the South China Sea. TheU.S. argues the

treatydoesnotcover territoryacquiredafter the treatywassigned.However, the

U.S.has indicated itwouldmeet itstreatyobligationstoconsultwithManila ifthe

armed forces of the Philippines, including navy ships,were attacked. TheUnited

StateshasnosuchrelationshipwithVietnamanddefencetiesareminimal.

TheUnitedStateshasamoregeneral interest inmaintainingpeaceandstability in

theSouthChinaSeaand inseeingASEANplayacentralrole.TheU.S.willprovide

political and diplomatic support if China attempts to intimidate or bully regional

states.

ThebottomlineisthatthePhilippinesandVietnammustlookfirsttothemselvesto

defendtheirsovereigntyintheirExclusiveEconomicZones.



11/12


South China Sea Tensions: Is

a Resolution Possible?

Carlyle A. Thayer

June 14, 2011

[clientnamedeleted]

Q1.WhatisyourassessmentofthelatestuppingoftensionsintheSouthChinaSea?

ANSWER:BothChinaandVietnamareheadingforacollisioncourse iftheydonot

stopuppingtheanteinresponsetoeachother.VietnamhascounteredtheactionsbycivilianChinaMaritimeSurveillancevesselsincuttingcablesbysendoutescorts

toaccompanyitsoilexplorationvessels.IfChinasendsinfurthershipstoenforceits

jurisdiction there is every likelihood of an incident such as a collision or even

exchangeofgunfiredependingontheprovocation.

Chinas responsehasbeenhostile from thebeginning.Chinadidnotevenoffer to

investigate any of the incidents. Chinese behavior has the potential to scupper

negotiations underway between China and ASEAN over adopting guidelines to

implementthe2002DeclarationonConductofPartiesintheSouthChinaSea(DOC)

andthussetbackplansforamorelegallybindingCodeofConduct.

These recent incident in the South China Sea, involving the Philippines as well,

means that territorialdisputeswill feature in JulywhenASEANmeets to hold its

annual summit and related meetings. International pressure will build up on all

parties,Chinainparticular,toceaseprovocationsandtonegotiateapeacefulmodus

vivendi. If China reacts negatively this could impact on the East Asia Summit

scheduled for Jakarta inOctoberwhen theUnitedStates isexpected toattendfor

thefirsttime.

Q2.HowdoyouseethispanningoutnowthatVietnamhasconducted its livefire

drill?

ANSWER:Vietnams live firedrillswere somethingofananticlimax.The involved

live firingbycoastalartilleryduring thedayandnavalgun fire in theevening.No

antishipmissileswere test fired.Theareaconcernedstretched from thecoast to

HonQng island 40 kilometres away. The exercisewere not conducted anywhere

nearwherethetwocablecuttingincidentstookplace.Andtheywereconductedso

closetolandthattherewasnopossibilityofanyChineseshipsbeinginvolved.

Chinareactedpredictablyhystericallyandoverthetop.China,infact,announced

that itwouldbeconductingnavalexercises in theWesternPacificbeforeVietnam

announceditslivefiringdrill.Chineseshipswillonlybethreatenediftheyintrudeon



12/12

2

Vietnam territorialwaters and contiguous zone, and not the outer reaches of its

ExclusiveEconomicZone.

Q3.TheforeignmediahassaidthatVietnamhascalledfor internationalmediation

andwantstheUStohelp.LastyeartheUSsaidaresolutionoftheSouthChinaSea

disputewasinits"nationalinterests" Whatexactlyarethoseinterests?

ANSWER:Vietnamspositionwasannouncedinresponsetoaquestionbyareporter

ataForeignMinistrypressconference.Itwasnotanewinitiative.

U.S. interests are to maintain the safety and freedom of navigation in the

internationalshippinglanesthattraversetheSouthChinaSea.TheUShasanational

interesttoseethatUSownedshipsandthoseofitsalliesandfriendsandshipsthat

carrycargotoandfromtheUnitedStatesarenotmolested.

TheUShasalsodeclared ithasaninterest inpreventinganycountryfromexerting

hegemony over the South China Sea. But theUSwill not take sides in territorial

disputes.

Q4.Realistically,whatkindofresolutioncantherebetothisissue?Itseemstohave

goneonforsolongthata"resolution"willbeextremelydifficulttoachieve.

ANSWER:SettlingterritorialdisputesintheSouthChinaSeamayneverbepossible.

Chinasclaims to indisputablesovereigntyovermostof theSouthChinaSea isnot

grounded in international law and are thus not amenable to negotiation. Chinas

claimscutsdeeplyintotheExclusiveEconomicZonesdeclaredbythePhilippinesand

Vietnam.

In themeantime, current tensions could be addressed by getting all the parties

concerned toagree torefrain from the threatoruseof forceand tomaintain the

statusquo,andcompletingnegotiationson theguidelines to implement theDOC.

Thiswouldbringsomemeasureofstabilityandpredictabilitytorelationsbetween

Chinaandlittoralstates.ThisisthebestthatcanbehopedforbecausetheDOChas

already been agreed by China and ASEANmembers. The various suggestions for

cooperative action in the DOC could be implemented both as practical and

confidencebuildingmeasures.

In the longer terms sovereignty disputes could be shelved and the countries

concernedcouldagreeonjointdevelopmentoftheregionsnaturalresources.They

couldalsoadoptamorestringentcodeofconductbutforthistobelegallybindingit

wouldhavetohavetheforceofatreaty.

Documents

Thayer China’s Strategy in the South China Sea and the Prospect for Armed Conflict