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The South China Seas Roiled Waters:Diplomatic Settlement or Destabilizing

Naval Arms Build Up?

Professor Carl ThayerProfessor Carl ThayerAustralian Institute of International AffairsAustralian Institute of International Affairs

(ACT Branch)(ACT Branch)

July 7, 2009July 7, 2009

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OverviewOverview

Strategic OverviewStrategic Overview

Maritime territorial claimsMaritime territorial claims

Chinese assertivenessChinese assertivenessRoiled waters, 2009Roiled waters, 2009

Yulin Naval Base, Hainan IslandYulin Naval Base, Hainan Island

Naval arms build upNaval arms build upDiplomatic prospectsDiplomatic prospects

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1. Strategic Overview1. Strategic Overview

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Paracel (Xisha

or Hoang Sa)

and

Spratly(Nansha or

Truong Sa)

Archipelagoes

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2. Maritime territorial claims2. Maritime territorial claims

Chinas

historical

claims undefined

stroke

marks ona map

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Inter-mixed pattern of occupation

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3. Chinese assertiveness 20073. Chinese assertiveness 2007

BP oil and gas plans shelved temporarilyBP oil and gas plans shelved temporarilyunder Chinese pressure (March-June)under Chinese pressure (March-June)

Chinese naval vessels detain 4 VietnameseChinese naval vessels detain 4 Vietnamese

fishing craft (April)fishing craft (April) Chinese sink one Vietnamese boat and killChinese sink one Vietnamese boat and kill

one fisherman (9one fisherman (9thth July)July)

PLAN naval exercise in Paracels (November)PLAN naval exercise in Paracels (November)

National Peoples Council creates ShansaNational Peoples Council creates Shansacounty level administrative districtcounty level administrative district

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Chinese Response to Vietnams

Maritime Strategy to 2020

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Chinas Invasion Plan

Posted on Chinese web sites in August 2008

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4. Roiled Waters, 20094. Roiled Waters, 2009

UN Commission on the Limits of theUN Commission on the Limits of the

Continental Shelf (CLCS)Continental Shelf (CLCS) deadline May 13deadline May 13

Malaysias Prime Minister visits SwallowMalaysias Prime Minister visits Swallow

Reef to assert sovereigntyReef to assert sovereignty

Philippines Archipelagic Baselines ActPhilippines Archipelagic Baselines Act

Malaysia-Vietnam make joint submissionMalaysia-Vietnam make joint submissionto UN CLCS; Vietnam also submitsto UN CLCS; Vietnam also submits

separate submission; China lodgesseparate submission; China lodges

protestprotest

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UN Commission on Limits of Continental Shelf May 13, 2009

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USNS Impeccable IncidentUSNS Impeccable Incident

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Unilateral Chinese

Fishing Ban,May 16-August 1, 2009

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5. Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island5. Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island

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SanyaSanya

Naval BaseNaval Base

5 Aug 05 to5 Aug 05 to28 Feb 0828 Feb 08

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Yulin Naval Base

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Deep Sea Trench SSBN Patrol Area

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Chinas String of Pearls

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Chinese Airstrip Woody Island, Paracel Archipelago

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Fiery Cross and Mischief ReefsFiery Cross and Mischief Reefs

Consolidation of facilitieson Fiery Cross and

permanent naval presence

at Mischief Reef

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6. Naval arms build up6. Naval arms build up

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Vietnamese Naval ModernisationVietnamese Naval Modernisation

Tarantul Frigate

BPS 500 Missile Boat

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Area Denial Submarine AcquisitionsArea Denial Submarine Acquisitions

China - 5 SSBNs

by 2010

Singapore - 4

Malaysia - 2Indonesia - 3

Vietnam - 6

Australia - 12

US re-

deployments to

Western

Pacific

Vietnam in market for up to six

Project 636 Kilo class submarines

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6. Prospects for Diplomatic Settlement6. Prospects for Diplomatic Settlement

BilateralBilateralChina-Vietnam + PhilippinesChina-Vietnam + Philippines

China-MalaysiaChina-Malaysia

Vietnam + Indonesia & MalaysiaVietnam + Indonesia & Malaysia

MultilateralMultilateralASEAN Code of Conduct?ASEAN Code of Conduct?

ASEAN Regional ForumASEAN Regional Forum

Outside Balancers United StatesOutside Balancers United States

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