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8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
1/16
1
Background Briefing:
Vietnam: Analysis of Politburoand Secretariat Vote of
Confidence1
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 19, 2015
C C C (C)
512. . A
C C .
HD 981 C .
A. D HD 981
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Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123
8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
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2
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8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
3/16
3
).
. , ,
( ) .
152 22 174 23 197
149 30 179 18 197
145 41 186 11 197
144 33 177 20 197
137 33 170 27 197
136 44 180 17 197 135 40 175 22 197
128 57 185 12 197
127 62 189 8 197
126 49 175 22 197
122 50 172 25 197
116 73 189 8 197
116 46 162 35 197
A 112 64 176 21 197
110 46 156 41 197
100 64 164 33 197
(//.../2015/01/
.).
2
. 3
.
.
.
.
8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
4/16
4
. ? ?
H C 100 (51%) 152 (77%)
52 (26%).
( ) H C 128 (65%).E
.
H C D, ,
. H C H A, H
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. D H C 15.
A
H C C ( 4). C 156 (79%) 189
(96%), 33 (17%). H
C .
( )
D 77.15 11.17 88.32 11.88 75.63 15.22 90.86 9.14
73.60 20.81 91.42 5.58
73.10 16.75 89.85 10.15
D 69.54 16.75 86.29 13.71
D 69.03 22.34 91.37 8.63
68.53 20.3 88.83 11.17
64.97 28.93 93.91 6.09
H 64.47 31.47 95.94 4.06
H 63.95 24.87 88.83 11.17
D H 61.93 25.38 87.31 12.69 58.88 37.06 95.94 4.06
58.88 23.35 82.23 17.77
H A 56.85 32.49 89.34 10.66
H 55.84 23.35 79.19 20.81
50.76 32.49 83.25 16.75
(://.../2015/01/
. ).
( ) C 176 (89%). D 5.
8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
5/16
5
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. ).
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8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
6/16
6
C . 5
C
C . 8 (4%)
41 (21%) 33 (17%). ( )
C 21 (11%). D 9.
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. ).
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8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
7/16
7
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8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
8/16
8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
9/16
9
,
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1949
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8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
10/16
8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
11/16
11
, ,
//.../2015/01/
..
: A. , : A
, , 19, 2015. A
. ( ). .
.
A 2002.
8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
12/16
Background Briefing:
Vietnam: Analysis of Politburoand Secretariat Vote of
Confidence - Supplement
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 19, 2015
: A
C, ,
.
C (C) C
C C 10.
1 152
2 149
3 145
4 144
5 137
6 136
7 135
8 128
9 12710 126
11 122
12 116
13 116
14 A 112
110
100
Total
Thayer ConsultancyABN # 65 648 097 123
8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
13/16
2
( 1 ), (
2 ),
( 3 ).
B B
.
.
.
1 127 62 189
2 116 73 189
3
145 41 186
4 128 57 185
5 136 44 180
6 149 30 1797 144 33 177
A 128 47 176
8 A 112 64 176
9 135 40 175
10 126 49 175
11 152 22 174
12 122 50 172
13 137 33 170
14 100 64 164
15 116 46 16216 110 46 156
(//...///
.).
(
)
.
8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
14/16
3
1 189 8 181
2 189 8 181
3
186 11 175
4
185 12 173
5 180 17 163
6 179 18 161
7 177 20 157
A 176 21 155
8 A 176 21 155
9 175 22 153
10 175 22 153
11 174 23 151
12 172 25 147
13 170 27 143
14 164 33 134
15 162 35 12716 156 41 115
+
(
)
.
.
1.5.
.
. .
4 .
8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
15/16
4
5
.
.
.
5
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.
2016, : ,
, , .
:
.
1949
, : ,
. B A
.
8/10/2019 Thayer Vietnam Results of Politburo Vote of Confidence
16/16
5
C C
2016.
.
3 3 3 1 2.5
9 1 1 2 3.25
12 2 2 3 4.75
2 6 6 5 4.75 8 4 4 4 5
6 5 5 6 5.5
4 7 7 7 6.25
1 11 11 8 7.75
7 9 9 9 8.5
10 10 10 10 10
5 13 13 11 10.5
A 14 8 8 12 10.5
11 12 12 13 12
13 15 15 14 14.25
16 14 14 15 14.75
15 16 15 16 15.5
( .)
.
( + + + ).
Source:
: C A. , : A
C , , 19,
2015. A . ( ).
BCB
.
C
. C
A 2002.