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The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon The views, opinions, forecasts and estimates herein are those of the CoreLogic Office of the Chief Economist, are subject to change without notice and do not necessarily reflect the position of CoreLogic or its management. The Office of the Chief Economist makes every effort to provide accurate and reliable information, however, it does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, timeliness or suitability for any particular purpose. CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

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Page 1: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

The 2017 Housing& Economic OutlookFrank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist

@DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEconThe views, opinions, forecasts and estimates herein are those of the CoreLogic Office of the Chief Economist, are subject to change without notice

and do not necessarily reflect the position of CoreLogic or its management. The Office of the Chief Economist makes every effort to provide

accurate and reliable information, however, it does not guarantee accuracy, completeness, timeliness or suitability for any particular purpose.CORELOGIC and the CoreLogic logo are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries.

Page 2: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

Household Mobility & Mortgage Market Trends

Household Trends:

–Millenniums have added to housing need: renters today, owners tomorrow

–Homeowners (primarily Baby Boomers) are staying in their homes longer

–Interstate buyers driven by affordability, jobs, weather

Mortgage Trends:

–Home-price growth & lessened mobility prompts more home-improvement

–High LTV & debt-to-income products are in market, but need good credit

–While overall credit risk remains low, fraud risk increases

Page 3: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

Large Demographic Tailwind Has ArrivedLargest Age

Cohort

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population as of July 1, 2015

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

Age in 2015

34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Average Age

First-time

Homebuyer

Average Age

Repeat Buyer

Population

in 2015

(Millions)

Page 4: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

16%

12%

8%

4%

20%

Millennial Share of Buyers Lower in Expensive Markets

Share of Purchase-Money Applicants Aged Under 30

Source: CoreLogic

(purchase loan

applications,

Jan-Oct 2016)

Page 5: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

Americans Are Keeping Their Homes Longer

8

6

4

2

10

12

Number of Years A Home Is Owned (Median)

14

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Source: American Housing Survey for the United States, various years (difference between

survey year and median year owner-occupant moved into unit), CoreLogic public records for

United States (length of time between recorded sales on same home).

2010 2015

Home

Sellers

Owner

Occupants

Page 6: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

Interstate Buyers Seek Affordability, Jobs and Warmth

Jan-Oct 2016)Ratio of Buyers Moving Out to Moving InRatio of Buyers Moving In to Moving Out

All Ages

NY, NJ

NC, FL

CA, CO

VA, FL

CA, CO

CA, FL

CA, TX

CA, OR

NY, PA

FL, KY

VA, FL

NJ, FL

MD, FL

FL, IN

TX, NV

NJ, FLSource: CoreLogic

(purchase loan

applications,

States in

Green are Top

2 Sources

States in Red

are Top 2

Destinations

11 22 33 44

Page 7: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

Millennials: Affordability & Jobs

Baby Boomers: Affordability & Warmth

Source: CoreLogic (purchase loan

Ages 25-34 Ages 55 and Older

applications, Jan-Oct 2016)

NYNC

VA CA

AZCA

ORNY

KY

VA NJ

NY NC CA

FLCA FL NY

GA

MDIN

TXNJ

AZFL

FL

FL NJ

FLFL

AZFL

State in Green

is Top Source

State in Red is

Top Destination

Page 8: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

New-Home Sales Levels Highest in the SouthMonthly Number of New Sales (Average) New Home Sale Share

Based on

the Top 100

Metros for

Home Sales

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Houston TX

Dallas TX

Atlanta GA

Phoenix AZ

Austin TX

Charlotte NC

Washington DC

San Antonio TX

Orlando FL

Tampa FL

Denver CO

Nashville TN

Riverside CA

New York NY

Raleigh NC

Las Vegas NV

Jacksonville FL

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Source: CoreLogic. Left: average monthly new homes sold Oct 2015 to Sept 2016; Right: new-home share of sales Oct 2015 to Sept 2016; top 100 CBSAs based on new and existing home sales.

25%

Raleigh NC

Austin TX

Charleston SC

San Antonio TX

Provo UT

Houston TX

Columbia SC

Dallas TX

Charlotte NC

Jacksonville FL

Naples FL

Lakeland FL

Baton Rouge LA

Boise ID

Nashville TN

Orlando FL

Las Vegas NV

Page 9: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

Highest Growth New-Home Markets (top 100 metros)

Source: CoreLogic, percent change, number of new-home sales Oct 2015-to-Sept

Highest Growth New-Home Metros0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Tucson AZ2016 vs. Oct 2014-to-Sept 2015, based on 100 largest metros for new home sales.

Boise ID

Port St. Lucie FL

Sacramento CA

Daphne AL

Anaheim CA

Salt Lake City UT

Colorado Springs CO

Phoenix AZ

Knoxville TN

Des Moines IA

San Diego CA

Dallas TX

Atlanta GA

Portland OR

Greeley CO

Pensacola FL

Tampa FL

Deltona FL

Nashville TN

Metros with:

• good affordability,

• good job growth,

• good weather

have had the highest

growth in new-home

sales over the last year

Page 10: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (December 6, 2016 release)

140

120

160

200

5% 180

220

2012 2014 2016 2018

43%

CoreLogic Home Price Index (January 2000 = 100)

- Forecast -

U.S. Home Prices: Price to Moderate to 4.7% in 2017

Page 11: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

HELOC Volume Up in 2016Approved HELOCs (Billions of Dollars)

$400

$350

$300

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$02000 2004 2008 2012 2016

(Through September,

Annualized)

Source: CoreLogic public records, second-lien HELOCs placed more than 60 days after first lien.

Page 12: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

2016 Loans Have Less Credit Risk Than Pre-2009 LoansCoreLogic Housing Credit Index (2001 = 100)

36

0

2001 2003 2006

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2008 2011 2013 2016

Mo

reR

isk

Le

ss

Ris

k

2001-2003

Benchmark

Source: CoreLogic Housing Credit Index (through 2016Q3)

2001-03

mean +1 s.d.

Page 13: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

Credit Score Less Than 640

LTV Share 95 And Above

DTI Share 43 And Above

Non-OwnerOccupancy Share

Condo Co-op Share

Low & No Doc Share

75

50

25

0

100

125

150

Benchmark (2001 and 2002 Originations)

Current (2016:Q3)

Mortgage Credit Risk Along Six DimensionsFirst-Lien Home Purchase Originations

37Source: CoreLogic Housing Credit Index

Page 14: The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook - CoreLogic · 2018. 3. 22. · The 2017 Housing & Economic Outlook Frank E. Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist @DrFrankNothaft @CoreLogicEcon

Beginning 2009, Excellent Loan Performance

38

Serious Delinquency Rate by Origination Cohort

1999-2003 2004-2008 2009-2014

Source: CoreLogic: March 2016