The 50-day has crossed below the 200-day on the Daily Dow chart

8/9/2019 The 50-day has crossed below the 200-day on the Daily Dow chart

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine

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July 8, 2010 The 50-day has cr ossed below the 200-day on the Dai ly Dow char t

When the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 200-day it is not a Sell Signal. Itssimply another confirmation that we are in a bear market where you are a seller of strength. Theyield on the US 10-Year note had the cross-over favoring lower yields on June 11th, but the lowyield is between my annual levels at 2.999 and 2.813. Comex gold is well above its 200-day at$1133.1 with the 50-day as resistance at $1215.4. Nymex crude oil had a negative cross-over onJune 23rd with the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages as resistances at $75.46 and$77.22. The negative cross-over for the euro led the way back on February 9th. For the Dow myweekly pivot is support at 9,856 with the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages asresistances at 10,338 and 10,362. Mortgage applications are rising for Refinancings, but stilldeclining for Home Purchases.

10-Year Note Semiannual and quarterly supports are 3.479 and 3.486 with my annual and weeklypivots at 2.999 and 2.941, and daily, annual, quarterly and semiannual resistances at 2.849, 2.813,

2.495 and 2.249. Yields should stop their decline between 2.999 and 2.813.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters


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Comex Gold Quarterly support is $1140.9 with annual support at $1115.2. Daily and semiannualpivots are $1196.5 and $1218.7, and weekly, semiannual and monthly resistances at $1238.4, $1260.8and $1279.3. The all time high of $1266.5 set on June 21stwas a test of Junes monthlyresistance and the $1260.8 to $1279.3 should be a significant top for gold.


Nymex Crude Oil Weekly and quarterly supports are $71.71 and $56.63 with daily and annual pivots

at $73.18 and $77.05, and monthly and semiannual resistances at $79.36 and $83.94, which shouldlimit the upside as the global economy slows down. The 200-day simple moving average provides aresistance at $77.22.



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The Euro Daily support is 1.2518 with monthly resistance at 1.2670 and the 200-day simple movingaverage at !.3750. Monthly, weekly and quarterly supports are 1.2035, 1.1957 and 1.1424.


Daily Dow: Weekly and daily supports are 9,856 and 9,653 with the 21-day, 50-day and 200-daysimple moving averages at 10,115, 10,338 and 10,362, and my annual pivot at 10,379. MOJO is tyingto rise from dipping into oversold territory with new semiannual and monthly resistances at 10,558 and

10,891 after my annual resistance at 11,235 was tested at the April 26th

high at 11,258, which markedthe end of the bear market rally that began in March 2009. We are in the second leg of the multi-yearbear market that began in October 2007.



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Other 50-day / 200-day Crossovers The S&P 500 had the crossover last Friday, but my annualsupport at 1014 held the day before. The other major averages have not had these bearish crossovers:NASDAQ, Transports, Russell 2000 and the SOX.

Mixed Readings for Mortgage Applications - Mortgage applications to refinance homes jumped9.2% last week to the highest level since May 2009. Mortgage applications to purchase homes sunk tonearly a 13-Year low. Low mortgage rates are the factor for higher demand for refinancings while theend of the home buyer tax credits on April 30th continues to drag demand for home purchases. Keep inmind that an application does not mean that a new loan has been approved and that applicants canhave multiple applications at several banks. Remember that while mortgage rates are at record lowsthat the spread versus the 10-Year US Treasury has widened from 115 basis points on March 31st to161 on Wednesday. This is not a sign of strength in the housing market!

Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

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The 50-day has crossed below the 200-day on the Daily Dow chart