PEAK OILPEAK OIL

GLOBALGLOBALWARMINGWARMING

ECONOMIC ECONOMIC INSTABILITYINSTABILITY

THE LONG EMERGENCYTHE LONG EMERGENCY

““The Long Emergency is an opportunity to The Long Emergency is an opportunity to pause, to think through our present course, pause, to think through our present course,

and to adjust to a saner path for the future. We and to adjust to a saner path for the future. We had best face facts: we really have no choice. had best face facts: we really have no choice.

The Long Emergency is a horrible predicament. The Long Emergency is a horrible predicament. It is also a wonderful opportunity to do a lot It is also a wonderful opportunity to do a lot

better. Let’s not squander this moment.”better. Let’s not squander this moment.”

——Albert Bates (paraphrased)Albert Bates (paraphrased)The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and CookbookThe Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook

““Inherent within the challenges of peak oil Inherent within the challenges of peak oil and climate change is an extraordinary and climate change is an extraordinary

opportunity to reinvent, rethink opportunity to reinvent, rethink and rebuild the world around us.” and rebuild the world around us.”

——Rob HopkinsRob HopkinsThe Transition HandbookThe Transition Handbook

““The real issue of our age is how we make The real issue of our age is how we make a graceful and ethical descent.” a graceful and ethical descent.”

David HolmgrenDavid HolmgrenPermaculture: Principles and PathwaysPermaculture: Principles and Pathways

Beyond SustainabilityBeyond Sustainability

The challenge of global climate change The challenge of global climate change makes a shift away from fossil fuels makes a shift away from fossil fuels necessary for planetary survivalnecessary for planetary survival..

The impending peak in oil and gas The impending peak in oil and gas production means that production means that the transition is the transition is inevitableinevitable..

Our only choice is whether to Our only choice is whether to proactively proactively undertake the transitionundertake the transition now—or later. now—or later.

““I believe that a lower-energy, more localized I believe that a lower-energy, more localized future, in which we move from being future, in which we move from being

consumers to being producer/consumers, consumers to being producer/consumers, where food, energy and other essentials are where food, energy and other essentials are

locally produced, local economies are locally produced, local economies are strengthened and we have learned to live more strengthened and we have learned to live more within our means is a step towards something within our means is a step towards something extraordinary, not a step away from something extraordinary, not a step away from something

inherently irreplaceable.” inherently irreplaceable.”

——Rob HopkinsRob HopkinsThe Transition HandbookThe Transition Handbook

Local production of food, energy and goodsLocal production of food, energy and goods Local development of currency, government Local development of currency, government

and cultureand culture Reducing consumption while improving Reducing consumption while improving

environmental and social conditionsenvironmental and social conditions Developing an exemplary community that Developing an exemplary community that

can be a working model for other can be a working model for other communities when the effects of energy communities when the effects of energy decline become more intensedecline become more intense

““The most radical thing The most radical thing you can do you can do

is stay home.”is stay home.”——Gary SnyderGary Snyder

Percentage of food consumed Percentage of food consumed locally that was produced locally that was produced within a given radiuswithin a given radius

Ratio of car parking space to Ratio of car parking space to productive land useproductive land use

Degree of engagement in Degree of engagement in practical relocalization work practical relocalization work by local communityby local community

Amount of traffic on local Amount of traffic on local roadsroads

Number of businesses owned Number of businesses owned by local peopleby local people

Percentage of local trade Percentage of local trade carried out in local currencycarried out in local currency

Proportion of the community Proportion of the community employed locallyemployed locally

Percentage of essential goods Percentage of essential goods manufactured within a given manufactured within a given radiusradius

Percentage of local building Percentage of local building materials used in new materials used in new housing developmentshousing developments

Number of 16-year-olds able Number of 16-year-olds able to grow 10 different varieties to grow 10 different varieties of vegetables to a given of vegetables to a given degree of basic competencydegree of basic competency

Percentage of medicines Percentage of medicines prescribed locally that have prescribed locally that have been produced within a given been produced within a given radiusradius

“…“…I have become fascinated by how we apply I have become fascinated by how we apply these principles to whole towns, whole these principles to whole towns, whole

settlements, and in particular, to how we settlements, and in particular, to how we design this transition in such a way that people design this transition in such a way that people

will embrace it as a common journey, as a will embrace it as a common journey, as a collective adventure, as something positive… collective adventure, as something positive… How can we design descent pathways which How can we design descent pathways which make people feel alive, positive and included make people feel alive, positive and included in this process of societal transformation?”in this process of societal transformation?”

——Rob HopkinsRob Hopkins

““The future with less oil could be preferable The future with less oil could be preferable to the present, to the present, if if we are able to engage with we are able to engage with

enough imagination and creativity enough imagination and creativity sufficiently in advance of the peak…”sufficiently in advance of the peak…”

——Rob HopkinsRob Hopkins

““It takes a lot of cheap energy to maintain the It takes a lot of cheap energy to maintain the levels of social inequality we see today, the levels of social inequality we see today, the

levels of obesity, the record levels of levels of obesity, the record levels of indebtedness, the high levels of car use and indebtedness, the high levels of car use and alienating urban landscapes. Only a culture alienating urban landscapes. Only a culture

awash with cheap oil could become de-skilled awash with cheap oil could become de-skilled on the monumental scale we have.” on the monumental scale we have.”

——Rob HopkinsRob Hopkins

……A creative, engaging, playful process, A creative, engaging, playful process, wherein we support our communities through wherein we support our communities through the loss of the familiar and inspire and create the loss of the familiar and inspire and create

a new lower energy infrastructure which is a new lower energy infrastructure which is ultimately an improvement on the present.ultimately an improvement on the present.

““Transition is a replicable strategy for Transition is a replicable strategy for harnessing the talent, vision, harnessing the talent, vision,

and goodwill of ordinary people.”and goodwill of ordinary people.”

——Richard HeinbergRichard Heinberg

For all those aspects of life that this For all those aspects of life that this community needs to sustain itself and thrive, community needs to sustain itself and thrive, how do we:how do we:dramatically reduce carbon emissions (in dramatically reduce carbon emissions (in response to climate change);response to climate change);significantly increase resilience (in response significantly increase resilience (in response to peak oil);to peak oil);greatly strengthen our local economy (in greatly strengthen our local economy (in response to economic instability)?response to economic instability)?

Life with less energy is inevitable, and it is Life with less energy is inevitable, and it is better to plan for it than be taken by better to plan for it than be taken by surprise.surprise.

We have lost the resilience to be able to cope We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks.with energy shocks.

We have to act for ourselves and we have to We have to act for ourselves and we have to act now.act now.

By unleashing the collective genius of the By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected.are more enriching, satisfying and connected.

The conscious design and maintenance of The conscious design and maintenance of agriculturally productive ecosystems which agriculturally productive ecosystems which have the diversity, stability, and resilience have the diversity, stability, and resilience of natural ecosystems.of natural ecosystems.

The harmonious integration of landscape The harmonious integration of landscape and people, providing their food, energy, and people, providing their food, energy, shelter, and other material and non-shelter, and other material and non-material needs, in a sustainable way.material needs, in a sustainable way.

Meeting human needs while Meeting human needs while increasingincreasing ecosystem health.ecosystem health.

Care of the EarthCare of the Earth——rebuild natural capitalrebuild natural capital

Care of PeopleCare of People—look —look after self, kin and after self, kin and communitycommunity

Fair ShareFair Share—set limits —set limits to consumption and to consumption and reproduction, and reproduction, and redistribute surplusredistribute surplus

Our Our visionvision is a future where life is more socially is a future where life is more socially connected, more meaningful and satisfying, more connected, more meaningful and satisfying, more sustainable, and more equitable in a greater sustainable, and more equitable in a greater community of relocalized communities…community of relocalized communities…

Where production and consumption occur closer to Where production and consumption occur closer to home…home…

Where long and fragile supply chains—now Where long and fragile supply chains—now vulnerable to surges in oil prices and economic vulnerable to surges in oil prices and economic volatility—have been replaced by interconnected volatility—have been replaced by interconnected local networks…local networks…

Where the total amount of energy consumed by Where the total amount of energy consumed by businesses and citizens is dramatically less than businesses and citizens is dramatically less than current unsustainable levels…current unsustainable levels…

1.1. Set up an initiating Set up an initiating groupgroup

2.2. Raise awarenessRaise awareness3.3. Lay the foundations Lay the foundations

(partnering)(partnering)4.4. Organize a Great Organize a Great

UnleashingUnleashing5.5. Form groupsForm groups6.6. Use Open Space Use Open Space

TechnologyTechnology7.7. Develop visible, Develop visible,

practical projectspractical projects

8.8. Facilitate the Great Facilitate the Great ReskillingReskilling

9.9. Build bridges to local Build bridges to local governmentgovernment

10.10. Honor and engage Honor and engage the eldersthe elders

11.11. Create an Energy Create an Energy Descent Action Plan Descent Action Plan (EDAP)(EDAP)

12.12. Let it go where it Let it go where it wants to gowants to go

..and design its evolution from the outset!..and design its evolution from the outset!

Collaborate Collaborate where possiblewhere possible

Co-operation, Co-operation, not competition not competition

““Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.

Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

Up and RunningUp and RunningArts / Food / Energy / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health /Medicine and Health /Housing / Education / Housing / Education / TransportTransport

““Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007 Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007

Skilling Up for Skilling Up for PowerdownPowerdownPeak Oil / Climate Change, Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Change, Energy Descent PlanningPlanning……

• Cultivate positive and Cultivate positive and productive productive relationships.relationships.

• You may be pushing You may be pushing against an open door!against an open door!

• Government should Government should support, not drive.support, not drive.

• Collaborate on Collaborate on community plan.community plan.

Start with a vision and Start with a vision and then backcastthen backcast

Incorporate Transition Incorporate Transition TalesTales

Base it on current Base it on current planning documentsplanning documents

““Your EDAP should feel like a holiday Your EDAP should feel like a holiday brochure, presenting a localized, low-energy brochure, presenting a localized, low-energy world in such an enticing way that anyone world in such an enticing way that anyone reading it will feel their life utterly bereft if reading it will feel their life utterly bereft if they don’t dedicate the rest of their lives they don’t dedicate the rest of their lives

towards its realization.” towards its realization.” ——Rob HopkinsRob Hopkins

Focus on the questionsFocus on the questions Unleash the collective Unleash the collective

genius of the communitygenius of the community Any sense of control is Any sense of control is

illusoryillusory

““The Transition process is one of acting as a The Transition process is one of acting as a catalyst, unlocking the collective genius and catalyst, unlocking the collective genius and

enthusiasm of the community, and enthusiasm of the community, and harnessing the untapped power of engaged harnessing the untapped power of engaged

optimism.”optimism.”

——Transition Town TotnesTransition Town Totnes

““The Transition movement is the most The Transition movement is the most exciting, most hopeful, most inspirational exciting, most hopeful, most inspirational movement happening in Britain today.” movement happening in Britain today.”

——Caroline LucasCaroline LucasEuropean Parliament European Parliament

““The Transition movement has harnessed the The Transition movement has harnessed the collective call to action and is a glue that is collective call to action and is a glue that is

mending the torn fabric of our communities.”mending the torn fabric of our communities.”

——Cliona O’ConaillCliona O’ConaillCarbon DescentCarbon Descent

““I think the thing about the Transition movement I think the thing about the Transition movement is that it is a movement from the bottom, a is that it is a movement from the bottom, a

movement of people relating to each other. It movement of people relating to each other. It creates a pressure, it creates a momentum, and creates a pressure, it creates a momentum, and

it is this momentum that hopefully becomes it is this momentum that hopefully becomes unstoppable and then carries the other parties unstoppable and then carries the other parties along with it who may technically have more along with it who may technically have more decision-making power, but because they are decision-making power, but because they are

being forced from below will have no choice but being forced from below will have no choice but to act.”to act.”

——Chris SkrebowskiChris Skrebowski

Deeply rooted in Permaculture principles and ethicsDeeply rooted in Permaculture principles and ethics Cultivates positive visioning as a core practiceCultivates positive visioning as a core practice Provides training in the practical skills needed for a post-oil Provides training in the practical skills needed for a post-oil

societysociety Recognizes Inner Transition, the psychological side of the Recognizes Inner Transition, the psychological side of the

process of changeprocess of change Encourages inclusiveness, openness to peer-to-peer feedbackEncourages inclusiveness, openness to peer-to-peer feedback Promotes non-hierarchical, distributed decision-makingPromotes non-hierarchical, distributed decision-making Enables sharing and networkingEnables sharing and networking Balances inner/outer, left/right brain, masculine/feminine, Balances inner/outer, left/right brain, masculine/feminine,

young/oldyoung/old Provides a replicable model, a clear pathwayProvides a replicable model, a clear pathway Engages whole communities in the processEngages whole communities in the process Scalable and adaptable to particular communitiesScalable and adaptable to particular communities Spreads like wildfire!Spreads like wildfire!

Transition is a social experiment on a Transition is a social experiment on a massive scale; we don’t know if this will massive scale; we don’t know if this will work.work.

If we wait for the governments, it’ll be too If we wait for the governments, it’ll be too little, too late.little, too late.

If we act as individuals, it’ll be too little.If we act as individuals, it’ll be too little. But if we act as communities, it might be But if we act as communities, it might be

just enough, just in time.just enough, just in time.

This work, just like the Transition model, is This work, just like the Transition model, is brought to you by people who are actively brought to you by people who are actively

engaged in Transition in a community—engaged in Transition in a community—people who are learning by doing and people who are learning by doing and

learning all the time, people who understand learning all the time, people who understand that we can’t sit back and wait for someone that we can’t sit back and wait for someone

else to do the work. else to do the work. People like People like youyou, perhaps…, perhaps…