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The ABC’s of VSA: Using Failed Signals to Confirm
By Lauren Snedeker
Today’s Objectives:
To confirm the signals you’re reading
To determine if they’re successful or not
To evaluate the whole picture with the information you now have
What is the Overall Picture?
Accumulation Phase
A Period of buying by the Smart Money
Wide Spread Down Bars
Ultra High Volume Bars
Stopping Volume, Selling Climax, or a Shakeout
Bar by Bar Identification
Bar A = Test Bar B = Potential Stopping
Volume
Bar C = Test after Shakeout
Bar D = Ultra High Volume
Bar E = High Volume
Bar B – Potential Stopping Volume
Wide Spread Down Bar
Bad News – rumors that the iPad was cutting production
UHV = Smart Money buying as Herd is selling, adds to the orders and thus the volume
Bar B – Potential Stopping Volume
Down move behind it X Next bar should be up to confirm
• Market will not rally until
supply has dried up
• Look for a test back into this area, on lower volume
Bar C – Test after a Shakeout
Down Bar Strength in the
Background = Bar B Retesting the Shakeout
on Oct 4, 2011 Bad News: no iphone 5 Next Bar should be up –
expect higher prices
Bar A = UpThrust
True Upthrusts have WEAKNESS in the Background With Strength in the Background, it is Likely to be tested or it is a FALSE UPTHRUST
Bar B – No Demand Fails
Study the background carefully! With Strength in the background, The indicator alone carries less Significance. Next bar should be up to confirm In an uptrend, it may lead to a Pause or a small decline back down to support at best.
Bar 1 – No Supply Bar 1 – confirms the failure of Bar A -- be cautious following an Upthrust If you see a down bar with a narrow Spread with volume lower than the two Previous bars. This shows lack of selling Pressure. Works best with Strength in Bkgrd & A minor SOW in an uptrend The No Supply bar fails because the next Bar is down
So it’s not ready to go up YET Watch for lower volume and confirmation
Bar C = UpThrust
False Upthrust Again Doesn’t break the high Of BAR B Bar C – confirms Bar 1 & confirms Strength
Bar D & E – No Demand
Next bar should be down X In an uptrend not a downtrend X Strength behind you BAR E – NO Demand Back into the Creek, low volume Next bar is up – Fails!!!!!! Trending diamonds change Volume decreases
E
Bar E – confirmation signal
During Accumulation, the Smart Money Is testing for supply in the market Before bringing the price up again Bar E = A Final Testing of Supply in the Market Its failure turns the sign of weakness into a sign of strength Next bar confirms the strength in the Market Either Green Arrow is a good entry point
E
EUR/USD 15M
Bar A & B = Supply Coming In Start of the Day – High Volume & Continues Begin Distribution/Selling Phase Look for volume to decrease as prices rise Look for a No Demand in a Downtrend and Volume to Wane Failed Tests = No Demand Failed Strength = Confirms Weakness
Did we meet our Objectives?
Did we meet our Objectives?
Can you elicit meaning from that failure? In other words – is the failed signal Confirming the opposite? Can you determine
if the indicator is A success or failure?
You should be able to:
determine if a signal has failed
ignore the overwhelming urge to see a red signal as sell and a green signal as buy
look at the overall story/picture/sense of the chart and check multiple timeframes to confirm
Learn more about VSA
• Go to my page: www.tradeguider.com/lauren
• Call me: 312-373-6294 (direct)
• Email me: [email protected]
• Skype me: lauren13sned
• http://www.volumespreadanalysis.com/library.asp