Texas House Human Services Committee

December 15, 2015

Austin, Texas

The Aging Population in Texas

@TexasDemography

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014

Numeric Change (Millions) Population (Millions)

2All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012-2014 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950‐2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

B r e w s t e r

FranklinHunt

Newton

S t a r r

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

W e b b

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

O l d h a m

Taylor

K ing

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Va l Ve r d e

Brown

Parker

H a r r i s

Zapata

R e dR i v e r

Karnes

P a l oP in to

Glasscock Shelby

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Orange

Colorado

P e c o s

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

E l l i s

H a l l

Dickens

Trinity

R e e v e s

Marion

Te r r e l l

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

P r e s i d i o

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

E d w a r d s

San Patricio

Terry

Cro c k e t t

Houston

Waller

Coke

W a r d

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillH a r t l e y

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

S u t t o n

Midland

H u d s p e t h

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

J e f f D a v i s

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

F r i o

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

K e r r

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

I r i o n

Caldwell

J imHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

K i m b l e

Knox

P o l k

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

Total Estimated Population by County, Texas, 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 Vintage Population Estimates

86 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 500,000

500,001 - 4,441,370

Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2014

4Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2014 Vintage.

102 counties lost population over the four year period.

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

B r e w s t e r

FranklinHunt

Newton

S t a r r

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

W e b b

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

O l d h a m

Taylor

K ing

Borden

Walker

Stephens

Deaf Smith

Roberts

Tyler

Va l Ve r d e

Brown

Parker

H a r r i s

Zapata

R e dR i v e r

Karnes

P a l oP in t o

Glasscock Shelby

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Orange

Colorado

P e c o s

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

E l l i s

H a l l

Dickens

Trinity

R e e v e s

Marion

Te r r e l l

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

UptonHamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

P r e s i d i o

Eastland

Sabine

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

E d w a r d s

San Patricio

Terry

Cro c k e t t

Houston

Waller

Coke

W a r d

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillH a r t l e y

Young

Burleson

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

S u t t o n

Midland

H u d s p e t h

Zavala

Harrison

Comanche

Mitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

J e f f D a v i s

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

Delta

Stonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

F r i o

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

Fort Bend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

K e r r

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

I r i o n

Caldwell

J imHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

K i m b l e

Knox

P o l k

Hood

San Jacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

ShermanOchiltree

Comal

-1,553 - 0

1 - 1,000

1,001 - 20,000

20,001 - 80,000

80,001 - 348,911

95 counties lost population between 2013-14Of these:

36 (38%) had natural decline89 (94%) had net out migration30 (32%) had both natural decline and net out migration

Median Age by State, 2008‐2013

Te x a sTe x a s

M o n t a n aM o n t a n a

U t a hU t a h

I d a h oI d a h o

C a l i f o r n i aC a l i f o r n i a

N e v a d aN e v a d a

O r e g o nO r e g o n

A r i z o n aA r i z o n a

I o w aI o w a

M i c h i g a nM i c h i g a n

W y o m i n gW y o m i n g

C o l o r a d oC o l o r a d oK a n s a sK a n s a s

O h i oO h i o

N e w M e x i c oN e w M e x i c o

M i n n e s o t aM i n n e s o t a

N e b r a s k aN e b r a s k a

I l l i n o i sI l l i n o i s

M i s s o u r iM i s s o u r i

W a s h i n g t o nW a s h i n g t o n

W i s c o n s i nW i s c o n s i n

G e o r g i aG e o r g i a

O k l a h o m aO k l a h o m a

M a i n eM a i n e

N e w Y o r kN e w Y o r k

S o u t h D a k o t aS o u t h D a k o t a

N o r t h D a k o t aN o r t h D a k o t a

A l a b a m aA l a b a m a

A r k a n s a sA r k a n s a s

V i r g i n i aV i r g i n i a

I n d i a n aI n d i a n a

L o u i s i a n aL o u i s i a n a

K e n t u c k yK e n t u c k y

Te n n e s s e eTe n n e s s e e

P e n n s y l v a n i aP e n n s y l v a n i a

N o r t h C a r o l i n aN o r t h C a r o l i n a

F l o r i d aF l o r i d a

M i s s i s s i p p iM i s s i s s i p p i

S o u t h C a r o l i n aS o u t h C a r o l i n a

W e s t V i r g i n i aW e s t V i r g i n i a M a r y l a n dM a r y l a n d

V e r m o n tV e r m o n t

N e w J e r s e yN e w J e r s e y

M a s s a c h u s e t t sM a s s a c h u s e t t s

N e w H a m p s h i r eN e w H a m p s h i r e

C o n n e c t i c u tC o n n e c t i c u t

D e l a w a r eD e l a w a r e

R h o d e I s l a n dR h o d e I s l a n d

5

A l a s k aA l a s k a 30 - 35

36 - 38

39 - 40

41 - 42

43

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2009-2013.

Percent of the Population Aged 65 Years and Older by State, 2010‐2014

6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 2010-2014

Alaska

Hawaii

W e s t V i r g i n i aW e s t V i r g i n i a

F l o r i d aF l o r i d a

I l l i n o i sI l l i n o i s

M i n n e s o t aM i n n e s o t a

M a r y l a n dM a r y l a n d

R h o d e I s l a n dR h o d e I s l a n dI d a h oI d a h o

N e w H a m p s h i r eN e w H a m p s h i r e

N o r t h C a r o l i n aN o r t h C a r o l i n a

V e r m o n tV e r m o n t

C o n n e c t i c u tC o n n e c t i c u t

D e l a w a r eD e l a w a r e

N e w M e x i c oN e w M e x i c o

C a l i f o r n i aC a l i f o r n i a

N e w J e r s e yN e w J e r s e y

W i s c o n s i nW i s c o n s i n

O r e g o nO r e g o n

N e b r a s k aN e b r a s k aP e n n s y l v a n i aP e n n s y l v a n i a

W a s h i n g t o nW a s h i n g t o n

L o u i s i a n aL o u i s i a n a

G e o r g i aG e o r g i a

A l a b a m aA l a b a m a

U t a hU t a hO h i oO h i o

Te x a sTe x a s

C o l o r a d oC o l o r a d o

S o u t h C a r o l i n aS o u t h C a r o l i n aO k l a h o m aO k l a h o m a

Te n n e s s e eTe n n e s s e e

W y o m i n gW y o m i n g

N o r t h D a k o t aN o r t h D a k o t a

K e n t u c k yK e n t u c k y

M a i n eM a i n e

N e w Y o r kN e w Y o r k

N e v a d aN e v a d a

M i c h i g a nM i c h i g a n

A r k a n s a sA r k a n s a s

M i s s i s s i p p iM i s s i s s i p p i

M i s s o u r iM i s s o u r i

M o n t a n aM o n t a n a

K a n s a sK a n s a s

I n d i a n aI n d i a n a

S o u t h D a k o t aS o u t h D a k o t a M a s s a c h u s e t t sM a s s a c h u s e t t s

V i r g i n i aV i r g i n i a

I o w aI o w a

A r i z o n aA r i z o n a

10% or Less (2 states)

10.1% - 14.5% (18 states)

14.6% - 15.5% (14 states)

15.6% - 16.5% (10 states)

16.6% - 19.1% (6 states)

Top 10 States with the Largest Older Populations, 2000, 2010, 2014

2000 2010 2014

Rank State Total Aged 65 and Older

Percent of those Aged 65 and Older in the US

State Total Aged 65 and Older

Percent of those Aged 65 and Older in the US

State Total Aged 65 and Older

Percent of those Aged 65 and Older in the US

1 CA 33,871,648 3,595,658 10.3% CA 37,253,956 4,246,514 10.5% CA 38,802,500 4,993,047 10.8%2 FL 15,982,378 2,807,597 8.0% FL 18,801,310 3,259,602 8.1% FL 19,893,297 3,791,544 8.2%3 NY 18,976,457 2,448,352 7.0% NY 19,378,102 2,617,943 6.5% TX 26,956,958 3,099,081 6.7%4 TX 20,851,820 2,072,532 5.9% TX 25,145,561 2,601,886 6.5% NY 19,746,227 2,898,094 6.3%5 PA 12,281,054 1,919,165 5.5% PA 12,702,379 1,959,307 4.9% PA 12,787,209 2,134,521 4.6%6 OH 11,353,140 1,507,757 4.3% OH 11,536,504 1,622,015 4% OH 11,594,163 1,799,169 3.9%7 IL 12,419,293 1,500,025

4.3%IL 12,830,632 1,609,213

4%IL 12,880,580 1,788,533

3.9%

8 MI 9,938,444 1,219,018 3.5% MI 9,883,640 1,361,530 3.4% MI 9,909,877 1,530,052 3.3%9 NJ 8,414,350 1,113,136 3.2% NC 9,535,483 1,234,079 3.1% NC 9,943,964 1,463,362 3.2%10 NC 8,049,313 969,048 2.8% NJ 8,791,894 1,185,993 2.9% NJ 8,938,175 1,313,503 2.8%‐ US 281,421,906 34,991,753 100% US 308,745,538 40,267,984 100% US 318,857,056 46,243,211 100%

Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial CensusesUS Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimate by State

7

States with the Greatest and Least Percent of the Population Aged 65 and Older, 2000, 2010, 2014

2000 2010 2014

Rank State Total Aged 65 and Older

Percent of Total

State Total Aged 65 and Older

Percent of Total

State Total Aged 65 and Older

Percent of Total

1 FL 15,982,378 2,807,597 17.6% FL 18,801,310 3,259,602 17.3% FL 19,893,297 3,791,544 19.1%

2 PA 12,281,054 1,919,165 15.6% WV 1,852,994 297,404 16.0% ME 1,330,089 243,507 18.3%

3 WV 1,808,344 276,895 15.3% ME 1,328,361 211,080 15.9% WV 1,850,326 328,612 17.8%

4 IA 2,926,324 436,213 14.9% PA 12,702,379 1,959,307 15.4% VT 626,562 106,199 16.9%

5… ND 642,200 94,478 14.7% IA 3,046,355 452,888 14.9% MT 1,023,579 171,155 16.7%

…46 TX 20,851,820 2,072,532 9.9% CO 5,029,196 549,625 10.9% CO 5,355,866 680,015 12.7%

47 CO 4,301,261 416,073 9.7% GA 9,687,653 1,032,035 10.7% GA 10,097,343 1,251,538 12.4%

48 GA 8,186,453 785,275 9.6% TX 25,145,561 2,601,886 10.3% TX 26,956,958 3,099,081 11.5%

49 UT 2,233,169 190,222 8.5% UT 2,763,885 249,462 9.0% UT 2,942,902 295,260 10.0%

50 AK 626,932 35,699 5.7% AK 710,231 54,938 7.7% AK 736,732 69,413 9.4%

‐ US 281,421,906 34,991,753 12.4% US 308,745,538 40,267,984 13.0% US 318,857,056 46,243,211 14.5%

Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial CensusesUS Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimate by State

8

Ranking of States by Median Age, 2000, 2010, 2014

2000 2010 2014

Rank State Med Age State Median Age State Median Age

1 West Virginia 38.9 Maine 42.7 Maine 44.2

2 Florida 38.7 Vermont 41.5 New Hampshire 42.6

3 Maine 38.6 West Virginia 41.3 Vermont 42.6

4 Pennsylvania 38 New Hampshire 41.1 West Virginia 42.0

5… Vermont 37.7 Florida 40.7 Florida 41.8

…46 California 33.3 California 35.2 Idaho 35.7

47 Idaho 33.2 Idaho 34.6 North Dakota 34.9

48 Alaska 32.4 Alaska 33.8 Texas 34.2

49 Texas 32.3 Texas 33.6 Alaska 33.3

50 Utah 27.1 Utah 29.2 Utah 30.5

‐ United States 35.3 United States 37.2 United States 37.7Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Censuses

US Census Bureau, 2014 Population Estimate by State

9

Texas Population by Age Groups, 2000‐2014

10

2000 2010 2014 2000‐2014

Population Percent Population Percent Estimate PercentAbsolute Change

Percent Change

Under 18 5,886,759 28.2 6,865,824 27.3 7,115,614 26.4 1,228,855 20.9

18 to 64 12,892,529 61.8 15,677,851 62.3 16,742,263 62.1 3,849,734 29.9

65 and Older

2,072,532 9.9 2,601,886 10.3 3,099,081 11.5 1,026,549 49.5

Total 20,851,820 100 25,145,561 100 26,956,958 100 6,105,138 29.3

Source:  US Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Censuses and 2014 Population Estimates

Five Highest and Lowest Counties by Median Age, 2014

Rank County HighestMedian Ages

Type of County

Rank County LowestMedian Ages

Type of County

1 Llano 56.3 Nonmetro 250 Hidalgo 29 Metro2 Jeff Davis 55.8 Nonmetro 251 Gaines 28.6 Nonmetro3 Menard 53.1 Nonmetro 252 Webb 28.3 Metro4 Real 52.1 Nonmetro 253 Kleberg 27.9 Nonmetro5 Sabine 51.6 Nonmetro 254 Brazos 25.6 Metro‐ Texas 34.2 ‐ ‐ Texas 34.2 ‐

Source:   *US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates, 2014** US Census Bureau, Population Division; Office of Management and Budget, February 2013  delineations  

**Note: Each Metropolitan Area must contain at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or greater inhabitants. Nonmetropolitan areas do not meet this population size criteria.

11

Five Highest and Lowest Metro Counties by Median Age, 2014

Rank County HighestMedian Ages

Rank County Lowest Median Ages

1 Bandera  51.5 250 Ector  30.42 Aransas  49.1 251 Waller  30.43 Hood  46.9 252 Hidalgo  294 Clay  46.1 253 Webb  28.35 Goliad  45.2 254 Brazos  25.6‐ Texas 34.2 ‐ Texas 34.2

Source:   *US Census Bureau, County Population Estimates, 2014** US Census Bureau, Population Division; Office of Management and Budget, February 2013  delineations  

**Note: Each Metropolitan Area must contain at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or greater inhabitants. Nonmetropolitan areas do not meet this population size criteria.

12

Median Age, Texas Counties, 2010‐2014

13Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010-2014 5 Year Sample

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

LibertyLee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

BastropAustin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

g25.0 - 30.0

30.1 - 35.0

35.1 - 40.0

40.1 - 45.0

45.1 - 55.6

Change in Median Age, Texas Counties, 2000‐2014

Menard

Hale

Armstrong

Calhoun

Clay

Orange

Gonzales

Fannin

Kerr

Refugio

JimHogg

Dimmit

Nolan

Brazos

Jefferson

Bell

Bandera

Hidalgo

Schleicher

GraysonCrosby

Delta

Zavala

Rockwall

Eastland

DeWitt

Angelina

McLennan

Lamar

Leon

Stonewall

McMullen

Sutton

FortBend

Parker

Kinney

Fayette

Briscoe

Harrison

Reagan

Coleman

Ochiltree

Crane

Washington

Lynn

Mills

Oldham

Sabine

Hopkins

Houston

Bexar

Upton

Erath

Randall

Rusk

Coryell

Comal

Aransas

Jack

Hemphill

Shackelford

SanJacinto

Kendall

Wharton

Floyd

Karnes

Kaufman

Duval

Johnson

Franklin

EdwardsWaller

Maverick

Kleberg

Gaines

Martin

Bowie

Andrews

Potter

Garza

Caldwell

Parmer

TitusTerry

Foard

Real

Carson

Knox

Hays

Medina

MotleyWichita

Midland

Victoria

Tyler

Falls

Presidio

Willacy

Lubbock

Henderson

Walker

Galveston

Harris

Dawson

Pecos

Nacogdoches

Guadalupe

Tarrant

Jackson

Swisher

SterlingWinkler

Frio

Lipscomb

Collingsworth

Colorado

Wise

GlasscockShelbyComanche

Burnet

Gray

Hudspeth

Cass

Ellis

Cooke

Williamson

Cochran

VanZandt

Donley

Jones

Grimes

Irion

Navarro

Brooks

Dallam

Hunt

Mitchell

Wood

Childress

JeffDavis

Montague

Brown

Haskell

Fisher

Concho

Coke

Polk

Cottle

Young

Lee

Cherokee

Hall

Hood

ArcherBaylor

SanAugustine

MadisonMilam

Reeves

Nueces

Camp

Freestone

Runnels

Terrell

DeafSmith

Marion

Liberty

Jasper

Hansford

Chambers

Hardin

Collin

Brazoria

Throckmorton

Bastrop

Scurry

Ector

Limestone

Denton

RedRiver

Matagorda

Hardeman

PaloPinto

LiveOak

Sherman

Uvalde

Bailey

Culberson

Atascosa

Wilson

Starr

Dallas

Kimble

McCulloch

Crockett

Hill

Kent

El PasoLoving

Dickens

La Salle

Lamb

Austin

Hutchinson

ValVerde

Smith

Robertson

Gillespie

King

TomGreen

Yoakum

Somervell

Kenedy

Borden

SanSaba

Burleson

Bee

Trinity

Castro

Brewster

Gregg

Ward

Wilbarger

Hamilton

Stephens

Lavaca

Bosque

Goliad

Roberts

Callahan

RainsMorris

Lampasas

Upshur

Wheeler

SanPatricio

Moore

Webb

Blanco

Newton

Hockley

Panola

Anderson

Cameron

Montgomery

LlanoMason

Taylor

Hartley

JimWells

Zapata

Travis

Howard

14

Change in Median Age, 2000-2014

1 to 5 Years Younger (27 Counties)

No Change (57 Counties)

2 to 3 Years Older (100 Counties)

4 to 5 Years Older (49 Counties)

Greater than 5 Years Older (21 Counties)

Source: US Census Bureau US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census, SF-1, Population Estimates 2014 Vintage.

Trends in Aging* by County, Texas, 2000‐2014

15*2000 median age 30 and greater = old. 2000 to 2014 determines aging.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 decennial census and 2014 American Community Survey 5‐Yr estimates.

 ‐

 5,000,000

 10,000,000

 15,000,000

 20,000,000

 25,000,000

 30,000,000

 35,000,000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2014

2020

2030

2040

2050

Under 1818 to 6465+

Censuses                                   Estimates               Projections               

16

Population Change by Age Group, Texas, 1950‐2050

Source: US Census Bureau, 1950-2010 Censuses US Census Bureau, State Population EstimatesTexas State Data Center, 2014 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario

Population Projections, Texas, 2010‐2050,Percent Over and Under 65

17

19%

19%

19%

18%

17%

15%

14%

12%

10%

81%

81%

81%

82%

83%

85%

86%

88%

90%

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

65 years plus Under 65 years

Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half 2000‐2010 Migration Scenario

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

18

Texas Population Pyramid, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male White, Non‐Hispanic Female White, Non‐Hispanic

19

Pyramid for the Non‐Hispanic White Population, Texas, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male Hispanic Female Hispanic

20

Pyramid for Hispanic Population, Texas, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male Black, Non‐Hispanic Female Black, Non‐Hispanic

21

Pyramid for the Non‐Hispanic Black Population, Texas, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male Asian, Non‐Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Asian, Non‐Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

22

Pyramid for Asian and Other Populations, Texas, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000Under 1 year

5 years

10 years

15 years

20 years

25 years

30 years

35 years

40 years

45 years

50 years

55 years

60 years

65 years

70 years

75 years

80 years

85 years

90 years

95 years

100 to 104 years

Male White, Non‐Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non‐Hispanic Male Asian, Non‐Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic

Female White, Non‐Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non‐Hispanic Female Asian, Non‐Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic

23

Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1

Population Projections 65 Years and Over by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010‐2050

24

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

NH White

NH Black

Hispanic

NH Other

Source: Texas State Data Center 2014 Population Projections , Half 2000‐2010 Migration Scenario

Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity for Age Groups, 2010 and 2050

25

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

  Under 18 years   18 to 64 years   65 years and over

Percen

t of A

ge Group

Age Groups

% NH White

% Black

% Hispanic

% NH Other

Source: US Census Bureau, State Population Estimates, 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0‐17 Years 18‐64 Years 65 Years and Older

Percen

tage of A

ge Group

Age Groups

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2014 Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario

2010 2050

Percent of the Population Aged 65 Years and Older without Health Insurance, Texas Counties, 2010‐2014

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

LibertyLee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

BastropAustin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

26

p0% - 0.5%

0.6% - 1%

1.1% - 2.5%

2.6% - 5%

5.1% - 7.8%

Percent of the Population Aged 65 Years and Older with Independent Living Disability, Texas Counties, 2010‐2014

27

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

FranklinHunt

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Morris

Smith

Jackson

Medina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Nacogdoches

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Somervell

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

Glasscock

Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

FreestoneWinkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

La Salle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Brooks

Runnels

Carson

LibertyLee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

FisherDawson

Dimmit

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Kaufman

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

BurlesonHardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

Harrison

ComancheMitchell

Navarro

Crane

Lubbock

Wise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

DeltaStonewall

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Guadalupe

BastropAustin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman

Ochiltree

Comal

p p0% - 15%

15.1% - 20%

20.1% - 25%

25.1% - 30%

30.1% - 100%

Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040

28Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections

Obesity Prevalence

29% adults with obesity: Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection

Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010‐2040

30

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

 Total

 Latino

 Anglo

 African American

 Other

Diabetes Prevalence

31% adults with diabetes: Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection

Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2011

32Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Census and Texas Medical Board (2011 physicians).

Dallas

Howard

FoardFloyd

Brewster

Newton

Starr

Kinney

Collingsworth

TomGreen

Coleman

Brazoria

Leon

Duval

Lamb

Smith

JacksonMedina

Wheeler

Dallam

Callahan

Lamar

Coryell

Gaines

Kendall

Milam

Hays

Willacy

Johnson

Reagan

Webb

Shackelford

Bowie

Scurry

Kenedy

Oldham

Taylor

King

Borden

Walker

Stephens

DeafSmith

Roberts

Tyler

ValVerde

Brown

Parker

Harris

Zapata

RedRiver

Karnes

PaloPinto

Glasscock Shelby

Wood

Crosby

Refugio

Burnet

Sterling

Montgomery

SanAugustine

Rains

Nueces

Jack

Swisher

Camp

Brazos

Orange

Colorado

Pecos

Cochran

Parmer

Freestone

Winkler

Wichita

Gray

Schleicher

Hardeman

TravisGillespie

Yoakum

Fayette

Uvalde

Grimes

VanZandt

Throckmorton

Falls

Grayson

Ellis

Hall

Dickens

TrinityReeves

Marion

Terrell

Lynn

LaSalle

Jasper

Jones

Castro

Victoria

Kleberg

Briscoe

Clay

Matagorda

Runnels

Carson

Liberty

Lee

Hale

Bexar

Garza

Montague

Upton

Hamilton

Fisher

Dawson

Dimmit

Limestone

Hutchinson

Llano

Presidio

Eastland

Wharton

Rusk

Tarrant

Lavaca

Childress

Hidalgo

Moore

Menard

Edwards

SanPatricio

Terry

Crockett

Houston

Waller

Coke

Ward

Titus

Lampasas

Haskell

Martin

Atascosa

HemphillHartley

Young

Hardin

Gonzales

McMullen

Erath

Galveston

Hopkins

McLennan

MadisonMcCulloch

Donley

Kent

Real

Sutton

Midland

Hudspeth

Zavala

HarrisonMitchell

Navarro

Crane

LubbockWise

Washington

JeffDavis

El Paso

Gregg

Williamson

Lipscomb

Mason

Henderson

Hansford

Chambers

Hill

Potter

JimWells

Delta

Ector

Cameron

Maverick

Collin

Baylor

Panola

Bastrop

Austin

Andrews

Anderson

Blanco

DeWitt

Bandera

Bell

Aransas

Archer

Armstrong

Bee

Angelina

Bailey

Jefferson

Frio

Fannin

Goliad

Loving

Cass

FortBend

Bosque

Hockley

SanSaba

Kerr

Mills

Cooke

Wilbarger

Irion

Caldwell

JimHogg

Culberson

Upshur

Cherokee

Denton

Concho

Randall

Kimble

Knox

Polk

Hood

SanJacinto

Robertson

Wilson

Nolan

Cottle

Calhoun

Rockwall

LiveOak

Motley

Sherman Ochiltree

Comal

0

0.01 - 5

5.1 - 15

16 - 25

26 - 74

Contact 

Office: (210) 458‐6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.texas.gov

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H.

33

@TexasDemography