The AIRPACT-3 Photochemical Air Quality Forecast System: Evaluation and Enhancements

Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe, Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter,

Joseph Vaughan, and Brian LambLaboratory for Atmospheric Research

Washington State University

Tomorrow’s Air Quality: AIRPACT-3 Daily Forecast System

MM5(3.7.3) numerical mesoscale meteorological modelSMOKE(2.1): Sparse Matrix Operating Kernal for Emissions processing.CMAQ (4.6): Community Multi-scale Air Quality model: SAPRC-99 O3 & toxics chemistry

Aerosol (ver.4) in Aitken, accumulation, & coarse modes

Deposition of N, S, O3, & Hg species

12 km x 12 km grid cells, 21 layers

Forecast to 64 hours daily

PM species NitratesSulfatesOrganic aerosolsWind-Blown Dust (soon)PM2.5 total mass

Daisy-chain Initial Conditions

Dynamic Boundary Conditions: spatial & temporal variations from MOZART monthly diurnal average profiles

2005 anthropogenic emissions (SMOKE)

Wild and Prescribed Fire Emissions (from BlueSky system)

Gridded Emissions

Updated Biogenic Emission Model (BEIS3)

WSU Dairy NH3 Emissions Module

AIRPACT-3 Dynamic Emissions & IC/BC

MM5/MCIP Meteorology from UW Weather Forecast System

CMAQ

AIRPACT3, July, 2006 Ozone and Biogenic SOA Formation

http://www.airpact-3.wsu.edu

Retrospective long term evaluationAug – Nov, 2004 (coincident with Columbia Gorge Visibility Monitoring program)

• 8 hr daily maximum O3

•24 hr daily maximum PM2.5

•Speciated PM2.5

MM5 forecast performance resultsAugust 2004 Surface

Temp. (oC)Wind Direction (deg)

Wind Speed (m/s)

Precip (mm)

RH (%)

Mean error -0.3 5 1.6 0.0 4

Mean abs. error 2.4 64 2.3 1.7 13

N 32569 24892 25476 12378 23466

Nov. 2004 Surface Temp. (oC)

Wind Direction (deg)

Wind Speed (m/s)

Precip (mm)

RH (%)

Mean error 0.3 8 1.8 -0.4 3

Mean abs. error 2.2 70 2.4 2.1 14

N 32956 24416 24978 10887 22931

GFS initialization, CCM2 radiation scheme, Reisner-2 moisture microphysics parameterization, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization and the MRF/Hong-Pan planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme

Daily maximum 8 hr ozone resultsP/O vs Observed

Timing errors (running 8 hr means)

0.1

2

4

6

1

2

4

6

10

Mo

de

led

/ M

ea

su

red

Ra

tio

806040200Measured (ppbv)

30

25

20

15

10

5

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Co

un

t (%

)

121086420Hour Difference Between Observed and Measured O3 Peak Time

Ranked daily maximum 8 hr ozone for selected sites (Aug/Sept, 2004)

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

Mo

de

led

O3

(pp

bv)

90807060504030Observed O3 (ppbv)

NorthBend, WA Enumclaw, WA Talent, OR Carus, OR WhitneyEle, ID

8

6

4

2

0

Mo

de

led

(µ

g/m

3)

86420

Measured (µg/m3)

EPA_AQS IMPROVE SWCAA

PEC

10

8

6

4

2

0M

od

ele

d (

µg

/m3 )

1086420

Measured (µg/m3)

EPA_AQS SWCAA

PNO3

Ranked speciated PM2.5 observations and predictions

50

40

30

20

10

0

Mo

de

led

(µ

g/m

3)

50403020100

Measured (µg/m3)

EPA_AQS IMPROVE SWCAA

POC

5

4

3

2

1

0

Mo

de

led

(µ

g/m

3 )

543210

Measured (µg/m3)

EPA_AQS SWCAA

PNH420

15

10

5

0

Mo

de

led

(µ

g/m

3 )

20151050

Measured (µg/m3)

EPA_AQS SWCAA

PSO4

Enhancements to Airpact-3Wildfire emissions exported to Airpact-3 from the Forest Service BlueSky System

MODIS Image for Sept 5 2006

BlueSky System at Forest Service

Observed Fire Events

AIRPACT retrieves: fire

location, fire size, heat flux, emissions

Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006

WSU Pullman

MODIS Image for Sept 5 2006

BlueSky System at Forest Service

Observed Fire Events

AIRPACT retrieves: fire

location, fire size, heat flux, emissions

Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 2006

WSU Pullman

WSU Pullman

BlueSky fire locations & size

SMOKE emissions processing for CMAQ

Predicted PM2.5 from fires

O3 with NOx from fires

O3 without NOx from fires

O3 difference

Wildfire Contributions to Regional Ozone

Daily max O3 Sept 2 – 6, 2006

Further developments

Nested domains (4 km grid cells)Enhanced automatic evaluationNASA products

Collaborators & Acknowledgements

Collaborating research groupsUSDA – Forest Service Don McKenzie & Sim LarkinUSDA – NRCS Susan O’Neill

Funding sourcesNW-Airquest ConsortiumNASA ROSES Decision Support System grant

Initial evaluation results

Ozone 8 hr daily maximaNMB = 6% and NME = 17%Peak values correctly estimated

PM2.5 24 hr daily maximaDaily FB range: -75% to +75%, mean FB = 3%Daily FE range: 3% to 79%, mean FE = 50%

Speciated PM2.5 Good match with NO3 observationsSplit decision for NH4: Gorge sites underestimatedSO4 underestimatedOC and EC overestimated at peak levels (associated with wildfires)

Enhancement of Airpact using satellite dataOMI-Aura Satellite Retrievals and AIRPACT-3 for NO2

U.S. retrieval AIRPACT-3

OMI (American) OMI (Dutch) AIRPACT

Urban NO2 along the I-5 corridor: OMI-AURA and Airpact

Bias and error maps for Aug-Sept daily maximum 8 hr ozone

Normalized mean bias

Normalized mean error

30

20

10

0

PM

2.5

(µg

/m3 )

8/7 8/15 8/23 8/31 9/8 9/16 9/24 10/2 10/1010/1810/26 11/3 11/1111/1911/27

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

R

100

50

0

-50

FE

/ F

B (

%)

Modeled Measured FB FE R

24 hr PM2.5 Performance Time Series