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Introduction to Climate Change
Part II: Anthropogenic
Climate Change
Contents
The atmosphere is changing
Observed impacts of climate change
What can we project for the future
The Atmosphere is Changing
Chemical Composition of the Atmosphere
Nitrogen78.057%
Oxygen20.944%
Argon0.930%
Carbon Dioxide0.039%
Other gases0.031%
Examining the past
Climate Proxies
Anthropogenic Climate Change
IPCC 2013
Why Hawaii?
Radiative Forcing
CO2 H2O CH4
Clouds Land Use Change Aerosols
CO2 H2O CH4
Clouds Land Use Change Aerosols
Key terms
• Chemical composition• Radiative forcing• Climate proxies• Keeling curve
Observed Impacts of Climate Change
The Atmosphere is Changing
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
There is a 95% certainty that human activities are responsible for global warming
CO2 is at an “unprecedented” level not seen in the past 800,000 years
Sea level is set to continue to rise at a faster rate than over the past 40 years
Over the last 20 years, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been melting and glaciers have receded in most parts of the world
Key findings from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
Observed Impacts
Sea Level Severe Storms Ocean Acidification
Glaciers and Snow cover Precipitation Cycles Heat Waves
Observed impacts: Temperature
These graphs show the average annual and decadal surface temperatures
IPCC 2013
Observed Impacts - Temperature
IPCC 2013
Observed Impacts - Temperature
IPCC 2013
Observed Impacts - Temperature
IPCC 2013
Observed Impacts – Snow Cover
IPCC 2013
Observed Impacts - Temperature
IPCC 2013
Observed Impacts – Warming Oceans
IPCC 2013
Observed Impacts – Sea Ice
IPCC 2013
Observed Impacts – Sea Ice
Scientific Visualization Studio, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
average minimum extent
(1979-2010)
Sea Level Rise
IPCC 2013
Observed Impacts - Acidification
IPCC 2013
Key terms
• Climate trend• Heat capacity• Arctic “minimum”• Carbon sinks
What can we project for the future?
The Atmosphere is Changing
Observed Impacts of Climate Change
Click to edit Master title styleHow are projections made?
How do we model the climate system?
Projections for the Future
IPCC 2013
Projections - Temperature
IPCC 2013
Projections - Temperature
IPCC 2013
Projections - Precipitation
IPCC 2013
Projections - Precipitation
IPCC 2013High emissions scenario
Projections – Sea Ice
IPCC 2013
High emissions scenarioLow emissions scenario
Projections – Sea Level Rise
Projections – Ocean pH
IPCC 2013
Key terms
• Emission scenarios• Baseline• Model• Projection
Conclusions
Global Regional Local
Academic Energy Building
Transportation
Food Production
Adaptation
References
• IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Available from http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf (accessed February 14, 2014)
• Ramaswamy, V., O. Boucher, J. Haigh, D. Hauglustaine, J. Haywood, G. Myhre, T. Nakajima, G. Y. Shi, and S. Solomon. 2001. Radiative forcing of climate change, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JT Houghton, et al.: 349–416.
