8 KfdsToday January 2012 KidsTodayOnline.com

By The Numbers

The baby bust is over (for now)BYW. BRADFORD WiLCOX, PH.D.

DO NOT BELIEVE the gloom anddoom message emanating from somequarters of the juvenile produetsindustry. It is true that the industrytook a big hit as U.S. births fell morethan 7 percent from 4.324 millionbirths in 2007 to 4.007 million birthsin 2010. And it is also true that thefundamental eeonomic drivers of

American fertility — sueh asunemployment and consumerconfidence — are doing poorly.

But a recent Nielson Companyanalysis for Kimberly-Clark(http: / /www.businessweek.com/news/2011-1 l-21/births-at-11-year-low-may-prolong-five-year-housing-slump.html) projecting that U.S.births will fall below 4 million thisyear and 2012 is too pessimistic. The

Ideal family size for Americans

2.66 children2.39 children

Late 1990s 2010

Women in prime childbearing years32.5 million

29 million

Approximately 1.08 million

babies were postponed or

foregone from 2008 to 2011

2000 2015

Nielson Company analysis projectedthat births will fall to 3.992 millionin 2011 and to 3.989 million in 2012.

By contrast. DemographicIntelligence (the company that 1direct) is predicting that U.S. birthsare now rising again and that U.S.births will be higher in 2011 and 2012than they were in 2010. Specifically,the December edition of our U.S.Fertility Forecast projects that birthsin the United States will remainabove the 2010 level of 4.007 millionbirths at least until 2013.

Why are our predictions morehopeful than Nielson's? At least threefactors make us more bullish aboutthe short-term future of fertility inthe United States:

1 Even though the total fertilityrate (TFR) in the United Statesfell below two births per womanon average from 2007 to 2010,ordinary Americans still believethat two or more children isideal. Our research finds that theideal family size for Americansof childbearing age (18-46) rosefrom 2.39 in the late 1990s to 2.66in 2010. So the U.S. demand forbabies remains robust.

2 According to our analyses,approximately 1.08 million babieswere postponed or foregone from2008 to 2011. Parents considering asecond, third, or fourth child havebeen particularly likely to avoidhaving a child since the recessionbegan in December of 2007. Butnow, we think many Americanwomen are trying to recoup thefertility they postponed from 2008to 2010. This will push births up in2012 and 2013.

3 The number of women in theirprime childbearing years (20-34) isnow rising, from about 29 millionin 2000 to 32.5 million in 2015.This Echo Boom means that morewomen in the U.S. are now primedto have babies. So even if thefertility rate is falling somewhat,there are more women now movinginto the prime years to becomemothers, which we think will alsopush births above where they wereat in 2010.

To be sure, we are not predicting thata major baby boom is around the corner.Given the serious economic headwindsthat young adults are facing in today'seconomy, they are not likely to have asmany children as they would like to have.

Nevertheless, Demographic Intel-ligence is convinced that U.S. birthstouched bottom in 2010 at 4.007 millionbirths and are now rising.

Accordingly, companies sellingeverything from toys to diapers tocribs to strollers should be able to takesome succor irom the fact that mostAmerieans of childbearing age wouldstill like to have two to three childrenand, more importantly, that Americans ofchildbearing age come closer to realizingtheir fertility ideals in the next two yearsthan they have in the last lour years.

The bottom line: at least for now; thebaby bust seems to be over.

IV. Bradford WUcox is director ofthe National Marriage Project at theUniversity of Virginia and presidentof Demographic Intelligence (http://demographicintel. com/). DemographicIntelligence is a provider of U.S. birthforecasts and U.S. fertility analytics forcompanies in the following sectors: childcare, financial services, food, householdproducts, insurance, juvenile products,medical and retail, •

Source: General Social Survey, 1972-2010 men and women age 18 to 46.

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