The Benefits of Horizon ScanningSteve Mellish

Monday 13th

Asia Business Continuity Seminar 2013 Asia Business Continuity Seminar 2013

The Benefits of Horizon ScanningMellish FBCI

th May 2013

Asia Business Continuity Seminar 2013 – Hong KongAsia Business Continuity Seminar 2013 – Hong Kong

• ChairmanThe Business Continuity Institute

• Fellow of the BCI since 2000

• More than 20 years experience • More than 20 years experience leading business continuity in the retail and financial sectors

• A member of the BCI Board since 2002 and previously Chairman from 20042006

• Director of Mellish Risk & Resilience Ltd.

Speaker Profile

A member of the BCI Board since 2002 and previously Chairman from 2004-

Risk & Resilience

• Introduction

• About the BCI

• Horizon Scan 2013 Survey• Horizon Scan 2013 Survey

• Top 10 Threats

• Trend Analysis

• Comparison by Geography

• Conclusion

Horizon Scan 2013 Survey

Agenda

Horizon Scan 2013 Survey

Comparison by Geography

About the BCI

• Established in 1994

8,000 members in over 100 countries• 8,000 members in over 100 countries

• Approximately 3,000 organizations represented

• Offices in the UK and US

Benefits of BCI Membership………

Introduction

8,000 members in over 100 countries8,000 members in over 100 countries

Approximately 3,000 organizations represented

Offices in the UK and US

Membership………

� Powerful networking – join a network of over 8,000 BC professionals

� Accreditation – Get your professional and technical competency accredited

� Recognition and Status – Achieve global recognition of your professional status

� Career Advancement – Benefit from a range of transformational professional

development opportunities

� Improve your skills – Enhance your skills and knowledge with the BCI CPD and

Mentoring programmesMentoring programmes

� Have your say – Participate in member surveys and BCI research

� Grow your business – Generate new business leads and win new contracts

� Save Money – Benefit from some significant member discounts

� Be the first to know – Keep up to date with latest BC trends and developments with

BCI communications

� Exclusive Access – Benefit from exclusive access to the BCI Members’ Area

� Share, Learn and Exchange Best Practice from your peers

join a network of over 8,000 BC professionals

Get your professional and technical competency accredited

Achieve global recognition of your professional status

Benefit from a range of transformational professional

Enhance your skills and knowledge with the BCI CPD and

Participate in member surveys and BCI research

Generate new business leads and win new contracts

Benefit from some significant member discounts

Keep up to date with latest BC trends and developments with

Benefit from exclusive access to the BCI Members’ Area

Share, Learn and Exchange Best Practice from your peers

Horizon scanning model for the survey

Horizon scanning

• Shorter term threat

assessment (Part 1)

• Longer term trend

analysis (Part 2)

Survey overview

• BCI members only

• Nov-Dec 2012

• 730 responses

• 62 countries

• 16 sectors

Horizon scanning model for the survey

Part 1: Threats in 2013Part 1: Threats in 2013Part 1: Threats in 2013Part 1: Threats in 2013

Part 1: Threats of concern in 2013 (Bottom 14/29)Part 1: Threats of concern in 2013 (Bottom 14/29)

Top Threats of Concern in 2013

Part 1: Threats of concern in 2013 (Top 15/29)

Top Threats of Concern in 2013

1. Unplanned IT/telecom outages

2. Data breach

3. Cyber attack

Top Threats of Concern in 2013

Part 1: Threats of concern in 2013 (Top 15/29)

Top Threats of Concern in 2013

Unplanned IT/telecom outages

Part 2: Trend AnalysisPart 2: Trend AnalysisPart 2: Trend AnalysisPart 2: Trend Analysis

Part 2: Trend analysis

21% do not have access to trend

analysis information even though

Part 2: Access and involvement in trend analysis

analysis information even though

the information exists

Part 2: Access and involvement in trend analysis

Trends on the business continuity radar (Top 8/17)Trends on the business continuity radar (Top 8/17)

Trends on the business continuity radar (Bottom 9/17)Trends on the business continuity radar (Bottom 9/17)

Differences by primary activity

IT/CommsIT/Comms

Public Administration, & Defence Services, Professional Services, Financial & Insurance Services, ICT services

IT/Comms

Data breach

Cyber attack

IT/Comms

Data breach

Cyber attack

Differences by primary activity

Transport network

Health & Safety

Human illness

Manufacturing, Health & Social Care, Transport & Storage, Retail & Wholesale

Human illness

Supply chain

Product quality/safety

Differences by country or region

Canada: Pandemic,

Business Ethics

Middle East &

USA: IT & Telecom,

Data Breach,

Cyber

UK: Data Breach, IT &

Telecom,

Cyber

Canada:

Pandemic,

Business Ethics

Middle East & Middle East &

USA: IT &

Telecom, Data

Breach, Cyber

UK: Data

Breach, IT &

Telecom,

Cyber

Sub-Saharan Africa:Fire, Exchange Rate,

Social Unrest

Middle East &

North Africa: Conflict, Social

Unrest

Cyber

Sub-Saharan Africa:

Fire, Exchange Rate,

Social Unrest

Middle East &

North Africa:

Conflict, Social

Unrest

Breach, Cyber

Differences by country or region

Asia:

EarthquakeMiddle East &

Europe:Cyber, IT &

Telecom,

Data Breach

Middle East & Middle East &

Europe:

Cyber, IT &

Telecom, Data

Breach

Earthquake

Australia:

Adverse Weather;

Climate Change

Saharan Africa:Fire, Exchange Rate,

Social Unrest

Middle East &

North Africa: Fire, Conflict, Social

Unrest

Saharan Africa:

Fire, Exchange Rate,

Social Unrest

Middle East &

North Africa: Fire,

Conflict, Social

Unrest

Where next with horizon scanning?

1. Why is it important?

2. What methodologies are involved?

3. How do you make it actionable?

A working group has been set up to consider the

following questions:

3. How do you make it actionable?

4. Mapping of existing sources

5. Risk of the month

6. The value of probability in horizon scanning

Deliverables for BCAW2014 and BCM World 2014

Where next with horizon scanning?

What methodologies are involved?

How do you make it actionable?

A working group has been set up to consider the

How do you make it actionable?

Mapping of existing sources (identify gaps)

The value of probability in horizon scanning

Deliverables for BCAW2014 and BCM World 2014

• The survey captured a consolidated view of

near-term threats and trends

• IT related concerns remain ahead of the rest

particularly the cyber threatparticularly the cyber threat

• More can be done to utilize organizational trend

analysis

• Careful scoping and investment in business

continuity is the challenge

The survey captured a consolidated view of

term threats and trends

IT related concerns remain ahead of the rest

particularly the cyber threat

Conclusion

particularly the cyber threat

More can be done to utilize organizational trend

Careful scoping and investment in business

continuity is the challenge

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