The Billion-Ton Report – Forestry Feedstocks · 2007-06-05 · The Billion-Ton Report – Forestry Feedstocks Dr. Bryce J. Stokes National Program Leader U.S. Forest Service Research

The Billion-Ton Report – Forestry Feedstocks

Dr. Bryce J. Stokes

National Program Leader U.S. Forest Service Research & Development

Washington, DC, 703-605-5263, [email protected]

Abstract: The Department of Energy and the Department of Agriculture undertook an analysis to determine whether the land resources of the United States are capable of producing a sustainable supply of biomass to displace 30% or more of the U.S.’s present petroleum consumption. This 30% goal was set by a joint advisory committee to the two departments as a vision for making a major contribution to U.S. energy needs. It would require approximately 1 billion dry tons of biomass feedstock per year. Looking at just forestland and agricultural land, the two largest potential biomass sources, this study estimated potential feedstocks exceeding 1.3 billion dry tons per year — enough to produce biofuels to meet more than one-third of the current demand for transportation fuels. This annual potential is based on a more than six-fold increase in production from the amount of biomass currently consumed for bioenergy and biobased products. About 933 million dry tons of sustainably removable biomass could be produced on agricultural lands, and about 368 million dry tons could come from forestlands. From forestlands, the projection includes 52 million dry tons of fuelwood harvested for residential and commercial applications, 144 million dry tons of residues from wood processing mills and pulp and paper mills, 47 million dry tons of urban wood residues including construction and demolition debris, 64 million dry tons of residues from logging and site clearing operations, and 60 million dry tons of biomass from fuel treatment operations to reduce fire hazards. The forestry projections are very conservative, only based on forest wastes and fairly low estimations of utilization. They did not include forest crops – the agricultural analysis did include woody perennial crops. Implications of a more-broader, forest resource for energy and biobased products will be discussed. The entire Billion-Ton Report is available on-line at the following website: http://feedstockreview.ornl.gov/pdf/billion_ton_vision.pdf

The Billion-Ton ReportForestry Feedstocks

Dr. Bryce StokesNational Program Leader

USDA Forest Service R&DWashington, DC

Robert D. PerlackLynn L. WrightAnthony F. TurhollowRobin L. GrahamOak Ridge National Laboratory

Bryce J. StokesUSDA – Forest Service

Donald C. ErbachUSDA – Agricultural Research Service

http://feedstockreview.ornl.gov/pdf/billion_ton_vision.pdf

What Was the Purpose of the Study?

U.S. Biomass Goal• DOE/USDA joint advisory committee Vision• Displace 30% of current petroleum consumption by 2030

– 5% of the nation’s power– 20% of the nation’s transportation fuels– 25% of the nation’s chemicals & materials from biobased

products.

Answers question

Can U.S. produce a sustainable supply of biomass to meet this goal – approximately

equivalent to one billion dry tons.

What Is Current Biomass Consumption?

Biomass accounts for approximately:

• 13% of renewable electricity

• 97% of industrial renewable energy use

• nearly all renewable energy use in residential and commercial sectors (84% and 90%, respectively)

• somewhat more than 2.5% of transportation fuel use

Biomass Consumption in the Nation's Energy Supply, 2002Source: EIA, 2003

Natural gas, 24%Nuclear, 8%

Petroleum, 39%

Coal, 23%

Renewable energy, 6.0%

Hydroelectric, 45%

Geothermal, 5%

Biomass, 47%

Solar, 1%

Wind, 2%

4452352410186

190

• Forest products industry- Wood residues- Pulping liquors

• Urban wood & process residues• Fuelwood (residential/commercial)• Electric utilities• Grains to biofuels• Bioproducts Total

Million dry tons/yr

Biomass Resource

For conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes

The Biomass Feedstock Resource Base

• About one-half of the land in the contiguous U.S.

• Forestland resources -- 504 million acres of timberland, 91 million acres of other forestland

• Agricultural resources -- 342 million acres cropland, 39 million acres idle cropland, 68 million acres cropland pasture

Forest resources• Logging residues and other

removals– Traditional logging activities– Cultural operations and

clearing of timberlands• Forest thinnings (fuel

treatments)– Timberland– Other forestland

• Industry processing residues– Primary wood processing mill

wastes– Secondary wood processing

mill wastes• Urban wood wastes• Fuelwood• Pulping liquors (black liquor)

1145

504

168

342

39

67

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Million acres

Other land uses

Timberland

Other forestland

Active cropland

Idle cropland

Copland pasture

Land use in the United States

Forest resource analysis

Forest resource analysis utilizes USDA/Forest Service databases and expert opinion

• Forest Inventory and Analysis database• Timber Product Output database• Energy Information Administration• Fuel Treatment Evaluator (an assessment tool used to

identify and evaluate forest stands with accumulated biomass – Healthy Forest Restoration Act)

• Resources Planning Act analyses (periodic timber assessment with projections to 2050)

• Forest Products Laboratory data

Forest Resources Analysis

Residues from commercial logging activities, silvicultural operations & clearing of

Timberlands ~ 41 million dry tons/year potential

0.7 2.1

28.9

0.3 0.4

8.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

Nat'l forest Other public Private

Forest ownership

Mill

ion

dry

tons

Logging Other removals


Forest Resources Analysis

Residues from fuel treatment operations on timberlands and other forestlands ~ 60 million dry tons/year potential

1849

770

5175

147

158

310

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

National forests

Other public lands

Private lands

Million dry tons

Timberland Other forestland

9.4

1.1 2.8

35.2

2.2 2.0 0.4

6.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

National forest Other federal State & local Private

Forest ownership

Mill

ion

dry

tons

Timberland Other forestlandFor conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes

Forest Resource Analysis

this is


Fuelwood

• Wood harvested directly from forestlands Used now by residential and commercial sectors for space heating (24 million dry tons)

• Used by electric power sector (10 million dry tons)

• Additional amounts from projected demand growth



Forest products industry processing residues• Wood residues

– Primary mill residues (bark and coarse & fine residues): 92 million dry tons generated – 43% used for on-site energy, 41% used for fiber, 14% other products (e.g., mulch), and 2% unused (39.5 million dry tons for energy current; 1.7 million tons unused) (another 6 million tons in other industries)

– Secondary wood residues (shavings, sawdust, cut-offs, etc.): 16million dry tons generated, 6 million dry tons available

• Pulping liquors– Pulp and paper mills (black liquor): 52 million dry tons

equivalent• Future industry growth contributes more resources



Urban Wood Residues

• Wood (finished wood products) & yard/tree trimmings from MSW ~ 8 million dry ton potential– Landfill survey data, composition sampling, population

driven– Material destined for MSW landfills

• Construction, remodeling and demolition residue ~ 20 million dry ton potential– Affected by economic activity (e.g., housing starts)– Material destined for C&D landfills– Contamination/commingling with non-wood products is

problematic• Additional amounts from projected demand growth



Forest growth and demand

• Future supply and demand prospects (RPA assessment)• Projected increase in logging and other removal residue –

increased residue recovery, more efficient logging operations

• Increase in the demand for wood and paper products (mill residue and black liquor)

• Increased use of finished wood products and increased recycling

• Increased demand for fuelwood• Total forest growth and demand ~ 89 million dry tons



The sustainable forest resource potential is nearly 370 million dry tons annually

3546 52

8

32

9

49

11

8

28

15

8

16

16 22

11

0

20

40

60

80

Logg

ing

resi

due

Oth

erre

mov

alre

sidu

e

Fuel

trea

tmen

ts(T

imbe

rland

)

Fuel

trea

tmen

ts(O

ther

fore

stla

nd)

Fuel

woo

d

Woo

dre

sdiu

es(fo

rest

prod

ucts

Pulp

ing

liquo

rs(fo

rest

prod

ucts

Urb

an w

ood

resi

due

13% 5% 13% 3% 14% 19% 20% 13%

Mill

ion

dry

tons

per

yea

r

Existing use Unexploited GrowthFor conversion, (2000 lbs) tons x 0.907 = metric tonnes

Forest Resource Summary

The sustainable forest resource potential~ 370 million dry tons per year

52

74

70

47

60

64

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Million dry tons per year

FuelwoodPulping liquor

Wood processing residuesUrban wood residues

Fuel treatmentsLogging & other residue


Summary

Are there sufficient resources to meet 30% of the country’s petroleum requirements?

• Land resources can technically supply more than 1.3 billion dry tons annually & still meet food, feed, and export demands

• Will require R&D, policy change, stakeholder involvement• Required changes are not unreasonable given current trends

1301

933

368

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Million dry tons per year

Total resourcepotential

Agriculturalresources

Forest resources

For conversion,

(2000 lbs) tons

x 0.907 =

metric tonnes


Summary

• Potential forestland-derived biomass for U.S. is 368 million dry tons annually• Potential agriculture-derived biomass for U.S. is 379-933 million dry tons annually• Total biomass is ~ 1-1.3 million dry tons annually• Special notes for forestry

• Only unmerchantable material and wastes• Fairly conservative set of assumptions• Remember woody crops• Other wood is available

http://feedstockreview.ornl.gov/pdf/billion_ton_vision.pdf


Wood in Agricultural Analysis

Short Rotation Woody Crops in High Yield/Land Change Scenario• Not in forestry assessment – in agriculture Wood Fiber• 5.1 millions acres• 8 dry tons per acre per year• 25 percent of annual harvest is allocated to energy biomass• Total is 9.2 million dry tons annually

Additional CRP Trees• 2.2 million dry tons per year

Total Wood in Agricultural Analysis

• 11 – part of 146/368 million dry tons per year (~100 million dry tons)

Potential as a Perennial Crop• Part of 146 million dry tons per year under moderate yield/land change scenario• Part of 368 million dry tons per year under high yield/ land change

• The remaining slides are not a part of the “Billion-Ton Report” and only represent some thoughts on possible additional woody biomass by the presenter. These are only representative concepts and analyses and would need further development and validation for accuracy and use beyond this draft analysis. • The concepts in the following slides do not represent or imply any policies or strategies of the federal agencies responsible for the development of the “Billion-ton Report.”

Beyond the Billion-Ton Report: Does not constitute or imply the official assessment or policy of DOE or USDA

Thinnings

7.8Total

1.1Natural Pine

6.7Planted Pine

Million DT/YR

Forest Stand

Additional Potential from Commercial Thinning

Southern Pine – 50% biomass


Growth, Removals, & Mortality

94 millionMortality

240 millionRemovals

355 millionGrowth

Dry TonsPer Year

Item*

* Includes Alaska – for illustration only


New Totals

504Total18Thinnings47Recover Mortality

71Utilization and Recovery Assumptions

368Original

Million Dry Tons per Year

Item

Note: Half of current mortality and 3x southern thinning projections



25x25’ Analysis (Burton and others)

• 86.9 billion gallons of ethanol

• Billion gallons of biodiesel

• 962 billion kWh electricity

• Ag + wood wastes• 106 million acres of

dedicated crops

Tentative Wood Analysis (2030) (million gallons of ethanol)

• Residues: 12-16 • Biorefinery: 1.5-2.5• Liquors: 4-5• Crops: 8-13• Total: 26.5-36.5

Documents

The Billion-Ton Report – Forestry Feedstocks · 2007-06-05 · The Billion-Ton Report – Forestry Feedstocks Dr. Bryce J. Stokes National Program Leader U.S. Forest Service Research