The bleak future of Iraqi displacedThe bleak future of Iraqi displaced

Presentation to ISPI 25 June 2007Presentation to ISPI 25 June 2007

Ethnic- Sectarian FaultlineEthnic- Sectarian Faultline

Initially Sunni insurgency and Sunni Islamic extremists Initially Sunni insurgency and Sunni Islamic extremists (both local & foreign) against MNF-I, now increasingly (both local & foreign) against MNF-I, now increasingly targetting the Shia population, minorities, secular & prof.targetting the Shia population, minorities, secular & prof.

Post Samarra increasing Shiia revengePost Samarra increasing Shiia revenge Shiia groups often split & includes targetting MNF-IShiia groups often split & includes targetting MNF-I Kurdish aspirations in Mosul, Kirkuk and DiyalaKurdish aspirations in Mosul, Kirkuk and Diyala Tribal & criminal activityTribal & criminal activity Regional considerationsRegional considerations Parties believe they can still “maximise their gains”Parties believe they can still “maximise their gains” Moderates losing influenceModerates losing influence

StatisticsStatistics

Daily No. reported security incidents 150 - 200Daily No. reported security incidents 150 - 200 Ave. 100+ killed per day Ave. 100+ killed per day (UNAMI)(UNAMI)

Ave. 200 wounded per day.Ave. 200 wounded per day. 91% violent deaths men (2/3 15 -44 age) Lancet 91% violent deaths men (2/3 15 -44 age) Lancet Ave. family size 6 Ave. family size 6 (Cluster F)(Cluster F)

Psychological impact 2:5 are mentally ill > Psychological impact 2:5 are mentally ill > women women (WHO)(WHO)

Unemployment > 80 percent > Anbar Unemployment > 80 percent > Anbar (NCCI - UNAMI)(NCCI - UNAMI)

> 50 living on < USD 1 day > 50 living on < USD 1 day (UNAMI)(UNAMI)

Inflation rate of > 70 percent (Inflation rate of > 70 percent (NCCI – UNAMI – COSIT Iraqs Central Office of Statistics)NCCI – UNAMI – COSIT Iraqs Central Office of Statistics)

Refugee IndicatorsRefugee Indicators

Up to 2,000,000 in neighbouring states (Syria, Up to 2,000,000 in neighbouring states (Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey and Iran)Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey and Iran)

Approx. 50,000 inside Iraq incl. 15,000 -Approx. 50,000 inside Iraq incl. 15,000 -Palestinians who are particularly at riskPalestinians who are particularly at risk

Average case size increased from 2 to 3.6 Average case size increased from 2 to 3.6 (UNHCR)(UNHCR)

Estimate of 560,000 Iraqi refugee children being Estimate of 560,000 Iraqi refugee children being of school going age of school going age (UNHCR, SCF, UNESCO)(UNHCR, SCF, UNESCO)

IDP OverviewIDP Overview

Est. 822,000 new IDPs since 02/06 Est. 822,000 new IDPs since 02/06 UNHCR/Cluster FUNHCR/Cluster F

Total IDPs now exceeds 2 million Total IDPs now exceeds 2 million UNHCR est. 2.3 – 2.5 million IDPs by end 2007.UNHCR est. 2.3 – 2.5 million IDPs by end 2007. Ave. of 2,000 new IDPs per day (83 per hour)Ave. of 2,000 new IDPs per day (83 per hour) 10 Governorates restrict access to new IDPs10 Governorates restrict access to new IDPs Increasing number of IDPs within GovernoratesIncreasing number of IDPs within Governorates Denial to/register PDS food distributionDenial to/register PDS food distribution 25%+ of the 325,000 returnees have been 25%+ of the 325,000 returnees have been

displaced displaced (UNHCR)(UNHCR)

Refugee Indicators (cont).Refugee Indicators (cont). 12 + % of households headed by women12 + % of households headed by women 75 + % children not attending school75 + % children not attending school Many Iraqi women do not have passportsMany Iraqi women do not have passports 30% of refugees w/ special needs incl. 4% 30% of refugees w/ special needs incl. 4%

disableddisabled Approx. 50% of refugees are Sunni.Approx. 50% of refugees are Sunni. 20 % Christians 20 % Christians Syria, Jordan, Lebanon not signed 1951 CSRSyria, Jordan, Lebanon not signed 1951 CSR Lack of work, self esteem leading to SGBV Lack of work, self esteem leading to SGBV Men leaving their families in neighbouring statesMen leaving their families in neighbouring states Women/girls being forced into “survival sex”Women/girls being forced into “survival sex”

Refugees in SyriaRefugees in Syria

Govt. estimates 1.2 - 1.5 million Govt. estimates 1.2 - 1.5 million UNHCR registered 90,000UNHCR registered 90,000 130,000 waiting to be registered Feb ‘08130,000 waiting to be registered Feb ‘08 3 - 4,000 applying for registration daily basis3 - 4,000 applying for registration daily basis Registering average 450+ per dayRegistering average 450+ per day Considers Iraqis as guestsConsiders Iraqis as guests Syria relatively generous > health, educationSyria relatively generous > health, education Recent restrictions rescinded following HC’s visitRecent restrictions rescinded following HC’s visit UNHCR working with MoE, MoH, Red CrescentUNHCR working with MoE, MoH, Red Crescent

Refugees in JordanRefugees in Jordan

Govt. est. 500-750,000 (approx 13% of pop’n)Govt. est. 500-750,000 (approx 13% of pop’n) UNHCR registered 35,000UNHCR registered 35,000 Average of 450 people per day Average of 450 people per day Brazil agreed to take Ruweyshid PalestiniansBrazil agreed to take Ruweyshid Palestinians Govt. recognising only “G” passports (renewal Govt. recognising only “G” passports (renewal

problem)problem) No access to public education or subsidised No access to public education or subsidised

health carehealth care Problem of detention and refoulementProblem of detention and refoulement No#s crossing negligibleNo#s crossing negligible Some positive signalsSome positive signals

LebanonLebanon

Est. no# of Iraqis in Lebanon 40-80,000Est. no# of Iraqis in Lebanon 40-80,000 No. of Iraqis registered is 6,500No. of Iraqis registered is 6,500 Ave. size is less than 2 and mainly Shi’ite. Ave. size is less than 2 and mainly Shi’ite. Government hardened positionGovernment hardened position Emb. in Baghdad issued 28,000 visas in 2006Emb. in Baghdad issued 28,000 visas in 2006 150 Iraqis currently in detention in Lebanon150 Iraqis currently in detention in Lebanon Priority concern is healthPriority concern is health

Iraq Socio-economic indicatorsIraq Socio-economic indicators 80% of doctors have left some hospitals 80% of doctors have left some hospitals (UNAMI/media)(UNAMI/media)

75% of children are not in school in central/south 75% of children are not in school in central/south (UNICEF)(UNICEF)

Immunised rates dropping from 83% Immunised rates dropping from 83% Prior to war Iraq had 1/3 doctors compared to Syria, Prior to war Iraq had 1/3 doctors compared to Syria,

Lebanon and Jordan Lebanon and Jordan (UNAMI)(UNAMI)

30% - 70% of schools have closed (100% in parts of 30% - 70% of schools have closed (100% in parts of Baghdad)Baghdad)

70% lack access to adequate water supply 70% lack access to adequate water supply (UNAMI - ICRC)(UNAMI - ICRC)

81% lack access to effective sanitation 81% lack access to effective sanitation (UNAMI - ICRC)(UNAMI - ICRC)

8.3 million would be food insecure if the PDS fails 8.3 million would be food insecure if the PDS fails (WFP)(WFP)

Perception that PDS has already ceased to function in Perception that PDS has already ceased to function in some areas some areas (WFP – UNAMI)(WFP – UNAMI)

Chronic child malnutrition at 23% (17% acute in the sth) Chronic child malnutrition at 23% (17% acute in the sth) ILCS –UNDPILCS –UNDP

UNHCR ObjectivesUNHCR Objectives Reinforce staff in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Reinforce staff in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt,

Turkey and Nth Iraq; Total of 300 including > 50 Turkey and Nth Iraq; Total of 300 including > 50 internationalsinternationals

Reinforce UN response to IDP situation – Reinforce UN response to IDP situation – effectiveness of remote managementeffectiveness of remote management

Establish registration/interview facilitiesEstablish registration/interview facilities Register up to 200,000 most vulnerable Iraqis Register up to 200,000 most vulnerable Iraqis

(on target at 130,000 +)(on target at 130,000 +) Support community based assistance, health, Support community based assistance, health,

educationeducation Direct assistance to EVI’s – Women at RiskDirect assistance to EVI’s – Women at Risk

Shelter project Thi QarShelter project Thi Qar

Enhance capacity for resettlement referrals to Enhance capacity for resettlement referrals to 20,000 incl. 7,000 to US by 30/06 (110% met)20,000 incl. 7,000 to US by 30/06 (110% met)

At least 10% referrals WAR (above target 16%)At least 10% referrals WAR (above target 16%) Enhance border monitoring/detention visits.Enhance border monitoring/detention visits. Continue advocacy efforts to raise the profile of Continue advocacy efforts to raise the profile of

the humanitarian needs of the Iraqis (April Conf.)the humanitarian needs of the Iraqis (April Conf.) Reinforce international/national staff (300 staff)Reinforce international/national staff (300 staff)