The Blue Review Vol. 2 No. 2

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Four Things to Watch in the MidtermsHint: The action is in the states.

Marijuana BureaucracyStraight-ahead policy analysis from Colorado’s front lines

Moments of PoliticizationWhy do some people get political and why do they stay in politics?

Whence the Tea Party?What’s next for the movement in Idaho and beyond?

Tone of the WestFive rhetorical turns from Western governors

More online at theblue review.org

FALL 2014 PRINT EDITION | VOLUME 2, NUMBER 2 | POLITICS | THEBLUEREVIEW.ORG

The Blue Review is published by the Boise State University College of Social Sciences and Public Affairs, in collaboration with Boise Weekly

interviews with Idaho #politicalanimals

midterm penalty

as compromise

2 THE BLUE REVIEW | VOL. 2, NO. 2 | FALL 2014 PRINT EDITION thebluereview.org

3THE BLUE REVIEW | VOL. 2, NO. 2 | FALL 2014 PRINT EDITIONPUBLISHED BY BOISE STATE UNIVERSITY AND BOISE WEEKLY

For decades, political scientists have investigated the roots of political prefer-ence and political knowledge. We have theories that work well to explain both, but we can still only see hints at why some people take a strong interest in poli-tics while others don’t care at all. Why do some people go further still and become

For the causes of political activation, we often look to family dynamics and professional experiences. In the classic, decades-old view, political socialization occurs in the home, usually in early adult-hood. Other factors matter too, of course, especially educational attainment and socioeconomic status.

People who become politically activated typically stay activated, and those who don’t are unlikely to become activated later on. We may learn to become voters and partisans at home and in our communities, but is this also where political activists and

In the interviews of Idaho political ac-

edition of The Blue Review we read about what activates this interest in politics and what keeps it going. In many cases, a particular issue—the environment, schools, a war—or a particular candidate sparks a political career. In other cases, it’s an aptitude for the machinery of politics that prompts political activism.

Given the emphasis in political sci-

it is especially interesting in the inter-views that follow to hear from those with other roles in public affairs. Recent scholarship on parties examines how

on who wins party nominations. Nearly all studies of candidate recruitment emphasize how important party repre-

viable candidates.It is not often explored, however,

how these gatekeepers came to be in their

political parties and nominations moves toward a broader view of the political party as a network of interests, these unelected political activists and other elites are be-ginning to garner more of our attention.

thankless pursuits, we run the risk that tal-ented and dedicated people are no longer willing to serve their communities, states

-gional and national politics in this issue— including think pieces on the Tea Party’s future, implementation of marijuana laws in Colorado and the rhetoric of Western

of some people who found a passion for politics despite the many obstacles.

Fortunately for the quality of our democracy, these dedicated individuals represent a bulwark against increasing cynicism and political disengagement.

Ken Miller is a graduate stu-dent and a research assistant for the Experimental Political Behavior & Communication

BEN WILSONAGE: 29AFFILIATIONS: The Com-munity CenterEDUCATION: Political science at Boise State

OCCUPATION: Supervisor at BeavEx

POLITICAL MOMENT? Probably during the Bush administration during the Iraq War. It was the clear manufacturing of data to justify it. INFLUENCES? My parents have been supportive. They’ve been very support of causes and my life as a gay person. Nicole LeFavour has been a big influence, and James DuToit, when he ran for City Council as an openly gay man in 1997.WHY STAY INVOLVED? There’s so much room for improvement here in this state. (Cont. at thebluereview.org...)

TBR 5: The Politics Issue Moments of PoliticizationPlays and players in the 2014 midterm elections

hard not to feel as if we are on a precipice, ready to tilt one way or another in im-portant ways. Yes, it kind of always feels that way, but there is something unique about this particular moment in Idaho, as well as in the West and across the United States. The Republican Party still has the Idaho congressional delegation on lock-down, but more than one statewide race is surprisingly competitive.

Same-sex couples just began to wed in Idaho and in Western states ranging from

reform has been implemented in Colo-rado and Washington, and NORML, the National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws, has rolled out a “Smoke the Vote” campaign to support legaliza-

D.C. Everywhere, change is afoot, and the upcoming midterm elections provide the year’s most salient and accessible mo-ment for citizens demanding even more change—or those opposed to what has already transpired—to weigh in.

The articles in this special section, and even more online at thebluereview.org, provide a series of snapshots of the politi-cal context of this pre-midterm moment.

dig deep into today’s politics: Scott Yenor (online) provides the intellectual context for midterms broadly construed, David Weaver assesses the Tea Party in Idaho and nationally and Gary Moncrief pro-vides a checklist to help results watchers interpret the outcome.

political scientist who is also a leading expert in marijuana reform implementa-tion, evaluates Colorado’s steps to imple-ment legalization, a policy development that could come to Idaho sooner than

-elman and myself take a step back and, with some data visualization help from The Blue Review -man, explore the relationship between rhetoric and politics in the West by using social science tools to analyze several Western governors, nearly all of whom are up for re-election this fall.

Taken together, these essays present an entertaining and useful primer for un-derstanding and talking about the politics of today and those of days to come. I hope they start as many new conversations as they answer old questions.

Justin Vaughn is a political scientist at Boise State and guest editor of TBR 5.

INTRODUCTORY NOTES

The Blue Review thebluereview.org @reviewblue facebook.com/reviewblue

The Blue Review is a web-native journal from the Boise State University College of Social Sciences and Public Affairs.

PublisherBoise State University Publications Office in the College of Social Sciences and Public Affairs

EditorNathaniel HoffmanGuest EditorJustin S. Vaughn

Academic EditorTodd ShallatGraduate FellowAndrew Crisp Editorial BoardCities: Jaap VosMedia: Seth AshleyMedia: Marcia FranklinDigital Culture: Leslie Madsen-BrooksPolitics: Justin S. VaughnCreative: Greg HahnDigital: Marshall D. Simmonds

Graphic Design Kelsey Hawes, Jenny Bowler, Jeff Lowe, Tomas Montaño, Boise Weekly

Cover DesignJenny Bowler

#politicalanimal interviews by Harrison Berry, Jessica Murri and Nathaniel Hoffman (full interviews at thebluereview.org)

For inquiries and submissions:The Blue ReviewBoise State University1910 University Dr.Boise, Idaho 83725-1936Phone: [email protected]

#politicalanimal


Four Things to Watch in the 2014

State ElectionsWith D.C. in gridlock, political

and policy action is in the states

W ith a highly polarized and gridlocked national government, much of the substantive policymak-ing in the United States is currently being done

at the state level. This will remain the case after the 2014 elec-tion next month, as the impasse in Washington, D.C., certainly will continue. But the contours of state policymaking are likely to change a bit. To fully appreciate the role of electoral cycles and the nature of elections at the state level, we need to recognize four characteristics of state elections.

First, electoral rules and procedures are not the same in all states. The obvious difference is in primary elections, where the rules may be quite different from one state to another in regard to who can participate (open versus closed primaries, for example), who wins (is it a plurality rule or a majority rule requiring

(they range from March until September).This year, governors will be elected in 36

states, since most states now hold gubernato-rial elections in the presidential “off-year.” Currently, the Republicans control 22 of those gubernatorial seats, while Democrats control 14. More than 80 percent of those governors are seek-

scientists, we know that incumbent governors win re-election at a rate of about 75 percent—which is actually a lower

(state legislators and congressmen, for example, generally win re-election at a rate of about 90 percent).

Currently, there are as many as 10 states that could experience a partisan shift in the

states will change partisan control; it does mean that the gubernatorial races in these states are close

Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (potentially

by one or the other parties could make for some important changes in these, and perhaps even a few other, states.

Second, while the two major parties are basi-cally evenly divided at the national level, this is

not necessarily the case in the states. There are some deeply red states, some deeply blue states and a

smaller number of truly competitive states. Recently, states appear to have undergone some substantial partisan sort-

ing or realignment. For example, Republicans now control

North Carolina were the last holdouts, and the GOP

“solid South” is once again solid, albeit solidly Republican.

More and more states now experi-

one party controls both chambers of

This trend is quite clear in the graph above.

government and only 12 states had divided government (Nebraska is

not included because the legislature is elected on a non-partisan basis). So,

-ernment in more states than at any time in the past

government did not exist in even half the states at any time.

government is an important phenomenon at the state level.

governor and both chambers of the legislature are all on the

same partisan page. Moreover, the ideological distance (po-larization) between the two major parties is growing. Political science research shows that the congressional parties are more polarized than at any time since the Civil War. Increased polarization of the parties is clearly evident in many states as

the condition at the national level of governance, but it is not the norm at the state level.

governments after the 2014 election, although it is unlikely

states (Colorado, Illinois and West Virginia) are presently uni-

Republican (Florida, Kansas and Pennsylva-nia) could move into “divided government” status because their GOP governors are in very close races. On the other hand, there is a good chance that two states currently with

states, meaning that much of the substantive poli-cymaking in the U.S. will remain at the state level.

branch. Unlike federal judges, most state (and local) judges are subject to election in one form or another. In some states, judges—including state supreme court justices—are elected on a partisan ballot. In some states they are elected on a non-partisan ballot. In others, justices must undergo a “retention election,” in which the voters are asked if they approve (wish to retain) each judge.

While the national

government is divided, most

states are unified.

More partisan

involvement —and spending —

in judicial races.

Ballot initia-tives on issues like

marijuana, abortion, GMO labelling and “top-two” primaries and their effect on

turnout.

With 36 governors up

for re-election, some states could flip parties.

Data source: National Conference of State Legislatures


State judicial elections are increasingly competitive, expensive and contentious. It is now commonplace in some states for supreme court campaigns to spend hundreds of thou-sands or even millions of dollars.

Several states will experience important elections for their supreme courts this year. In North Carolina and Tennessee, judicial elections are ostensibly nonpartisan, but

known. In both states, the Republican Party is targeting incumbent Democratic judges. Ohio, a state with a recent history of contentious and expensive Supreme Court races, has two judges up for re-election this year. One of the incumbents has already raised $1.5 million.

is the phenomenon known as “direct democ-racy.” State elections often include initiatives or referenda—issues on which the public may

such as same-sex marriage, gun control, abortion, immigration or the legalization of marijuana. These issues are often controver-sial and may evoke strong emotions among the electorate. When such issues appear on

and can have an effect on how voters perceive

In even-number years (such as this year), it is not uncommon for a total of 170-200 total initiatives and referenda to be up for a vote across the various states. Many of the most salient issues appear through the initiative process, which involves citizens (or groups) gathering enough signatures to qualify a ques-tion for the ballot, after which the electorate then votes directly on the issue. The initiative process is especially prevalent in the Western

Oregon, South Dakota and Washington are states wherein the initiative is often used to

-tive, but it is less frequently used here than in many states. While the number of highly controversial issues appears to be smaller this

Oregon deciding whether to legalize marijuana

medical use in Florida).-

mocracy efforts, and this year is no exception, with it appearing on the ballot in Colorado, North Dakota and Tennessee. Efforts to raise the minimum wage will be voted upon by

Dakota. GMO food labelling is on the ballot in Oregon and Colorado.

the initiative in Oregon to establish a “top-two” primary system. Top-two primaries cre-ate a system in which all candidates, regard-less of political party, run in the same primary election, and the top two vote getters then face each other in the general election. Because all voters can participate in the primary, the assumption is that more moderate candidates are likely to be nominated. Top-two primaries were successfully implemented in California and Washington, and if the same system passes in Oregon we are likely to see efforts to establish top-two primaries in other states with the initiative, including Idaho.

For all the reasons mentioned above, the

of politics and political discourse for the next few years. Politically, states matter, and state elections especially matter.

Gary Moncrief is university-distinguished emeritus professor of political science at Boise State University.

SHELBY SCOTTAGE: 24POLITICAL AFFILIATIONS: DemocratEDUCATION: BA, Boise State

OCCUPATION: Chief of staff, Minority Caucus (Dems)

VEHICLE: Nishiki bicycleTV SHOW: 30 Rock

POLITICAL MOMENT? It might sound weird, but it started with a robot—the VoteBot! I thought it was the coolest thing that a ROBOT was at a music festival, trying to get young people to register to vote. That same year, I had the opportunity to see Barack Obama at the Clark County Public Library before the presidential primaries had started.INFLUENCES? My parents have definitely in-fluenced me the most. They took me to vote with them when I was younger and I even remember telling my fifth grade classmates to vote for Gore in our mock election. I’ve been lucky enough to meet people on the front lines in Colorado, Montana and Indiana; people who are changing the conversation in Ohio, Kansas and Texas.WHY STAY INVOLVED? Because the work’s not done yet. (Cont. at thebluereview.org)

#politicalanimal

MOMENTS OF POLITICIZATION

Master of Arts inPolitical Science

sspa.boisestate.edu/pols

The Department of Political Science at Boise State University is proud to announce the Master of Arts degree in Political Science.

Learn more at:


Colorado Does Marijuana Quite

WellThe ‘good-government

approach’ to controversial policy

Observers often paint Massachusetts, New York and California as the liberal leaders in the United States.

-gressive drug reforms in the world. This year, Colorado and Washington began implementing the bulk of marijuana legali-zation policies that were passed through statewide referenda in 2012. These reforms, though not identical, allow individu-als 21 and older to purchase marijuana for recreational and not simply medicinal purposes.

Such reforms, including the legalization of the possession, use, cultivation and processing of cannabis, were unprec-

in these two states. While the moves make for intoxicating

is a serious question at the heart of such action: how well can a state implement a dramatic policy reform that has no com-

To address this question, I traveled to Colorado in May to examine implementation of legalization policy. In so doing, I interviewed numerous individuals involved in implementa-

from the Colorado Department of Revenue (the agency that

public health communities—groups often opposed to liberal-ized marijuana laws. In addition, I spoke with members of the industry, including individuals working at dispensaries and grow operations, as well as leaders from industry groups.

COLORADO’S LEGALIZATION: A BRIEF HISTORYColorado approved medical marijuana in 2000 and began

a system that ran into numerous problems due to loose regu-lation. In 2010, the state established the Medical Marijuana Enforcement Division in an effort to bring regulatory order to

regulatory goals were admirable, the division faced funding challenges and enforcement limitations.

64, changing the Colorado Constitution to allow the cultiva-tion, production, sale and possession of marijuana through

state approved enterprises (though counties and municipali-ties could opt out of legalization). It also allowed individuals to “homegrow,” whereby an adult could grow six marijuana plants, three of which could be budding (localities could not opt out of this, as it is a constitutional right).

The state began implementation of this new policy soon after its passage through actions from the governor, the state legislature and regulatory agencies. The governor established

which worked furiously in early 2013 to produce recommen-dations to the legislature before the close of its session in May. The legislature passed many of these recommendations into law, and the Department of Revenue began regulatory efforts under the new Marijuana Enforcement Division (MED), which would have regulatory authority over both the new recreational program and the existing medical program.

The effect was a cultivation system that was up and run-ning for the production of recreational marijuana—product hit the shelves at recreational dispen-saries by the intended date of Jan. 1, 2014.

HOW IS COLORADO DOING?My research in Colorado led to a

report thatdescribes a metric by which imple-mentation may be assessed.

Overall, I found that Colorado has been quite successful in implement-

met numerous and often rapidly approaching deadlines surrounding the production and sale of marijuana and the promulgation of regulations. It designed a system that was state-regulated but not state-run, allowing for a blend of heavy regulation and market forces to produce outcomes. Leadership in the state also helped. The governor, state attorney general

passed, made a commitment to successful implementation.-

ership to spearhead the unprecedented regulatory efforts. The MED works closely with state government and stakeholders on both sides of the debate, often employing working groups whose members offer diverse perspectives when developing new or adjusting existing regulations.

Next, the governor—cognizant that marijuana policy would require substantial coordination and communication across and outside of state government—created a new position: Director of Marijuana Coordination. This position effectively functions as a marijuana czar.

The state produced regulations that sought to address criti-cal concerns from the outset. Regulations limit minors’ access to marijuana, seek to prevent the diversion of product to the black market or to other states, work to remove the initial bur-den on the regulatory agency, improve safety at grow facilities

and dispensaries, as well as work toward a host of other goals. What’s

-

committed to engaging in regulatory lookback in order to adjust regulations when they are not functioning in the intended way or so they are respon-sive to changing political, social and/or policy environments.

Finally, the state set up a tax framework around recreational mari-juana that sought rates that were low enough to avoid consumers staying in the black market yet high enough to provide funding for a variety of items. It includes funding for the Marijuana Enforcement Division so that the division does not need to depend on annual legislative appropriations. Tax revenue also funds items like school construction, addiction services,

WAYNE HOFFMANAGE: 42AFFILIATIONS:RepublicanEDUCATION: Arkansas

State, BAOCCUPATION: President,

Idaho Freedom FoundationVEHICLE: Ralph Smeed’s old PriusDIET: Allergic to red meatFAVORITE TV SHOW: none, grazer, likes sci-fi

POLITICAL MOMENT? I don’t want to say there was a moment. I’ve always been around public policy, and just to differenti-ate, there’s politics, which is campaigns and things like that. I’ve done my share of that, but my major interest has always been the public policy. INFLUENCES? I always talk about Ralph Smeed ... He convinced me that I had a very narrow view of policy setting that was focused, like a lot of journalists are ... that was government-centric. WHY STAY INVOLVED? We’re having a tremen-dous impact. Those successes are extraordi-narily exciting. (Cont. at thebluereview.org)

Data source: Colorado Department of Revenue

#politicalanimal


transportation and law enforcement.While implementation has been broadly

successful, challenges still exist. Marijuana edibles pose risks because of their potency, serving sizes and labeling issues. Those issues have led to over- or mistaken consumption. In addition, homegrows have presented chal-lenges to public safety, particularly involving

-tial tax rates between medical and recreational marijuana have generated unintended market

challenges will have much to do with the future success of both implementation of the policy and the policy itself.

WHY IS IT SIGNIFICANT?Colorado’s effort to implement legal mari-

implementation process was slower). The progress and the success thus far shows that a system of legalized marijuana can be designed and rolled out in a smooth and orderly way, though much of that success depends on the personnel, institutions, expertise and political support surrounding the policy.

Skeptics argued that the unprecedented nature of the policy posed risks for implemen-tation, and, in many ways, those skeptics’ fears

particularly at the federal level—of implemen-tation failures, such as the relief efforts after

-

These failures materialized despite the federal government’s long experience with hurricanes and website rollouts. Colorado had no such ex-perience or reference when establishing legal recreational marijuana, yet the state managed to get it done.

In many ways, what is happening in Colo-rado is a stark contrast from federal policy-making in Washington, D.C. Colorado shows what can happen when a policy’s opponents are willing to work with its proponents to gen-erate better outcomes, rather than working to undermine implementation efforts. It shows

aside their own opposition in order to respond to the public will. Finally, it shows what can happen when a government shows a commit-ment to implementation instead of a focus on political rhetoric and ploys. Marijuana

Washington, D.C., but when it comes to policy making, D.C. ought to experiment with what Colorado is doing.

John Hudak is a fellow at the Center for Ef-fective Public Management and managing editor of the FixGov blog at the Brookings Institution.

Chris Wilson at Terrapin Care Station in Boulder, Colo., completes a debit card transaction for marijuana. Some dispensary

owners now accept debit cards.

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boisearmynavy.org


Talkin’ PoliticsWestern governors and political tone

Earlier this year, governors across the nation delivered their state of the state address--

be an outlier in several ways—the tone of the Western governors was fairly uniform and safe, hovering around the national average tone for this group of 2014 state policy-setting speech-

es. Western governors may take a slightly more active tone, but sound less realistic than our nationwide sample.

Some governors gave brief and vague speeches; others spoke at length on sev-

agendas for their state legislatures to act on. Idaho Governor C.L. “Butch” Otter was some-where in the middle, delivering a speech that focused in depth on education, but did not attend to other policy matters in great detail.

This variation in what governors talked about—and how they talked—prompted us to investigate the matter more systematically. Using the text of several of the state of the state addresses delivered this spring in West-ern states, we analyzed the ways in which governors talk to their constituents. Doing so, we hoped, would yield insight into not only

drive the differences in their rhetorical style.To do this, we used a computer program

called DICTION. DICTION is a java-based

BRIANNA LECLAIREAGE: 44AFFILIATIONS: GOPEDUCATION: University of Idaho, BA in English

OCCUPATION: Idaho Federation of Independent

Schools, executive directorVEHICLE: 2004 Chrysler Town & Country FAVORITE TV SHOW: Foyle’s War, currently

POLITICAL MOMENT? When one particular elected official wanted to mess with my kid’s school—that’s not going to work, so what can we do about it? And, as it turns out, there are a number of things you can do about it.INFLUENCES? Sen. Symms was a huge influ-ence, that man loves freedom and doesn’t care who knows it. Also: P.J. O’Rourke, Wallace Stegner’s Angle of Repose and Big Trouble (J. Anthony Lukas)WHY STAY INVOLVED? I think that the way to get to a more educated populace in idaho, which is an acknowledged problem ... the way to get there is more freedom, not more top-down regulations and mandates from either the state of Idaho or the federal Department of Education. (Cont. at thebluereview.org)

-tainty, realism and commonality. Idaho Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter poses with First Lady

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#politicalanimal


Boise Weeklywould like to extend warm thanks to the wonderful spon-sors that helped make our Cover Art Auction such a huge success

Thank You!


application that uses nearly three dozen separate word lists (with more than 10,000 words total) to identify patterns in the tone of a text. It has been used to analyze everything from literature to the language accompanying initial public offerings, but it was originally developed by University of

discusses the program and its uses in his recent book, Politi-cal Tone: How Leaders Talk & Why.

-ables (activity, optimism, certainty, realism and commonal-ity) to assess a text. The descriptions that follow come from Political Tone:

-tion of ideas and the avoidance of inertia and helps distin-

Optimism includes “language endorsing some per-son, group, concept, or event or highlighting their positive entailments.”

-pleteness and a tendency to speak ex cathedra [with the full

Realism covers “tangible, immediate, recognizable mat-ters that affect people’s everyday lives.”

Commonality language highlights “the agreed-upon values of a group” and rejects “idiosyncratic modes of engagement.”

By understanding the ways in which different Western governors score on these measures, we can get a good idea of their relationships with constituents and, hopefully, more information on what kinds of factors drive those relation-ships. Below, we discuss the results of our analysis of these state of the state addresses—as well as the national aver-age—with respect to each of those measures.

ACTIVITY

words in a governor’s speech. The national average for activity

considerably lower than the next lowest score. Wyoming and Utah were both near the national average with scores

New Mexico and Washington all scored above average in the

50.04 and 52.06, respectively. There is no obvious reason

possible that the speech was primarily focused on a different aspect of state affairs, which is likely when compar-ing this score with the commonality score.

OPTIMISMOptimism scores were in general

higher than activity scores, with the national average coming in at 53.74. This makes sense—state of the state addresses cover some of what’s been done, but focus on the upcom-ing possibilities. They speak hope-

covering what has already been done. Colorado, California, Wyoming and

-ernors going into an election year delivered all of these speeches. They may be less optimistic because they

lack the experience of multiple-term governors and are up for -

ton, New Mexico and Idaho scores were about average, with

both received high scores at 58.88 and 57.21, respectively.

CERTAINTYThe national average certainty score is 44.89, the same

score activity received. Wyoming received the lowest score of the states, with 38.13, followed by Idaho, with a score

received scores near the average,

received scores in the high 40s. -

looper (D) achieved a score of 50.82 with his speech. Wyoming’s governor,

term this year and facing re-election in the coming months; this could explain why his certainty score was so low. Wyoming is a heavily Republi-

amongst Tea Party voters, announced her intentions to run for governor. Still, Mead has the highest approval rating among incumbent governors seeking re-election, with an approval rating of 66. Frankly, there is some uncertainty over the drivers of this certainty score.

REALISMThe average score for realism was

Western states vs. U.S. average measure of rhetoric in 2014 state of the state speeches.

LEO MORALES AGE: 36OCCUPATION: ACLU-Idaho interim executive directorEDUCATION: Political

Science, Boise State

POLITICAL MOMENT? Growing up as a farm-worker child and making the connection in junior high that some things were not adding up was perhaps my wake-up call. I realized that to improve wages and labor practices, I needed to become more vocal and involved, so I did.INFLUENCES? My parents have always been influential in keeping me grounded. One of my personal historical heroes is Frederick Douglas.WHY STAY INVOLVED? I stay involved because I believe in social responsibility; that we all can do something to improve the situation of other people, whether that’s someone who is houseless in Boise, a child or parent crossing the southern border, equal rights for women/LGBT community members or pushing governments worldwide to protect human rights and dignity of all people. (Cont. at thebluereview.org)

#politicalanimal


-zona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming were all below the national average

Mexico and Washington were slightly above average, but still received scores in the low

addressing practical solutions or state affairs in his speech (evident by the low activity score), instead focusing on the community

see in the high commonality score). Given those factors, it makes sense that his speech would be less realistic than others.

COMMONALITYThe average nationwide score for com-

Utah and Wyoming all received below aver--

rado were only slightly below, with scores of 50.38 and 50.83, respectively. Idaho, New Mexico and Washington all scored

an extremely high score of 72.41. Western states, in general, may receive lower scores than others because of their size. Geographi-cally speaking, Western states tend to be among the largest states. Surprisingly, Utah scored low, though the state’s demographic is fairly homogeneous. California is home to a diverse population, so it makes sense it

high score was expected: it is an island state that has a distinct but prevalent heritage.

WHAT CAN WE LEARN?The results described above lead to as

many new questions as they answer. We can, however, draw some interesting con-clusions. First, regarding Western politics, we can see some areas where Western gov-ernors are different from their peers across the nation. For example, our group of Western governors were more active than their peers, while their rhetoric was less characterized by realism. With the West increasingly serving as a testing ground for new ideas and approaches to solving policy

believe.

Readers of The Blue Review might be particularly interested in the implications of this study for Idaho’s governor, C.L. “Butch”

state of the state address focused on educa-tion, neglecting some other hot topics.

With respect to the DICTION scores, Otter’s were consistently near the national

speech: unremarkable and safe. This makes sense, as Otter was then facing a poten-

Senator Russ Fulcher—one that seem-ingly affected much of his decision-making throughout the subsequent legislative session. Moreover, Idaho’s GOP is torn, as evident by the shutting-down of its conven-tion earlier this year. Otter’s uncontroversial address was likely designed not to isolate or upset any important faction of the Republi-can Party that he needed to win over or, at least, to avoid antagonizing. Strategically, his rather ordinary speech was perhaps the best approach, given the current political climate within the state of Idaho approaching the election later this year.

WHAT WE STILL DON’T KNOW?This study considered only Western

states in 2014. The small sample size makes

Gubernatorial rhetoric certainly varies, but the small scope leaves many things unac-counted for. This study lacks multiple years for comparison—for example, we cannot look at how a particular governor usually

low for activity and realism compared to other governors, or maybe he is normally much higher. We cannot know looking at

the national average, we do not have other states’ individual scores for comparison. Our future work will account for these missing variables; but, for now, we should read the previously mentioned results cautiously.

Amanda Stickelman is a political science major at Boise State University researching gubernatorial rhetoric and polarization. Justin Vaughn is an assistant professor of political science at Boise State University. He has published several studies of presi-dential politics.




Tea Party, Idaho and Tea Party, USA

The mixed impact of tea party politics on the state and nation

In June, U.S. Rep. Raul Labrador served as the emcee of the Idaho Republican State Convention in Moscow. For two days, he attempted to broker peace—or at least

a truce—between factions of the state party that had been

Tea Party wave, was now in the position of playing mediator between so-called “establishment” party leaders and a contin-gent of libertarian and Tea Party-aligned activists who have worked to place key supporters in precinct-level positions throughout Idaho.

The convention followed Labrador’s easy re-nomination for his seat and May 20 primary victories for incumbent Governor C.L. “Butch” Otter and U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson

of this, Idaho serves as a microcosm for larger issues within

a powerful mobilizing force—one that threatens to undermine support for the party when more centrist voters are key to winning elections.

The poor showing of the Tea Party in national and state elections indicates problems for a movement that seemed unstoppable a few short years ago.

THE TEA PARTY IN IDAHO

location in the United States for a grassroots libertarian Journal of Politics ranked

Idaho’s citizens as having the most conservative public policy preferences at the state level, followed by Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming and South Dakota. Simple logic would suggest that

than many conservatives elsewhere—and the Tea Party is more conservative than so-called “mainstream” Republicans—then Idaho should be the epicenter of the Tea Party.

Yet a review of Tea Party activity in Idaho over the past four years suggests an uneven effectiveness not unlike that in

Idaho Statesman reported in March 2009, a rally organized by Idahoans for Liberty in Julia Davis Park attracted a scant 40 participants, though by the next month a nationally sponsored rally on the Capitol steps in Boise attracted “several thousand.”

Former Idaho Congressman Walt Minnick was the only

Democrat anywhere in the country to be cited favorably by the national Tea Party Express group for voting against the 2009 federal stimulus bill. (Minnick would vote against the Patient

Clearly, this had more to do with the conserva-tive constituency of the First District than true Tea Party allegiance on Minnick’s part. Yet this was not enough to salvage his seat; he would go on to lose to Labrador by 24,000 votes in the 2010 election, the

to date in the state.

CHALLENGES IN IDAHO AND NATIONALLYWhile the Tea Party more or less held its ground

in 2012, the subsequent two years were not as kind.

Tea Party nationally, which sought to replicate its earlier successes. Strategies that worked, for exam-ple, in unseating former Utah Sen. Robert Bennett

Congressman Mike Simpson’s primary challenger, -

dia endorsements from libertarian groups outside of Idaho—most notably Freedom Works, Citizens United, the Madison Project and the Club for Growth. Meanwhile, Simpson retained traditional

an important one in a state where so many residents

Perhaps because of Idaho’s solidly Republican reputation, it was the novelty and vigorousness of Smith’s challenge that prompted National Public Radio’s David Greene to travel to the 2nd Congressional District in January to see what this

“bellwether” race might portend for the Tea Party writ large. Green’s intuition was prescient: Simpson would go on to win his primary with just over 61 percent of the vote.

state Sen. Russ Fulcher did not explicitly cam-paign on a Tea Party platform, he did enjoy the support of Tea Party-aligned activists

his primary challenge against Otter. By mid-May, Fulcher acquired Labrador’s endorse-ment and conjoined campaign signs began popping up in the western half of the Treasure Valley like

Given the Tea Party’s vehement disagree-

-

was naturally poised to capitalize on populist distaste for Otter’s decision to take the “least-worst” option under the law and cre-ate a state-run health insurance exchange.

Of all the Tea Party-

EMILY WALTON AGE: 35AFFILIATIONS: Boise Young Professionals, Go Lead Idaho, Community

Advisory Board at Boise State Public Radio

EDUCATION: BA, English, Boise State Uni-versity.OCCUPATION: Nonprofit and political cam-paign consultingWHAT THEY DRIVE: Are you going to stalk me or something? A car that’s paid off and squeals once in awhile.DIETARY RESTRICTIONS: None, thank God. I love cheese and bread.FAVORITE TV SHOW: I don’t watch or own a TV. I did watch some House of Cards at a friends’ house last year.

POLITICAL MOMENT? I was “homeschooled” in a patriarchal culture that told me college was wasted on a woman, the government was evil and if we just worked hard every-thing would be fine. I eventually realized that I had been lied to. INFLUENCES? My parents’ teachings about responsibility and fairness definitely influ-enced me, but eventually I found it lacking in reason and fair application. College really helped me get greater access to research and theories about equality and the way our culture is structured that made sense. WHY STAY INVOLVED? I don’t really feel like it’s even an option any longer. Unlike a lot of people, I’m just not afraid to just say what I think, so that often puts me out in front of people making arguments on controversial subjects. (Cont. at thebluereview.org)

#politicalanimal

Idaho implemented a closed primary system in July 2011, requriring party registration to vote in primary elections. The charts above show survey data on party registration from 1999-2010 (left) and current voter registration data (right).


related challenges of the past four years, Fulcher’s margin was the most successful—after Labrador’s—leaving Otter with a thin 51 percent of the vote. Otter’s success was partly due to the backing of so-called “establish-

not only sworn to uphold the Idaho Constitu-tion, but that of the United States govern-ment, as well.

Idaho citizens, like citizens elsewhere,

kind of ideological purity that groups such as the Tea Party depend on to motivate their

Idaho Public Policy Survey, a combined 58 percent of Idahoans strongly or somewhat agreed that Idaho should be able to opt out of the 2010 health care bill. Yet a combined 63 percent of Idahoans also strongly or somewhat agreed that “public funds should be used to help provide health insurance to people who cannot afford it”—hardly a liber-tarian response.

Similarly, while 59 percent strongly or somewhat disagreed that the state is “invest-ing enough in higher education in Idaho,” only 39 percent either strongly or somewhat agreed “Idaho should raise the sales tax to support the higher education budget.” These

numbers indicate a center-right elector-ate, but the Republican dominance in state politics means the centrist elements are not

Trends in the annual survey show that

registered voters increased from 28 to 37 percent between 2007 and 2010, while the percentage of Republicans declined from 40 to 33 percent. When the Idaho Republican Party closed its caucus in 2012, it provided an opening for a more ideologically pure (and presumably smaller) Republican primary voter base. Yet neither Fulcher nor Smith ap-

in the last year, Republican registrations have grown by more than 40,000, according to the

In the May primaries, Fulcher outper-formed Otter in only two of the six counties in which Tea Party-aligned Ron Paul won in 2012; the one Paulite county in Simpson’s district (Camas) went in Simpson’s favor. Of course, in each case, there is the ever-important factor of incumbency. Otter raised more than $600,000 to Fulcher’s $80,000 and Simpson’s $556,000 cash-on-hand outshined Smith’s $231,000. Labrador never

Republicans.

CHINA GUMAGE: 36AFFILIATIONS: Repub-licanEDUCATION: Boise State

University, Women’s Cam-paign School at Yale

OCCUPATION: President, Inside Baseball Public Affairs

POLITICAL MOMENT? It was September 11. I was in college. I had tried to contact the College Republicans before that and join their club, but I could never reach them. But when Sept. 11 happened, I renewed that effort and got involved in the club and we were really active on campus at Boise State.INFLUENCES? I’ve picked up a couple of female mentors. One of them, her name is Nancy Bocskor. She works on both sides of the aisle and in between, too. She’s known around the world, even spent time in Iraq helping women run for office.WHY STAY INVOLVED? I ask myself that all the time. But I really, really, truly care about the future of Idaho and I have young kids, and I really worry about the direction that our state is headed. (Cont. at thebluereview.org)

JASON LEHOSIT AGE: 38AFFILIATIONS: Repub-licanEDUCATION: Some politi-

cal science at Boise StateOCCUPATION: Campaign

consultantWHAT THEY DRIVE: CadillacFAVORITE TV SHOW: Walking Dead, Board-walk Empire, lots of baseball and college football

POLITICAL MOMENT? When I was in high school at Capitol High, our government teacher really encouraged participation to the point where he would give us extra credit for getting business cards from elected officials and stuff like that. INFLUENCES? Being born in ’76, obviously Ronald Reagan had an influence, Gov. Batt at the time … again you look at the 1994 Republican Revolution, I think that got a lot of younger people involved.WHY STAY INVOLVED? Politics is a sport; here’s your rule book, here’s your Consti-tution. I really enjoy the strategy behind things, I enjoy meeting people, I enjoy rais-ing the money, I enjoy helping put the events together. (Cont. at thebluereview.org)

#politicalanimal #politicalanimal



WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE TEA PARTY?In the wake of recent elections in Idaho

and around the country, there has been much speculation about the future of the Tea Party. It bears remembering that in the run-up to the 2010 midterm elections, many pundits and political scientists were skeptical that this loose coalition of anti-government activists would have a long-term impact.

The normative bias in the news media and the academy is toward “impact,” as measured by the number of bills proposed or passed.

negative politics—the ability to prevent policy

futile, but symbolically important, attempts -

featuring the newly elected Tea Party bloc—enacted slightly more than 200 public laws, far below historic norms. The 113th session is on track to perform similarly, having passed only 180 so far. By the standards of the Tea Party’s demand for a less vigorous federal government, this is a resounding success.

Electorally, the national Tea Party lost many of its primary elections this spring—most notably its challenge to Mississippi Sen.

Thad Cochran—but scored a symbolically -

ity Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia. In many ways, the Tea Party’s largest opportunity for success comes at the state and local levels, where the partisan cues are (relatively) less salient.

Political parties ultimately must govern, not simply win elections. The Tea Party,

movement, intentionally focused on win-

govern, with all of the requisite compromises and policy nuances.

Naturally, the national Republican Party seeks to simultaneously retain the enthu-siasm and turnout of conservative activists while claiming to hold onto the remains of its own “big tent” tradition—one that recognizes a diversity of viewpoints within the party. If the party, here or elsewhere, cannot govern when it is in power because of a passionate

base stripped of the centrists and disaffected Democrats who helped bring the party back to power 34 years ago.

David A. Weaver teaches political science and communication at Boise State.


JIM EVERETTAGE: 62AFFILIATIONS: Not disclosedEDUCATION: Albion Col-lege in Michigan

OCCUPATION: Executive director, YMCA

POLITICAL MOMENT? It was in the 1960s. John F. Kennedy’s assassination hit me, as it did the nation, awfully, awfully hard. I grew up in a time of Lyndon Johnson and the Civil Rights Movement, when equality for all really ought to mean all and it didn’t and it still doesn’t.INFLUENCES? My mom, since I lost my dad when I was only 8.WHY STAY INVOLVED? I’ve always been very interested in public policy. I don’t think I ever missed a presidential election since I could vote; I know I haven’t, because it makes a difference. In other countries, you’re required to vote. That’s not a bad idea. Sometimes we like to talk about being rugged and indepen-dent and it’s baloney. No one is independent; the older you get and the wiser you get, you realize that no one is independent. (Cont. at thebluereview.org)

LAIRD LUCASAGE: 58 AFFILIATIONS: Not disclosedEDUCATION: M.A. and

law, from YaleOCCUPATION: Attorney

POLITICAL MOMENT? The moment I became politically aware was when Nixon authorized the bombings in Cambodia. It was in 1970 or 1971. I was in high school. A lot of students protested that expansion of the war, wore black armbands, did sit-ins because the ex-pansion of the bombing was illegal. I became aware back then that government and politics can really affect people’s lives.INFLUENCES? My influences were friends. It was generational, it was the music and the media, the teachers I had in high school and college. It comes from the Vietnam War gen-eration; the people I grew up with had a view of the world that the government can be good or the government can be bad, but you’ve got to watch it and do what you can to make it work for good.WHY STAY INVOLVED? It takes everybody stepping in to ensure that our government moves forward in a positive way. (Cont. at thebluereview.org)

#politicalanimal #politicalanimal


Brass, Inc.1964

Celebrating 50 years & 5 locations of

Brass Lamp &Highlands Hollow Brewhouse

Running Brass Lamp Specialsall week long, 10/19–10/25

2014

Deck Party

Live Music!Matt Hopper & the Roman Candles

Old Dogs New Tricks

Documents

The Blue Review Vol. 2 No. 2