The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

ACCESS Rainfall Verification

• Beth Ebert previously provided detailed stats

• Subsequently elevated to greatness.

• Following are NMOC stats provided by Jim Fraser.

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

ACCESS Rainfall Verification

• Stats:

• “Warm Season”: Nov-1 2009 to Mar-31 2010

• “Cool Season”: Apr-1 2010 to Aug-6 2010

• General comments:

• ACCESS systems generally outperform their LAPS/GASP counterparts, but tend to under-forecast average rain intensity

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

ACCESS-G (Warm)

  Observed GASP ACCESS-G

    00-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr 00-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr

Rain Area (km2*103) 1574 1660 1679 1630 1562 1607 1582

Avg Intensity (mm/d) 11.27 8.43 8.76 8.60 8.33 8.47 8.50

Rain Volume (km3) 17.7 14.0 14.7 14.0 13.0 13.6 13.4

Max Intensity (mm/d) 71.59 40.68 46.12 45.85 52.47 55.51 54.66

Mean Abs Error (mm/d)   2.43 2.71 3.06 2.17 2.44 2.74

RMS Error (mm/d)   6.21 6.80 7.50 5.86 6.47 7.22

Correlation Coefficient   0.56 0.50 0.40 0.61 0.55 0.48

Bias Score   1.05 1.07 1.04 0.99 1.02 1.01

Probability of Detection   0.70 0.67 0.61 0.75 0.74 0.69

False Alarm Ratio   0.33 0.37 0.41 0.25 0.28 0.31

Critical Success Index   0.52 0.48 0.43 0.60 0.57 0.53

Hanssen & Kuipers Score   0.58 0.53 0.46 0.66 0.63 0.58

Equitable Threat Score   0.40 0.35 0.29 0.49 0.46 0.41

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

ACCESS-R (Warm)

  Observed LAPS_PT375 ACCESS-R

    00-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr 00-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr

Rain Area (km2*103) 1450 1565 1547 1475 1556 1528 1485

Avg Intensity (mm/d) 11.9 12.6 11.8 11.7 8.7 8.5 8.6

Rain Volume (km3) 17.3 19.7 18.2 17.3 13.5 13.0 12.8

Max Intensity (mm/d) 91.0 108.1 104.5 105.9 103.5 98.7 100.5

Mean Abs Error (mm/d)   3.0 3.2 3.5 2.4 2.6 2.8

RMS Error (mm/d)   8.0 8.6 9.2 6.9 7.4 8.0

Correlation Coefficient   0.53 0.44 0.37 0.54 0.48 0.42

Bias Score   1.08 1.07 1.02 1.07 1.05 1.02

Probability of Detection   0.74 0.69 0.62 0.75 0.72 0.68

False Alarm Ratio   0.31 0.35 0.39 0.30 0.32 0.34

Critical Success Index   0.55 0.50 0.44 0.57 0.54 0.50

Hanssen & Kuipers Score   0.63 0.57 0.49 0.65 0.61 0.56

Equitable Threat Score   0.44 0.38 0.32 0.46 0.43 0.39

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

ACCESS-A

• Average intensity still under-forecast

• Maximum intensity over-done, particularly in warm season

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

ACCESS-A (warm)

  Observed MESO_LAPS_PT125 MALAPS_PT100 ACCESS-A

    00-24hr 12-36hr 24-48hr 00-24hr 12-36hr 24-48hr 00-24hr 12-36hr 24-48hr

Rain Area (km2*103) 1530. 1717 1725 1708 1511 1484 1462 1621 1606 1617

Avg Intensity (mm/d) 12.8 12.2 12.2 11.7 12.8 12.4 12.8 9.6 10.3 9.9

Rain Volume (km3) 18.7 20.9 21.0 20.0 19.3 19.0 18.7 15.6 16.6 16.0

Max Intensity (mm/d) 95.0 115.1 110.6 114.7 220.3 101.0 218.4 301.2 329.4 310.2

Mean Abs Error (mm/d)   3.4 3.5 3.7 3.1 3.2 3.6 2.6 2.8 2.9

RMS Error (mm/d)   8.7 9.0 9.4 9.0 9.3 10.0 7.9 8.5 8.8

Correlation Coefficient   0.46 0.43 0.37 0.50 0.46 0.38 0.52 0.48 0.45

Bias Score   1.18 1.19 1.17 0.99 0.97 0.96 1.06 1.05 1.06

Probability of Detection   0.72 0.70 0.67 0.70 0.67 0.60 0.75 0.74 0.73

False Alarm Ratio   0.39 0.41 0.43 0.29 0.31 0.38 0.29 0.30 0.31

Critical Success Index   0.49 0.47 0.45 0.54 0.52 0.44 0.57 0.56 0.55

Hanssen & Kuipers Score   0.57 0.55 0.51 0.60 0.57 0.47 0.65 0.63 0.61

Equitable Threat Score   0.36 0.35 0.32 0.43 0.41 0.32 0.46 0.45 0.43

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

ACCESS-A (cold)

  Observed MESO_LAPS_PT125 MALAPS_PT100 ACCESS-A

    00-24hr 12-36hr 24-48hr 00-24hr 12-36hr 24-48hr 00-24hr 12-36hr 24-48hr

Rain Area (km2*103) 963 1062 1075 1089 674 658 631 854 832 828.

Avg Intensity (mm/d) 7.31 7.82 7.68 7.32 8.58 8.36 8.57 6.66 6.98 7.00

Rain Volume (km3) 7.0 8.3 8.3 8.0 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.8

Max Intensity (mm/d) 44.25 57.3 52.58 55.0 98.85 93.37 92.56 75.14 82.60 82.65

Mean Abs Error (mm/d)   1.48 1.50 1.54 1.13 1.16 1.32 0.96 1.02 1.07

RMS Error (mm/d)   4.32 4.31 4.45 3.64 3.76 4.12 2.96 3.20 3.37

Correlation Coefficient   0.38 0.38 0.34 0.53 0.49 0.39 0.60 0.56 0.53

Bias Score   1.21 1.23 1.25 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.89 0.86 0.86

Probability of Detection   0.59 0.59 0.57 0.51 0.49 0.40 0.64 0.61 0.59

False Alarm Ratio   0.51 0.52 0.54 0.27 0.28 0.38 0.28 0.29 0.31

Critical Success Index   0.37 0.36 0.34 0.43 0.41 0.32 0.51 0.49 0.47

Hanssen & Kuipers Score   0.49 0.47 0.45 0.48 0.45 0.36 0.59 0.57 0.54

Equitable Threat Score   0.29 0.28 0.26 0.37 0.35 0.26 0.45 0.43 0.40

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of MeteorologyWGNE-26, Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

ACCESS