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The Coal InstituteSummer Trade Seminar
July 15, 2019
COAL CAR OVERVIEW
Forward Looking Statements
Some statements in this presentation, which are not historical facts, are “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include statements about TrinityRail’s estimates, expectations, beliefs, intentions or strategies for the future, and the assumptions underlying these forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, future financial and operating performance, future opportunities and any other statements regarding events or developments that TrinityRail believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future. TrinityRail uses the words “anticipates,” “assumes,” “believes,” “estimates,” “expects,” “intends,” “forecasts,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “guidance,” “projected,” “outlook,” and similar expressions to identify these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release, and TrinityRail expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement contained herein to reflect any change in TrinityRail’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based, except as required by federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical experience or our present expectations, including but not limited to risks and uncertainties regarding economic, competitive, governmental, and technological factors, and such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance.The enclosed information is being provided by TrinityRail (“Trinity”) for discussion purposes only. The recipient (the “Recipient”) is not permitted to, and the Recipient shall not, disclose any of the information enclosed herewith to any third party without the express written permission of Trinity. Further, acceptance or use of, or reliance on, the enclosed information is done solely at the risk of the Recipient. The enclosed information is provided by Trinity “as is,” and “with all faults,” and Trinity shall not be deemed to have made, and Trinity hereby disclaims, any representation or warranty, express or implied, now or hereafter, with regard to the contents of such information.
Coal Car OverviewChanging Landscape
Numerous Coal Production Forecasts?
Overall Coal Car Supply is Declining?
Convergence of Supply and Demand?
Uncertain Future Government Actions?
Coal Cars Worth the 50-year Investment?
Coal Car OverviewProduction Remains Flat
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
MM
T
U.S. Coal Production ForecastSource: EIA 2019 Annual Energy Outlook
Reference case MMst High economic growth MMst
Low economic growth MMst High oil price MMst
Low oil price MMst AEO2018 without Clean Power Plan MMst
Coal Car OverviewStorage Levels Declining
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percen
t A
cti
ve
Active Gondolas and HoppersSource: Association of American Railroads
Gondolas
Hoppers
Coal Car OverviewThe Coal Car Fleet is Shrinking
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Railcars
Estimated Coal Railcar Attrition Source: UMLER 2011 - 2019
CoalGondolas
CoalHoppers
- Data excludes body material values: 9, 30, and NA; this represents 832 railcars; Age is an estimate
Coal Car OverviewAn Aging Fleet Should See Continued Retirements
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 50+
Railcars
Age Distribution of Steel and Combination Coal Car FleetSource: UMLER January 2019
CoalGondola
CoalHopper
- Data excludes body material values: 9, 30, and NA; this represents 832 railcars; Age is an estimate
~41,000 Railcars
Coal Car OverviewAn Aging Fleet Should See Continued Retirements
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 50+
Railcars
Age Distribution of Aluminum Coal Car FleetSource: UMLER January 2019
CoalGondola
CoalHopper
- Data excludes body material values: 9, 30, and NA; this represents 832 railcars; Age is an estimate
Coal Car OverviewSummary
Numerous Coal Production Forecasts
Overall Coal Car Supply is Declining
Convergence of Supply and Demand
Uncertain Future Government Actions
Coal Cars Worth the 50-year Investment
