Upload
corporateexecutiveboard
View
836
Download
2
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
This deck explains the massive downturn in customer demand in late 2008 and provides guidance for commercial leaders to respond.
Citation preview
Corporate Executive Board®
Teleconference Materials
The Collapse of DemandUnderstanding It and Responding to It
Copies and Copyright
As always, members are welcome to an unlimited number of copies of the materials contained within this handout. Furthermore, members may copy any graphic herein for their own internal purpose. The Corporate Executive Board requests only that members retain the copyright mark on all pages produced. Please call the Member Support Center at 1-866-913-2632 for any help we may provide.The pages herein are the property of the Corporate Executive Board. Beyond the membership, no copyrighted materials of the Corporate Executive Board may be reproduced without prior approval.
Legal Caveat
The Corporate Executive Board has worked to ensure the accuracy of the information it provides to its members. This report relies upon data obtained from many sources, however, and the Corporate Executive Board cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or its analysis in all cases. Furthermore, the Corporate Executive Board is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional services. Its reports should not be construed as professional advice on any particular set of facts or circumstances. Members requiring such services are advised to consult an appropriate professional. Neither the Corporate Executive Board nor its programs are responsible for any claims or losses that may arise from a) any errors or omissions in their reports, whether caused by the Corporate Executive Board or its sources, or b) reliance upon any recommendation made by the Corporate Executive Board.
3MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Road Map for Today’s Presentation
The Crisis So Far
What Is Happening with Demand
What the Best Companies Will Do
How We Can Help
4MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Where We Left OffRecent Months Have Dramatically Changed World Economies
Recent Economic Events and Stock Market PerformanceSelected Highlights
Lehman Brothers fi les for bankruptcy.
September October November December
Source: Corporate Executive Board research.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac placed in conservatorship.
A.I.G. saved by $85B loan from the Fed.
$700B Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) signed into law.
Coordinated interest rate cut; UK triggers bailout scheme.
Major Stock IndicesSeptember–December 2008
DJIA FTSE 100
11,250
10,000
8,750
8,500
0
6,000
4,000
3,000
0
5,000
September October November December
DJIA
FTSE 100
Fed buys short-term commercial debt.
Japan in recession.
U.S. GDP shrinks 0.3%; UK and Eurozone in recession.
U.S. in recession since December 2007.
5MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Credit Markets Still in HidingMassive interventions have
helped loosen credit somewhat…
TED Spread*May 2008–December 2008
…but lenders remain cautious
Percentage of Loan Offi cers Tightening StandardsCommercial/Industrial and Credit Card Loans
* Difference between LIBOR and U.S. T-Bill rates—an indicator of banks’ willingness to lend. Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, Senior Loan Offi cer Survey; Corporate Executive Board research.
2.5
0.0
(40%)
0%
100%
50%
5.0
May June July
August
Septem
ber
October
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
November
December
Hundreds of Basis Points
Credit Cards
C&I
Median WACC for A-Rated CompaniesS&P 500
0%
10%
5%
Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
5.7%
4.9%
9.1%
6MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Road Map for Today’s Presentation
The Crisis So Far
What Is Happening with Demand
What the Best Companies Will Do
How We Can Help
7MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Beyond Supply—What About Demand?
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Institute for Supply Management; Corporate Executive Board research.
Percentage Change from
Previous Period
Q1Q120062006
Q1Q120072007
Q1Q120082008
Q2Q2 Q2Q2 Q2Q2Q3Q3 Q3Q3 Q3Q3Q4Q4 Q4Q4(20%)
0%
20%
Period
2007 2008
Period
Plummeting consumer demand…
Change in Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresU.S., Durable and Nondurable Goods
…is dragging down business orders
ISM New Order Diffusion IndexU.S., Manufactured Goods
Durable Goods
Nondurable Goods
25
45
65
Index
50
8MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
More to the StoryCustomer Demand Will Remain Weak—for Reasons Beyond Access to Credit
Drivers of Changes to Demand
Source: Corporate Executive Board research.
De-Leveraging
• Debt Reduction
• Savings Increases
Declining Wealth
• Asset Value Deterioration
• Real Income Contraction
Behavioral Shifts
• New Sensibilities
• Imprinting/Trait Formation
9MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Driver #1: Declining Personal Wealth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; The U.S. Retirement Market, First Quarter 2008, Investment Company Institute; Haver Analytics; Corporate Executive Board research.
Consumers feel poorer as their asset values shrink…
Percent Change Year-on-Year to Case-Shiller Index
…and rising prices squeeze budgets
Consumer Price Index, 12-Month Changes1998–2008 (YTD)
U.S. Retirement AssetsNominal Dollars, 2000–2008 (Q1)
(20)
(30)
$18
$9
$0
0
10
(10)
20
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Q1 200
7
Q2 200
7
Q3 200
7
Q4 200
7
Q1 2
008
2004 2008
6%
3%
0%1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
11.7 11.3 10.612.5 13.8 14.9
16.7 17.0 17.7 18.1 18.0 17.1
Trillions of Dollars
10MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
An Inconvenient Truth…with decade-old income levels
Median Real Household Income1993–2007, 2007 Dollars
Source: Leonhardt, David, Next Victim of Turmoil May Be Your Salary, The New York Times, 15 October, 2008; Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States: 2007, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 1968 to 2008 Annual Social and Economic Supplements; Corporate Executive Board research.
Infl ation-Adjusted Pre-Tax Family IncomesU.S. 1990–2007, by Quintile
U.S. Dollars
Year
U.S. Dollars
$350,000
$175,000
$01990
Top of the Cycle
One Year Later
Two Years
Three Years
Four Years
Five Years
Six Years
1994 1998 20062002
Note: Median household income data are not available before 1967.
Consumers face a looming income drop…
Decrease in Income During Downturns
0%
(3%)
(6%)
5th4th3rd2nd
1st Quintile
Top 5%
1999–2004
1989–1993 1978–19831973–1975
1969–1971
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
$55,000
$42,500
$30,000
Incomes have just recovered to levels preceding last downturn.
Driver #1: Declining Personal Wealth
11MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Driver #2: De-Leveraging
…and bringing savings back in line
Household Savings As a Percentage of Income, 2000–2008 (Q3)
…consumers are reining in debt…
Household Debt Growth1990–2008 (Q2)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds Accounts of the U.S. ; Haver Analytics; Corporate Executive Board research.
(1.0)
0.0
2.5
5.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
14%
24%
55 65 75 85 95 054%
After a decade of credit-fueled consumption…
Household Liabilities as a Percentage of Assets1955–2007
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
0.0%
6.0%
12.0%
Year
Perc
enta
ge
Perc
enta
ge
12MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Driver #3: Behavioral ShiftsAs consumers re-think
what they are willing to buy…
Hierarchy of Needs
…new sensibilities and norms are emerging
Top Changes Consumers Have Made Percentage of Respondents Making Signifi cant Change
Prevalent Buying Mindset
Conspicuous Consumption
Cool to Be Frugal
“Our retail and manufacturing clients are seeing almost an aversion to consumption.”
Todd LavieriCEO, Archstone ConsultingNovember 2008
Esteem
Belonging
Safety
Survival
Self Actualization
Source: Leinwand, Moeller and Shriram, “Consumer Spending in the Economic Downturn,” Booz & Co., 2008; Saranow, Jennifer, “Luxury Consumer Scrimp for Sake of Planet, and Because It’s Cheaper,” Wall Street Journal, 4 November 2008; Corporate Executive Board research.
43.2%
39.3%
35.4%
34.8%
32.4%
29.7%
28.1%
28.1%
28.0%
27.0%
38.0%
32.4%
32.1%
31.8%
30.9%
28.3%
36.5%
35.5%
34.8%
33.0%
33.0%
1.7%
Eat Outside the Home Less
Attend More “Free” Activities (e.g., Hiking, Beach, Museums)
Eat at Less Expensive Restaurants
Entertain Friends at Home Instead of Going Out
Eat at Fast Food Restaurants Less Frequently
Buy Sale Items
Pack Lunch for Work
Buy More Store-Label Groceries (Not Buying Top Labels)
Eat More Leftovers
Use Coupons
Drive Less Overall
Order Less Food When You Go Out to Eat
Shop at Less Expensive Stores
Take Fewer Shopping Trips
Reduce Number of Vacations
Fewer Impulse Purchases at Register
Shop at Stores Closer to Home
Top 20 of All Changes Made (Average)
Take Cheaper Vacations (Closer to Home)
Shift Away from More Expensive to Less Expensive Versions
Cut Down on Non-Work Driving
Bottom 20 of All Changes Made (Average)
Spend More Time at Home, Less Away
Frugal Shopping
Reducing Driving
13MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Etching in StoneThe likely duration of the downturn…
Duration of U.S. Recessions
…will “imprint” new behaviors on a key segment
U.S. “Economically Formative” Population Versus Selected Country Total Populations
2008
Estimates of Time to U.S. Economic Turnaround*
Comparison of Generational Economic Perspectives Aug
ust 19
29–M
arch 1
933
May 19
37–Ju
ne 19
38
Febru
ary 19
45–O
ctobe
r 194
5
Novembe
r 194
8–Octo
ber 1
949
July 1
953–
May 19
54
August
1957
–Apri
l 195
8
April 1
960–
Febru
ary 19
61
Decem
ber 1
969–
Novembe
r 197
0
Novembe
r 197
3–Marc
h 197
5
Janua
ry 19
80–Ju
ly 19
80
July 1
990–
March 1
991
March 2
001–
Novembe
r 200
1
Decem
ber 2
007–
?0
25
50 43
138 11 10 8 10 11
16
6 8 812
Period
Mon
ths
in
Con
trac
tion
Millions of People
* GDP growth greater than 1%. Source: Levy, David, Entering a “Contained Depression,” Institutional Investor, (October 2008); Economists Predict Recession to Last Through 2009, CNN Money.com, (3 November 2008); National Bureau of Economic Research, Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions; U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly Estimate of Population; Corporate Executive Board research.
U.S. "EconomicallyFormative" Population
(17–25 Years Old)
Total Populationof Poland
Total Populationof Canada
35
30
40
National Association of Business Economists
OECD
Cohort Depression Boomers Millenials
Prevailing Economic Conditions
• Loss of wealth• High
unemployment
• Unbroken economic growth
• Low real interest rates
• Income stagnation
• Unprecedented volatility
• Debt tolerance• High
consumption
• •
ResultantEconomic Behavior
• Risk aversion• Compulsive
saving WORK IN
PROGRESSJerome Levy Forecasting Center
Mid 2009
End of 2009
Contraction Through End
of 2009
“Contained Depression” 2011 ~ 2018
Driver #3: Behavioral Shifts
14MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Changes in Business Demand Are Unfolding Similarly
Businesses also feel less wealthy…
F500 Operating MarginAfter Depreciation, 2000–2008 (Q3)
…and are learning new behaviors
CFO Responses to the Economic Downturn
Source: Computstat; Deloitte; Corporate Executive Board research.
Median WACC for A-Rated CompaniesS&P 500
0%
10%
16%
8%
0%
5%
Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008
5.7%
4.9%
9.1%
0 50 100
82
66
70
52
57
38
56
38
41
25
29
13
16
3
Reduce All Other Discretionary Spending
Reduce Future Hiring
Reduce Capital Spending
Reduce Spending on Advertising and Marketing
Shift Production or Support Functions Overshore
Reduce Current Employee Numbers
Reduce Dividend Payments
2008 Q3
2008 Q1
n = 105.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
15MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
In SummaryA Signifi cantly Different Environment Poses New Problems for Executives
Our View
Because:
• We are only at the beginning of a signifi cant economic shift in developed economies and the norms that economic conditions create.
• Customer behaviors are in fl ux.
• The “real” downturn is likely to persist for more than four quarters—regardless of GDP recovery—as debt, spending and income return to sustainable levels and excess capacity is absorbed.
• Many customers will carry behaviors learned during the downturn for life.
Executives will struggle to:
• Overcome uncertainty.
• Distinguish important customer behaviors.
• Compete on dimensions other than price.
• Adapt their value proposition—quickly.
• Profi tably manage their product/service portfolios.
Source: Corporate Executive Board research.
16MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Road Map for Today’s Presentation
The Crisis So Far
What Is Happening with Demand
What the Best Companies Will Do
How We Can Help
17MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
8%
19%
15%
13%12%
11% 11%
Recessions Radically Restack the CompetitionEconomic downturns change how investors perceive the value of your sales relative to industry peers…
Change in Relative Market Cap to Sales Ratio 1990–1991 Downturn, Versus Industry Peers
…with implications that last for years
Relative Market Premiums Before and After DownturnsTop Versus Bottom Quartile, Indexed
Downturns can more than double the likelihood that a fi rm signifi cantly changes its industry ranking.
Firms who made it into the top quartile during a downturn can signifi cantly increase and sustain their premium over bottom quartile fi rms.
Percentage of Firms Moving Up or Down at Least One Quartile in Market Cap
to Sales Ratio
Premium for Top Quartile
Versus Bottom Quartile Firms, Market Cap to
Sales
(indexed at 12 months before
economic bottom)
-121989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 0 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2.3x
n = 5,400 Companies Globally. n = 5,490 Companies Globally.
Source: Compustat; Corporate Executive Board research.
18MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Source: Sabre Holdings Corporation; Corporate Strategy Board research; Business Leadership Forum research; Corporate Executive Board research.
Tactic #1: Embed Uncertainty in PlanningSabre Builds Out Near-Term Scenarios as Part of Its Planning Process
Sabre’s Competitive Dynamics Modeling Exercise2001
Named Scenario
Description
Implications
Origin of Disruption
Nature of Disruption
“Portal Power” “Solidarity” “Newcomers” “Global Cocooning”
Suppliers Competitors New Entrants Buyers
Airline alliances stabilize through equity ownership or asset sharing.
Alignment of agencies and reservation systems increase customer-centric services.
Socioeconomic Retrenchment Drives
Transformation
Economic, political, and social turmoil reduce appetite and ability to travel.
• Reservation systems and travel agencies consolidate and survive on signifi cantly reduced revenue streams.
• Improve ease and comfort of travel experience.
Nontraditional marketing powerhouses enter travel retailing.
• Create new business models and align with innovative intermediaries to meet customer service and distribution needs.
New Entrants Drive Transformation
• Operational effi ciencies enable intermediaries to lower distribution and marketing fees.
• Regulatory environment constrains airline consolidation.
Intermediaries Drive Transformation
• Defend against airline strategies that adversely impact nondirect channels.
• Invest aggressively in operational and marketing CRM.
Airlines Drive Transformation
1 432
19MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
If—ThenInsights from Scenario Process Guide Intelligent Response
Scenario-Driven Management Decisions
Source: Michels, Jennifer, “Power Up: Sabre’s New Empowering Agenda Is Designed to Help Agents Take Control of Their Future,” Travel Agent, (27 May 2002): 39; “Sabre Announces World Wide Strategic Cost-Cutting Initiative,” PR Newswire, (28 August 2000); Sabre Holdings Corporation; Corporate Strategy Board research; Business Leadership Forum research; Corporate Executive Board research.
Insight Severe drop in demand under a “Global Cocooning” scenario would put a premium on a lean cost base.
Ability to compete against merged agencies and reservation systems will be crucial to success under the “Solidarity” scenario.
Strong relationships with travel agencies will enhance Sabre’s competitiveness under the “Solidarity” scenario.
Despite industry hype about “game-changing” interactive television, genuine signals for “Newcomers” scenario are fl at.
SG&A
Action Sabre embarks on a global cost-cutting program designed to save $100 million annually, prior to the travel slump caused by the 11 September 2001 attacks.
Sabre takes full control of partially owned Travelocity online portal to ensure direct access to buyers; increases European presence through Travelocity.co.uk.
Sabre shares “Solidarity” scenario with agencies to make the case for collaboration and subsequently rolls out the “Empowering Agenda,” a fi ve-point plan designed to help travel agencies revamp their business models.
Unlike competitors, Sabre avoids making sizable, premature investments in the iTV distribution channel, which has not yet yielded the revenue anticipated by many.
20MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Tactic #2: Surface Changes in Value DriversAs customers rapidly re-prioritize needs…
Hierarchy of Needs for CustomersIllustrative
…the best companies are hunting for buying behavior changes
Approach #1: State and Test Key Assumptions
Approach #2: Track Lead Customers
“We Assume”
Leading MarketUnited Kingdom
Extreme Customers Key Questions
Identify assumptions underpinning current market strategy.
Use customers in leading markets who exhibit “extreme” behavior…
“But We Verify”
Test them in key markets using short cycle research
…to spot shifting priorities that may “spread.”
Source: Corporate Executive Board research.
• Demand is inelastic for loyal customers
• Service is key component of offer
• •
Purchases Increase • What were you buying before?• Why did you shift to this
product?
Purchases Decrease • What are you substituting with? • What drove the decision?
Association/Image
Convenience
Cost/Value
Functional Utility
Trust/Security
21MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Tactic #2: Surface Changes in Value Drivers
Tell Me What You WantCaremark Forces Customers to Trade-Off Product Attributes to Identify Key Value Drivers
Caremark Customer Scorecard
Source: Caremark; Corporate Executive Board research; Sales Executive Council research.
Key Performance Measures
• Quarterly Review of program savings• Annual Client Review
• Mail turnaround time __%• Paper Claim turnaround time __%• Call Center stats 30 sec. ASA, 5% ABN rate• Quarterly review of communication efforts
• Mail Order accuracy of 99.9%• Paper Claim accuracy of 99%• Reporting accuracy of 100%
• Plan administration accuracy of 100%• Increase electronic access to prescription benefi t
for patients and Caremark Rx
• Client Report Card• Customer Service Responsiveness; Automated
Call Center Survey• Account Management Responsiveness
Key Performance Defi nition
• Value in Caremark’s products and services provided to you as measured in fi nancial terms, and improvements in fi nancial performance and cost over time
• Caremark’s ability to fulfi ll service commitments in a timely manner; this includes on-time deliv-ery of the appropriate product or service
• Proactive communication of industry news and information. e.g., New Drug Review
• The degree of excellence achieved in core delivery areas
• Caremark’s investment in time and resources, to develop new products and/or service offer-ings to anticipate your needs
• General perception of Caremark’s services, products and behavior
• Flexibility and the ability to respond to constant change and reactive requests
Relative Importance
30%
Caremark’s Performance
4
Performance Category
Value
Satisfaction
Innovation
Quality
Delivery
100%Totals 4.5
10% 5
0% n/a
20% 5
40% 4
Concurrence:CaremarkName: Signature: Date:Michael Bolton 01/07/2001
Name: Signature: Date:Bill Lomberg 01/07/2001(Name) Client
Caremark Partnership Evaluation FormBusiness Objective: Build a strong, long-term partnership including joint strategic planning, proactive account management, and delivery of innovative clinical initiatives to achieve
customer satisfaction focusing on health and cost containment.Customer: Initech Corp.
Joint discussion of metrics provides insight into customer performance drivers.
In the act of weighing performance metric importance, customers are forced to make trade-offs between wants and needs.
Record of performance against customer goals over time serves as valuable fact-based retention tool.
22MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Desired Customer Attitude/Perception
Current Customer Attitude/Perception
Desired Customer Behavior
Current Customer Behavior
Tactic #3: Explicitly Communicate Differentiators That Matter
Facing retrenching customers that see little difference among brand promises
Customer Perception of Quality VarianceIndexed to Product/Service Quality
…winners will crystallize their most potent differentiators
Vodafone’s Framework for Surfacing Critical Differentiators
Source: Vodafone; Market Research Executive Board research; Sales Executive Council research; Corporate Executive Board research.
“What would have to be true?”Concentrate on the attributes of your proposition that could change the attitudes associated with desired behaviors.
“Who has the best price?”
“I want to buy from you.”
1.40
1.33
1.13
1.09
1.06
1.00
0.99
Sales Experience
Customer Service
Effectiveness of Communication
Value to Price Ratio
Reputation for Execution
Product/Service Quality
Brand Promise
“I need the cheapest thing.”
“I need the most valuable thing, and you
have it.”
23MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Differentiator SpottingVolvo Sees Opportunities in Its Under-Valued Strengths
Framework for Exploring Potential Differentiators
Volvo asks its sales and marketing teams:
• What is the impact of our unique strengths on our customers’ economics?
• Why don’t all customers appreciate that value?
Unique StrengthCommon Strength
Customers Do Not See Value
Customers Already See
Value
Low-Hanging Fruit
Opportunity
Source: Corporate Visions, Inc. Power Positioning Workshop; Volvo Trucks North America; Sales Executive Council research; Market Research Executive Board research.
Tactic #3: Explicitly Communicate Differentiators That Matter
24MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Tactic #4: Focus on Commercial InnovationAdjust How—Not What—You Sell in the Near Term to Boost Indispensability
Commercial Innovation “Exploration Map” and Examples
Source: Sales Executive Council research; Business Leaders Forum research.
Customers
How can we expand customer perceptions of our products and
services to grow demand?
How can we boost our customers’
capacity for buying our products and
services?
How can we reduce customer effort/cost relative to competitors?
What privileged knowledge or
capabilities do we have to help manage
customers’ risks?
How can we improve our customers’ knowledge and
capabilities through our buying process?
Sales Experience Innovation
• Grainger’s sales team alters its reps’ pitch to teach customers about unappreciated ineffi ciencies in their own businesses.
• Not coincidentally, Grainger has unique strengths in addressing those ineffi ciencies, enabling the fi rm to monetize its “teaching” commitment.
Product Positioning Innovation
• Procter & Gamble changes the marketing communications supporting its Febreze brand from “a product for deodorizing” (an infrequent need) to “a fi nishing touch to a good cleaning job” (a frequent need).
• The repositioning dramatically grows the product’s market size as the frequency of consideration expands.
25MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Tactic #5: Optimize Your Offering to Profi tabilityClorox Forces Determination of “Good” and “Bad” SKUs
Clorox’s SKU Assessment Process
• Product decisions may have multiple competing strategic drivers.
• Strategic goals are frequently supplanted by the needs of the moment.
• SKUs are assessed on a variety of performance and profi tability metrics.
• Tracking numerous metrics for all SKUs increases the diffi culty of setting hurdles.
• SKUs are grouped for analysis according to multiple sets of characteristics.
• Hurdles for each of several metrics must be set for each of several groups.
• Hurdle rates, which a SKU must meet to be considered “good,” are not employed.
• SKU assessment produces multiple categories of non-prescriptive conclusion.
• SKUs are assessed using a dashboard of metrics.
• Some business units may be unable to conduct the necessary analysis.
One Key Driver
Shareholder Return
Two Basic Metrics
Profi t and Volume*
Two Product Types
Large Brand and Small Brand
Four Standard Hurdles
Two Profi t, Two Volume
Two SKU Types
“Good” and “Bad”
Conventional Approach
Clorox Approach
Process Stage
Assessment of SKUs
Setting of Hurdle Rates
Categorization of Product Portfolio
Selection of Key Metrics
Selection of Strategic Driver
Source: The Clorox Company; Supply Chain Executive Board research.* Defi ned in Project Acceleration Toolkit.
26MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
SKU SkewClorox Sets Simple Parameters to Identify “Good” and “Bad” SKUs
SKU Assessment Process
Avoid Perfection“It’s more important to have your hurdle rates than to worry about getting them exactly right. It’s better to make a few educated choices and act on them consistently than to struggle with accurately evaluating every single possible factor for a single, one-time rationalization.”
Kevin Pegels Director of Supply Chain Planning The Clorox Company
Assessment of SKUs
Setting of Hurdle Rates
Categorization of Product Portfolio
Selection of Key Metrics
Selection of Strategic Driver
One Key DriverShareholder Return
Two Basic MetricsProfi t and Volume
Two Product TypesLarge Brand and Small Brand
Four Standard Hurdles
Two Profi t, Two Volume
Two SKU Types“Good” and “Bad”
* All numbers illustrative.
Volume hurdles are set based on actual per-SKU performance.
Average per-SKU costs are assessed for four key metrics.
Two Profi t Hurdles Two Volume Hurdles
SKUs
Volume
Large BrandSmall Brand• Inventory Holding
• Marketing Expenses• Remnant Costs• R&D Costs
Key Metrics
Source: The Clorox Company; Supply Chain Executive Board research.
“Good” SKU Defi nition
A “good” SKU is one that meets either the relevant profi t hurdle, volume hurdle, or both.
Tactic #5: Optimize Your Offering to Profi tability
27MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Road Map for Today’s Presentation
The Crisis So Far
What Is Happening with Demand
What the Best Companies Will Do
How We Can Help
28MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.
Here to HelpOur Resources Are at the Ready to Help You and Your Teams
Economic Downturn Support
https://www.mlc.executiveboard.com/Members/DecisionSupportCenters/EconomicDownturn/Manage.aspx
Source: Marketing Leadership Council research.
Use ideas from the best companies to manage risks, talent, customers, and planning.
Learn about the dynamics driving the downturn and their implications.
Monitor the most recent economic indicators across key markets.
w w w . e x e c u t i v e b o a r d . c o m
MLC1ASLIY5
Corporate Executive BoardWashington, D.C. • Chicago • San Francisco • London • New Delhi • Sydney