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Corporate Executive Board ® Teleconference Materials The Collapse of Demand Understanding It and Responding to It

The Collapse of Demand 2.2

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This deck explains the massive downturn in customer demand in late 2008 and provides guidance for commercial leaders to respond.

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Page 1: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

Corporate Executive Board®

Teleconference Materials

The Collapse of DemandUnderstanding It and Responding to It

Page 2: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

Copies and Copyright

As always, members are welcome to an unlimited number of copies of the materials contained within this handout. Furthermore, members may copy any graphic herein for their own internal purpose. The Corporate Executive Board requests only that members retain the copyright mark on all pages produced. Please call the Member Support Center at 1-866-913-2632 for any help we may provide.The pages herein are the property of the Corporate Executive Board. Beyond the membership, no copyrighted materials of the Corporate Executive Board may be reproduced without prior approval.

Legal Caveat

The Corporate Executive Board has worked to ensure the accuracy of the information it provides to its members. This report relies upon data obtained from many sources, however, and the Corporate Executive Board cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information or its analysis in all cases. Furthermore, the Corporate Executive Board is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting, or other professional services. Its reports should not be construed as professional advice on any particular set of facts or circumstances. Members requiring such services are advised to consult an appropriate professional. Neither the Corporate Executive Board nor its programs are responsible for any claims or losses that may arise from a) any errors or omissions in their reports, whether caused by the Corporate Executive Board or its sources, or b) reliance upon any recommendation made by the Corporate Executive Board.

Page 3: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

3MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Road Map for Today’s Presentation

The Crisis So Far

What Is Happening with Demand

What the Best Companies Will Do

How We Can Help

Page 4: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

4MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Where We Left OffRecent Months Have Dramatically Changed World Economies

Recent Economic Events and Stock Market PerformanceSelected Highlights

Lehman Brothers fi les for bankruptcy.

September October November December

Source: Corporate Executive Board research.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac placed in conservatorship.

A.I.G. saved by $85B loan from the Fed.

$700B Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) signed into law.

Coordinated interest rate cut; UK triggers bailout scheme.

Major Stock IndicesSeptember–December 2008

DJIA FTSE 100

11,250

10,000

8,750

8,500

0

6,000

4,000

3,000

0

5,000

September October November December

DJIA

FTSE 100

Fed buys short-term commercial debt.

Japan in recession.

U.S. GDP shrinks 0.3%; UK and Eurozone in recession.

U.S. in recession since December 2007.

Page 5: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

5MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Credit Markets Still in HidingMassive interventions have

helped loosen credit somewhat…

TED Spread*May 2008–December 2008

…but lenders remain cautious

Percentage of Loan Offi cers Tightening StandardsCommercial/Industrial and Credit Card Loans

* Difference between LIBOR and U.S. T-Bill rates—an indicator of banks’ willingness to lend. Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, Senior Loan Offi cer Survey; Corporate Executive Board research.

2.5

0.0

(40%)

0%

100%

50%

5.0

May June July

August

Septem

ber

October

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

November

December

Hundreds of Basis Points

Credit Cards

C&I

Median WACC for A-Rated CompaniesS&P 500

0%

10%

5%

Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

5.7%

4.9%

9.1%

Page 6: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

6MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Road Map for Today’s Presentation

The Crisis So Far

What Is Happening with Demand

What the Best Companies Will Do

How We Can Help

Page 7: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

7MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Beyond Supply—What About Demand?

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Institute for Supply Management; Corporate Executive Board research.

Percentage Change from

Previous Period

Q1Q120062006

Q1Q120072007

Q1Q120082008

Q2Q2 Q2Q2 Q2Q2Q3Q3 Q3Q3 Q3Q3Q4Q4 Q4Q4(20%)

0%

20%

Period

2007 2008

Period

Plummeting consumer demand…

Change in Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresU.S., Durable and Nondurable Goods

…is dragging down business orders

ISM New Order Diffusion IndexU.S., Manufactured Goods

Durable Goods

Nondurable Goods

25

45

65

Index

50

Page 8: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

8MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

More to the StoryCustomer Demand Will Remain Weak—for Reasons Beyond Access to Credit

Drivers of Changes to Demand

Source: Corporate Executive Board research.

De-Leveraging

• Debt Reduction

• Savings Increases

Declining Wealth

• Asset Value Deterioration

• Real Income Contraction

Behavioral Shifts

• New Sensibilities

• Imprinting/Trait Formation

Page 9: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

9MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Driver #1: Declining Personal Wealth

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; The U.S. Retirement Market, First Quarter 2008, Investment Company Institute; Haver Analytics; Corporate Executive Board research.

Consumers feel poorer as their asset values shrink…

Percent Change Year-on-Year to Case-Shiller Index

…and rising prices squeeze budgets

Consumer Price Index, 12-Month Changes1998–2008 (YTD)

U.S. Retirement AssetsNominal Dollars, 2000–2008 (Q1)

(20)

(30)

$18

$9

$0

0

10

(10)

20

2000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Q1 200

7

Q2 200

7

Q3 200

7

Q4 200

7

Q1 2

008

2004 2008

6%

3%

0%1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

11.7 11.3 10.612.5 13.8 14.9

16.7 17.0 17.7 18.1 18.0 17.1

Trillions of Dollars

Page 10: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

10MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

An Inconvenient Truth…with decade-old income levels

Median Real Household Income1993–2007, 2007 Dollars

Source: Leonhardt, David, Next Victim of Turmoil May Be Your Salary, The New York Times, 15 October, 2008; Income, Poverty and Health Insurance in the United States: 2007, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 1968 to 2008 Annual Social and Economic Supplements; Corporate Executive Board research.

Infl ation-Adjusted Pre-Tax Family IncomesU.S. 1990–2007, by Quintile

U.S. Dollars

Year

U.S. Dollars

$350,000

$175,000

$01990

Top of the Cycle

One Year Later

Two Years

Three Years

Four Years

Five Years

Six Years

1994 1998 20062002

Note: Median household income data are not available before 1967.

Consumers face a looming income drop…

Decrease in Income During Downturns

0%

(3%)

(6%)

5th4th3rd2nd

1st Quintile

Top 5%

1999–2004

1989–1993 1978–19831973–1975

1969–1971

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

$55,000

$42,500

$30,000

Incomes have just recovered to levels preceding last downturn.

Driver #1: Declining Personal Wealth

Page 11: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

11MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Driver #2: De-Leveraging

…and bringing savings back in line

Household Savings As a Percentage of Income, 2000–2008 (Q3)

…consumers are reining in debt…

Household Debt Growth1990–2008 (Q2)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds Accounts of the U.S. ; Haver Analytics; Corporate Executive Board research.

(1.0)

0.0

2.5

5.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

14%

24%

55 65 75 85 95 054%

After a decade of credit-fueled consumption…

Household Liabilities as a Percentage of Assets1955–2007

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Q1

2008

Q2

0.0%

6.0%

12.0%

Year

Perc

enta

ge

Perc

enta

ge

Page 12: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

12MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Driver #3: Behavioral ShiftsAs consumers re-think

what they are willing to buy…

Hierarchy of Needs

…new sensibilities and norms are emerging

Top Changes Consumers Have Made Percentage of Respondents Making Signifi cant Change

Prevalent Buying Mindset

Conspicuous Consumption

Cool to Be Frugal

“Our retail and manufacturing clients are seeing almost an aversion to consumption.”

Todd LavieriCEO, Archstone ConsultingNovember 2008

Esteem

Belonging

Safety

Survival

Self Actualization

Source: Leinwand, Moeller and Shriram, “Consumer Spending in the Economic Downturn,” Booz & Co., 2008; Saranow, Jennifer, “Luxury Consumer Scrimp for Sake of Planet, and Because It’s Cheaper,” Wall Street Journal, 4 November 2008; Corporate Executive Board research.

43.2%

39.3%

35.4%

34.8%

32.4%

29.7%

28.1%

28.1%

28.0%

27.0%

38.0%

32.4%

32.1%

31.8%

30.9%

28.3%

36.5%

35.5%

34.8%

33.0%

33.0%

1.7%

Eat Outside the Home Less

Attend More “Free” Activities (e.g., Hiking, Beach, Museums)

Eat at Less Expensive Restaurants

Entertain Friends at Home Instead of Going Out

Eat at Fast Food Restaurants Less Frequently

Buy Sale Items

Pack Lunch for Work

Buy More Store-Label Groceries (Not Buying Top Labels)

Eat More Leftovers

Use Coupons

Drive Less Overall

Order Less Food When You Go Out to Eat

Shop at Less Expensive Stores

Take Fewer Shopping Trips

Reduce Number of Vacations

Fewer Impulse Purchases at Register

Shop at Stores Closer to Home

Top 20 of All Changes Made (Average)

Take Cheaper Vacations (Closer to Home)

Shift Away from More Expensive to Less Expensive Versions

Cut Down on Non-Work Driving

Bottom 20 of All Changes Made (Average)

Spend More Time at Home, Less Away

Frugal Shopping

Reducing Driving

Page 13: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

13MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Etching in StoneThe likely duration of the downturn…

Duration of U.S. Recessions

…will “imprint” new behaviors on a key segment

U.S. “Economically Formative” Population Versus Selected Country Total Populations

2008

Estimates of Time to U.S. Economic Turnaround*

Comparison of Generational Economic Perspectives Aug

ust 19

29–M

arch 1

933

May 19

37–Ju

ne 19

38

Febru

ary 19

45–O

ctobe

r 194

5

Novembe

r 194

8–Octo

ber 1

949

July 1

953–

May 19

54

August

1957

–Apri

l 195

8

April 1

960–

Febru

ary 19

61

Decem

ber 1

969–

Novembe

r 197

0

Novembe

r 197

3–Marc

h 197

5

Janua

ry 19

80–Ju

ly 19

80

July 1

990–

March 1

991

March 2

001–

Novembe

r 200

1

Decem

ber 2

007–

?0

25

50 43

138 11 10 8 10 11

16

6 8 812

Period

Mon

ths

in

Con

trac

tion

Millions of People

* GDP growth greater than 1%. Source: Levy, David, Entering a “Contained Depression,” Institutional Investor, (October 2008); Economists Predict Recession to Last Through 2009, CNN Money.com, (3 November 2008); National Bureau of Economic Research, Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions; U.S. Census Bureau, Monthly Estimate of Population; Corporate Executive Board research.

U.S. "EconomicallyFormative" Population

(17–25 Years Old)

Total Populationof Poland

Total Populationof Canada

35

30

40

National Association of Business Economists

OECD

Cohort Depression Boomers Millenials

Prevailing Economic Conditions

• Loss of wealth• High

unemployment

• Unbroken economic growth

• Low real interest rates

• Income stagnation

• Unprecedented volatility

• Debt tolerance• High

consumption

• •

ResultantEconomic Behavior

• Risk aversion• Compulsive

saving WORK IN

PROGRESSJerome Levy Forecasting Center

Mid 2009

End of 2009

Contraction Through End

of 2009

“Contained Depression” 2011 ~ 2018

Driver #3: Behavioral Shifts

Page 14: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

14MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Changes in Business Demand Are Unfolding Similarly

Businesses also feel less wealthy…

F500 Operating MarginAfter Depreciation, 2000–2008 (Q3)

…and are learning new behaviors

CFO Responses to the Economic Downturn

Source: Computstat; Deloitte; Corporate Executive Board research.

Median WACC for A-Rated CompaniesS&P 500

0%

10%

16%

8%

0%

5%

Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008

5.7%

4.9%

9.1%

0 50 100

82

66

70

52

57

38

56

38

41

25

29

13

16

3

Reduce All Other Discretionary Spending

Reduce Future Hiring

Reduce Capital Spending

Reduce Spending on Advertising and Marketing

Shift Production or Support Functions Overshore

Reduce Current Employee Numbers

Reduce Dividend Payments

2008 Q3

2008 Q1

n = 105.

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Page 15: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

15MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

In SummaryA Signifi cantly Different Environment Poses New Problems for Executives

Our View

Because:

• We are only at the beginning of a signifi cant economic shift in developed economies and the norms that economic conditions create.

• Customer behaviors are in fl ux.

• The “real” downturn is likely to persist for more than four quarters—regardless of GDP recovery—as debt, spending and income return to sustainable levels and excess capacity is absorbed.

• Many customers will carry behaviors learned during the downturn for life.

Executives will struggle to:

• Overcome uncertainty.

• Distinguish important customer behaviors.

• Compete on dimensions other than price.

• Adapt their value proposition—quickly.

• Profi tably manage their product/service portfolios.

Source: Corporate Executive Board research.

Page 16: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

16MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Road Map for Today’s Presentation

The Crisis So Far

What Is Happening with Demand

What the Best Companies Will Do

How We Can Help

Page 17: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

17MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

8%

19%

15%

13%12%

11% 11%

Recessions Radically Restack the CompetitionEconomic downturns change how investors perceive the value of your sales relative to industry peers…

Change in Relative Market Cap to Sales Ratio 1990–1991 Downturn, Versus Industry Peers

…with implications that last for years

Relative Market Premiums Before and After DownturnsTop Versus Bottom Quartile, Indexed

Downturns can more than double the likelihood that a fi rm signifi cantly changes its industry ranking.

Firms who made it into the top quartile during a downturn can signifi cantly increase and sustain their premium over bottom quartile fi rms.

Percentage of Firms Moving Up or Down at Least One Quartile in Market Cap

to Sales Ratio

Premium for Top Quartile

Versus Bottom Quartile Firms, Market Cap to

Sales

(indexed at 12 months before

economic bottom)

-121989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 0 +12 +24 +36 +48 +60

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

2.3x

n = 5,400 Companies Globally. n = 5,490 Companies Globally.

Source: Compustat; Corporate Executive Board research.

Page 18: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

18MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Source: Sabre Holdings Corporation; Corporate Strategy Board research; Business Leadership Forum research; Corporate Executive Board research.

Tactic #1: Embed Uncertainty in PlanningSabre Builds Out Near-Term Scenarios as Part of Its Planning Process

Sabre’s Competitive Dynamics Modeling Exercise2001

Named Scenario

Description

Implications

Origin of Disruption

Nature of Disruption

“Portal Power” “Solidarity” “Newcomers” “Global Cocooning”

Suppliers Competitors New Entrants Buyers

Airline alliances stabilize through equity ownership or asset sharing.

Alignment of agencies and reservation systems increase customer-centric services.

Socioeconomic Retrenchment Drives

Transformation

Economic, political, and social turmoil reduce appetite and ability to travel.

• Reservation systems and travel agencies consolidate and survive on signifi cantly reduced revenue streams.

• Improve ease and comfort of travel experience.

Nontraditional marketing powerhouses enter travel retailing.

• Create new business models and align with innovative intermediaries to meet customer service and distribution needs.

New Entrants Drive Transformation

• Operational effi ciencies enable intermediaries to lower distribution and marketing fees.

• Regulatory environment constrains airline consolidation.

Intermediaries Drive Transformation

• Defend against airline strategies that adversely impact nondirect channels.

• Invest aggressively in operational and marketing CRM.

Airlines Drive Transformation

1 432

Page 19: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

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If—ThenInsights from Scenario Process Guide Intelligent Response

Scenario-Driven Management Decisions

Source: Michels, Jennifer, “Power Up: Sabre’s New Empowering Agenda Is Designed to Help Agents Take Control of Their Future,” Travel Agent, (27 May 2002): 39; “Sabre Announces World Wide Strategic Cost-Cutting Initiative,” PR Newswire, (28 August 2000); Sabre Holdings Corporation; Corporate Strategy Board research; Business Leadership Forum research; Corporate Executive Board research.

Insight Severe drop in demand under a “Global Cocooning” scenario would put a premium on a lean cost base.

Ability to compete against merged agencies and reservation systems will be crucial to success under the “Solidarity” scenario.

Strong relationships with travel agencies will enhance Sabre’s competitiveness under the “Solidarity” scenario.

Despite industry hype about “game-changing” interactive television, genuine signals for “Newcomers” scenario are fl at.

SG&A

Action Sabre embarks on a global cost-cutting program designed to save $100 million annually, prior to the travel slump caused by the 11 September 2001 attacks.

Sabre takes full control of partially owned Travelocity online portal to ensure direct access to buyers; increases European presence through Travelocity.co.uk.

Sabre shares “Solidarity” scenario with agencies to make the case for collaboration and subsequently rolls out the “Empowering Agenda,” a fi ve-point plan designed to help travel agencies revamp their business models.

Unlike competitors, Sabre avoids making sizable, premature investments in the iTV distribution channel, which has not yet yielded the revenue anticipated by many.

Page 20: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

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Tactic #2: Surface Changes in Value DriversAs customers rapidly re-prioritize needs…

Hierarchy of Needs for CustomersIllustrative

…the best companies are hunting for buying behavior changes

Approach #1: State and Test Key Assumptions

Approach #2: Track Lead Customers

“We Assume”

Leading MarketUnited Kingdom

Extreme Customers Key Questions

Identify assumptions underpinning current market strategy.

Use customers in leading markets who exhibit “extreme” behavior…

“But We Verify”

Test them in key markets using short cycle research

…to spot shifting priorities that may “spread.”

Source: Corporate Executive Board research.

• Demand is inelastic for loyal customers

• Service is key component of offer

• •

Purchases Increase • What were you buying before?• Why did you shift to this

product?

Purchases Decrease • What are you substituting with? • What drove the decision?

Association/Image

Convenience

Cost/Value

Functional Utility

Trust/Security

Page 21: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

21MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Tactic #2: Surface Changes in Value Drivers

Tell Me What You WantCaremark Forces Customers to Trade-Off Product Attributes to Identify Key Value Drivers

Caremark Customer Scorecard

Source: Caremark; Corporate Executive Board research; Sales Executive Council research.

Key Performance Measures

• Quarterly Review of program savings• Annual Client Review

• Mail turnaround time __%• Paper Claim turnaround time __%• Call Center stats 30 sec. ASA, 5% ABN rate• Quarterly review of communication efforts

• Mail Order accuracy of 99.9%• Paper Claim accuracy of 99%• Reporting accuracy of 100%

• Plan administration accuracy of 100%• Increase electronic access to prescription benefi t

for patients and Caremark Rx

• Client Report Card• Customer Service Responsiveness; Automated

Call Center Survey• Account Management Responsiveness

Key Performance Defi nition

• Value in Caremark’s products and services provided to you as measured in fi nancial terms, and improvements in fi nancial performance and cost over time

• Caremark’s ability to fulfi ll service commitments in a timely manner; this includes on-time deliv-ery of the appropriate product or service

• Proactive communication of industry news and information. e.g., New Drug Review

• The degree of excellence achieved in core delivery areas

• Caremark’s investment in time and resources, to develop new products and/or service offer-ings to anticipate your needs

• General perception of Caremark’s services, products and behavior

• Flexibility and the ability to respond to constant change and reactive requests

Relative Importance

30%

Caremark’s Performance

4

Performance Category

Value

Satisfaction

Innovation

Quality

Delivery

100%Totals 4.5

10% 5

0% n/a

20% 5

40% 4

Concurrence:CaremarkName: Signature: Date:Michael Bolton 01/07/2001

Name: Signature: Date:Bill Lomberg 01/07/2001(Name) Client

Caremark Partnership Evaluation FormBusiness Objective: Build a strong, long-term partnership including joint strategic planning, proactive account management, and delivery of innovative clinical initiatives to achieve

customer satisfaction focusing on health and cost containment.Customer: Initech Corp.

Joint discussion of metrics provides insight into customer performance drivers.

In the act of weighing performance metric importance, customers are forced to make trade-offs between wants and needs.

Record of performance against customer goals over time serves as valuable fact-based retention tool.

Page 22: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

22MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Desired Customer Attitude/Perception

Current Customer Attitude/Perception

Desired Customer Behavior

Current Customer Behavior

Tactic #3: Explicitly Communicate Differentiators That Matter

Facing retrenching customers that see little difference among brand promises

Customer Perception of Quality VarianceIndexed to Product/Service Quality

…winners will crystallize their most potent differentiators

Vodafone’s Framework for Surfacing Critical Differentiators

Source: Vodafone; Market Research Executive Board research; Sales Executive Council research; Corporate Executive Board research.

“What would have to be true?”Concentrate on the attributes of your proposition that could change the attitudes associated with desired behaviors.

“Who has the best price?”

“I want to buy from you.”

1.40

1.33

1.13

1.09

1.06

1.00

0.99

Sales Experience

Customer Service

Effectiveness of Communication

Value to Price Ratio

Reputation for Execution

Product/Service Quality

Brand Promise

“I need the cheapest thing.”

“I need the most valuable thing, and you

have it.”

Page 23: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

23MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Differentiator SpottingVolvo Sees Opportunities in Its Under-Valued Strengths

Framework for Exploring Potential Differentiators

Volvo asks its sales and marketing teams:

• What is the impact of our unique strengths on our customers’ economics?

• Why don’t all customers appreciate that value?

Unique StrengthCommon Strength

Customers Do Not See Value

Customers Already See

Value

Low-Hanging Fruit

Opportunity

Source: Corporate Visions, Inc. Power Positioning Workshop; Volvo Trucks North America; Sales Executive Council research; Market Research Executive Board research.

Tactic #3: Explicitly Communicate Differentiators That Matter

Page 24: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

24MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Tactic #4: Focus on Commercial InnovationAdjust How—Not What—You Sell in the Near Term to Boost Indispensability

Commercial Innovation “Exploration Map” and Examples

Source: Sales Executive Council research; Business Leaders Forum research.

Customers

How can we expand customer perceptions of our products and

services to grow demand?

How can we boost our customers’

capacity for buying our products and

services?

How can we reduce customer effort/cost relative to competitors?

What privileged knowledge or

capabilities do we have to help manage

customers’ risks?

How can we improve our customers’ knowledge and

capabilities through our buying process?

Sales Experience Innovation

• Grainger’s sales team alters its reps’ pitch to teach customers about unappreciated ineffi ciencies in their own businesses.

• Not coincidentally, Grainger has unique strengths in addressing those ineffi ciencies, enabling the fi rm to monetize its “teaching” commitment.

Product Positioning Innovation

• Procter & Gamble changes the marketing communications supporting its Febreze brand from “a product for deodorizing” (an infrequent need) to “a fi nishing touch to a good cleaning job” (a frequent need).

• The repositioning dramatically grows the product’s market size as the frequency of consideration expands.

Page 25: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

25MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

Tactic #5: Optimize Your Offering to Profi tabilityClorox Forces Determination of “Good” and “Bad” SKUs

Clorox’s SKU Assessment Process

• Product decisions may have multiple competing strategic drivers.

• Strategic goals are frequently supplanted by the needs of the moment.

• SKUs are assessed on a variety of performance and profi tability metrics.

• Tracking numerous metrics for all SKUs increases the diffi culty of setting hurdles.

• SKUs are grouped for analysis according to multiple sets of characteristics.

• Hurdles for each of several metrics must be set for each of several groups.

• Hurdle rates, which a SKU must meet to be considered “good,” are not employed.

• SKU assessment produces multiple categories of non-prescriptive conclusion.

• SKUs are assessed using a dashboard of metrics.

• Some business units may be unable to conduct the necessary analysis.

One Key Driver

Shareholder Return

Two Basic Metrics

Profi t and Volume*

Two Product Types

Large Brand and Small Brand

Four Standard Hurdles

Two Profi t, Two Volume

Two SKU Types

“Good” and “Bad”

Conventional Approach

Clorox Approach

Process Stage

Assessment of SKUs

Setting of Hurdle Rates

Categorization of Product Portfolio

Selection of Key Metrics

Selection of Strategic Driver

Source: The Clorox Company; Supply Chain Executive Board research.* Defi ned in Project Acceleration Toolkit.

Page 26: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

26MLC1ASLIY5 © 2008 Corporate Executive Board. All Rights Reserved.

SKU SkewClorox Sets Simple Parameters to Identify “Good” and “Bad” SKUs

SKU Assessment Process

Avoid Perfection“It’s more important to have your hurdle rates than to worry about getting them exactly right. It’s better to make a few educated choices and act on them consistently than to struggle with accurately evaluating every single possible factor for a single, one-time rationalization.”

Kevin Pegels Director of Supply Chain Planning The Clorox Company

Assessment of SKUs

Setting of Hurdle Rates

Categorization of Product Portfolio

Selection of Key Metrics

Selection of Strategic Driver

One Key DriverShareholder Return

Two Basic MetricsProfi t and Volume

Two Product TypesLarge Brand and Small Brand

Four Standard Hurdles

Two Profi t, Two Volume

Two SKU Types“Good” and “Bad”

* All numbers illustrative.

Volume hurdles are set based on actual per-SKU performance.

Average per-SKU costs are assessed for four key metrics.

Two Profi t Hurdles Two Volume Hurdles

SKUs

Volume

Large BrandSmall Brand• Inventory Holding

• Marketing Expenses• Remnant Costs• R&D Costs

Key Metrics

Source: The Clorox Company; Supply Chain Executive Board research.

“Good” SKU Defi nition

A “good” SKU is one that meets either the relevant profi t hurdle, volume hurdle, or both.

Tactic #5: Optimize Your Offering to Profi tability

Page 27: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

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Road Map for Today’s Presentation

The Crisis So Far

What Is Happening with Demand

What the Best Companies Will Do

How We Can Help

Page 28: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

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Here to HelpOur Resources Are at the Ready to Help You and Your Teams

Economic Downturn Support

https://www.mlc.executiveboard.com/Members/DecisionSupportCenters/EconomicDownturn/Manage.aspx

Source: Marketing Leadership Council research.

Use ideas from the best companies to manage risks, talent, customers, and planning.

Learn about the dynamics driving the downturn and their implications.

Monitor the most recent economic indicators across key markets.

Page 29: The Collapse of Demand 2.2

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MLC1ASLIY5

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