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The complexity of governing international rivers: Central A sia’s A ral Sea basin Eelke P. Kraak – University of Oxford. Governing Central Asia’s river has become highly complex. Post-Soviet geopolitics. 1. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The complexity of governing international rivers:Central Asia’s Aral Sea basinEelke P. Kraak – University of Oxford
Governing Central Asia’s river has become highly complex
• Water and energy are linked by the dams in the rivers. Misunderstanding the nexus causes conflict
• The integrated economic system broke down, which destabilised the political economy of the rivers
• The geopolitical changes since 1991 have created two international rivers that are difficult to govern
Water-energy nexus
Disintegration economic
system
Post-Soviet geopolitics
1
2
3
What can we learn from the Central Asia case study?
Central Asia has two transboundary river basins since ’91Distribution of water resources is highly unequal throughout riparian states
Source: UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 'Water withdrawal and availability in Aral Sea basin', UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005.2/10
Central Asian rivers have a high temporal variabilitySoviet Union tried to make river manageable, building dams, canals, and lakesThe flow of the Syr Darya has
a very high inter-annual variability
Intensive dam construction to tame the river and
maximise water consumption
Source left: cawater-info.net, graph by author. Right: Toktogul dam, source: Ministry of Energy, Kyrgyzstan
Irrigation in Central Asia integral part of Soviet economy
19121918192419301936194219481954196019661972197819841990199620022008
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
3/10
…but over-allocation of water caused the decline of the Aral Sea, one of the world’s largest environmental crisis
Source: NASA Goddard Lab, 2009.4/10
Disintegration of the economic system after independence put increased stress on water-energy system
5/10
Interests of riparian states have diverged significantlyA distinct divergence between upstream and downstream statesUpstream states (Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan)
• Origin of 80% of water
• Water for electricity generation
• No natural resources
• Prefer water in river in winter
Downstream states (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan,
Kazakhstan)
• Abstract 82% of water
• Water for irrigation
• Plenty of oil, gas and coal
• Prefer water in river in summer
Map by author. Please note that boundaries are for illustrative purposes only and do not necessarily reflect agreed borders
Conflict around the operation of Toktogul, the largest dam
6/10
The Toktogul is the single largest dam in the Syr Darya The dam and reservoir connect the water and energy sectorsIt is located most upstream and is a crucial valve for the
river system
Largest storage of water and largest production of power
in Kyrgyzstan
Source: left, Bernauer & Siegfried (2009); right, data ICWC, Ministry of Energy Kyrgyzstan, USAID, graph by author.
Reservoir State Capacity (km3)
Toktogul Kyrgyzstan 19.5Kayrakkum Tajikistan 4.0Charvak Uzbekistan 2.0Chakir Uzbekistan 2.4Shardarya Kazakhstan 5.2
Toktogul cascade91%
Other hy-dro-power
3%Thermal
6%
7/10
Water is increasingly discharged in the winter periodKyrgyz energy demands challenge the Soviet-era status quo of the river
Source: cawater-info.net, graph by author.
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
2
4
6
8
10
12
Km3
discharges in 6 months
There is no successful agreement to govern the operation of the Toktogul cascade
Winter water releases
Summer water releases
Minimal water required for Uzbek agriculture
8/10
Toktogul has classic a upstream-downstream conflictBut there is a more fundamental disagreement on what water is
Water as a commodity Water as a gift from god
…but who is going to pay for the water management?
or
‘the downstream states should pay for water like we pay for
oil and gas’
‘water is part of nature and should therefore be free’
9/10
What can we learn from this case study?
Water-energy nexus?
Virtual water trade
Politics of dam operation
No water wars
10/10