The Crisis and its impact on

migrant employment and

movementsDrawing lessons for the recovery phase

19 November 201019 November 2010

EMN Ireland Research Conference‘Labour Market, the Crisis and Migration’

Jean-Christophe Dumont

International Migration Division

Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, OECD1

Structure of presentation

1. The crisis and comparative changes in employment/ unemployment

2. Which migrants are most exposed and why ?and why ?

3. Policy continuity and changes

4. Impact of the crisis on flows

5. What implications for the recovery?

1. Immigrant population increased significantly prior to the downturn…

30

35

40

2000 2004 2008

Percentage of foreign-born population in total population in selected OECD

countries, 2000, 2004, 2008

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

1. Changes in total employment• A relative synchronization of the evolution of foreign-born and

native-born employment during the economic crisis.

• 300k jobs were lost for foreign-born workers between Q4 2007 and Q4 2009 in Spain (1.5M for NB); US (-1.3M FB ; -6.7M NB); GBR (-120k FB, -675k NB); FRA (-58k FB, -190k NB)Quarterly change in native- and foreign-born employment Q1 2007 to Q4 2009

1. Changes in (un)employment rates• Between Q1-3 2008 and Q1-3 2009 the unemployment rate of the foreign-

born has increased markedly in all OECD countries :

– +11 % pts in Spain, +8 % pts in Ireland and Iceland, +3.4% pts in the EU-15.

– In the United States from more than 4.3% to 9.7%.

• Migrants and non-migrants may have responded differently to worsening labour market conditions. The “added worker effect” seems to be stronger (and the “discouraged worker effect” lower) for migrants than for natives in several countries.in several countries.

Change in unemployment and employment rates by place of birth between 2008 and 2009

2. Which migrants are most exposed to labour market slack?

• Most of the increase in the gap between native-born and foreign-born unemployment is observed among foreign-born men. Migrant women also experienced difficulty, but they are partly protected by their distribution of employment by industry.

• Youth comprise one of the more vulnerable groups during • Youth comprise one of the more vulnerable groups during economic downturns, and especially young migrants. The difference between native-born and foreign-born youth is smaller in some countries (USA, CAN, AUT, DEU, NLD, NOR) but troublingly wide in many (e.g. DEN, ESP, UK)

• Some migrant groups are more affected by the crisis than others. This is the case notably for African-born migrants in most OECD countries including USA, UK and ESP.

2. Why do migrants suffer more in a downturn?

Migrant workers:

• tend to be concentrated in sectors which are more sensitive to business cycle fluctuations;

• have on average less secure contractual • have on average less secure contractual arrangements and are more often in temporary jobs - the first to be in a downturn;

• have on average less job tenure

• may be subject to selective layoffs.

2. But the smaller the bubble, the more the underlying trend is visible…

40

50

60

500

600

700

800

Employment of foreigners in construction, 2005-2009, ‘000s

0

10

20

30

0

100

200

300

400

IT- foreignersSPA - ForeignersIRL- Foreigners (right axis)

Source: National Statistical Offices.

2. Sectoral distribution alone does not

explain all the gaps in most countries

Actual and expected changes in employment of immigrants in selected OECD

countries between 2008 and 2009. Thousands

3. Automatic policy stabilisers reacted to the crisis

• Lower demand from employers is the main brake, but…

• Numerical limits for temporary migration have been lowered (Korea, Italy, Spain)

Migration policies have been put to the test by the crisis – and have largely held up well

lowered (Korea, Italy, Spain)

• Shortage occupation lists have been reduced and labour market tests reinforced (UK, Spain, Canada, Australia)

• Points and qualifying criteria raised

• Temporary permits may be more difficult to renew

• Non-discretionary flows have been subjected to some new limits

– Restrictive access to family reunification

3. … and no major changes were in reaction to the crisis

• New policy initiatives were generally related to structural review, rather than specific weakness revealed during the crisis

– Sweden, Canada, Australia

• Return migration programmes disappointed

– limited uptake (Spain, Czech Rep., Japan)

• Trend towards demand-driven systems continues

– Increasing use of “hybrid” admission criteria giving priority to shortage, region- or employer-selected candidates

• … as does the expansion of programmes for the high-skilled

4. Decelerating flows: less demand for

labour migration• fewer requests (USA) or authorisations (CAN, AUS, NZL)

0

25

50

75

100USA - PERM certified

ET

A (

US

A);

CIC

(C

AN

); B

IA (

UK

); M

TIN

(S

PA

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

CAN - Certifications for TFW

• fewer entries of labour migrants (IRL, JPN, UK, NOR, NLD, CHE, FIN)

0

2006 2007 2008 2009

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2007 2008

ESP - First-time work authorisations issued

Sourc

e: D

OL-E

TA

(U

SA

); C

IC (

CA

N);

BIA

(U

K);

MT

IN (

SP

A)

2005 2006 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Quarterly average 2008 2009 2010

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

High Skilled/Tier 1 Work Permits* Intracompany Transfer*

GBR - Entry visas for employment

4. Decelerating flows: Sharpest decline in free

movement migration

• Free movement continues but at a substantially lower level, and there is a higher level of out-migration (UK, IRL, NZL/AUS, NOR,

Sourc

e: B

IA (

UK

); B

fM (

CH

E);

Sta

tistics N

ew

Zeala

nd (

NZ

L)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

GBR - Worker Registration Scheme registrations

IRL, NZL/AUS, NOR, CHE, ISL)

Sourc

e: B

IA (

UK

); B

fM (

CH

E);

Sta

tistics N

ew

Zeala

nd (

NZ

L)

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2007 2008 2009 2010

NZL - Arrival and departures to and from Australia

Arrivals from Australia of New Zealand Citizens

Departures to Australia of New Zealand Citizens

Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

2008 2009 2010

CHE - Permits issued to free-movement workers by type

B (long-term)

L (short-term)

4. … and in irregular migration

• While it is difficult to separate out border and workplace enforcement, lower demand is also pushing down irregular migration

350

400

Thousands

MEX: inflows/outflows

Migrant Outflows

Migrant Inflows

USA Border Patrol Apprehensions (FY 2000 -2010) and stock of irregular migrants (CY 2000-2009, right axis)

Apprehensions Stock of irregulars

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Thousands

Migrant Inflows

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Millions

Thousands

Apprehensions Stock of irregulars

Sourc

e: IN

EG

I E

NO

E (

ME

X);

DH

S (

US

A)

4. But stocks are not declining

• Net migration continues to be positive in almost all OECD countries (exceptions: IRL, ISL, possibly SPA)

• Labour migration was a small component of flows in most countries, while family reunification and humanitarianflows continue

• The growth in the foreign population during the expansion was largely in the working-age population, but has shifted was largely in the working-age population, but has shifted to the -15 and 65+ population during the crisis

Sourc

e: C

SO

(C

ZE

); IN

E (

ES

P)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CZE - Immigration and emigration

Immigration

Emigration

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

ESP - Stock of resident foreigners

Non-EUEU

5. What will happen during recovery ?

• On the one hand…

– demography should help reabsorption (more retirements of boomers, and smaller youth cohorts)

• But…

– Inflows (family, humanitarian) continue during the – Inflows (family, humanitarian) continue during the crisis

– Risk of scarring effect for immigrants in the labour market

– Public opinion and migration

Thank you.

www.oecd.org/els/migration/imo

(English)

17

(English)

www.oecd.org/els/migrations/pmi

(Français)