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The Current Situation and Recent Trends in Chemical
Industries
4th October 2018Material Industries Division,
METI
1. Trends of Demands in Japanese Chemical Industry
2. Outlook of Supply and Demand in Petrochemical Products, and Chemical Trade
3. Issues in Chemical Industry
1
Contents
1-1 Production Trends in Ethylene Derivatives
(Source: Monthly Statistical Report of Japan Petrochemical Industry Association)
Details of Production Amount of Ethylene Derivatives as of Ethylene (2016)
Monthly Transition in Production of Ethylene Derivatives(Thousand Tons)
2
(Source: Future Trend in Demand and Supply of Petrochemical Products in the World, Fiscal Year 2017 Edition, METI)
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
LD
HD
PVC
EG
SM
LDPE29%
その他
24%
HDPE15%
PVC14%
SM10%
EG7%
Details in production amount of ethylene derivatives in terms of ethylene is the same as the previous year.
In order to satisfy the steadily increasing domestic demands, shipment of ethylene derivatives is mainly concentrated on domestic market, which in turn results in reduced export of the respective products.
Others
1-2 Production Trends in Propylene Derivatives
3
Details of Production Amount of Propylene Derivatives as
Propylene(2016)
Monthly Transition in Production of Propylene Derivatives
ポリプロピレン
58%
アクリロニトリル10%
その他
32%
0
50
100
150
200
250
PPAN
(Thousand ton)
Domestic demands to polypropylene has been steady. Domestic products have tended to suffer in shortages, and imports of resin and polypropylene products have been increased.
Acrylonitrile, the raw material for ABS resin and synthetic fibers, has been constantly produced due to positive market conditions.
(Source: Future Trend in Demand and Supply of Petrochemical Products in the World, Fiscal Year 2017 Edition, METI)
(Source: Monthly Statistical Report of Japan Petrochemical Industry Association)
Others
Polypropylene
Acrylonitrile
1-3 Overviewing Profit System of Japanese Chemical Industry
Sales amount of fine chemicals products steadily increased to reach at the same level as that of basic chemical products.
Fine chemicals products have surpassed the basic chemicals products in terms of operating income.
※Source reports by 30 major chemical companies
Operating IncomeSales
4
Trend of Sales by Segments Trend of Operating Income by SegmentsBillion yen Billion yen
basic chemicals
fine chemicals
Othersbasic chemicals
fine chemicals
Others
2-1 Trend of Global Demand in Petrochemical Products (Prediction in 2022)
Unit:Million ton
Others, 18.8 Others, 21.5 Others, 24.4 Others, 25.8
China, 30.9 China, 40.0
China, 51.1 China, 57.1 Japan, 4.8 Japan, 4.7
Japan, 4.8 Japan, 4.8
Other Asia, 19.1
Other Asia, 22.5
Other Asia, 26.5 Other Asia, 28.4
Europe, 20.8
Europe, 22.0
Europe, 22.7 Europe, 23.1
Middle East, 8.4
Middle East, 9.4
Middle East, 11.1 Middle East, 12.1
US, 21.0
US, 22.3
US, 24.7 US, 26.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
2012 2016 2020 2022
5※Source: METI
Annual growth in global average demand of petrochemical products between 2017 and 2022 is predicted as 3.7% in terms of ethylene.
The growths of major nations and regions are predicted respectively as 6.0% in China, 4.2% in Middle-East, and 2.7% in the United States.
Middle East
Latin America
North America
Oceania
2-2 Global Situation on Supply and Demand Balance as Ethylene
6
AsiaChina
CIS
World
Africa
EU
-13,
701
-16,
353
-24,
596
-27
-611
2,13
0
-3,4
74
-1,1
51
-2,5
20
-7,3
44
-10,
607
-16,
467
-529
-368
-405
9,93
3
17,7
80
20,7
41
-1,2
60
-2,9
71
-4,1
90
-2,1
80
-2,2
92
-3,2
81
6,01
3
7,79
8
12,9
90
1,13
2
7,57
9
8,99
9
2009
2016
2022
Global supply and demand balance of ethylene derivatives tends to expand in excess supply.
In regional aspects, north America and Middle East tend to excess in supply while other regions tend to expand in demand.
Unit:thousand ton※Source: METI
China, 18%
Korea, 6%
Chinese Thaipei, 3%
EU, 29%
US, 16%
Thailand, 5%
Singapore, 3%
Indonesia, 3%
Others, 17%
78,282Million $(2017)
2-3 Chemical Trade in Japan
Export Import(2016)
To All World:81,131M$To India: 1,603 M$
7
(2016)From All World:75,419M$From India:1,064M$
(2017年)From All World:78,282M$From India:940M$
China, 26%
Korea, 13%
Chinese Taipei, 10%EU, 10%
US, 13%
Hong Kong, 4%
Thailand, 4%
Viet Nam, 3%
Indonesia, 2%
Singapore, 2%
India, 2%
Others, 11%
89,344 Million $(2017)
(2017)To All World:89,344M$To India: 1,898M$
Source:Trade Statistics of Japan (HS28-HS40)
Total exports and imports reached a record, due to global and domestic economic situation.
2-4 Chemical Trade between Japan and India
8
About 60% of exports is organic chemicals and plastic products. About 60% of imports is organic chemicals.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
mill
ion
Japan → IndiaChemical Export total : 1,898 million$
(2017)
Inorganic Chemicals Organic Chemicals
Miscellaneous chemical products Plastics
Rubber Others
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
mill
ion
India → JapanChemical Import total : 940 millions$
(2017)
Organic Chemicals Pharmaceuticals Dyes & Colours
Miscellaneous Plastics Others
2-5 Make in India Examples by Japanese Companies
9
Company’s name Established year
Products Locations
1 Otsuka Chemical (India) Pvt. Ltd. 2006 Pharmaceutical intermediates Gurgaon
2 Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd. 1986 Paint Mumbai, Punjab, Gujarat
3 Sumitomo Chemical India Private Limited 2000 Pesticide, Living Environment Related Products, Feed additives
Mumbai
4 Taiyo Nippon Sanso K-Air India Pvt. Ltd. 2010 Industrial gas Pune
5 Taoka chemical India Pvt. Ltd. 2002 Adhesive Chennai
6 Takasago International (India) Pvt. Ltd. 2000 Odoriferous Substances Chennai
7 DIC India Ltd. N/A Printing ink Noida
8 TOYO INK INDIA PVT. LTD. 2006 Printing ink, Gravure ink Noida, Bharuch
9 Toray Kusumgar Advanced Textile Private Limited
2014 Base fabric for air bag Sarigam(Gujarat)
10 MITSUI PRIME ADVANCED COMPOSITES INDIA, PVT. LTD.
2007 Polypropylene compound Neemrana(Rajasthan)
11 Vithal Castor Polyols Pvt. Ltd.(Mitsui Chemical)
2013 Bio-polyol Mumbai
12 Mytex Polymers India Pvt. Ltd.(Mitsubishi Chemical)
N/A Polypropylene compound Gurgaon
10
Source:J.R.Jambeck et al., Science 13 February 2015 pp.768-771
(Ten Thousand Tons/Year)
1st China 132-3532nd Indonesia 48-1293rd Philippines 28-754th Viet Nam 28-735th Sri Lanka 24-64:20th US 4-11:30th Japan 2-6
J. R. Jambeck has publicly released the estimated amount of plastic litter being runoff from land to ocean by countries referring to individual population density and economic circumstance. It has been found that China and Southeast Asian countries have took the first to the fourth places.
3-1 Volume of Runoff Plastics in the Marine Environment
Resin ProductionAmount10.75
Million Tons
Domestic Resin Consumption Amount
9.80 Million Tons
Export and Import of Resin and Plastic Products and the
Like
Loss in Production and Process and the
Like
Usage(Discharge Amount Calculated from the Discharge Model)
Amount of TotalPlastic Waste Discharge
8.99Million Tons
Material Recycle2.06 Million Tons
23%
Chemical Recycle※10.36 Million Tons
4%
Energy Recovery※25.16 Million Tons
57%
Incineration0.80 Million Tons
9%
Utilized Plastic Waste7.59
Million Tons84%
※1 Chemical Recycle:Materials for Blast Furnace and Coke Oven, Gasification Melting Furnaces, and the Like※2 Energy Recovery:Solid Fuel, Cement Raw Fuel, (Electric) Power Incineration, and Heat Incineration Using Thermal Recycle
<Material flow diagram on this page is prepared by Plastic Waste Management Institute and Adjusted by METI>
Reclaimed0.60 Million Tons
7%
Manufacture and Process Discharge Process and
Disposal
Proportion of Direct Disposal is 7% to the Entire Emission
11
3-2 Current Situation in Plastic Recycling in Japan (2016)
3-3 Efforts on Preventing Outflow of Resin Pellets
12
The Japan Plastics Industry Federation has formulated “Manual for Preventing Outflow of Resin Pellets” as an activity for preventing resin pellets outflow, and conducting a follow-up investigation while inviting member companies to conduct prevention activities (since 1992).
Signing on the “Declaration of the Global Plastics Associations for Solution on Marine Litter” (2011).
In 2017, the scope of the activities has expanded to preventing plastic products. Invitation is further extended to chemical manufacturers and relevant organizations to sign on “Declared Activities toward Solving Plastic Marine Litter Problem” (37 companies and organizations has signed as of August 2018).
Source: the Japan Plastics Industry Federation Source: the Japan Plastics Industry Federation
<Created in 1993> < Created in 2002>
3-4 Establishment of Japan Initiative for Marine Environment (JaIME)
<Members>The activities are being expanded to include plastic users as member companies and organizations, with the 22 founders and directorate companies of Japan Chemical Industry Association as the core member.
<Plans for Fiscal Year 2018>1. Organize and Output Information2. Respond to Domestic Situation3. Conduct Cooperative Efforts with Asian Nations
Support Improvement of Managing Plastic Wastes in Emerging Asian Nations4. Accumulate Scientific Knowledge
13
The five Japanese relevant industrial organizations, that are, Japan Chemical Industry Association, Japan Plastics Industry Federation, Plastic Management Research Association, Japan Petrochemical Industry Association, and Vinyl Environmental Council, have established JaIME on 7th September 2018, a council which is responsible to cooperatively take care of the marine plastic.
Signing on the “Declaration of the Global Plastics Associations for Solution on Marine Litter” (2011).
In 2017, the scope of the activities has expanded to preventing plastic products. Invitation is further extended to chemical manufacturers and relevant organizations to sign on “Declared Activities toward Solving Plastic Marine Litter” (the establishment prospectus, March 2018).
3-5-1 Case Examples - Companies’ Initiatives- System Innovation under Cooperation with Society -Company Name Initiative Summary
Kao Corporation
RecyCreation (Verification Project)Collect used refill packs of detergents and shampoos, and process the collected refill packs into recyclable resins through collaborations with municipalities and partner companies (“bricks were manufactured in the verification test”), then utilize the recyclable resins in local areas which have cooperated in collecting.
Used refill packs Cutting/cleaning Pelletizing Recycled into plastic building blocks that can be assembled/reused
Source: https://www.kao.com/global/en/news/2018/20180327-001/
14
Company Name Initiative Summary
SHOWA DENKO K.K.
Manufacture ammonia and conversion into hydrogen from plastic waste, and utilize hydrogen at fuel cells in a hotel and a hydrogen station.
3-5-2 Case Examples - Companies’ Initiatives- Initiative on Chemical Recycle of Disposed Plastics and Low-Carbon Hydrogen Society -
・liquefied ammonia ”ECOANN®” obtained by recycling used for plastic containers and packaging
・Electricity and hot water are supplied by using a pure hydrogen fuel cell installed in a hotel. Hydrogen is also utilized at a facility as hydrogen stations (collaboration with Kawasaki City, Kanagawa).
15
3-5-3 Case Examples - Companies’ Initiatives- Developing New Marine Degradable Material -Company Name Initiative Summary
KANEKACORPORATION
Realization of mass production of biodegradable plastics produced with microorganisms as vegetable oil to be the raw material.In contrast to the conventional biodegradable plastics, the newly developed biodegradable plastic, which is biodegradable in marine, can be used for wide plastic utilization including soft packages. (Degradability in marine has received an oversea third party certification).
Biodegradable Plastic Production(KANEKA CORPORATION)
Difference in Lifecycle between the Biodegradable Plastics and the Conventional PlasticsBiodegradable Plastics
Conventional Plastics
Vegetable Oil
Bioplastics
Polymer Produced by Microorganisms
KANEKA Biopolymer PHBH
Energy Saving
Sustainable
Highly Functional
Greenhouse Gases
Plastic Products
Fossil Energy Resource Such As Oil
Plastic ProductsAtmospher
e Decomposed by Microorganisms
Consumed by Plants
Microorganisms Produce Polymers
Plants
[Cycle]
[Process with No Cycle] Incin
e-ration
Reclam-ation
16
Name of Organization Initiative Summary
The Council for PET Bottle Recycling
The Council has formulated “Voluntary Design Guidelines for Designated PET Bottles" domestically manufactured, which specify rules on bottles, labels, caps to become easily recyclable containers. Resource value of used PET bottles increases, because the domestic business operators manufacture PET bottles which comply with the requirement specified in the Voluntary Design Guidelines.
3-5-4 Case Example - Initiative for PET Bottle Recycling- Efforts Toward Improved Economics in Recycling -
(PE/PP = Specific gravity less than 1.0 and floats in water)1998 Aluminum closures prohibitedBottle Bodies ⇒ PET only/clear and colorless1998 Base cups basically prohibited2001 Bottles with direct printing or
colored bottles prohibited
1994 PVC prohibited (Prevention of color change in recycled material)
1995 Glued paper label prohibited1998 Aluminum foil laminate prohibited
Cap ⇒ Plastic caps
Labels ⇒ Easily removed by hand
17
機密性2
ありがとうございました。Thank you very much!
機密性2
Material: “Quarterly Estimates of GDP”, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan
Reference1-1 Domestic Macroeconomic Condition
Rate of Change in Respective Demand Components(Actual)
Compared to the Previous Period after Seasonal Adjustment. Brackets () Indicate Contribution to GDP in Percentages (%)
(%)
1.20.9
0.8
▲0.0
1.0
▲1.8
▲0.0
0.6
1.5
▲0.1
0.1
▲0.4
0.80.2
0.30.20.7 0.5
0.6
0.2
▲0.2
▲5
▲4
▲3
▲2
▲1
+0
+1
+2
+3
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-12
1-3
4-6
7-9
10-12
1-3
4-6
13 14 15 16 17 18
消費住宅設備在庫公需外需実質GDP
Public demand
Transition of Contribution of Real GDP (Compared to the Previous Period)
Real GDP growth in 2017 (after seasonal adjustment) is +1.6%. In 2018, the GDP annual growth rate in the first quarter period was
▲0.9%, but it recovered to +1.9% in the second quarter period.
2016 2017
①
②
③
④
⑤
⑥
⑦
⑧
⑨
⑩
⑪
⑫
⑬
2016 2017
Consumption
Housing
Capital
Stockpile
Overseas demand
Real GDP
19
機密性2
20
Reference1-2: Domestic Macroeconomic Condition
① 実質GDP(年率)Real GDP (Annual Rate)② 内需寄与度 Domestic Demand③ 外需寄与度 Contribution of Overseas Demand④ 個人消費 Personal Consumption⑤ 住宅投資 Housing Investment⑥ 設備投資 Capital⑦ 政府消費 Government Consumption⑧ 公共投資 Public Investment⑨ 在庫(寄与度)Stockpile (Contribution)⑩ 輸出 Export⑪ 輸入 Import⑫ GDPデフレータ GDP Deflator⑬ 名目GDP Nominal GDP
595.5
560.2
496.7
95.0% 95.5%
93.0%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
16/1 3 5 7 9 11 17/1 3 5 7 9 11 18/1 3 5 7
Reference2 Transition in Running Rates of Japanese Ethylene Center
(Surveyed by METI) ※The Denominator at the Time of Calculation Does Not Include Plants Which were Shutdown or Suspended of Operation Due to Periodic Maintenance or Disaster 21
Production Amount (Unit: Thousand Tons)
Ethylene Production Amount
Running RateRunning Rate(%)
Asahi Kasei Corporation (Mizushima Plant)
Shutdown in February 2016
Running rate of domestic ethylene centers has maintained high due to business reformation of respective ethylene center companies and upturn of market conditions. The operating incomes of the companies have been favorable.
High running rate of 95% or above was kept continuously since November 2015 until June 2018. The ethylene centers were engaged into the full-capacity operation for 33 months.