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7/21/2019 The Dimensions and Influence of China's Africa Power
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/the-dimensions-and-influence-of-chinas-africa-power 1/23
Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences
Vol. 6 , No. 2 , 2013
The Dimensions and Influence of Chinas African Power:
Applying Theoretical Considerations in Practice
Fanie Herman Andrew Szanajda
Abstract: This study applies theoretical properties of internation influence to
trace Chinas attempt to affect the behavior of African states. There are some
important dimensions of power that place Chinas authority into the context of the
African environment, which include scope, domain, weight, and means. In
addition, an analytical framework is employed to shed light on the attempt to
influence African states by looking at the concepts of interdependence, the ability to
influence the behavior of African states and Chinas preferences regarding this
influencing behavior. It is argued that persuasion as an influencing technique
expresses Chinas ability to induce African states to act how they might not
otherwise do, or even consider. This is in contrast to coercive diplomacy that aims
to halt courses African states are already pursuing or to commence with a course
they are not pursuing. Influencing the thoughts, beliefs and ideas of African leaders
in a multidimensional manner rather than acting as a single entity determines this set
of interactions. Attempts to influence the behavior of African states to obtain
outcomes are therefore an indispensable part of its African engagement.
Key words: influence behavior; power dimensions; preferences over
outcomes; persuasion; mutual interaction
1. Introduction
China is currently a major power in international politics. One way in
which it manages to extend the scope of its power is in the exercise of influence in many regions of the world. Africa is particularly prone to the
influence of China wherein it has the ability to influence African nations
into bending to its will. The following analysis provides methods to
determine Chinas influence in Africa, and provides insights into the
operation of influence processes at the international level. There are some
important dimensions of power that place Chinas authority into the context
of the African environment, which include scope, domain, weight, and
means. Chinas exercise of influence relies on one or a combination of thesedimensions. Firstly, the potential power problem, or the ease with which
power resources in one area can be used in other issueareas (fungibility),
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the problem of intentions, and the measurement problem also widens the
outlook. Secondly, the concept of power as it is observed as an attempt toinfluence the preferences, desires, and thoughts of Africa nations, is to be
examined. Reciprocal interaction in political, cultural, and economic areas
follows as outcomes of such attempts. The following determinants shed light
on the attempt to exert influence: (1) China decisionmakers perception
that China and African nations are, or will be, in a significantly
interdependent relationship, and that African nations future behaviors
consequently could well exercise either a harmful or beneficial impact on
China; (2) the prediction that Chinas decisionmakers make regarding thenature of African nations behavior: what are African nations likely to do in
the absence of any conscious attempt by China to exert influence? (3)
Chinas preferences regarding African nations future behavior. The
outcome is that Chinas influencing power is multidimensional in character
rather than monolithic or acting as a single dimensional entity. However, it
is difficult to arrive at an overall estimate of Chinas power due to the lack
of a standardized measurement for the former. This means that power could
increase on one dimension while simultaneously decreasing on another.
Examining threat as an influence technique used by powerful states
over weaker ones is outside the scope of this work. China has expressed to
African states that if a certain preferred act, such as opening the
telecommunications market for inexpensive mobile devices, or restricting
Chinas access to oil exploration is not avoided, China will impose penalties
to induce African states to comply with Chinas demands. This is not within
the strategic objectives that Chinas decisionmakers intend to obtain from
cooperation. Such acts of punishments in the long term will cause greater
harm to China than bring benefits by limiting the opportunities for futurebehavior influence and determine their preferences over outcomes. It is
important for China not to penalize African states, since this will exert
negative influence on African states capacity to clearly recognize
communications from China. Another point to emerge in regard to the role
of threat, and promise to a lesser extent, is that African nations must be
provided with two categories of information. One is the precise nature of
the action that China prefers African states to see in granting
telecommunications concessions to avoid zero industrial growth. Withoutthis information, African states are unable to respond in a mutually
advantageous fashion ( Singer, in Rosenau 391). African states power
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capabilities and the outcomes they desire in relation to each other are not
identical. They also differ in dimensions, the level of interplay, the formsof exercise of power, and are involved in internation influences in their
unique ways. The strengths of one country may be the weakness of
another. Therefore, the goal is not to analyze Chinas influential power
over African states in a bilateral fashion, where interaction is mostly based
on the principles of statetostate diplomacy. Power imbalances indeed exist
in such relationships. Determining how to pool the resources of African
countries so that they are not measured in particular aspects in their
relationship with China, and instead on attributable areas which all thecountries share in common, could serve to redress the balance between
them. Three such areas are: economic interaction, which takes on a
multilateral character through partnerships in the Forum on China African
Cooperation (Focac) and the African Union (AU); security cooperation
in the form of peacekeeping operations and building of security
infrastructure, defense planning and assistance; and the technological
revolution, in which African states are benefitting from Chinas stakes in
telecommunications industries and the media. The term “African states,”
therefore, refers to the expression of these three areas as a unit that defines
how the influence of Chinas power is exerted in African states.
2. Dimensions of Power
The analysis of Chinas power dimensions starts with a distinction
between the old “powerasresources” approach developed by scholars
working in several disciplines, including psychology, philosophy,sociology, economics and political science, and the new “ relational
power” approach, which developed the idea of power as causation
(Lasswell & Kaplan, 1950) . This causal notion conceives of power as a
relationship in which the behavior of A at least partially causes a change
in the behavior of actor B (Baldwin, in Carlsnaes, Risse & Simmonds,
2004: 178) . Behavior in this context may be understood broadly to
include beliefs, attitudes, opinions, expectations, emotions and / or
predispositions to act. In this view, power is an actual relationshipbetween two or more actors ( persons, states, groups, etc. ), rather
than a property of any one of them ( Baldwin, in Carlsnaes, et al,
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2004: 178) . This study follows the relational power approach, and
maintains that there is a possibility that the behavior of China as aninfluencing actor could affect African states. An example that will bring
this point into perspective is how African states that are engaged in trade
negotiations with China could be affected by Chinas bargaining power,
which is superior and overpowers the restraints on Africans states
abilities to negotiate as individual powers. The domain of Chinas power
comes into play here, referring to the number of actors subject to its
influence. In the case of trade negotiations with African states, all of the
actors that engage in mutual trade with China fall within the domain of Chinas influence. In addition, China can have a great deal of influence in
trade negotiations, while in other areas, such as education and social
studies, it may have little or no influence. The weight factor also plays a
role since there is the probability that China could affect African states
behavior. In actual fact, the weight dimension is instrumental for China to
achieve its trade negotiations with African states because it gives China a
greater degree of bargaining power. This dimension could also be labeled
the “ reliability” of As influence (Baldwin, in Carlsnaes, et al, 2004:
178). To extend its trade and negotiation goals, China links issues of lesser
and greater importance, which increases the weight China has over the issue
area. Peacekeeping is one issue area where China plays a significant role in
influencing the behavior of the affected countries, and is thus seen as a
reliable partner in bringing about peace and stability. The missions in
Liberia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and SudanDarfur
serve as examples of this dimension of power. Schelling (1984: 268)
addresses both the costs to A and the costs to B as relevant in assessing
influence. How much cost is entailed for A to influence B? How costly is itfor B to comply with As demands? Some have suggested that more power
should be attributed to an actor that can exercise influence cheaply than to
one for whom it is costly. If China can bring African nations (AU/ Focac)
to do something that is costly, this can be indicative of more power than if
China can only have the latter to do things that are cheap. Even if China is
unable to influence African nations into complying with its demands, it may
be able to impose costs on African nations for noncompliance. Some have
argued that this should be viewed as a kind of power (Schelling, 1984: 267).Does China employ specific means of exercising influence in Africa?
Baldwin ( in Carlsnaes, et al, 2004: 178) classifies means of influence in
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international relations in the following categories: symbolic, economic,
military, and diplomatic. Economic means plays a fundamental part inChinas courting of African states and their willingness to cooperate.
China augments goods, services, and products through economic
interaction; and this means of power certainly stands at the core of Sino
African relations. In the military sphere, China sells weapons and
equipment to African regimes to boost their military and defense
capabilities. Chinese arms manufacturers undertake these transactions in
their effort to satisfy demand in the African market, and to expand
military exchanges and cooperation. Chinas military power is alsovaluable in their peacekeeping operations (PKOs) . In this case, China
intends to show goodwill and become a responsible stakeholder in
international politics. Is there a specific measure that can explain Chinas
power, or are the dimensions the sum total of all the parts? There is no
single right or wrong answer in analyzing this point. However, it is
important to look at the causal concept of power to imply a minimum
set of specifications. This point is effectively expressed by Jack Nagel:
Anyone who employs a causal concept of power must specify domain and scope. To say “X
has power” may seem sensible, but to say “X causes” or “X can cause” is nonsense. Causation
implies an X and a Y — a cause and an effect. If power is causation, one must state the outcome
caused. Stipulating domain and scope answers the question “Power over what?”(14)
A cause and effect relationship is detected when studying SinoAfrican
cooperation. China does not exercise power over other states owing to its
economic clout and status in world politics, without taking the preference
over the outcome into consideration. China has influence over a state suchas Sudan because of the weight dimension. The behavior of Sudan is
affected by the position China takes on human rights, nonintervention in
the domestic affairs of the country, and securing its oil interests.
Peacekeeping troops act under a mission mandate, and following the
traditional style of peacekeeping and protection of civilians is not the main
priority. The main task is to keep warring groups apart, but this is done as
a gesture of goodwill to the Khartoum government, and not truly as an
obligation to keep the peace. In this case, China causes the Khartoumgovernment to behave on the conditions of the bilateral relationship, and
intentionally adapts a position of goodwill and reciprocity.
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However, according to Nagel (15) , there must be an outcome of
this causal concept of power, or otherwise the power A has over B isnonsense. An important outcome for China is the allocating of oil
drilling rights. Sudan is affected by the soft and promising policies of
China, and then grants oil concessions in return. Waltz rejects the causal
notion of power, and proposes “ the old and simple notion that an agent
is powerful to the extent that he affects others more than they affect
him” ( Waltz 192) . However, African states simply do not have the
resources to affect China on their own and therefore build relationships
on the relational power concept. Some neorealist and neoliberal scholarshave sought to avoid the need to specify scope and domain by using the
terms “ capabilities,” or “ power resources,” in their analyses. This
merely shifts the analytical focus from actual causes to potential causes.
Any statement about a states capabilities is based on a prediction about
which other actors can be affected and in which ways ( Baldwin, 1993:
17) . Although Chinas state capabilities surpasses any given or all African
countries in terms of population and territory, resource endowment,
economic capability, military strength, political stability and
competence, some of these are used as capabilities to promote Chinas
interests. What capabilities does China have to influence African
countries? Chinas economic strength and resource endowments are two
capabilities that are utilized in SinoAfrican relations. Lampton describes
the three faces of Chinas ability to act through might, money, and
power. These three terms are also expressed in African cooperation.
Firstly, China has the ability to control and accommodate the agendas of
cooperation. Secondly, China controls the desires and thoughts of
African actors to their advantage. The basic causal concept of power caneasily accommodate either of these phenomena. As Baldwin (1993:
179) notes, A can cause B to do something that B would otherwise not
do by controlling Bs agenda or its options, or by affecting Bs
preferences, desires, and thoughts. For example, China is considered
by the Forum on Chinese African Cooperation ( FOCAC) as possessing
the ability to exercise military, economic, diplomatic and soft power on
the African continent, and is therefore regarded as a great power. Great
powers cause small powers to take note of the opinions of the latterbefore taking actions of their own. International relations scholars have
posited that great power status can be characterized into power
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capabilities, spatial aspects, and status dimensions (Buzan 70) .
One of the problems encountered with economic strength andresource endowment as elements of Chinas power analysis is if they are
treated as powerasresources or power itself. Chinas economic strength
as a power asset in financing development projects, infrastructure
building, foreign direct investments and assisting small and medium
enterprises in establishing trading networks may be a power liability if the
recipients become dependent on China for economic prosperity and
there is not a mutually beneficial relationship evolving. The poweras
resources approach should focus on the means of achieving power, andnot replace the end result. A failure to designate or imply a framework
of assumptions about whom China is trying to get to do what are
comparable to calling a meeting without specifying the agenda. Sprout
and Sprout called this set of assumptions a “ policycontingency
framework. ” Focusing on Chinas capabilities is simply a way of
drawing attention to their potential power. If one wants to know the
potential power of China in Africa, it is imperative to know whether a
situation of dependency or interdependency exists between China and its
African partners. It is possible to make predictions or generalize about
the potential power of China without reference to its goals or capabilities
of the African states. Chinas power resources are the raw materials out
of which relationships with African states are forged. Even though it
might seem that the predictive value of power resource inventories is
impaired by insistence on prior specification of scope and domain, the
opposite is true ( Nagel 27 ) . Whether the accuracy of Chinas
estimation of the adequacy of raw materials to complete its African
projects is likely to improve depends on whether China can first ascertainwhether it plans to be a friendly trading partner or leader.
In addition, the debate on Chinas power politics raises the problem of
fungibility, which refers to the ease with which power resources that are
useful in one issuearea can be used in other ones. Money in a market
economy is the prototypical fungible resource. Indeed, this is one of the
defining characteristics of money. One does not usually need to specify the
scope or domain of the purchasing power of money in a market economy
because the same value of currency can be used to purchase items(Baldwin, in Carlsnaes, Risse and Simmonds, 2004: 180). Chinas uses of
money, time, and information serve as an example of where the fungibility
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of the resources in their given areas can also be useful in others, such as
agricultural and security cooperation. There is no need to specify scope anddomain in these instances, as they fall within the overall framework of
Chinas Africa relations. The fungibility of Chinas power resources will
increase as the amount, in terms of more aid and investment, increases.
Thus, power is said to be more fungible for powerful states than for weaker
ones (Art 40). More power resources can allow China to operate more
widely, such as by influencing more African actors and / or more issues.
However, it is also defined by the given amount of a particular power
resource and not the uses of varying amounts. In the economic sphere,where African countries benefit from loans and investments, richer countries
can buy more than poor countries, but this is not because richer countries
money is more fungible than that of poor countries. The argument is that
China calculates and compares economic aid and political gains in more or
less the same way that consumers calculate and compare the value of goods
in a market, and that money attributes economic value to the PRCs
political capability. Chinas use of money as an economic bargaining tool
and sending peacekeeping troops as a security objective indicates that
interplay between hard power and soft power is taking place. This
reinforces the thesis that China can translate economic power into military
power, and that Chinas practice of power on the African continent shows
signs of fungibility. Many of the most interesting and important questions
on Chinas African relations are related to the ability or inability to realize its
goals. Does the probability exist that China as a powerful actor can further
its interests with African countries, regardless of the basis on which this
probability rests? This point raises the issue of a states contentions (Legro
515) and what China should do with its growing power capabilities. Thereare two arguments that dominate the debate on Chinas intentions. One
focuses on power and likely Chinese revisionism, and the other highlights
Chinas growing interdependence and likely future satisfaction (Legro 515).
Is Chinas future cooperation with African states based on linear projections
of contingency, especially on the exchange of ideas in forums such as Focac
and diplomatic interaction with African counterparts, or is China attempting
to establish power through relative means? Power and interdependence are
important, but their impact is mediated through the doctrines PRC leadersuse to justify action to achieve permanent acceptance and authority. These
ideas are prone to change in regular ways, and Chinas intentions along with
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them ( Legro 515). In the case of China, both its relative power and
economic interdependence affect its foreign relations with Africa. The issueis how the two will do so over time. Chinese leaders do not know for
certain what their country wants in Africa, because of Chinas very own
growth and the process by which it unfolds. Intentions refer to what China
plans to do. An intention is a term that is often associated with aims or goals
or interests. However, it is useful to distinguish between interests and the
ideas that states adopt to attain their interests. Broad interests show relatively
little variation both within and among states. Legro (517) makes the point
that Chinas current intentions are mostly integrationist. China hasmanifested itself in significant increases in cooperative behavior with African
countries and is not seeking separation from the system or aspiring to
overturn it. In addition, China is giving less emphasis to its selfproclaimed
role as “leader of the Third World” (Legro 517). On one hand, China
shows most of the markers of a conservative great power by accepting the
basic principles of the rules of the game in Africa, but on the other hand,
some African states accuse China of hegemonic behavior demonstrating their
intentions to control the system.
Walt emphasizes the notion that states are shaped not just by raw
power, but also by “ intentions. ” It is difficult to understand and predict
Chinas African ambitions without knowing what the government
considers to be appropriate action. Overall, the more China is
economically and socially entwined with other countries, the more it
gains from the system, and the more it has to lose in changing the
system or engaging in any major conflict ( Russett & Oneal) . China
might want to change the African economic system, sometimes in
consultation and agreement with African trading partners and sometimesat its own discretion. Arguments that support engagement certainly
capture an important influence on Beijings thinking today ( Legro
523) . As a result, interaction with African markets generates significant
economic growth and political interests that favor openness to the
international political economy. However, there is also a problem; the
excessively deterministic nature of Chinas economic model for Africa
does not guarantee that integration will continue to develop. Future
directions can still be changed, leading to new policy initiatives andengagement methods. The interdependence of China on African states is
not driven simply by the march of technology, investments, and
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economic aid, but by Chinese ideas as well as those of others regarding
how much China should be engaged with Africa ( Legro 523) . Theway in which power and interdependence might jointly interact with
ideas through predictable mechanisms to cause outcomes provides the
best means for economic development. The opening up policy with
African markets can accelerate integration and rejuvenate the
modernization drive. Power can be conceived in terms of control over
other parties or outcomes. An analyst can look at the initial power
resources that give an actor a potential ability, or they can look at the
actors influence over patterns of outcomes. When an analyst claims thatasymmetrical interdependence can be a source of power, the focus is on
control over outcomes, or the potential to affect outcomes. A less
dependent actor in a relationship often has significant political resources,
because changes in the relationship, which the actor may be able to initiate
or threaten, will be less costly to that actor than to its partners. However,
this advantage does not guarantee that political resources provided by
favorable asymmetries in interdependence will lead to similar patterns of
control over outcomes. There is rarely a onetoone relationship between
power measured by any type of resources and power measured by effects on
outcomes. Political bargaining is usually a means of translating potential
effects, and a lot is often lost in the translation ( Keohane & Nye 9). As
Jiang Zemin said at the 2002 address to the 16th Party Congress, “ It is
essential for the Party to give top priority to development in governing and
rejuvenating the country and open up new prospects for the modernization
drive . . . the progressiveness of the Party is concrete and historical, and it
must be judged by whether the Party promotes the development of the
advanced productive” (Fewsmith 3).Integration facilitates access to institutional fora in Africa where
regional politics are decided that might affect Chinas autonomy. Such
integration also provides the imprint of major power status, confirming that
the country is no longer simply an African actor without a goal, and in fact
has a high stake in influencing regional politics. It is also quite possible to
differentiate between situations in which China intentionally causes a change
in African states behavior and situations in which China does so
unintentionally (Frey, 1989). For example, the visits by high ranking partyofficials to African states and the meetings with leaders intend to strengthen
economic ties and promote cooperation. These are clear policy objectives
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with desired outcomes. One can refer here to the no strings attached
policies of China in business negotiations with African partners. All theparties accept the nonzero sum nature of the negotiations with a winwin
situation. Africa indeed benefits from Chinese aid and assistance programs,
which is a true reflection of their intentions because the money China
promises is what African states receive. The unintended effect of the aid and
assistance programs tends to imply that they are detrimental to the interests
of the countries who receive the money (Stefano 55).
The following section describes the measurement of Chinas power in
the African context. What factors account for a measurement of Chinaspower? Can Chinas power be measured on a single dimension based on a
ranking system compared to other major powers, such as the United States,
France, or the United Kingdom? The difficulty of measuring power leads to
redefinition in order to make operationalization easier (Frey 181). In this
fashion, the measurement of Chinas power can be defined in terms of
supposed resources, e. g. , the ability to mobilize resources, possession of
resources, and other forms of what Elster calls “ generalized fetishist
theories” that attempt to regard relations as properties. Like in economic
transactions, a standardized unit of currency is necessary to evaluate
Chinas power in relation to its political and economic interactions with
African states. Comparing the different dimensions of Chinas power
relations makes the measurement problem a difficult task. Is China
currently the primary contender in exerting influence in Africa? What
issue areas give China the edge in comparison with other major powers
in playing power politics? A partial answer to this question is to look at
the indices of Chinas overall international power, in which diplomacy is
highlighted by persuading African states to do what they otherwisewould not do. The quality of a nations diplomacy gives direction and
weight, and awakens the slumbering potentialities of actual power. The
conduct of a nations foreign affairs by its diplomats is for national power
in peace what military strategy and tactics by its military leaders are for
national power in war (Morgenthau & Thompson 159) . Chinas long
term objectives will be to use diplomacy to make the most of whatever
elements of national power are at its disposal. In the context of Africa,
this means using power potentialities to its best advantage. Competentdiplomacy can increase Chinas power beyond what one would expect it
to be in the view of restraints found in the African environment. High
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quality diplomacy will bring the ends and means of foreign policy into
harmony with the available resources of national power (Morgenthau &Thompson 159) . By giving direction to the national effort, China can
increase the independent weight of certain factors, such as assisting
African countries with industrial growth, exchanges in military exercises
and cooperation with African partners, and projecting an image of
national character and morale. China must be willing to use these
elements of national power to distribute power within specified scopes and
domains, and provide a means to establish political and economic influence.
These demonstrate power and influence as instruments of foreign policywith the focus on the actions governments take toward others in order to
defend or achieve their purpose (Holsti 117). An act is basically a form of
communication intended to change or sustain the attitudes and behavior of
those upon whom the acting government is dependent on for achieving its
own goals. It can be viewed as a “signal” sent by one actor to influence the
receivers image of the sender ( Jervis, 1970).
In international politics, acts and signals take different forms. The
promise of granting aid, such as China in connection with Africa, is an
act, as are their propaganda appeals in peacekeeping, and the flexing of
their military muscle by selling arms and ammunition to African states.
The textile dispute between China and South Africa serves as an example
where the signals sent by China influenced the South African
governments resolve to sign an agreement in 2004. These types of acts
and signals are likely to succeed if diplomatic persuasion is used as an
influencing technique. Diplomatic persuasion appears to involve the least
amount of threats and is an ordering principle that can sustain or change
the behavior of other states ( Holsti 118 ) . Diplomacy has beencharacterized as “ the master institution,” or more prosaically, as the
“engine room” of international relations. These and other labels point
to diplomacy as an essential institution for the conduct of interstate
relations (Sharp 36) . One element of diplomacy that bears particular
relevance to Chinas African relations is its peaceful character, juxtaposed
to the view that diplomacy is seen as the opposite to war or any use of
force. Chinese decision makers regard diplomacy as an instrument of
foreign policy that aims to establish and develop peaceful contactsbetween the PRC government and the African states, through the use of
intermediaries recognized by the respective parties. Two generic
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concepts are represented in the practices of the specific Chinese actors:
representation and communication (Sharp 51) . Chinese agents act onbehalf of their government, as a response to a common problem of
living separately and wanting to do so, while having to conduct relations
with African counterparts, and communication that emphasizes the
logical and necessary conditions for the existence of these relationships.
3. Chinas Power to Influence
Influence politics, which is essentially a means to an end, is an aspect of
power that encapsulates Chinas capacity to control the behavior of
African governments through their acts, images, and policies. China
seeks influence for its own sake, mainly for prestige and use of economic
tools and relationships to achieve foreign policy objectives. Further to
this point is the strengthening of security frameworks in the form of
peacekeeping and increasing its communication networks in the African
media sector. China in its acts towards individual or a multitude of
African actors uses or mobilizes certain resources. The resources cited
here refer to physical or mental objects or qualities available to persuade,
reward, threaten, or punish. For example, China influences the
behavior of African governments by offering economic incentives and
rewards that are highly efficient in bringing about the compliance of
these governments with Chinas actions. It is likely that the diplomatic
gestures and words accompanying Chinas actions are as important as the
acts themselves. In addition, the impact of peacekeeping troops in
African countries signals an intention to assert a stronger security and
military presence, although peacekeeping is not seen as an act of military
intervention or threat, but a process to act as mediators in postconflict
societies and to facilitate diplomatic communication. If China can
influence African states into following its economic model, while the
latter does not have a plan of its own that offers a better solution to
economic problems, then China has more power regarding economic
issues. Power, therefore, can thus be viewed as a quantity; but as a
quantity, it is only meaningful when compared to the power of others.Power is therefore relative according to Holsti ( 119 ) . The
concept of power can be broken up into three distinct analytic elements:
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Power comprises: (1) the acts ( process, relationship) of influencing
other states; (2) the resources or leverage used to make the wielding of influence successful; and (3) responses to the acts. The three elements
must be kept distinct ( Holsti 119) . In terms of defining operational
goals, China should ask the following questions, as generalized from
Holsti (119) . (1) What do they wish African states to do? (2) How
shall China get African states to do or not to do ( the relationship and
process) ? (3) What resources are at Chinas disposal to induce African
states to do or not to do? (4 ) What would be the African states
probable responses to Chinas attempts to influence their behavior? (5)What are the costs of taking actions, as opposed to other alternatives?
The very classification of African states economic behavior by China as a
potential influencing party immediately leads to some degree of influence
by African states upon China, even when African states do not make
conscious attempt at influence. Singer (381) denotes a general property of
influence as the distinction between an attempt at influence and the
outcome of such an attempt. Not only are they not the same phenomena,
but they are also described and measured in terms of different variables. The
model Singer proposes can be applied to SinoAfrican relations in the
following manner: ( a) Chinas prediction as to how African states will
behave in a given situation in the absence of the influence attempt; ( b)
Chinas preference regarding African states behavior; and ( c ) the
techniques and resources China utilizes to make (a) and (b) coincide as
nearly as possible. The outcome of such an attempt will be a function not
only of (c) but also (d) the accuracys prior prediction;(e) Chinas own
value, utility, or preference system; ( f ) African states estimate of the
probabilities of various contemplated outcomes; ( g ) African statesresistance ( or counterinfluence) techniques and resources; and ( h) the
effects of the international environment. The exercise of Chinas influence
implies more than the ability to change the behavior of African states.
Influence is also seen in Chinas continuing its economic diplomacy that is
useful to or in its national interests (Singer 426).
Focac is an example in which the exercise of Chinese influence
does not cease to exist because the members of this group continue
reinforcing Chinas behavior. It is almost impossible to assume asituation where Focac does not influence the behavior of China.
Influence in this model is exercised multilaterally rather than in one
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direction. For example, China would not seek particular goals in Focac
unless it is influenced in a direction by the members of this group. At aminimum, the problem of feedback contributes to behavior where both
China and the member states change their behavior to satisfy the
demands of the other group. Focac members can also, in anticipating
rewards from China, change their behavior before China makes any
“ signals” about possible action ( Jervis 2000) . The member states can
then assess their situations and compile economic agendas based on
perceptions of reality and foreign policy needs. China may also try to
influence Focac members not to carry out certain actions, such as votingagainst Chinese oil extraction policies and closing markets to Chinese
goods because of tariff and quota regulations. This is a relationship that
China tries to avoid because of the negative power connection and the
undesirability to Chinas economic interests.
The second element of the concept of power consists of those
resources that are mobilized in support of the acts taken to influence
African states behavior ( Holsti 120 ) . Chinas wielding influence
includes tangibles, such as money, wealth, information, time, control
over infrastructure building projects, investments, personality, and
leadership qualities (Dahl 2005) . However, it is crucial for China to
command the obedience of African governments to mobilize these
resources for political purposes along with the skills to mobilize them.
For example, the amount of influence China wields in peacekeeping
support is a direct consequence of its growing military capability in
pursuit of foreign policy objectives. On the other hand, Chinas
growing military capabilities do not necessarily determine the uses to
which they will be put. Chinas peacekeeping capabilities can also beseen as a function of promoting universal peace and development rather
than as an outcome of its foreign policy.
Hence, the types of objectives China formulates and how it attempts
to implement them depend on the resources available instead of their
quality and quantity. In contemporary international relations, it is also
true that “ strong” states do not achieve their objectives, even when
attempting to influence the behavior of “ weak” ones ( Holsti 121) .
Despite its overwhelming economic superiority and negotiation powerwith African states, why is there still a sense of uncertainty over Chinas
capability to achieve its major foreign policy objectives? How can “small”
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African states gain trading privileges and all sorts of diplomatic concessions
from China considering its great economic wealth and military power?The assumption is that Chinas ability to influence the behavior of African
governments is also enhanced by various factors, such as personality,
perceptions, friendships, and traditions. These factors render power
calculations and equations difficult due to their intangibility.
Diplomatic persuasion by means of economic rewards and grants is
probably the most successful influencing factor in Chinas ability to
change the behavior of African states. The quantity of Chinas resources
cannot always be equated with effective influence due to the distinctionbetween overall capabilities and the relevance of resources to a particular
diplomatic situation. The extent to which Chinas military is modernized
increases diplomatic influence in countries that seek to buy Chinese
weaponry. In addition, the sending of peacekeeping troops to Africa is an
important element for the military to fulfill strategic goals in the African
peacekeeping environment. Although Chinese peacekeeping troops boost
prestige abroad, the amount of serving troops is not most significant.
What is of greater relevance is Chinas ability to signal its determination to
use them. African states must know that the capability to send
peacekeeping troops is not of mere symbolic significance. They are in fact
mobilized in support of foreign policy objectives being made credible.
An important variable that determines the success or failure of acts
of influence is the extent to which there are needs between the two
countries in any influence relationship. In general, a country that needs
something from another is vulnerable to its act of influence ( Holsti
123) . African states that are deficient in many capabilities can obtain
concessions from China in exchange for other goods and commodities,considering Chinas dependency on African oil and mineral resources to
satisfy their domestic economic needs. On the other hand, the African
countries that have these resources may not be so dependent upon China,
particularly if they can sell these resources to other countries. In this
situation, needs are not equal on both sides. The African states that are
independent in terms of needs can make demands on China and obtain
important concessions, or at least resist demands made against them. The
Chinese government knows that if they do not make concessions toAfrican states, especially in trade and business deals, or if they press their
own demands too aggressively, African states can threaten to cut off
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supplies. China is thus vulnerable to the demands and influence acts of its
African trading partners and has to wield influence in a promising andrewarding manner to sustain or change the behavior of African states.
The level of technical expertise is another variable that has an effect
on the relationship between China and its African trading partners. The
number of issues discussed in Focac and bilateral meetings is indicative of
how leadership often depends more on knowledge of technical issues
than on other types of resources. Chinas heavy investments in African
technology shows that the government is prepared to put forth realistic
solutions to African governments that only have a rudimentaryknowledge of many technological problems. Chinese takeovers of
African telecommunication systems demonstrate conclusively that
outcomes of negotiations on technical questions cannot be predicted
from the gross power of the participants while it relies on knowledge.
One final variable involving costs and commitments should also be
identified ( Holsti 124 ) . Chinas success in wielding influence over
African states is also related to the extent to which the objectives of all
the countries involved are compatible, or the degree of commitment
each government has toward those objectives. Chinas influence is
indeed based on strong engagement factors that have a mutual resolve for
African states. Focac members are aware that commitment serves their
interests and that cooperation is preferred to defection.
4. Persuasive Diplomacy
Chinas persuasion politics are regarded as an identifiable mode of
connecting with the thoughts, beliefs, and behaviors of African states. The
concept used here refers to negotiations that form the backbone of Chinas
diplomacy with its African partners, and is the formalized process relying on
verbal communication. However, the parties also use bargaining, which
can be seen as a broader concept, including the exchange of verbal as well
as nonverbal communication, and formal as well as informal exchanges
( Jonsson). Bargaining is an important element in Chinas intentions to
influence the behavior of African leaders and officials because it ischaracterized by the coincidence of cooperative, conflicting, and
interdependent decisions. As such, Focac is an example in which member
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states and China aggregate conflicting and similar interests into a single
decision. Regardless of a formal decision rule, an element of negotiationusually precedes social decisions, and negotiation is the primary and
predominant mode of reaching joint decisions ( Zartman & Jeffrey ):
“Without common interest, there is nothing to negotiate for, and without
conflict, nothing to negotiate about” (Ikle 2).
Interdependence between China and Africa entails the need for
mutual rather than unilateral action and renders the best course of action
by individual actors dependent on the behavior of others ( Jonsson) .
China and African parties may exchange nonverbal signs, orbargaining. Each party is aware that their own actions are being
interpreted and anticipated, and each acts with a view to the
expectations that they create ( Schelling ) . The proposals put forward by
Chinese diplomats ostensibly influence the realizations of common
interests for African actors and lead to reaching an agreement. By
initiating and discussing proposals with African countries in Focac,
China can use persuasion as an influencing technique to elicit favorable
responses without holding out the possibility of punishments. The
assumption is that China does not exercise influence to go against the
wishes of the Focac members, and that cooperation is based on only two
outcomes: the one favoring China and the other favoring Focac. This
results in reciprocal interaction that leads to positive results for both
parties and the gaining of rewards in the future. For example, China
promises different types of rewards to Focac members if they comply
with Chinas wishes. In order to gain the diplomatic support of African
countries at multilateral organizations, such as the United Nations, the
nonaligned movement and southsouth relations in general, China mayoffer to increase foreignaid payments and lower tariffs on imported
goods. The offering of rewards plays an important role in the
negotiations at Focac and keeps members committed to the agendas
being discussed. In some instances, China also grants rewards to African
countries on issuespecific contexts, such as communication facilities.
The huge investment drives to develop the telecommunication
infrastructure of African countries shows that rewards are offered on the
premises of compliance. First, African states accept that China has theability to improve the communication sector and complies with the rules
of the trade. Second, the rewards are seen as an incentive that can
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strengthen future cooperation in communication, and lowers the
possibility of punishments. For example, China can protractnegotiations and slow down the overall development of the
communications sector, which will have a negative impact for African
countries that intend to comply with Chinas future negotiations on
communication and technology. In some instances, African countries
insist that China provide a reward before they will comply with Chinas
demands. The building of schools and roads in postconflict societies
serves as an example where the actions China takes to repair the
countrys infrastructure are more important than the discussions betweendiplomats at the negotiating table. The new African Union headquarters
office in Addis Abbeba, completely built by China, illustrates African
states compliance with Chinas preferences regarding future behavior
(African Union Opens ChineseFunded HQ in Ethiopia, 2012) . A
statement released by the AU revealed that the building of the new AU
Conference and Office Complex free of charge to the AU is testimony
to the real value this partnership brings to Africa (The African Union,
2012) . The perception is also shared by the Chinese decisionmakers
who believe that both parties are, or will be, in a relationship of
significant interdependence, and that future behavior with the AU
consequently could exercise either a harmful or beneficial impact on
China. China also examines the economic behavior of some African
countries, and if the behavior is favorable to the advancement of its
economic interests, preferential trade agreements are established (Zero
tariff trade to aid African trade, 2005) . However, Chinese decision
makers will make probability predictions about the future behavior of the
countries they want to sign deals with before trade agreements aresigned. The decisionmakers might ask what the target countries are
likely to do in the absence of any conscious influence attempt by China.
5. Conclusion
Two aspects of power are identified in this paper: the first one is the set
of national attributes or capabilities China uses to convert resources intoinstruments of foreign policy and second, the actual set of interactions
between China and the African states deemed important for achieving
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their respective goals. In looking at Chinas influence over African states,
power means the ability to have an impact on the behavior of Africanactors, to affect opportunities available and their willingness to choose
particular courses of action. Chinas power influence is not concerned
with a comparison of capabilities built on sets of national attributes but
more with the ability to overcome obstacles and influence outcomes. This
is a useful formulation because it indicates that China uses power as an
ability to get what it wants and to achieve a desired outcome through
changing the behavior of African states. The interactions do not mean
that China influences every outcome or controls African social andphysical environments. Control over African states would mean these
actors have lost all autonomy and have no decisionmaking capacity. The
influence is also not one of establishing authority because authority is
something that can only emerge in legitimate relationships, which ex
hypothesis do not exist between states (Brown & Ainley 90). An essential
feature of the nature of authority is that those over whom it is exercised
acknowledge that those exercising it have a right to do so, they are
authorized to act. In international relations there is no authority in this
sense of the term, or at least not with respect to issues of any real political
significance (Brown & Ainley 90) . China would rather like to control
the African environment and not control the sovereign, independent
status or legitimacy of African states. By exercising power over the
environment a method is established by which the Chinese government
can achieve their outcomes and not depend on changing the behavior of
states alone. China uses behavioral power to a great extent in influencing
the thoughts, beliefs, and ideas of the leaders of these states and move
diplomacy and negotiations in a certain direction. Even though Chinainfluences African states to halt a course it is already pursuing or to
commence with a course of action it is not pursuing, an exercise of
power known as compliance and explained by the model of Singer, it
stops short of coercive diplomacy. Looking at Chinas interaction with
African states and its role in Focac, coercive diplomacy or “ forceful
persuasion” that relies on the threat of force or the threat to use force will
not include positive inducements from its African partners. The influence
techniques explained in the study aim to induce SinoAfrican powerrelationships through compliance and negotiation without resorting to the
use of force by any means. China motivates African states to submit to its
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wishes, while appearing nonthreatening at the same time. The need for
development capital (money and goods) and for technical and technologicalskills to build modern economies is very high on the agenda for African
states. Aid from China is therefore very useful in the SinoAfrican influence
relationship. Giving or withholding aid, or attempting to create dependencies
through its use strengthens trading interests and establishes new investments. In
dependency relationships it is said that aid is provided with strings; the
recipient may be required to buy or trade for goods it does not want or need
if it is to receive the aid it desires. China expects to gain some clear benefit
for its foreign and national security goals through these dependencyrelationships. Attempts to influence the behavior of African states to obtain
outcomes are therefore an indispensable part of its African engagement.
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C o p y r i g h t o f F u d a n J o u r n a l o f t h e H u m a n i t i e s & S o c i a l S c i e n c e s i s t h e p r o p e r t y o f F u d a n
J o u r n a l o f t h e H u m a n i t i e s & S o c i a l S c i e n c e s a n d i t s c o n t e n t m a y n o t b e c o p i e d o r e m a i l e d t o
m u l t i p l e s i t e s o r p o s t e d t o a l i s t s e r v w i t h o u t t h e c o p y r i g h t h o l d e r ' s e x p r e s s w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n .
H o w e v e r , u s e r s m a y p r i n t , d o w n l o a d , o r e m a i l a r t i c l e s f o r i n d i v i d u a l u s e .