THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LICENCE-EXEMPT SPECTRUM Richard Thanki – ICSS, University of Southampton

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LICENCE-EXEMPT SPECTRUM

Richard Thanki – ICSS, University of Southampton

The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki 2

Introduction

Me ICSS Microsoft

• 2009 and 2012 studies• former Ofcom economist and principal advisor to the Independent Spectrum Broker• current PhD researcher

• £12m institute at the University of Southampton• focused on complex adaptive systems, such as genetics, climate science and economics

• Important financial and technical assistance for the completion of the 2009 and 2012 studies


The success of licence-exemption

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The success of licence-exemption

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The role of licence-exempt spectrum in delivering access to broadband internet

Connecting all the people


The shape of smartphone traffic

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sites needed (8 x rise in peak traffic)sites needed (4 x rise in peak traffic)

140,000 to 450,000 extra sites required immediately (an additional 8 – 20%

sites worldwide) At a cost of $30 - $90

billion (very conservative)

A minimum of 9,000-18,000 in the UK

The number would escalate quickly in the coming years

Additional costs of mobile, absent Wi-Fi


The global digital divide, and the role of white space spectrum

Broadband remains unaffordable and unavailable for the majority

Many countries have invested in fibre backbones

But all existing models are too expensive without a dense population or large subsidies

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The only model that has proven commercially viable in rural areas is that of WISPs

Area coverage limited by high frequency licence-exempt spectrum

TV White Spaces could supercharge the WISP model

potentially bring high quality broadband to hundreds of millions of unconnected people for a fraction of the cost of mobile technologies

The Economic Impact of Licence-Exempt Spectrum - Richard Thanki

The global digital divide, and the role of white space spectrum


The role of licence-exempt spectrum in enabling machine-to-machine connectivity and the internet of things

Connecting everything else


The human internet

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The human internet



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The machine internet

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The machine internet

In communications• Mobile phones• Fixed line phones• Fax machines• Routers

Inside PCs and Smartphones• Monitors• Touchscreens• Wi-Fi chipsets

In the home• TVs, DVD players• Games consoles• Toys• Appliances

In medicine• Dialysis machines• Defibrillators• Ventillators• Pacemakers

In vehicles• Antilock brakes• Fuel injection• Climate control• GPS

In the military• Aircraft• Armoured vehicles• Missiles• Radios

In cities• Street lighting• Traffic control systems• Toll booths

In the environment• Pollution/air quality

monitors• Weather stations

In industry• Control circuitry• Machine tools• Monitors/sensors


Connected examples

Connected Vine• Sensors to check

soil moisture, temperature and light intensity information

• Actuators to control drip irrigation system

• Trialed and described by Xiang 2011

Connected Bridge• Wireless sensors

monitor structural integrity

• Products in use from Motorola, Innodev, Microstrain etc.

• Systems described by Xu 2004, Pakzad 2008, Harms 2010

Connected Heart• Pacemakers and

internal defibrillators constantly monitor heart activity

• Can upload information and be programmed wirelessly

• Developed by Elmqvist 1958, Mirowski 1978


Economic value possibilities from the IoT Today Cisco and

Ericsson predictions

Our prediction

Number of connected devices

4 bn 50 bn 100 bn

Forecast Year 2012 2020 2020

Pairwise connections

8 × 1018 1.25 × 1021

5 × 1021

Ratio against today 1 156 625

Even if each new machine connection generates only one-hundredth of the value of one of today’s human connections, the economic value generated by the internet by 2020 would be $1.4 to $2.2 trillion per year – around five times the value generated by the internet today.


The role of licence-exempt spectrum in the IoT

Share of machine connections

LicensedLicence-exempt

Licence-exempt connections will dominate the internet of things

Technical considerations Latency/network control Battery life and energy

usage Options – Wi-Fi,

Bluetooth, Zigbee etc…

Cost considerations Substantially cheaper

chipsets No ongoing subscription

fees


The role of white space spectrum in enabling the IoT

White spaces can deliver: broadband speeds excellent obstacle penetration low power usage

Europe has no broadband-suitable licence-exempt spectrum below 1GHz

Hindering smart grid deployment (in the UK up to 1/5 of home meters are beyond the reach of mobile networks)

Licence-exempt technologies dominate smart grid in US where suitable spectrum is available


How networks built using licence-exempt spectrum help to reduce the fragility of telecommunication networks

Resilience and adaptability

The Importance of Licence-Exempt Spectrum 27

Robust human and natural systems

Examples of natural and human resilient and adaptable systems


Creating diverse architectures

Without LE With LE


The role of white space spectrum

In emergencies telecommunications networks often fail specialised personnel or equipment may not be available licence-exempt equipment can be repurposed easily.

Value of Wi-Fi seen in response to Japanese Tsunami, Hurricane Katrina and the Haiti earthquake, etc.

Often the first networks to go back up FON made 500,000 Wi-Fi hotspots in Japan open access

The range and penetration of white spaces is ideal for this purpose, especially if there is rubble and structural damage

Japan is investigating the use of white space technology specifically for this purpose

Documents

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LICENCE-EXEMPT SPECTRUM Richard Thanki – ICSS, University of Southampton