The effect of the cuts on government statistics and their use

Radical Statistics’ working group on Reduced Statistics

RSS conference, Telford, 5 Sept 2012

www.radstats.org.ukStatistics for a changeSocial responsibility in

statistics

UK official statistics: development

• Army and taxation• WWII created the CSO• Expansion of GSS in the 1970s• Rayner Review and contraction 1980s• 1990s-2000s expansion• Legislation and its impact

Purposes of official statistics?

• Appraisal and evaluation of policies by civil servants and those working on government's behalf

• To support 'enterprise', 'knowledge', 'innovation' - statistics used for things from market to fundamental academic research

• Democratic accountability for the outcomes of policy, providing a basis for debate in the public sphere (for NGOs, think tanks, political parties or movements)

Measuring the production of statistics

• Inputs (expenditure)• Staffing• Activity (publications, series, surveys) • Quality• Effectiveness

Expenditure

• Comprehensive Spending Review 2010/11- 2014/15: reduce public expenditure in response to national economic debt

• Impossible to identify government spending on Statistics or Research– John Beddington to House of Lords Nov 2011: “has involved a team

working for about four or five months to get as far as we have, and I have to question the allocation of resources”.

– DfID commissioned research +59% 2010/11 to 2014/15– DEFRA commissioned research -21% 2010/11 to 2014/15– DWP commissioned research -20% in one year to 2011/12– DCLG commissioned research -63% 2008/09 to 2011/12

• Research Council spending -10% over 4 years in real terms

Expenditure – local government• Budget 2011/12 : 10% below the out-turn in 2009/10 (IFS, 2012).

– larger authorities serving the poorest areas suffering larger cuts– In half, Development and Planning functions cut by 40% or more

• “monitoring and evaluation roles appear to be one of the foremost casualties of back office efficiencies in many, if not all, authorities”. – “important implications for the development of an evidence base capable

of facilitating understanding of the scale and impact of budget contraction.” Hastings et al., 2012, based on budget documents and interviews

• Half of local authority researchers experienced budget drops in their department in both 2010/11 and 2011/12 (LARIA/PMN, 2012)– Of the drops each year, a quarter are severe rather than moderate.

• “Achieving more with less”– Greatest challenge in 2011 (52%) and 2012 (42%)

Staffing

• A four-way table:– Economists – Statisticians – Operational Researchers – Researchers – Full time equivalent staff in each Government Department– March 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and estimated for current financial

year – a) below Grade 6 level, b) at Grade 6 or above

Staffing: Government Statisticians, Economists, Social Researchers

Economists

Social Researchers

Add 60-80 for SCS (Senior Civil Servants)

Source: UKSA Committee on Official Statistics; headcounts

Central and local govt time series

Activity• The TellUs Survey (Schools)

– children and young people's views and self-reported behaviour

• The Citizenship Survey (DCLG) – race equality, faith, feelings about their community, volunteering and

participation

• The Place Survey (DCLG) – National indicator set for evaluating local government performance

• Statistical series– All regional reporting by DCLG, the Electronic Survey of Empty Homes,

Neighbourhood Statistics on Vacancies and Second Homes, and dwelling stock by Council Tax Band, Houses in Multiple Occupation, …

– UKSA note cessations reported to the National Statistician

Number of National Statistics by Theme 

In the year to March...Deleted 2011-12 (merged, ceased, lost status)2008 2010 2011 2012

A&E Agriculture and Environment 116 123 111 28

B&E Business and Energy 39 42 46 1

C&J Crime and Justice 49 55 47 10

C&R Compendia and Reference   4 2 3

CES Children, Education and Schools 97 97 86 16

Econ Economy 195 185 125 44

Govt Government 43 42 33 5

HSC Health and Social Care 246 284 208 102

LM Labour Market 32 37 34 1

Mig Migration 3 3 3

P&P People and Places 93 72 64 18

Pop Population 105 101 115 9S&W     1 1

T&T Travel and Transport 67 88 60 32       Total   1193 1085 1135 932 272

Reduction in Economy and Government oddly more than reported as deleted. Reduction in ad hoc analyses: 157 -> 120 -> 46

Quality

• Planned reductions in quality– Sample size of eg. household conditions survey

• The unplanned impact of reduced staff– Checks and validation– Engagement (morale) – Civil Service survey– Reorganisations have tended to interrupt and de-skill services

• Voluntary redundancy schemes tend to take the more experienced staff

Effectiveness

• Economic impact (Charles Beagrie Ltd & CSES, 2012)– The effects of withdrawing a service– ‘How much would you accept to not have this service?’– The results valued the ESRC’s Economic and Social Data Service at five

times more than the investment made to fund them.

• How to weight the opinions of different users?– The occasional user of benefit take-up statistics who finds them

essential

• I think: not of practical help in the short term

Some features• Easiest pruning

– Commissioned research including surveys– Political hits – previous administration’s projects– Analysis rather than staff or core data

• Also the profession’s strategy to ‘retain capacity’

• Coalition philosophy– Localism, let others do government, monitor themselves– Away with targets (setting them and missing them)– A market of services: led by demand not neediness

• Variation in impact– Government department DfID, MoD ↑, CLG, DWP, DfES, DEFRA ↓– Local Government variation in decreases

William Farr1807-1885

First ‘compiler of abstracts’ at General Register Office after civil registration began in England and Wales in 1837. Wrote commentaries on trends in births, deaths and population. Developed classifications of diseases and causes of death.

ONS business plan 2012:Health analysis no longer a priority

What to expect – medium term• Data without interpretation

– Reduction in analysis– Open Data without validation – Vulnerable reputation of official statistics

• Diversity of state provision – Incompleteness and variety of administrative data– Standards, co-ordination, responsibility to self-monitor?

• Cumulative impact on democratic accountability– Equality agenda without benefit statistics take-up analyses– Public order agenda with reduced regional and local statistics

• Resignations at UKSAwww.radstats.org.uk

Statistics for a changeSocial responsibility in

statistics