The Emerging Video Internet

EcosystemWilliam B. Norton

NZNOG 2010I started noticing the video...

This talk was funded in part byInternetNZ

InterStream Associationand DrPeering

Evolution of the U.S. Peering Ecosystem

Content ProvidersContent Providers

Tier 1 ISPsTier 1 ISPs

Tier 2 ISPsTier 2 ISPs

T T

T

Source: The Evolution of the U.S. Peering Ecosystem

Internet Region

Evolution of the U.S. Peering Ecosystem

Content ProvidersContent Providers

Tier 1 ISPsTier 1 ISPs

Tier 2 ISPsTier 2 ISPs

T T

T NetSaavyCPNetSaavyCP

CableCosCableCosCDNsCDNs

Internet Region

Research Questions•How does Hollywood distribute video?

•80% of all Internet Traffic is Video, 40% is youTube --> Video Internet Ecosystem

•How are Hollywood and the Video Internet Ecosystems

•Parallel, Intersecting

•Clashing, Evolving

•What are their Trajectories & Predictions

Video Internet

What is the Hollywood System?

What is the Video Internet System?

Modeling The Hollywood Ecosystem

Hollywood Ecosystem meets

Video Internet Ecosystem

Parallel, Intersecting, Clashing, Evolving, Innovating

Innovation Over The Top

SkypeTV

InnovatInnovationion

Top 8 Reasons to rip and distribute

via P2P1.They are Fans

2.Tit for tat

3.Commercials: 16min, Content: 44min

4.Community Recognition

5.Movie Studios are enemies

6.Not available in country in timely basis

7.Don’t recognize Intellectual Property

8.Product Mix wrong: Portable Digital Format, Reasonable Time, no commercials, Reasonable Price

P2P LawsuitsProducts Adjusted

Release Window ShortenedSimultaneous Int’l ReleasesDigital Download - Rent/BuyCommercial-sponsored TV:

Hulu5M SkypeTV 2010

VideoConf

InnovatInnovationion

Hollywood System Morphs...

P2P LawsuitsProducts Adjusted

Release Window ShortenedSimultaneous Int’l ReleasesDigital Download - Rent/BuyCommercial-sponsored TV:

Hulu5M SkypeTV 2010

VideoConf

netnetNeutrNeutralityality

InnovatInnovationion

P2P LawsuitsProducts Adjusted

Release Window ShortenedSimultaneous Int’l ReleasesDigital Download - Rent/BuyCommercial-sponsored TV:

Hulu5M SkypeTV 2010

VideoConf

netnetNeutrNeutralityality

InnovatInnovationion

EquipMkt

SportingEvents

Mini Revolutions activated the Video

Internet•Cheap Cameras and editing SW

•Free upload and distribution (youTube)

•Dropping transit/CDN prices

•Broadband to the eyeballs

•Home wifi

•over the top appliances in the home

Transit Prices

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$/Mbps $1,200 800 675 400 200 $120 90 75 50 25 $12 $9 $7 $4.50 $2.50 $1.75 $1.20

1998$1200/Mbps

2004$120/Mbps

2008$12/Mbps 2014 (Projection)

$1.20/Mbps

Trajectories

SkypeTV

•2010 5M Skype-enabled TVs @1Mbps

•Killer App?

•Mother’s day - best effort good enough?

•What does it mean when your skype TV is hacked - unprecedented world access to your living room

•Will this send Cisco TelePresence to high-end market, like Hollywood driven to only making blockbuster movies?

Portable TV

• iTablet (laptop sized video iPhone) at lunch with you

•eavesdrops, brings up referenced content

•take your TV(display) & channels w/you

Thoughts• If you were to build from scratch the

Video Internet (that also supports other stuff), would it look like what we have today?

•Will all video (premium,etc) be over the Internet, shiftable to where you happen to be? Delivered on your TV (aka multi-purpose display device)?

• Is the commodity network capable of handling the BW and tighter tolerances required for real-time video?

Debates we should be having here

• In 10 years, will all video be distributed over the Internet?

•Will the “Wisdom of Crowds” determine what is popular and what will be programmed on channels?

•Will your kids say “Dad, why did you allow other people to decide what you what you were going to watch, and when?”

• Is it time to talk again about (compensated) QoS across the net?

P2P LawsuitsProducts Adjusted

Release Window ShortenedSimultaneous Int’l ReleasesDigital Download - Rent/BuyCommercial-sponsored TV:

Hulu5M SkypeTV 2010

VideoConf

netnetNeutrNeutralityality

InnovatInnovationion

EquipMkt