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The Energy Challenge; Is sustainabilty within sight. TCM. Dr. Nils A. Røkke Director Climate Change Technologies SINTEF CESAER, Trondheim15 October 2010. SWAY. REC. SINTEF and NTNU - “Symbiosis at work”. Number of employees: 2175 Annual turnover (2009): 340 Million € - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Technology for a better society
The Energy Challenge; Is sustainabilty within sight
Dr. Nils A. RøkkeDirector Climate Change Technologies SINTEF
CESAER, Trondheim15 October 2010
REC SWAY
TCM
Technology for a better society
SINTEF and NTNU - “Symbiosis at work”
Number of employees: 2175
Annual turnover (2009): 340 Million €
Main funding is from industrial contract research, 7% basic public funding
A technological cluster with education, basic & applied research, innovations and business
developments- covering 3600 of the society
SINTEF - Scandinavia’s largest R&DInstitute
Founded 1950 by NTNU as a Foundation- non-profit
Technology for a better society
3
Centres of Environmental Friendly Energy (CEER) in SINTEF and NTNU
BIGCCS – Int’ CCS R&D Centre
CenBio
NOWITECH
The Norwegian CE for Solar Cell Technology
• An R&D effort of million 200€ over 8 yrs
• International co-operation
• Unique R&D infrastructure development
• Approx 110 Phd students and Post doc’s
Technology for a better society
The energy challenge and the sustainabilty criterion
• The Brundtland report defined sustainable development as – "meet present needs without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their needs“
Or even simpler (Gillman)– “do onto future generations as you would have them do
onto you.“
• For Energy this means:– Meeting the demand for energy at present and not hamper the
possibility to do so for future generations taking care of• Economy• Society • Environment
Technology for a better society
How are we doing today viz sustainabilty• Do we meet the present needs, and the future?, electricity
case
IEA WEO2009
Technology for a better society
Sustainable energy mix?
Technology for a better society
Sustainable energy mix?
WEO 2008
NO!
15%5%80%
Technology for a better society
Main unsustainability issues • We do not meet the energy demands of today, there is a huge poverty issue
• The energy we use is based on unsustainable sources, clearly fossil fuels will run dry in the medium to long term
• The impact of energy conversion on the environment is unsustainable, short term remedies can be put in place but we are even changing our global framework- the atmosphere
• There is as such an urgent need to take actions to deliver the planet to the next generation “as we would have liked them to deliver it to us”
Reuters
Technology for a better society9
An uncomfortable curve!
IEA WEO2009
Technology for a better society
10
International Energy Agency – suggesting a low carbon diet
IEA ETP2010
Reduction needed to keep global warming with 2-3 degrees
Technology for a better society
Let’s look at the bright side of life
• Can we at least recover some of the sustainability lost and mitigate?
• What does it take to move in this direction?
• No shortage of power
Energy Source Max Power (TW) % of Total Solar
Total Surface solar 85000 100
Desert solar 7650 9
Ocean thermal 100 0,12
Wind 72 0,08
Geothermal 44 0,05
River hydropower 7 0,008
Biomass 7 0,008
Open ocean wave 7 0,008
Tidal wave 4 0,003
Coastal wave 3 0,003 Abbot, 2010
Technology for a better society
A shift from fossil to environmental friendly energy needed
Observations:
Less demand in 2050 than 2007 for fossil fuels
Fuel switching plays a role
Presumes technology development
ETP2010
Technology for a better society
Power production, facilitating the electric society
Observations:
Mix dependent on strategic decisions• nuclear?• use of gas
Main RES contributors• Solar • Wind• Hydro
ETP2010
Technology for a better society
Power production, facilitating the electric society
Observations:
Massive deployment needed
No silver bullet
Rate today is minute
ETP2010
Technology for a better society
Technology Road Maps – Wind power
Observations:
12% of GEP in 2050
Offshore wind power ties in around 2020
ETP2010
Technology for a better society
Technology Road Maps – Cars
Observations:
Gradual feed in of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, FEV and H2 powered cars
Transport difficult to transform, biofuels have little role, use for trucks and air transport
ETP2010
Technology for a better society
Schematic diagram of possible CCS systems
SRCCS Figure TS-1
X
Technology for a better society18
CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)
”Key Message: CCS is not just about cleaner coal: a number of sectors will need to develop CCS to achieve the BLUE Map scenario’s emission targets”
IEA CCS Roadmap
Technology for a better society
Technology Road Maps – SMART GRIDS - 2050
Observations:
Backbone for facilitating the electric society
ETP2010
Technology for a better society
Good news – it’s a profitable route!
Observations:
Efficiency gains means less energy costs
Less demand for key energy carriers stabilises prices
Hydrocarbons can be used for other purposes
ETP2010
Investment is approx 35% of 2010 US budget spending for 40 years
Technology for a better society
Sustainable- other benefits!
Observations:
Most actions include other benefits as well
ETP2010
Technology for a better society
There are positive movements though- we need to grow them
Technology for a better society
Is sustainabilty within sight?• We need to invest to get onto a more sustainable path,
these are better investments than banksavings or bonds• More advanced technologies are needed, we must invest
much more into education, R&D and deployment support for energy technologies.
• Sustained use of fossil fuels is non-sustainable, any technologies relying on continued use of fossil fuels are bridging technologies
• They are however urgently needed as the transplantation of the spine in our energy system must be of a fast transformational rather than revolutionary nature.
• Energy is abundant on our planet- the long term sustainable solution is solar power albeit we may have an issue with that in Trondheim
• The question is if we will act fast enough to hand over the planet to next generations in a presentable condition, let’s work together!