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The Energy Problem

The untold Story of the Future

‘Meeting the needs of the Present without compromising the needs of future generations to meet their needs’

By John Clarkson BA(Hons) MSc

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The Planet Earth

“A thin film of life on an solitary lump of rock and metal”

Carl Sagan (Cosmologist)

If the Earth was the size of an apple the skin of the apple would represent the entire known life in the universe.

This skin or film of life is what we call the Biosphere.

Humans though mistreat the biosphere – their life support system. They do this using the ‘take, make and throw away system of economic production’.

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PROCESS THEM

MORE TRANSPORT

BUY HERE

ADVERTISE & SELL

CONSUMER DEMAND – millions of them!

WASTE

BURN THE WASTE

This forces people into slums in cities for cheap labour. Some are even involved in recycling hazardous waste!

TAKE THE RESOURCES – WHAT RESOURCES?

TAK E THE RESOURCES

Native Tribes are eradicated Vast amounts of energy are used to harvest, ship, manufacture, transport and package goods. This pollutes the global and local environment, entering the human food, air and water supplies.

Dumping pollutes land and water courses

Dioxins are the most powerful toxin known to man. Many of them will enter our environment during burning or recycling processes!

SHIP THEM VAST DISTANCES

SHIP THE WASTE FOR RECYCLING

Our Present Means of Production – take, make and throw away!

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The Goal of Humanity

Type I — a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available on a single a single planet like Planet Earth 4 ×1012 W

We are a Type 0.7 civilization on this scale.

Type II — a civilization that is able to harness all of the power available from a single star like our Sun, approximately 3.86 ×1026 W

To achieve Type II we need to get to Type I. That is our biggest problem.

The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring an advanced civilization's level of technological advancement.

Michio Kaku, the American cosmologist has speculated that the goal of humanity is to attain a Type I & later II civilization on the Kardashev Scale

Scientific notation 10 2 is 10 x10 103 is 10 x 10 x 10 and so on…

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How can we achieve this?

What can humans do to achieve a Type I civilization? That is, to utilise cleanly and efficiently all the available energy the planet has to offer.

• Efficient energy use – use it purposefully – don’t waste it• Promote clean energy use e.g. renewable energy• Become politically active – no good doing your bit if no-one else is!

Why haven’t I mentioned Climate Change yet?

Because climate change is a geological timescale problem. For a start excess carbon dioxide takes 60 years to have an impact on the global temperature. The effects last 1000 years or more. Statistics certainly mean climate change is a threat, but it is not as much a threat as losing our economically available oil supply without finding suitable, economic and scalable substitutes

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What barriers are there to achieving a Type I civilization?

Name some barriers that might cause humans to never obtain a Type I civilization?

• Population Growth – more people less resources• Wars - 1/10 chance of nuclear war in the next 100 years• Climate Change• The loss of our primary fuel: oil – leading to economic stagnation and decline

Politicians are obsessed with growth. A group of politicians were asked:

‘What population growth rate (average % per year) for your county would be good over the next 70 years?’

On average their answer was 4% per year!

Steady growth rate for 70 years, the Growth Factor (F) for any given growth rate is approximately F = 2G

Growth Rate per year Growth Factor over 70 yrs

0.5% 1.4

1% 2

2% 4

3% 8

4% 16

5% 32

6% 64

7% 128

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The Exponential Problem

A bottle is filled with energy used by bacteria to grow. The bacteria double in number every minute, using up the energy in the bottle.

We know that it takes 1 hour for them to exhaust the finite supply of energy in the process. If we start the growth at 11.00 am, what time will it be when the bacteria have HALF the bottle still to consume?

Time Energy Proportion Left % of bottle

11.54 am 63/64 = 98%11.55 am 31/32 = 97%11.56 am 15/16 = 94%11.57 am 7/8 = 88%11.58 am 3/4 = 75%11.59 am 1/2 = 50%12.00 pm 0 = 0%

At 11.59, with just a minute to go!

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1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 580

20

40

60

80

100

120If Bacteria could think, when would they notice that there’s a problem?

% of the Bottle

Minutes

Percentage of the Bottle energy left

Here when they have 80% left?

Or here when they’ve got just 20% left?

The change in the amount of energy available for 55 minutes is imperceptible on this graph, until a rapid decline in its final few minutes.

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An explorer bacteria at great expense leaves the bottle at 11.58 am and discovers 3 new bottles.

“That should help us survive much longer!” says the explorer.

Assuming that the whole of the bacteria can access the other bottles, how long will the energy last if the bacteria continue to double in size every minute?

At 12.00 the first bottle is empty of energy.

At 12.01 the 1st and 2nd bottles are empty of energy.

At 12.02 all four bottles are empty of energy.

We’ve struck it rich!

Without energy what will happen to our colonies of hungry

bacteria?

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1 2 3 4 5 6 70

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Expiration of Energy Time at given consumption rate rises

CoalOilGas

Average Rate of Consumption per year %

Number of Yearstill expiration

This uses the formula T = 1/k ln(kR/r + 1) Figures are from BP Energy Statistics https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=rnycFZ487zRa0c5FcugB3RA#gid=4.

It should be noted that this calculation is a first order estimate of what happens as consumption of a finite resource occurs. It is not a prediction of the future. This estimate aids understanding of the issues.

Without diesel oil w

hat will happen to our colonies of hungry

humans?

Look at the graph below. What happens as we increase our fossil fuel consumption to how long these fuels last? (or Expiration of Energy Time)

The Exponential Problem applied to Human Consumption of Fossil Fuels

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It took $1 to obtain $100 of oil in 1900, now $1.00 obtains just over a $1.00 of oil

Energy Return on Investment of Energy

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Oil is used to harvest:-

GasCoalNuclear FuelsGlobal & local Transport

It helps us grow80% of global food

Our global population rose massively in the Age of Oil due to the ability to make and transport medicines globally.

Post Oil – What awaits future generations?

Population

Return to the Caveman?

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Surely scientists and engineers will solve the energy problem?

A graph of Innovations since 1455. New inventions are declining as scientific knowledge peaks.

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Why is Oil so hard to replace?

MJ/kg

Energy Content of Fuels

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Why not make hydrogen from electrolysis?

We could make hydrogen from a process called electrolysis, but no-one has the financial ability to turn all their nuclear power stations over to hydrogen production.

In any case the exponential growth of human demand would make this eventually unsustainable. No-one is planning to do this anywhere on Earth!

Oil Consumption

Nuclear power consumption - more or less reflects capability

Multiples of the existing reactor production needed to replace 50% of

current oil consumption(Million tonnes)

(in Million tonnes of oil equivalent)(rounded) (rounded)

UNITED KINGDOM 79 25 1.6 x

CANADA 83 19 2 x

BRAZIL 83 1 41 x

INDIA 95 3 14.1 x

FRANCE 96 102 0.5 x

GERMANY 132 44 1.5 x

RSF + ex USSR 182 53 1.7 x

CHINA 200 4 25 x

USA 882 198 2 x

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What about Fusion Power?

Scientists have worked on fusion for 50 years without success.

Here’s what they have to say and their predictions:

William Parkins, a physicist who worked on the Manhattan Project has stated:

“The history of this dream is as discouraging as it is expensive.”

It is predicted by Miklos Porkolab, director of the Plasma Fusion Center at MIT in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that functioning power-producing fusion reactor is probably 50 years away. That’s around 2060, possibly 20 to 30 years too late to have an impact on the end of the age of oil.

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What if we did find a solution?

Imagine a world with clean energy that was infinite in its supply.

What would humans do with it?

Virtually every invention that has ever been made has had a devastating impact on other humans or the environment.

Think of those forests yet untouched by human hands, and wonder what would loggers do with inexpensive clean fuel?

Think, in this battered planetary globeWhose Portals are alternate Night and Day, How Empire after Empire with its Pomp Abode its destined Hour, and went its way With apologies to Omar Khyaam