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The EU PESETA project: effects of climate change in Europe
Juan Carlos Ciscar, EC, DG JRC, IPTSEuropean Week of Regions and Cities
11 October 2007, Brussels
OutlineOutline
1. About PESETAo Background, Purposeso Approach, Sectors and partnerso The Climate Scenarioso Methodologieso Adaptation
2. Early results (EC Green Paper on Adaptation to Climate Change)
Background
European Council (March 2004) request: analysing costs and benefits of EU post-2012 climate policy
“Winning the battle against climate change” EC Communication (2005)
"Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The way ahead for 2020 and beyond" EC Communication (2007)
Green Paper on Adaptation to climate change impacts (2007)
Main Purposes
Quantitative assessment of the monetary estimates of impacts of climate change in Europe
Potentially useful for policymakers
Based on bottom-up physical assessments
Applying existing methods/studies
Sectors and PartnersSix sectors
Agriculture: U. Politécnica de Madrid, A. Iglesias
Human health: AEA Technology, L. Horrocks/P. Watkiss
River basin flooding: JRC/IES, A. de Roo/L. Feyen
Energy demand: FEDEA, J. M. Labeaga
Coastal systems: FEEM/Southampton U., R. Nicholls
Tourism: U. Maastricht-ICIS, P. Martens/B. Amelung
Climate Scenarios
Data needs: 50 km resolution; daily and monthly
Selection of scenarios 2011-2040 period: A2 IPCC SRES scenario
data from the Rossby Center 2071-2100 period: data from PRUDENCE
A2, B2 IPCC SRES scenarios <cost of inaction> 2 regional climate models, RCMs (HIRHAM, RCA) 2 global circulation models, GCMs (HadCM3, ECHAM4)
Methodologies for Physical Impacts Assessment
Detailed process modelling Agriculture, DSSAT crop model River basin flooding, LISFLOOD hydrological model Coastal systems, DIVA model
Reduced-form exposure-response functions Energy Tourism Human Health
Adaptation measures
Agriculture: farm-level adaptation No constraint on water irrigation No constraints on use of fertilizers
Coastal zones: “hard” adaptation measures Building dikes Beach nourishment
Rest of sectors
Temp, Precipit. A2 Scenario, 2071-2100
Effects in agriculture
A2 scenario
2071-2100
Effects in heat-, and cold-related mortality
Tourism climate index
River discharge
A2 scenario
2071-2100
Adaptation Assessments
Treatment of the cascade of uncertainty in a systematic way: probabilistic approach
Integrate further sectors (water); include other sectors
Dynamic land use scenarios
Possible research needs
http://peseta.jrc.es/
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION