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The European Foresight Monitoring Network
April 2008
Collection of EFMN BriefsPart 1
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The European Foresight Monitoring Network
Collection of EFMN Briefs - Part 1
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This volume was edited by the following members of the EFMN team:
Susanne Giesecke, Austrian Research Centers GmbH – ARC, systems research, Vienna, AustriaPatrick Crehan, CKA – Crehan, Kusano & Associates, Brussels, BelgiumStephan Elkins, Social Scientific Translation and Editing Services, Marburg, Germany
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Futur – The German Research Dialogue ............................................................................................................................ 10
Swedish Technology Foresight 2004 ................................................................................................................................. 13
Milanese SME Internationalization 2012.......................................................................................................................... 16
Anticipating Change for Europe’s Industries 2020 to 2025..........................................................................................20
Danish Technology Foresight 2015 .....................................................................................................................................24
Foresight Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2020 .......................................................................................................................28
Archaeology in Ireland 2020 ............................................................................................................................................... 31
Foresight Embedding in Malta .............................................................................................................................................35
FISTERA – Foresight on Information Society Technologies in the European Research Area 2020 .....................39
Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention 2018............................................................................................................................43
Nordic Hydrogen Energy Foresight 2030 ..........................................................................................................................47
Greek National Technology Foresight 2021 ......................................................................................................................50
Green Technological Foresight on Environmentally Friendly Agriculture 2024 ....................................................... 53
Universities and the City-Region as a ‘Knowledge Capital’ 2008 ..............................................................................56
Production Chains 2016 - The Brazilian Technology Foresight Programme ............................................................ 60
The BMW Region of Ireland – 2025 ................................................................................................................................... 64
Bionic Buildings 2020 – Applying Natures Principles for Intelligent Building....................................................... 68
Dynamo 2004 ..........................................................................................................................................................................72
Transport and Mobility in an Enlarged Europe – 2020 .................................................................................................. 76
The US Hydrogen Roadmap 2030 ...................................................................................................................................... 80
Transition to Sustainable Production Systems – Austria 2020 ................................................................................. 84
Cognitive Systems 2020 ...................................................................................................................................................... 88
UK Foresight on Exploiting the Electro-Magnetic Spectrum – 2020 .......................................................................... 91
Operation FutuRIS – France 2020 ......................................................................................................................................95
The Chemical Industry in Flanders – Towards 2010 ..................................................................................................... 99
The Food Industry in Flanders Towards 2010 ............................................................................................................... 103
AGORA 2020 – Transport, Housing, Urbanism and Risk ............................................................................................107
FORETECH – Bulgarian Technology and Innovation Foresight 2015 ..........................................................................111
Futur Radar 2030Demographic Changes, Challenges and Opportunities for the Rhineland-Palatinate......... 115
East German Cross-Border Regions 2020 ...................................................................................................................... 119
Sensor Technology Foresight in Denmark - 2015 ..........................................................................................................123
Danish Nano-science and Nano-technology for 2025 ..................................................................................................127
Austrian Safety and Security Research 2011 ................................................................................................................. 131
Sustainable Transformation of German Utilities 2025 ................................................................................................135
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Table of Contents
Foreword .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Introduction – EFMN Publication for the first 120 Briefs .........................................................................................................................................8
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Japanese S+T Foresight 2035 .............................................................................................................................................139
Korea 2030 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 143
New Zealand Futurewatch 2025 ........................................................................................................................................147
The Polish Foresight Pilot – Health and Living 2013 .................................................................................................... 151
Turkish S+T Vision 2023 .....................................................................................................................................................155
Converging Technologies Enabling the Information Society ......................................................................................159
Imagineering Ireland: Future Scenarios for 2030 ........................................................................................................ 163
Emerging S+T Priorities in the Triadic Regions ..............................................................................................................167
Youth Foresight Germany 2020 ......................................................................................................................................... 171
Foresight for Mobile Radio Spectrum 2020 .................................................................................................................... 174
UNIDO Technology Foresight Initiative ............................................................................................................................178
Canada Looking Forward S+T 21st Century ....................................................................................................................181
Quebec S+T Development Based on Social Needs ...................................................................................................... 185
2020 Living in a Networked WorldIndividually and Securely ................................................................................... 189
Achieving an Ethical Future for Biomedical R+D ............................................................................................................193
Knowledge Society Foresight .............................................................................................................................................197
The Millennium Project 2050 ............................................................................................................................................ 201
Austrian Tourism 2015 ........................................................................................................................................................ 205
European Manufacturing Visions ManVis 2020 ...........................................................................................................209
Spanish Nuclear Energy Futures 2030 .............................................................................................................................213
‘AGENCE FUTURE’ Futures Conversations around the Globe ....................................................................................... 217
The Region of Lecco Industrial System 2015 ..................................................................................................................221
Greece’s Path to the European Knowledge Society .................................................................................................... 225
The Household Horizon 2012 ............................................................................................................................................ 229
Knowledge Society in Germany 2015 .............................................................................................................................. 233
Rural Ireland 2025 ............................................................................................................................................................... 237
Malta’s Marine Sector 2020 ...............................................................................................................................................241
Technology and Innovation in Romania 2015 ................................................................................................................ 245
South African Benchmark 2020 ....................................................................................................................................... 249
Communication Media Spain 2018 .................................................................................................................................. 253
Insular Regions 2015 ........................................................................................................................................................... 257
The Euro-Latin Foresight Network: SELF-RULE .............................................................................................................261
Children’s TV Malta 2015 ................................................................................................................................................... 265
Dutch Biotech Scenarios 2030 ..........................................................................................................................................269
Madrid 2015 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 273
Biotech Estonia 2020 .......................................................................................................................................................... 277
Technology Foresight Slovenia 2020 .............................................................................................................................. 281
Dutch Hospitality 2020....................................................................................................................................................... 285
Central Macedonia 2018 ....................................................................................................................................................289
Ukrainian STI 2025 .............................................................................................................................................................. 293
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Russian Nanotechnology 2020 ......................................................................................................................................... 297
SCOPE 2015 – Scenarios for EU RTDI Cooperation with Developing Countries ..................................................... 301
Technology for Industry Foresight – Kocaeli 2012 .......................................................................................................305
German Delphi on Corporate Foresight ..........................................................................................................................309
Russian Critical Technologies 2015 ..................................................................................................................................313
The ‘Jordan 2020’ Scenarios Project ................................................................................................................................317
Aufbruch Musik – German Music 2020 .......................................................................................................................... 320
Corporate Foresight in Europe .......................................................................................................................................... 324
Cyprus 2013 .......................................................................................................................................................................... 328
Preventative Healthcare Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania .......................................................................................331
Linz 21 ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 335
The Future of Design............................................................................................................................................................ 339
Ambient Intelligence 2020 ............................................................................................................................................... 343
Summit for the Future 2006 ..............................................................................................................................................346
England’s Regions 2030 ..................................................................................................................................................... 350
Global Technology Revolution 2020 ................................................................................................................................ 354
Government and Corporate Social Responsibility 2020............................................................................................. 358
OPEC Long-Term Strategy .................................................................................................................................................362
Changes in German Production and Demography – the Supporting Role of ICT ................................................. 366
Iris Futures – Foresight in the Brussels Capital Region .............................................................................................. 370
ICT and Robotics in Agriculture and the Related Industries – a European Approach .......................................... 374
User Centered Innovation in Manufacturing ................................................................................................................. 378
Long-term Innovation Priorities for Bashkortostan .....................................................................................................382
Technology and Innovation in Flanders ......................................................................................................................... 386
Luxembourg First National Technology Foresight ........................................................................................................390
Potential for Biomimetics in Austria ...............................................................................................................................394
Corporate Foresight in Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises ................................................................................... 397
Creative System Disruption: Towards a Research Strategy Beyond Lisbon ........................................................... 401
Public Service 2022 in Ireland ......................................................................................................................................... 404
Agricultural Futures in England and Wales and Implications for the Environment ..............................................407
Future Fuel Technology for APEC Regions ....................................................................................................................... 411
City 2030 – Shaping the City of the Future Guiding Principles, Scenarios and Concepts .................................. 414
Key Technologies for France 2010 .................................................................................................................................... 418
The Future of the Dutch Natural and Built Environment ............................................................................................. 422
Norway’s OG21 – Oil and Gas in the 21st Century .......................................................................................................426
Regional Foresight Exercise for the Greek Region of Epirus ...................................................................................... 429
Horizons 2020 – Mapping the Future of Society, Economy & Government ........................................................... 433
Démarche Prospective Transport 2050 – For a Better French Transport Policy .................................................... 437
FAZIT – The Future of ICT in Baden-Württemberg ........................................................................................................ 441
The Singularity Scenario ....................................................................................................................................................445
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SMART Perspectives of European Materials Research ...............................................................................................449
Regional Infrastructure Foresight .................................................................................................................................... 453
England’s Rural Futures Project: Scenario Creation & Backcasting ........................................................................ 457
Austria’s Futures: Past Perspectives and Present Expectations .............................................................................. 461
Evaluating Foresight – The Colombian Case..................................................................................................................465
Opportunities in Innovation for the Dutch Defence Industry ....................................................................................469
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Index of Authors ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 474
Index of Countries, Regions and Cities .................................................................................................................................................................... 476
Index of Subjects .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 478
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The European Foresight Monitoring Network
Regional Infrastructure ForesightAuthors: Eckhard Störmer, [email protected]; Annette Ruef, [email protected]; Bernhard Truffer, [email protected]
Sponsors: Swiss National Science Foundation - National Research Programme NRP 54: Sustainable Development of the Built Environment
Type: Single issue: regional sanitation systems; development of strategic planning methodology
Organizer: Eawag, The Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Sciences and Technologies; Empa, Material Science and Technology; Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research; University of Berne; Swiss Federal Institute Zurich
Duration: 7/2005-6/2008 Budget: € 215 700 Time Horizon:2030+ (25 years) Date of Brief:Sept. 2007
Purpose
“Regional Infrastructure Foresight” enables municipalities, engineers and decision makers in regional sanitation systems to develop a mid- to long-term strategy for a sustainable sanitation infrastructure. Identification of uncertainties and future challenges of the regional infrastructure’s context is carried out in a participatory scenario process. A broad range of possible integrated solutions for the sanitation system is evaluated from different stakeholders’ views. This approach allows handling of uncertainties of frameworks, and of complexity of the system to find more adaptive system configurations for a sustainable sanitation system.
Handling Uncertainties & Enabling Systems Change
Water infrastructures are characterized by a stable socio-technical system: Inert long-living technologies and corresponding expert systems of planners, technology suppliers and regulators exhibit strong path dependencies. The system tends to perpetuate predominant paradigms and thus to risk missing out on more sustainable alternatives. New incremental or more radical technologies are on the market or in development but have only little chances to grow out of niche markets.
Sanitation infrastructure in industrialized countries was primarily erected in the 1960ies to 70ies. Nowadays many elements of the sanitation system reach the end of their lifespan and solutions for re-investments have to be found. The solutions have to face new challenges like increasing variability of wastewater streams, micro pollutants, stronger regulation etc.
As an answer to enormously increasing resource use and rising burdens on environment and human health, the Swiss National Science Foundation research program «sustainable development of the built environment» (NRP 54) is developing scientific principles that will help to bring about a more sustainable development in Switzerland’s towns and cities, as well as its infrastructures.
Within this program, the research team of Eawag Cirus developed a foresight and strategic planning approach,
which allows to integrate uncertainties and to find innovative solutions for a more sustainable sanitation system. The method is tested in three case studies in different Swiss regions. The project is carried out jointly with national and regional water management agencies, the national water pollution control association and engineering consultants that see the need for a critical reflection of established systems.
Focus on Pragmatic Planning Tools
The “Regional Infrastructure Foresight” – RIF - methodology is developed to support strategic decision making for sustainable infrastructure planning. The foresight approach shall empower local and regional authorities and sanitation professionals to decide on mid- to long-term strategies for infrastructure development and to manage potentially sustainable innovations in a strategic way. RIF therefore combines elements of methods for regional governance, strategic planning and technology assessment.
The methodology itself is the result of the project. It provides a framework for strategic planning in the sanitation sector with the potential to transfer the approach to sectors with similar characteristics. Main purposes of the methodology are:
Identifying particularly uncertain future challenges of the •regional sanitation system;Assessing a broad range of solutions including radical •alternatives to think off the beaten tracks. In particular, conventional system boundaries - such as the size of the catchment area or the range of the organization’s infrastructure tasks -shall be questioned;Mapping out the goals and targets of the public task •
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sanitation to integrate multifaceted expectations of different stakeholders. A broad range of perspectives and value positions shall be involved in mobilizing broader resources of knowledge stocks and in enhancing the acceptance of innovative options;Developing a strategic plan in terms of a recommendation •of principal long-term pathways for a sustainability oriented regional sanitation system.
Participatory Foresight Approach
According to figure 1 structural characteristics of the RIF methodology are
Three levels of intensity in participation: •Core team of about 4 local decision makers, •which analyze the relevant steps and prepare the stakeholder workshops15 to 25 stakeholder representatives collaborating •in the identification of future scenarios and the evaluation of options actual decision makers in the region reflect the •gathered results and decide about the next steps in the planning process
Reflexivity with regard to the object of analysis and its •potential extensions: Definition of time scale and regional application area of the planning procedure. Specification of relevant stakeholder groups in the region with regard to the conventional planning and decision processes in the regions concerned.Open and participatory approach to decision making: •Decision makers have to open their decision making processes to more public discourse and involve diverging inputs form different stakeholders. The result of the planning shall serve as a starting point for more detailed planning and decision processes.
Based on these structural characteristics, a foresight process has been carried out with the following phases
Preparatory phase:• analysis of situation, delimitation of object of analysis, identification of key stakeholders, establishment of performance contract with research teamAnalytical phase:• Identification of relevant context conditions and options, elaboration of value tree and sustainability visions in the region. This step is worked out in the core team and in the context of a two-day stakeholder workshop.Evaluative phase:• Assessing the strategic options against the background of the context scenarios and the values weighted by the preferences of different stakeholder groups. This leads to specific rankings of stakeholder groups and identification of conflict lines – one-day stakeholder workshop. Implementation phase:• Presenting the results to the decisions bodies, determining the application context of the identified alternatives, resolving an agenda for a more detailed planning process.
Analytical phase Evaluative phase Implementation phaseRIF-WS1
RIF-WS2
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How do possible futures look like?
How can we deal with future challenges?
Strategic plan
RIF TEAM CORE TEAM STAKEHOLDER
Figure 1: Process scheme of RIF
Scenarios, Goals and Options
In the following, the main generic results of the case studies are presented. These are context scenarios of regional development, value trees, and technical and organizational constructions of options.
From ‘Blooming Growth’ to ‘Catastrophe’
Regionally specific context scenarios were built in the stakeholder workshops. The participants identified regionally relevant factors. Major factors and drivers of the scenarios are mainly economic and societal developments, which influence settlement structures, consumer and production patterns, as well as regulatory questions of wastewater pollution control. Two main dimensions of problem pressure and problem solving capacity describe a problem-oriented categorization of the scenarios developed in the case studies. Problem pressure is described by the requirements for the sanitation system, such as the variability of wastewater streams, and regulatory and societal demands for the system. Problem solving capacities for the public task sanitation depend on the economic capacity of the region and on the fragmentation of the community structure of the region.
Three generic types of context scenarios, which result from an analysis of the specific participatory built scenarios in the case studies, showed possible but uncertain developments. Main drivers were economic growth and the amount of pressure on the sanitation system:
“Region light” is a shrinking region with decreasing •demands on the sanitation system. The key challenge is a low ability to pay for infrastructure services. Problem solving capacity is low, but problem pressure is also low. A maintenance and operation of infrastructure on a moderate level is usually possible.“Blooming growth” is a situation where quality of life is •an important driver for the attractiveness of the region.
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The inhabitants request high environmental standards. High problem pressure with high problem solving capacity lead to a situation where efficient and effective infrastructure services can be established and operated.“Strong globalization” is a picture of a region, which •is driven by decisions of global headquarters, which open and close their production sites on short-term request of the international market. With this situation unemployment rates go up and economic situation is more or less precarious. It is nearly infeasible to plan the variability of wastewater streams. Problem pressure is high and problem-solving capacity is quite low. This situation can lead to a “catastrophe” where infrastructure cannot be maintained any more.
In addition, possible impacts of climate change are considered in one or several scenarios. In the case studies the scenarios were regionally specified and vary from these generic types.
Value tree of sustainable sanitation
The sanitation system as a public task of water pollution control and safeguarding of hygienic standards follow a range of goals within the whole range of sustainability pillars:
Ecological aspects are water pollution control, minimizing •resource use and recycling of resources, risk prevention.Social aspects are health promotion, accessibility to the •service, equitable and affordable cost of the services, and intergenerational equity.Economic aspects are efficiency and effectiveness, •cost transparency and adaptability and openness for innovation.Governance aspects are political participation and •legitimacy, controllability, and ability for coordination.
These goals vary in their relevance in different context scenarios; which can be critical or supportive of meeting the challenges of the scenario worlds. The goals are assessed with different priorities and values from different stakeholder groups. This makes conflicts about different demands on the sanitation system transparent and helps to anticipate possible sustainability deficits.
Technical and organizational options
Main trends in sanitation systems and technologies in general are on the one hand heavy increase in WWTP sizes as an intensification of today’s dominant design. On the other hand, decentralized on-site WWTP improve their technologies and therefore their reliability and user friendliness with a decrease in costs. Beside these incremental to radical technological innovations, other elements of the sanitation system have to be taken into account for an integrated view.
In the RIF process, strategic options are developed in the core team by analyzing the major technological and organizational elements that might form a future sanitation infrastructure.
A few basic parameters define the configuration of a sanitation system and offer different possibilities for change according to the regional situation. These are:
degree of centralization within the catchment area •(e.g. central plant, on-site preliminary purification, decentralized WWT),technology of sewerage (e.g. combined or separated •sewer system),sludge treatment (e.g. drying, digestion, gas production),•thematic focus of infrastructure services (e.g. operating •only WWTP, or including sewerage, drinking water system, waste management),organizational form (e.g. association, public firm, private •firm in public ownership, privatization), allocation of fees (e.g. uniform fees, polluter pays •principle).
Basic strategic options can be derived by combining these parameters into coherent system configurations. The options developed in the case studies represent corner stones of a continuum of options.
In the stakeholder workshop tapered options close to the edges of the continua are assessed to get clear differentiations and trade-offs between the options. Within this field various sub-variants are possible. For the final recommendations, the basic options are enhanced to coherent combinations of their sustainable elements to new options.
Sustainability assessment of strategic options
With the assessment of the given options by different stakeholder groups in different scenario contexts a broad field of arguments pro and contra the options is delivered. Different preferences of options between stakeholder groups in one scenario world show potential dissent and conflict lines. This procedure simulates a virtual political decision, and opportunities and threats for the sustainability of their implementation are made obvious. The comparison between the assessments of options in different scenarios provides the framework conditions under which options are more or less appropriate. It also gives advice to sanitation professionals, which context developments have to be under control in a kind of trend monitoring to use early signals for the fine-tuning of strategic plans. These results allow delivering a detailed overview of strategic options and suitable sub-variants, considering uncertainties of context development, technological innovations and organizational possibilities.
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Regional Infrastructure Foresight as a New Governance ApproachInfrastructures typically have a long lifetime. They are usually not flexibly adaptable but have to be appropriate over the whole time span of 25 years in the case of WWTPs. To find long-term fitting solutions, planning faces high requirements. However, conventional sanitation planning approaches contain deficits: They do not deal with uncertainties of future developments of framework conditions in a transparent and comprehensible way. For several reasons they are usually not open for innovative technologies of system configurations. With the RIF methodology, we propose a different kind of planning which comprises uncertainties and opens the discussion on a broad range of integrated sanitation system solutions. Moreover, the highly participative methodology can be seen as a new governance approach to infrastructure management.
Participation for visioning and learning
The scope for action of infrastructures in general, and sanitation system in particular, get more dynamic and are confronted with growing uncertainties due to globalization, liberalizations in infrastructure markets and technological innovations. Foresight helps to think ahead to be prepared for new challenges and to integrate adaptability and flexibility of solution from the beginning.
The RIF method uses a participatory development of context scenarios and evaluation of options for two reasons: to integrate tacit knowledge of different groups on possible future developments, to build awareness of the range of possible futures with their variety of relevant challenges, and to allow a critical reflection of the opportunities and threats of conventional and innovative solutions.
The intense work of the core team of local decision makers in the sanitation system opens a learning process on strategic long-term planning. The assessment process that is usually carried out in a black box by planning engineers is made transparent and traceable. The stakeholder discussions simulate political decisions and deliver argumentations for the real policy process. In the RIF procedure, the participating stakeholders are multipliers for the favoured solution.
Dissemination of strategic infrastructure planning
With the participation of the official from the regulatory body of the Swiss canton - i.e. federal state - lessons form one exercise can be transferred to other organizations in the same canton. It could become a core activity of the
cantonal office to support this kind of strategic planning processes in the different regions and to support synergies between the different processes. If carried out in different cantons this may ultimately create a background for national organizations and federal offices to discuss and implement radically new technologies in sanitation. A coordinate set of RIF procedures could now create momentum for reforming the whole sector.
Key requirement and limitations of the RIF approach
To carry out a RIF procedure, open-minded participants are needed especially in the core team. Core team members have to be part of the decision-making bodies. They have to be prepared to reflect today’s system with its goals, habits and standards. Additionally they need a basic ability for strategic thinking.
Obstacles to favour radical system changing innovations are high, even in this open process. Uncertainties of their feasibility in area-wide application and trust in their reliability are too high to be accepted today. In contrast to conventional planning processes however, radical options such as decentralized WWTPs are discussed and recommended for use in pilot cases and niche markets.
A RIF procedure delivers a recommendation for a strategic orientation of the regional infrastructure system. This provides the base for policy making in the public sanitation boards. Technical planning with feasibility studies can then be undertaken according to the results of the RIF process.
The RIF methodology thus offers a new governance approach to sustainable infrastructure planning at the regional level.
Sources and ReferencesA handbook on the method will be published in 2008: www.nfp54.ch; www.cirus.ch
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