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The Family and Delinquency. Themes in the Course. Drugs: Marijuana is less dangerous than alcohol and tobacco Prisons getting more money than education Unemployment rate for youth is rising and so is the crime rate Principle of unintended consequences - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Llad Phillips 1
The Family and DelinquencyThe Family and Delinquency
Llad Phillips 2
Themes in the CourseThemes in the Course Drugs: Marijuana is less dangerous than alcohol
and tobacco Prisons getting more money than education Unemployment rate for youth is rising and so is
the crime rate Principle of unintended consequences
Abandon deterrence for detentio: get the gulag GI Bill for WWII warriors: destroy the black family
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NewsNews
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5 Most Addictive: Heroin, Cocaine, Amphetamine, Alcohol, Nicotine: Newsweek5 Most Addictive: Heroin, Cocaine, Amphetamine, Alcohol, Nicotine: Newsweek
Graph Source:Lancet
Pot
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Recovery/RehabilitationRecovery/Rehabilitation
Adult population
Sober
Toxic 13 % of Adult Population
In Need of Treatment,
Drug & Alcohol Addiction, NJ 2003
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Toxic
Transition ModelTransition Model
Sober
Toxic Sober
Toxic
Sober
Recovery rate
Recidivism rate
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Transition Model-2Transition Model-2
Ptoxic (t=1) PSober (t=1)
Ptoxic (t=2) PSober (t=2
Ptoxic = 0.80 Psober = 0.20
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Transition Model-3Transition Model-3Probability of Being Sober Given the Probabity of Recidivism (Relapse) Assuming a Probability of Recovery of
20%
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Probability of Recidivism
Pro
bab
ility
of
Bei
ng
So
ber
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NewsNews
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Pew Center on the StatesPew Center on the States
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Crime rates Beginning to RiseCrime rates Beginning to Rise
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Unemployment Rates and Participation Rates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Ra
te
Males 16-19
Male&Female Participation Rate 16-19
16-19 Year olds16-19 Year olds
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Lauren SpectorLauren Spector
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The Family and DelinquencyThe Family and Delinquency
What is the role of the family in causing or What is the role of the family in causing or preventing delinquency?preventing delinquency?
How important is the family in considering How important is the family in considering possible causes of delinquency?possible causes of delinquency?
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The Importance of CausalityThe Importance of Causality
A theme in this courseA theme in this course
Crime Generation
Crime Control
OffenseRate PerCapita
ExpectedCost ofPunishment
Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
Causes ?!!
(detention,deterrence)
Expenditures
Weak Link
“The Driving Force”
Reference: Lecture Six
Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and JusticeReference: Lecture Four
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Expenditures per Capita
Offenses Per Capita
Crime Control Technology
South Dakota North Dakota
0.025 Index crimesper capita
$100
Total cost = expenditures per capita
Total cost = damages to victims
0.050
Total cost = $200 per capita = damages to victims = loss rate*0.05so loss rate = $4,000 per Index Crime in South Dakota
$200
$00
High loss rate state
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CJS Expenditure Per FBI Index Offense VS. Median Income, 2005
Haw aii
New JerseyWyoming
New York
y = 0.3686x - 2170.8
R2 = 0.2868
$0.00
$5,000.00
$10,000.00
$15,000.00
$20,000.00
$25,000.00
$30,000.00
$35,000.00
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
State Median Income, 2005
CJS
$ P
er O
ffen
se
CJS $ Per FBI Index Offense Vs. IncomeCJS $ Per FBI Index Offense Vs. Income
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California Index Expenses and Criminal Justice System .Expenditures, Both Per Capita, 1967-68 to 1997-98 .
1997-98
1980-81
1967-68
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025 0.03 0.035 0.04 0.045
CA Index Offenses Per Capita
1992 $
Per
Capita
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Family
Education System
Community
Social Institutions Shaping Youth
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“The Rotten Kid Theorem”“The Rotten Kid Theorem”
Reference: Jack Hirshleifer, “The Reference: Jack Hirshleifer, “The Expanding Domain of Economics”Expanding Domain of Economics” Figure 1Figure 1
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Daughter’sIncome
Father’s Income
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Daughter’sIncome, YD
Father’s Income, YF
Daughter’s Selfish Preferences: UD = UD(YD)
Good
Better
Best
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Daughter’sIncome
Father’s Income
Family Joint Income Opportunities WhenBoth the Child and Parent Agree
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R
Short-sighted selfishdaughter prefers point R
Daughter’s Income
Father’s Income
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Daughter’sIncome
Father’s Income
Family Income = Daughter’sIncome + Father’s Income
Father’s Income
R
J
Daughter’sIncome
Family Income Is Maximum At Point J
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How Does the Parent Inducethe Selfish Child to Act in the Family Interest?
How Does the Parent Inducethe Selfish Child to Act in the Family Interest?
Did King Lear Have It Right?Did King Lear Have It Right?
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Daughter’sIncome
Father’s Income
Father’s Altruistic Preferences: UF = UF(YD , YF)
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Why Does The Parent Care For The Child?Why Does The Parent Care For The Child? Darwinian (evolutionary) motive: survival Darwinian (evolutionary) motive: survival
of the genesof the genes
Father’s Income
R
J
Daughter’sIncome
A
If the father is sufficientlyaltruistic, then the daughter’senlightened self-interest is to prefer point A, and she can be induced to behave in a cooperative way, allowing pointJ that leads to point A
Father’s Income
R
J
Daughter’sIncome
B
If the father is insufficientlyaltruistic, then the daughterwill prefer point R to point Band, as a result, family incomeand fortunes will be lower
Llad Phillips 37
So, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘RoundSo, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘Round In what kind of environment does love and In what kind of environment does love and
caring flourish?caring flourish? both biological parents are presentboth biological parents are present educated, enlightened self-interesteducated, enlightened self-interest a family with enough time and resources to care a family with enough time and resources to care
for one anotherfor one another
Llad Phillips 38
Trends Affecting FamiliesTrends Affecting Families
Changes in Family StructureChanges in Family Structure
Marriage and Divorce Rates Per 1000 Population, US .
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
50
19
53
19
56
19
59
19
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
Year
Rate
Marriages
Divorces
Source: US Statistical Abstract
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Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
Marriage Rates
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Number of Divorces and Children Affected
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
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Age Specific Divorce Rates, men and Women
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
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Divorce Rates by Duration of Marriage
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
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US Marrige Rates Per 1000 Population, . Unmarried Women 15-44 Years Old
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
Year
Rate
Source: US Statistical Abstract
Median Age at First Marriage, US .
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
Year
Ag
e
Women
Men
Source: US Statistical Abstract
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Llad Phillips 53
US Families Headed By Women in Percent .
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1940 1950 1960 1970 1983
Year
Perc
en
t
White
Black
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
Llad Phillips 55
Post World War II PhenomenonPost World War II Phenomenon
““In 1925, approximately 85 perent of black In 1925, approximately 85 perent of black families living in Harlem were intact, and families living in Harlem were intact, and the teenage mother raising her children the teenage mother raising her children alone was virtually unknown...”alone was virtually unknown...”
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
Llad Phillips 56
July
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
HOMICIDECA HOMICIDEUSA
California
USA
Homicide and Non-negligent Manslaaaughter, Rates Per 100,000
Llad Phillips 58
Homicides Per 100,000: New York City, 1797-1999
y = 7E-05e0.006x
R2 = 0.2826
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
year
rate
Eric MonkkonenEric Monkkonen
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Crime in CAlifornia: Homicide &Violent Total
1
10
100
1000
10000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
Pe
r 1
00
.00
0
Homicide
Violent
Homicide as an index of CrimeHomicide as an index of Crime
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Crime in California: Violent VS Homicide, 1968-2008
y = 68.096x + 85.246
R2 = 0.7126
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Homicides per 100,000
Vio
len
t T
ota
l Pe
r 1
oo
, oo
oAs Homicide Goes, So Goes ViolenceAs Homicide Goes, So Goes Violence
Percentage of Births Occuring Out of Wedlock, . White Women by Age Group, US .
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year
Perc
en
t
15-19
20-24
25-29
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
Percentage of Births Occurring Out of Wedlock, . Black Mothers By Age Group, US
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
Year
Perc
en
t
15-19
20-24
25-29
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
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Birth Rates for Unmarried Women By Age of Mother
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
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Per Cent Low Birth Weight By Age of Mother
Source: Center for Disease Control, CDC
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National Longitudinal Survey of YouthNational Longitudinal Survey of Youth survey of 14-23 year oldssurvey of 14-23 year olds self-report information about contact with the self-report information about contact with the
criminal justice system for -1979criminal justice system for -1979 ever stopped by the policeever stopped by the police ever charged with a crimeever charged with a crime ever convicted of a crimeever convicted of a crime
family incomefamily income family structure when youth was age 14 family structure when youth was age 14
14-23 yearsof age
Report:never stopped
Report: ever stopped28.5%
Report: ever charged17.4%
Report:never charged Report:
neverconvicted
Report:ever convicted10.1%
National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)
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NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14Family Structure Frequency, % % Ever Charged
Father-Mother 69.1 15.0
Mother-No Man 16.0 19.6
Mother-Stepfather 6.4 28.9
Father-Stepmother 1.8 12.4
Father-No Woman 1.3 22.6
Other Strucures 5.4 24.7
4,927 boys and young men, ages 14-23
Source: William Comanor and Llad Phillips, “The Effect of Family Structure on Teen Delinquency”
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NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14NLSY: Family Structure, Age 14Family Structure Frequency, % %, Ever Given
BirthFather-Mother 66.5 3.5
Mother-No Man 18.8 10.6
Mother-Stepfather 6.8 7.1
Father-Stepmother 1.0 6.2
Father-No Woman 0.8 3.8
Other Structures 6.0 9.0
3119 girls and young women, ages 14-19, never married
Source: William Comanor and Llad Phillips, “The Effect of Family Structure on Teen Delinquency”
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Viewpoints About the Family and DelinquencyViewpoints About the Family and Delinquency Travis Hirschi: a weak child-parent bond or Travis Hirschi: a weak child-parent bond or
attachment explains delinquency(1969)attachment explains delinquency(1969) Joseph Rankin: homes with both biological Joseph Rankin: homes with both biological
parents missing explains running away, parents missing explains running away, truancy, and auto theft(1983)truancy, and auto theft(1983)
Sheppard Kellam, M. Ensminger, and R. J. Sheppard Kellam, M. Ensminger, and R. J. Turner: Being raised by a mother alone Turner: Being raised by a mother alone explains delinquency(1977)explains delinquency(1977)
Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
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Themes for this lectureThemes for this lecture
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So, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘RoundSo, Love, Not Greed, Makes the World Go ‘Round In what kind of environment does love and In what kind of environment does love and
caring flourish?caring flourish? both biological parents are presentboth biological parents are present educated, enlightened self-interesteducated, enlightened self-interest a family with enough time and resources to care a family with enough time and resources to care
for one anotherfor one another
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The Importance of Social Institutions
The Importance of Social Institutions
Family: social control; human capital Family: social control; human capital School: social control; human capitalSchool: social control; human capital Religious organizations: moral complianceReligious organizations: moral compliance Community groups and centersCommunity groups and centers
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QuestionsQuestions
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Question: Why are people violent?Question: Why are people violent?
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Before the agricultural societies in Mesopotamia and the Nile Valley, people were hunters and gatherers and shepherds and tended to fear strangers (And fight them) Paul Seabright, The Company of Strangers, A Natural History of Economic Life(2004) Princeton U.After people settled down as farmers they needed social institutions to help them interact with strangers
Markets allowed people to deal productively with strangersLegal systems and governments allowed settlement of disputes
Adam Smith; The Wealth of Nations(1776)“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.”
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THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION
THE UNITED STATES CONSTITUTION
We the People of the United States, in Order We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of AmericaUnited States of America
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What Leads to the Loss of Social Control?
What Leads to the Loss of Social Control?
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Social Control of CitizenrySocial Control of Citizenry
Civil law and authorityCivil law and authority First line of defense: moral compliance and good First line of defense: moral compliance and good
citizenshipcitizenship Second line of defense: deterrence (the threat of Second line of defense: deterrence (the threat of
punishment)punishment) Third line of defense: detentionThird line of defense: detention
Martial law and authorityMartial law and authority Fourth line of defense: National Guard and the ArmyFourth line of defense: National Guard and the Army
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PercentControl
MoralCompliance
Deterrence Detention
Riot
Civil LawMartialLaw
National Guard
SchematicSchematic
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Why Is the Imprisonment Rate So High in the USA?
Why Is the Imprisonment Rate So High in the USA?
0.74 %0.74 %
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The U.S. Incarceration Rate is Higher than for Russia, and South Africa; 7 times Italy and 8 times France
Llad Phillips 83
Is It Because the US Murder Rate Is So High?
Is It Because the US Murder Rate Is So High?
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#24 USA 0.04 per 1000
http://www.nationmaster.com/
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Is It Because the US Crime Rate Is So High?
Is It Because the US Crime Rate Is So High?
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What Are We Afraid Of?What Are We Afraid Of?
Llad Phillips 88
PercentControl
MoralCompliance
Deterrence Detention
Riot
Civil LawMartialLaw
National Guard
0.74% Prison
Llad Phillips 89
We Are In the Third Line of Defense: DetentionWe Are In the Third Line of Defense: Detention Are we close to the edge?Are we close to the edge? Are we in danger of slipping out of civil authority?Are we in danger of slipping out of civil authority?
Instances- 1992: LA riot: worse than the 1965 Watts Instances- 1992: LA riot: worse than the 1965 Watts riotriot
13 dead13 dead 192 injured 192 injured Governor Pete Wilson activated more than 2000 National Governor Pete Wilson activated more than 2000 National
Guardsmen, mostly military police, to secure areas in Los Guardsmen, mostly military police, to secure areas in Los AngelesAngeles
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That’s All FolksThat’s All Folks
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Probability of Ever Being Charged Vs. Family Income .
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
Family Income
Pro
bab
ilit
y
Father Present
Father Absent