THE FORECLOSURE CRISIS

BAY AREA CASE STUDY

2

Overview

Research Focus Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) Bay Area Demographics Foreclosures in Bay Area Areas Needing Assistance Take Aways Geographic Information System (GIS) Skills Data Sources Photo Credits

3

Research Focus

Focus: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)

Case study: San Francisco-Bay Area

Research question: what areas have the greatest need for foreclosure assistance?

4 Note: State of California funding excluded.

NPS invested $7 billion of federal funds to mitigate “the impact of foreclosures through the purchase and rehabilitation of foreclosed, vacant properties in order to create more affordable housing and renew neighborhoods devastated by the economic crisis.”

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NSP Summary

Created by the Housing and Economic Revitalization Act of 2009 (HERA)

Three rounds of NSP funding; two rounds of funds distributed by a formula and one round was a competitive application process

States, counties, cities, and nonprofits use NSP funds to purchase and/or rehabilitate foreclosed, blighted, or vacant properties

Households assisted must be 120% of area median income (AMI) and 25% of the grant must serve households below 50% AMI

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State of CA

Solano

Contra Costa

Alameda

Santa Clara

Monterey

Imperial

Madera

San Diego

Fresno

Kern

Orange

San Joaquin

Stanislaus

Sacramento

San Bernardino

Riverside

Los Angeles

$0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000

$152,848,525

$4,402,454

$16,438,850

$22,447,682

$36,426,987

$1,284,794

$1,708,780

$5,561,076

$17,416,594

$20,746,400

$28,717,185

$31,703,593

$32,244,291

$45,805,305

$46,165,159

$86,048,791

$107,615,501

$286,452,907

Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) Funding

Total NSP FundingC

ounti

es

Bay Area Counties

CA Coun-ties

Source: 2011 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development

7Source: 2000 U.S. Census

Data

Nine Bay Area Counties:

One of the areas hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis

Four counties received NSP funds: Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, and Solano

Five counties were not funded: Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, and Sonoma

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Bay Area Demographics

2005-2009 American Community Survey Data: Total Population Minority Population Families Below Poverty Level Median Household Income Median House Value Median Gross Rent

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10

11

California Bay Area0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

29,357,763

6,950,764

14,050,485 (39%)

2,982,924 (43%)

Total Population Minority Population

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13

8,333,69

0

1,618,138 (10%)

Poverty in California

Total FamiliesFamilies Below Poverty Level

819,788

102,517 (6%)

Poverty in Bay Area

Total FamiliesFamilies Below Poverty Level

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Bay Area Housing Data

The Bay Area is expensive:

Bay Area residents earn 25% more than other Californians

Home values in the Bay Area are 29% higher than other places in California

California Bay Area$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$60,392 $75,627

$479,200

$617,441

Income and House ValuesMedian Income Median House Value

Source: 2005-2009 American Community Survey Data

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HOUSE VALUES:CA median house value $479,200Bay Area median house value $617,441Bay Area house values average $138,241 (29%) higher than CA

RENT:CA median rent $1,116Bay Area median rent $1,273Bay Area rents average $157 (14%) higher than CA

Note: some areas have no renters and are categorized as $0 rent areas

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Where is the greatest need?

Variables to identify need:

High number of foreclosures

High number of delinquent mortgages

High percentage of house price decrease

High percentage of unemployment

Source: June 2009-2010 U.S. Dept. of Housing and

Urban Development Data

BAY AREA COUNTIES

OTHER CA COUNTIES

TOTAL CA0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

21,054

173,392

194,446

34,256

290,496

324,752

California Housing Data 2009-2010

Foreclosures Delinquent Mortgages

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21,000 foreclosures and 34,000 delinquent mortgages in the Bay Area in 2010

Contra Costa and Alameda counties had the highest number of foreclosures and delinquent mortgages

Source: June 2009-2010 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban

Development Data

Sonoma County

Solano County

Santa Clara County

San Mateo County

San Francisco County

Napa County

Marin County

Contra Costa County

Alameda County

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,00010,000

4,084

4,842

5,397

1,223

919

915

345

7,250

9,280

1,452

3,735

3,280

737

301

417

169

5,558

5,405

Bay Area Housing Data 2009-2010Foreclosures Delinquent Mortgages

20Sonoma County

Solano County

Santa Clara County

San Mateo County

San Francisco County

Napa County

Marin County

Contra Costa County

Alameda County

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

10%

12%

11%

9%

9%

9%

8%

11%

12%

Bay Area Unemployment Rate 2009-2010

Sonoma County

Solano County

Santa Clara County

San Mateo County

San Francisco County

Napa County

Marin County

Contra Costa County

Alameda County

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%

-33%

-48%

-23%

-18%

-18%

-36%

-18%

-31%

-31%

Bay Area Change in Home Value 2009-2010

Bay Area counties’ average home value decrease was -28%Solano County had the largest decrease (-48%) in home value

Bay Area counties’ average unemployment rate was 10%Alameda and Solano Counties had the highest unemployment rate (12%)

Source: June 2009-2010 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban

Development Data

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Index of Need

High number of foreclosures Estimated number of completed foreclosures from June 2009-June 2010

from RealtyTrac Count based on estimated share of delinquent borrowers Weight: 40%

High number of delinquent mortgages Estimated rate of mortgages that are seriously delinquent (90 or more

days) by county in June 2010 from McDash Analytics’ predictive model Weight 30%

High number of house price decrease Metropolitan area’s decrease in home value since peak value as of June

2010 from Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index Weight 20%

High number of unemployment County unemployment rate as of June 2010 from Bureau of Labor Statistics

Local Area Unemployment Statistics Weight 10%

Source: June 2009-2010 U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development Data

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Take Aways

NSP funded Bay Area counties with high foreclosure rates

Other variables are indicators of foreclosure assistance need

Solano, Contra Costa, and Alameda counties have the highest need for assistance

NSP funded Santa Clara County with the most funding

Policy impact: foreclosure prevention assistance is needed

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Summary of GIS Skills

1. Inset Map2. Point Graduated

Symbol3. Aggregating

Attribute Data4. Attribute Sub-sets

Selections5. Boundary Sub-sets

Selections

6. Geoprocessing layers

7. Modeling8. Metadata9. Measurement/

Analysis10. Original Data11. Charts and Images12. Hotspot Analysis

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GIS Modeling

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Data Sources

2000 U.S. Census and 2005-2009 American Communities Survey

Original data sources: HUD data reflecting housing market

conditions between June 2009-2010 includes RealtyTrac data on foreclosures; concatenated state, county, and census tract codes for geocoding

HUD data as of January 2011 regarding NSP funding for states, counties, cities and nonprofits; aggregated by county (refer to metadata screen shot)

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Metadata

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Photo Credits

Slide #1 – The Los Angeles Times, December 18, 2007, Location: Palmdale, CA

Slide #1 - David Butow, The Los Angeles Times, January 6, 2011, Location: Stockton, CA

Slide #3 – Jonathan Alcorn, The Los Angeles Times, March 10, 2011 Location: Los Angeles, CA

Slide #30 - The Los Angeles Times, March 10, 2007, Location: unknown

Presentation by:Karna WongUCLA March 2011GIS 206A Professor Kawano