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The Future Landscape
Eurima Annual Meeting
Sitges
May 26th 2010
Rohit Talwar
CEO - Fast Future
www.fastfuture.com
Web / Newsletter: www.fastfuture.comhttp://twitter.com/fastfuture
http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwarBlog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.com
Emerging Business Drivers
• Total
Sustainability
• Business • Business
Models
• Science
• Emerging
Markets
Love is in the Air
Suspicious Minds
Dancing in
GDP
Growth
India
8-10%
6-7%
Strategic OptionsPrepare for Alternative Scenarios
Road to Nowhere
Dancing in the Dark
India
and
China
6-7%
1-2%
Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%
GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
10 Mega-trends shaping the next decadeEconomic turbulence, a shift in wealth from west to east and political
uncertainty are shaping the landscape
Demographic Destinies
Society in Transition
Natural Resource Challenges
Geo-political Complexity
Generational CrossroadsEconomic Crisis
and Power Shift
Source: Designing your Future – Key Trends, Challenges and Choices – Fast Future August 2008
Technologyand Science
Rethinking Talent,Education, Training
GlobalInternetExpansion
Enterprise 3.0
Global Population2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics
1998
448 691 5231732
337
1998
729
4054
973
577
Source : United Nations2009 2050
Life Redefined
Under 50’s have 90% chance of living to 100.
Aubrey de Grey suggests we could live to 500 or 1000
What are the customer / staffing implications?
How will our concepts of life, work and family change?
Economic Power Shifts
GDP US$
The Top 20 in 2025?
Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‘the World in 2050 March 2008 editionSource: PwC
Figure 1: E7 could overtake G7 by 2020
40000
50000
60000
GDP at PPPs (constant 2008 I$)
Convergence OvertakingCatch-up
E7 to catch G7 by 2019?E7 = China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey
0
10000
20000
30000
200020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
1920
2020
2120
2220
2320
2420
2520
2620
2720
2820
2920
30
Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter
GDP at PPPs (constant 2008 I$)
G7 GDP
E7 GDP
Source: PwC: January 2010
Growth Rank
City Country Average real GDP growth in 2008-25 (% per annum)
1 Hanoi Vietnam 7%
2 Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam 7%
3 Changchun China 6.9%
4 Guangzhou China 6.8%
5 Addis Ababa Ethiopia 6.8%
6 Xian China 6.7%
Fastest Growing Cities to 2025
7 Surat India 6.7%
8 Beijing China 6.7%
9 Jaipur India 6.7%
10 Lucknow India 6.6%
11 Chengdu China 6.6%
12 Shenyang China 6.6%
13 Kanpur India 6.6%
14 Shanghai China 6.6%
15 Tianjin China 6.6%
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November 2009
Fastest Growing Cities to 2025Growth Rank
City Country Average real GDP growth in 2008-25 (% per annum)
16 Pune India 6.6%
17 Chongqing China 6.6%
18 Ahmedabad India 6.5%
19 Kabul Afghanistan 6.5%
20 Bangalore India 6.5%
21 Hyderabad India 6.5%
22 Dar es Salaam Tanzania 6.5%22 Dar es Salaam Tanzania 6.5%
23 Chennai India 6.5%
24 Delhi India 6.4%
25 Lagos Nigeria 6.4%
26 Nairobi Kenya 6.4%
27 Kolkata India 6.4%
28 Mumbai India 6.3%
29 Chittagong Bangladesh 6.3%
30 Kinshasa DRC 6.3%
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers UK Economic Outlook November 2009
Tracking the rise of the middle class across the BRICs and N-11 Population Share with incomes
between $6,000 and $30,000 (PPP terms)
Country 2009 (%) 2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%)
Brazil 46 52 59 57
Russia 71 71 56 29
India 6 16 46 89
China 37 59 75 53
Korea 67 46 23 7
Bangladesh 0 1 5 38Bangladesh 0 1 5 38
Egypt 39 57 84 82
Indonesia 16 29 57 87
Iran 70 77 73 41
Mexico 61 65 65 49
Nigeria 6 9 18 42
Pakistan 9 13 22 49
Philippines 15 23 40 69
Turkey 79 81 70 35
Vietnam 7 21 51 84
Source: Goldman Sachs, August 2009
Our Personal ‘Ecosystems’ Will Evolve
Augmented Reality
Fully Mapped Personal Genome
Memory Capture /
Enhancement
Body Area Network
Telephony• Voice• Messaging• SIM card• Phonebook• Ring Tones• Security
Connectivity• Cellular• Up to 14 bands• WLAN/BT• GPS• NFC• FM
Technology – The World in your Hand?
Data/Enterprise• 100Mbps• Email• IMS• Browsing• VPN• PIM• Ecommerce• Payments
Software• Protocols• Middleware• Applications• User Interface• Minimize fragmentation
Multimedia• Camera 8-16M• Camcorder• 24M Color Display • Memory (160GB)• Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out• Games (50-100M Tps)
• DRM
Hypersonic FlightHypersonic Flight
www.mondolithic.com
Miami to London in 2 HoursMiami to London in 2 Hours
Science Based Future Jobs
1. Body Part Maker
2. Nano-Medic
3. Pharmer of Genetically
Engineered Crops and
Livestock
4. Memory Augmentation 4. Memory Augmentation
Surgeon
5. ‘New Science’ Ethicist
6. Vertical Farmers
7. Climate Change Reversal
Specialist
8. Alternative Vehicle Developers
9. Quarantine Enforcer
10. Weather Modification Police
Science Enabled Future Jobs11. Old Age Wellness Manager /
Consultant Specialists
12. Space Pilots, Architects and
Tour Guides
13. Virtual Lawyer
14. Avatar Manager / Devotees -
Virtual Teachers
15. Narrowcasters
16. Waste Data Handler
17. Virtual Clutter Organizer
18. Time Broker / Time Bank
Trader
19. Social 'Networking' Worker
20. Personal Branders
Most Popular Careers
� Old Age Wellness
Managers
� Social Networking � Social Networking
Worker
� Nano-Medic
0
5
10
15Operating Profit ($ billions)
-20
-15
-10
-5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F
Source: InterVISTAS Consulting citing Industry Financial Forecast Table (IATA Economics).
Rising Infrastructure Spending
• CIBC projects up to $35 trillion in public works by 2030 (1)
• Annual spend:
–North America –North America $180Bn
–Europe $205Bn
–Asia $400Bn
–Africa $10Bn
Airport Expansion by 2020
China from ~150 to 244China from ~150 to 244India from ~100 to 500India from ~100 to 500
Scanning the Horizon
• New science and technology
• Alternatives e.g Vacuum Insulation Panels, Insulation Panels, Lightweight Ceramic Ablator (LCA), Ceramic Paint-on Insulation
• New / Growing Markets e.g. Asian Housing
• New Applications
Undertaking Fundamental Strategy Review –
Create a Roadmap for Change
Purpose,
Strategic
Direction
and Vision
Core
Products
and
Service
Offerings
Delivery
Model
Organization
Model
• Total Sustainability Agenda
• Understand emerging
ConclusionSustainable Strategy
• Understand emerging drivers
• Pre-empt or respond?
http://cache1.asset-cache.net/xc/BCN_009.jpg?v=1&c=NewsMaker&k=2&d=4FEEC773ACC47E576DAE811695B623C8
Image and Data Sources
Slide No.
1. http://physics.dit.ie/blog/uploaded_images/Picture-1-705072.png
2. http://www.jerryhart.com/wp-content/uploads/social-media-excitement.jpg
3. http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg
5. Source: Designing your Future – Key Trends, Challenges and Choices – Fast Future August 2008
6. http://www.tallbergfoundation.org/Portals/0/Images/T-roundtable%204.jpg
7. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1f/Wolves_Kill.jpg/500px-Wolves_Kill.jpg
8. http://psdblog.worldbank.org/photos/uncategorized/2007/12/03/money_3.jpeg
9. http://visitbulgaria.info/files/china_india.jpg / http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20090222/eu-europe-economy-summit/images/137adda3-7bad-
4917-87ff-e413d29c80d9.jpg
10. http://creativeclass.typepad.com/thecreativityexchange/images/2007/12/01/global.jpg
11. Data source - http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm
12. http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging.html
15. http://www.bizcommunity.com/Image.aspx?cii=48763&i=47281&ct=1 /
18. http://kc3.pwc.es/local/es/kc3/publicaciones.nsf/V1/153A71BAD7E4F7D7C125771F002E4EB9/$FILE/Emerging%20Multinationals.pdf
19. Source: Next Vietnam, 2009 http://world.nextvietnam.biz/2009/mapping-global-disposable-income-emerging-market-potential/
20. https://map.maindomain.fi/scripts/edoris/edoris.dll?tem=frameset20. https://map.maindomain.fi/scripts/edoris/edoris.dll?tem=frameset
21. http://www.blisstree.com/geneticsandhealth/files/2006/05/personalized%20medicine.jpg
22. Nanotech - http://www.anthonares.net/molecular_machine.jpg / http://singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/gene_therapy.jpg / http://www.eurescom.de/message/messageNov2006/images/Telemedicine.jpg / http://unmediated.org/images/20041015_scopo.gif
23. http://www.lifeboat.com/images/nbic.jpg
24. http://static.howstuffworks.com/gif/gold-nanotech-2.jpg
25. http://www.abdn.ac.uk/dsb/images/systems_biology_pic.jpg
26. Http://www.braintumorawareness.org/dna_colorful.jpg / http://www.mediaupdate.co.za/blog/BLOGIMAGES/351.jpg
27. http://rdn-consulting.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/brain-chip.jpg28. AR - http://www.nineteenfortyone.com/wp-content/uploads/reality01.jpg
Genome - http://www.scientificamerican.com/media/inline/BA1FA211-D1E8-D704-796509F20DE29FAE_1.jpg
LAN - http://www.athena-gatech.org/research/BIOMEDICAL/7.png
Memory - http://www.media.mit.edu/wearables/lizzy/memory.gif
29. http://www.blisstree.com/geneticsandhealth/files/2006/05/personalized%20medicine.jpg
30. http://www.thednawealthcreator.com/images/superstock_1098r-6105b.medium.jpg
32. blog.core-ed.net/derekarchives/NokiaFanPhone.jpg / www.concept-phones.com/wp-
content/uploads/2009/06/trou_hologram_flexible_concept_phone_2.png
33. http://opengardensblog.futuretext.com/archives/mcommerce.bmp
34. http://www.blogcdn.com/www.downloadsquad.com/media/2009/07/ms-store-concept.jpg
36. http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2009/02/ted-digital-six/
37. http://www.highdisplay.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/future-computer-monitors3.jpg
Image and Data SourcesSlide No.38. http://www.muzlyrics.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/telepresence.jpg39. http://trendsupdates.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/molecular-transistor.jpg /
http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/images/quantumcomputer.jpg40. http://www.iro.umontreal.ca/~bengioy/yoshua_en/research_files/AIbrain.jpg41. http://www.fahad.com/pics/invisible_jacket.jpg42. http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3222/2948303697_e15ae8469a.jpg /
http://krisdedecker.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/03/23/personal_fabricator.jpg43. http://www.dieselstation.com/cars/audi-promotes-intelligent-emotion-project-a1682.html44. http://www.davinciinstitute.com/new/admin/content/FCKeditor/uploads/Flying%20Car%201.jpg46. www.economist.com/images/20041218/5104ST1.jpg / http://www.popsci.com/files/imagecache/article_image_large/files/articles/eads_485.jpg47. http://biotechnologyjobssites.com/images/biotechnology/biotechnology_250x251.jpg /http://okledokle.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/bionichand.jpg48. http://www.pgsuite.com/stories/2009/09/Eldercare.jpg /http://www.shapingyouth.org:8000/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/info-overload.jpg49. http://www.accordhospice.org.uk/content/images/big/Social%20Worker.png.jpg50. http://www.britsattheirbest.com/images/f_money_pounds.gif51. http://www.waytogoal.com/Portals/0/images/binoculars_ladder_closeup.jpg52. InterVISTAS Consulting citing Industry Financial Forecast Table (IATA Economics). 53. http://www.lostateminor.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/vertical_farming_1.jpg
/http://static.causecast.org/ef4d5ad2460a5e73054ec1f42c11c444d39b4d57/image.jpg54. http://mashable.com/images/sermoshot.png55. http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2007/06/01/farmers_gallery__470x311.jpg56. http://www.ljlindhurst.com/images/highway.jpg57. http://www.surfersvillage.com/gal/pictures/1215airplanes.jpg58. http://karmatrendz.wordpress.com/2009/03/29/michelin-amazing-retail-store-interior-by-eventscape/59. http://www.patelsmith.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/village-classroom-1.jpg60. http://www.eurescom.eu/message/messageNov2006/images/Telemedicine.jpg62. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/090305-daylight-saving-time-facts-history_big.jpg63. http://59seconds.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/curiosity.jpg64. http://www.wcu.edu/ceap/houghton/all/team-teaching/hands-holding-world.png65. http://sneezl.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/06/concept-flying-car.jpg66. http://pro.corbis.com/images/91687-50.jpg?size=67&uid=%7B4D0745C6-593A-427B-8817-1CDC409D3C57%7D67. http://www.cs.miami.edu/~geoff/Personal/Diving/Pictures/DuaneAOW.JPG69. http://www.psychologytoday.com/files/u250/PGCocreation.jpg70. http://www.hospitalcooperative.org/Portals/0/chain%20links.jpg
71. http://mandatemedia.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/07/10/coca_cola.jpg / http://somewordsandpictures.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/this-water-innocent.jpg
72. http://www.ripleys.com/assets/img/upload/bions/magnet_man.jpg73. http://www.masternewmedia.org/images/social_network_id469214_size440.jpg / http://i36.tinypic.com/vrxzll.jpg74. http://www.searchenginepeople.com/i/word-of-mouth.jpg75. http://www.downloadsoftware4free.com/screen/full/3d-graph-generatorswan-studios.jpg76. http://themindperspective.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/second_life-nanobugle.jpg
Fast Future • Research, consulting, speaking, leadership
• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people, trends and forces shaping the future
• Clients
– Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group
– Vancouver Airport Services
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– Saudi Tourism Commission
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– Governments in Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore, UK, US
– Industry Associations
– GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Samsung, GSK
Rohit Talwar• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.
• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic
innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on
5 continents
• Author of Designing Your Future – Published 08/2008
• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10
Global Future Thinkers
• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic
consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications, consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,
technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,
environment, food and government sectors
• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De
Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,
ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,
OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,
Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations
and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,
Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email
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Designing Your FutureKey Trends, Challenges and Choices Facing
Association and Nonprofit Leaders
leaders
• Strategic decision making
framework
• Scenarios for 2012
• Key futures tools and techniques
• Published August 2008
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Example Projects• Public and private client research e.g. :
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