The future o water availability and demand in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey Mexico (2009)

Documento de Trabajo

Working Paper EGAP-PE-09-01

The Future of Water Availability and Demand in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey Mexico

Blanca Flores Arriaga, Lorena Pulido Ramirez, Fabiola Valverde Zuñiga y Octavio Carrera Santa Cruz

Disclaimer: The author(s) is (are) responsible for all the information contained in the documents, which do not reflect EGAP’s point of view

Ave. Fundadores y Rufino Tamayo 66269, San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, México

1 The Future of Water Availability and Demand in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey2009

Blanca Flores ArriagaLorena Pulido RamírezFabiola Valverde ZuñigaOctavio Carrera Santa Cruz

The Future of Water Availability andDemand in the Metropolitan Area ofMonterrey, Mexico







2 The Future of Water Availability and Demand in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe water availability in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey in Mexico represents a

serious potential problem. The vision and development of Monterrey as a “Knowledge City”makes it more attractive for living –provoking a population increase-, at the time that the lack ofhistoric memory and population with ecological conscience could create a dangerouscombination. This situation becomes interesting because it involves the vital liquid and it implieseveryone. Besides, the nature of the problem offers interesting possibilities for the developmentof a dynamic model. This work will result interesting to any reader and didactic to every studentof future studies and dynamic systems.

The topic development involves the key elements of the system under study (recharge,storage and different types of consumption) and the fundamental variables that affect them(evaporation, reuse and ecological conscience), taking in consideration recent data from officialsources, the model allows different runs. These present the risks implied under a -not doinganything- policy and the improvement on the water availability resultant on the variouspossibilities of intervention. The model shows in a clear way, than a consistent reduction on thedomestic consumption extends significantly the water availability. It also evidences thatcontrolling totally the secondary variables (water reuse and leaks), is desirable and necessarybut it does not resolve the problem by itself. In synthesis, the model evidences than if the rightactions are not taken, the water availability in the Metropolitan Area will be a problem by 2030,at the time it indicates and dimension the key points involved in a successful intervention.

OVERVIEW AND BACKGROUNDThe 70.8% of earth surface is occupied by water, but only 2.5% of all existing water in

the planet is fresh water -which refers to water for human consumption-. However, only 0.5% ofthe existing water is available for our consumption, which corresponds to superficial orsubterranean water.

On earth there is about 6,000 millions of people, of which near 20% live in 50 countriesthat lack the vital liquid. Predictions are not positive; the UN said in Geneva that 60% of theglobal population will live in regions with water scarcity in 2025, if the recent rate of consumptionis maintained that doubles the rate of population increase. The entity defends that fight againstwater scarcity is one of the biggest challenges in the XXI century.

The consumption in the majority of European countries fluctuates between 200 and 300liters per day per person, meanwhile in United States the consumption is of 575 liters, whichcontrast with the 25 that some undeveloped zones consume, and the 80 liters that the WorldHealth Organization recommends for the vital necessities and personal hygiene. Contrastingwith that recommendation, the world average consumption of fresh water per day is 1,800 liters,if the consumption in activities like agriculture, livestock and industry is added.

In front of a world water scarcity situation, Mexico is not exempt of suffering the effects,because in the present even when some regions are taking conscience on the vital liquid, inothers the waste is evident. In the country, the average consumption is about 365 liters per dayper person. However, in Mexico City in places like Iztapalapa each person uses 28 liters perday; in media class sectors like in Benito Juárez delegation the consumption goes from 275 to410 liters; but in privileged areas like Lomas de Chapultepec the consumption goes from 800 to1,000 liters per day.

In that aspect, Monterrey has been an example of power in the implementation ofdecisions for water care and conservation, in 2007 the consumption was reduce from 350 to250 liters per day per person in average. However, this is not enough because even when theconsumption per capita has been reduce, Nuevo León as a state, faces specific situations of theregion and the city that affects the offer of water for society, these are: geographic situation,


because the state is situated in a semi-desertic zone, the constant climatologically fluctuations,low rate of precipitation and long periods of drought; and the contrast in the infrastructure. Theprediction that indicates a population increase in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey that reflectson an increase in the water demand is added to the previous list.

Besides of the threats mention before, the over-exploitation of natural sources and thebad use of the vital liquid enter to the equation. This originates a bigger level of scarcity thataffected in a direct and negative way the quality of life in all sector of the population.

To revert this situation, in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey the entity in charge of thewater and drainage administration (Agua y Drenaje de Monterrey) searched for new sourcesthat allows the state to increase the water resources, with the development of infrastructure andmedia campaigns to develop ecological conscience in the population for a rational andresponsible use of water.

Even when the actions implemented have represent a short term success, is necessaryto considerer that the climatic change, as well as the contamination and above all the populationgrowth in future years, are threats that attend against the water availability in the MetropolitanArea because they increase the chances for a scarcity of water with the necessary quality forhuman consumption.

OBSERVED TRENDS IN THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF MONTERREYPopulation increaseIncrease population rates present a decrease in values, but are maintained in positive values.Increase in the domestic consumptionFluctuation in the consumption between periods, the variation is explained by seasonalchanges. The general tendency shows an increase in the consumption.Decrease in the industrial consumptionFluctuation in the consumption between periods, the decrease could be explained by the use oftreated water in the industry.Stagnation in the increase of the storage capacityFrom 2002, the infrastructure destine to storage the resource has not been increase.Decrease in the total number of recharge sourcesWater wells and springs wear decrease in number.Decrease in the total of treated waterFluctuation in the treated water between months.

SEQUENCE FOLLOWED IN THE PROJECT


PROJECT OBJECTIVEDue to population growth and increasing demand for drinking water in the Metropolitan

Area of Monterrey, a dynamic model will be used to help identify the key elements which mustwork to ensure the availability of water to meet demand of different types of consumers.

HYPOTHESIS TO PROVEThe hypothesis establish that the availability of the vital fluid will decrease , reaching a

critical level in a period of 30 years, because even when it is a resource that can beregenerated, the maximum capacity is being overtaken by current consumption. This is mainlydue to population growth in the city.

CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM AND THE STORY BEHIND FEEDBACK LOOPS

The conceptualization and representation of the project was elaborated under a series ofassumptions which are presented below:

1. Water consumption of the Metropolitan Area depends more on domestic consumptionand industrial consumption, which includes the commercial consumption. Theagricultural and public consumption are not considered in the project.

2. Only the number of people will affect the amount of infrastructure investment for waterthat the government will intend to use.


Story behind the feedback loopsNegative Cycles:

The causal diagram consists of two negative cycles, the first starts with the wateravailable that represents our variable of interest (also called "State of the System" in thebibliography). This cycle, B1 (negative cycle) represents the behavior of the water available inthe Metropolitan Area of Monterrey, the administration responsible of providing this service andof developing the infrastructure necessary to keep quantities of water stored to satisfy thedemands of the citizens is “Agua y Drenaje de Monterrey”.

The behavior is as follows:The more water available,The service of supply water is maintain stable and the total demand of the population that iscomposed of domestic and industrial consumption increases,So the water stored in the infrastructure built for this decline,And the water available to satisfy the demand will decrease as a result of the decrease in thestorage capacity and water treatment.

The stored water varies according to the efficiency in water management, if the systemhas more leakage the stored water will decline, this behavior is represented in the cycle B2(negative cycle). This cycle represents the behavior of the stored water, based on thepercentage of leakage in the system for storage and distribution.

The behavior is as follows:The more water stored,The higher the percentage of leakage because the flow of water through the system and itsdistribution ring increases,So the stored water will be reduced.

Positive Cycles:The diagram also has positive cycles that impact the variable of total demand of water,

which has from one side the impact of the domestic consumption and the other side theindustrial consumption that includes commercial consumption. The industrial consumptionincreases as the industry in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey grow, this behavior isrepresented in the cycle R1 (positive cycle). This cycle represents the behavior of the industry inthe Metropolitan Area of Monterrey, based on the rate of industrial growth.

The behavior is as follows:The more industry,Higher industrial growth as the development will attract other companies,So there will be more industries.

In determining the industrial consumption also is consider the reuse of water, influencedby the amount of water available. The more water available, the lower the reuse of water so theindustrial consumption will increase.

The domestic consumption is growing as the population in the Metropolitan Area ofMonterrey does, this behavior is represented in the cycle R2 (positive cycle). This cyclerepresents the behavior of the population in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey, based on the


percentage of population growth. This reflects the growth that the MAM has experienced amongother factors like the migration, as a result of the attraction campaigns of the government.

The behavior is as follows:The more population,The population growth rate will be higher,So the population will be each time bigger.

In determining the domestic consumption also enters in consideration the rationalization indomestic consumption as a result of the development of an ecological conscience. At a higherenvironmental awareness and ecological conscience, the rationalization of water resources willincrease and the domestic consumption will be reduced. Also the rationalization is influenced bythe amount of water available in the system. The more water available, the lower the waterrationalization will be and the domestic consumption will be higher.

FORRESTER DIAGRAMThe Forrester diagram is a graphical representation of a system, which defines the

blocks and their relations, the inputs and outputs, the accumulations. In it is possible to reflect areality and model (after feeding equations in the simulator) different scenarios in a definedhorizon of time. The block diagram of the project is composed by 33 variables.


SIMULATION RESULTING GRAPHSAvailable Water:In the following chart the performance ofthe variable called “Available water” isshown, as you can see for 22 years thewater simulation shows a downwardtrend. In the early years of simulation, thequantities of water and the consumerbehavior provoked a marked decrease inwater availability, the resources are notsufficient for the demand of thepopulation, this trend of decrease isunsustainable and could represent a crisisin the future if it is ignored.

Available Water versus Population and Industry:To the behavior of available water inthe chart presented above, twovariables that may explain this trendare added. As shown in the figure,consumption (both domestic andindustrial) show an upward trend thatcauses that available water resourcesare not sufficient to meet demand andconsequently decrease annually untilthe available water reach a criticalpoint. Population and industry growthis determined by their respectivegrowth rates, a change in that long-term value could reverse the trend.

Domestic Consumption:The chart represents the behavior of domesticconsumption, which depends on thepopulation taken into the MAM and the speedat which it increases. The behavior of thesetwo shows upward trends, which determinesthe total population in the region and alsodomestic consumption. The four variablesshow an upward trend, which represents achallenge in the management of waterresources particularly if the behavior ofdomestic consumption is not accompanied byan increase in the capacity of water recharge.


Industrial Consumption:In the previous chart the behavior ofindustrial consumption is shown, it dependson the overall industry that is in the MAMand the speed at which it increases. Thebehavior of these two shows upward trends,which determines the total industry-commerce in the region and turn industrialconsumption. The four variables show anupward trend, which represents a challengein the management of water resourcessimilar to the expressed for the domesticconsumption. The increase in watertreatment can mitigate this behavior.

Water Leaks:The following chart shows the performanceof the variable “Water leaks”, which isdetermined by a certain percentage ofavailable water. As you can see in the chartwater leaks show similar trend to the variablewater available as they are dependent on it.Thus, over the years, the total water wastedby mismanagement of the fluid resourcedecreases, not by the improvement in thisprocess that would represent a decrease inthe rate of leakage, but by the decline inwater resources.

Sensitivity AnalysisAccording with John D. Sterman, this analysis helps to identify those parameters and

relationships to which the behavior and policy recommendations are sensitive. Parameters thatdo not significantly affect the results need not to be estimated with high accuracy, allowingfocusing the limited resources on those factors that do matter so they can be modeled andestimated more accurately. As results of this test, in the model were identify two importantvariables: “Rate of population growth with and ecological conscience” and “Leakage rate”.

Rate of population growth with and ecological conscience:Currently in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey the growth rate of the population with

water awareness is 3%, according to research carried out by the team, it was decided to set upas a parameter an initial rate of awareness to 8%; due to the impact that resources earmarkedfor water saving campaigns and international publicity of environmental awareness couldachieve a 5% increase in the current rate. It was also established, such as setting a minimum of1% growth rate represents a most disappointing, not only represents a high population growth


which is not aware if the possibility that a percentage of the population back to excessiveconsumption of water resources. Both scenarios are feasible, the parameters vary between 3%each. The chart shows the results of the sensitivity runs generated by the simulator; the imageshows the behavior of water available to change the initial value of people with conscience.

The different curves represent each of the following statutes:1. -1% annual growth in the population with ecological conscience for water care.2. 2% annual growth in the population with ecological conscience for water care.3. 5% annual growth in the population with ecological conscience for water care.4. 8% annual growth in the population with ecological conscience for water care.

Water Leakage rate:The MAM loses about 36% of available water by leaks. Through our research, we

established 40% as top of water loss by leaks, depending mainly of shorting in maintenancefunds. On the other side, we defined 25% as an optimistic but achievable indicator for waterloss by leaks through right investments both in maintenance and infrastructure. Next, thesensibility test results graph (through simulator) shows the available water trend depending ofwater leaks rate.

The different curves represent each of the following statutes:1. 25% available water lost by leakage.2. 30% available water lost by leakage.3. 35% available water lost by leakage.4. 40% available water lost by leakage.


SCENARIOSScenarios are tools to manage the perception of alternative futures and let through the

deep understanding of each potential turnout to learn about possible futures. These alternativesare developed based on the combination of assumptions, facts and trends. For the constructionof the scenarios presented in following paragraphs, the methodology of the axes of PeterSchwartz was followed. The tool of the founder of Global Business Network (GBN) has madegreat roots in organizations of various fields.

The key variables and their values to evaluate in the axis are presented in the table below:Variables Description

A Water Leakage rate(+) 25% of available water lost through leakage.(-) 40% of available water lost through leakage.

BRate of population growth with

an ecological conscience.

(+) 8% of annual growth in population with an ecologicalconscience for water care.

(-) -1% of annual growth in population with an ecologicalconscience for water care.

In the following chart is possible to observe four different scenarios resulting from themethodology for constructing scenarios of Peter Schwartz. The two key variables identified askey forces (driving forces) are: a) Water Leakage rate and b) Rate of population growth with anecological conscience for water care.


Scenarios Description

Scenario1: “Water takes the shape of its container”The availability of water in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey is one of the best and more

convincing proofs of the measures applied with a systematic approach and long term vision. It issaid that what is done or what it is not done in education matter pays or charges with highinterests in the long term and here is a good example.

Monterrey went through several crisis related to water, so at the end of 20 century it didgreat infrastructure works –specifically the Cuchillo dam- that significantly increase its storagecapacity. It was clear that it would solve the problem, but it was not enough in the long term,because in a complementary way, it started a program named “Culture of Water”, with a scopebased in social marketing at every level, that progressively changed and turned into apermanent and institutionalized educational campaign that is part of the educational programs inevery public and private school of MAM.

The practical and effective coordination and collaboration between the different actorsinvolved: “Agua y Drenaje de Monterrey”, the Minister of Education, the Municipalities, thepublic and private education centers, as well as the main communication media work for thisand the rest of the issues of priority (security, education, trash, etc.) The project was designedwith a scope of “Our City” in which was taken into advantage the great promotion and visibilitythat Santa Lucia drive gave to a family drive of great summon with an artificial river, showing itsattractiveness, its benefits and, -at the same time- the implied caring of water.

The marketing and the educational programs aligned and coordinated around the care ofwater achieve progressively to demolish the consumption per capita of water from 300 to 150liters daily per person, achieving an increase of the “conscious index” of 8% sustained, beingboth data a reference at a world level.

In a parallel way, the programs and actions of maintenance in the supply chain andconduction of water have achieved the decrease of the leak index from 36% that was a“constant” accepted and tolerated for many years, to a 25%. It is worth to highlight that thecitizen conscience have made it possible and real that the leaks at a domestic level areattended and eliminated in a very short term.

Besides, the educational program and of sustained conscience through the years havehad positive secondary effects, because the children and youngsters –and with them all theirfamilies- have increased the habits of consumption and care of water, but besides, whengrowing they have transmitted and impressed a scope in their business activities, which hasgenerated best practices at the level of industrial and public consumers who –even if they don’trepresent the main consumption in MAM-, have together contributed for the sustainability in thelong term.

With all said before, the best practices for the care of water have allowed that the climatechange –questioned in those times and that today is a reality that mean more extremetemperatures and cycles of drought and flood in practically the rest of the country– have notgenerated conditions of emergency or required rationality in the water supply. The Integralprogram of Water of Monterrey: Education, maintenance, recycle and management (differentialtariffs) is referred as a benchmark globally.


It is important to mention that the promotion of Monterrey as “City of Knowledge”,promoted since 2006 also implied that the industrial growth of MAM was modified toward one inwhich the new companies that started their operations since then, have a water consumptionsignificantly lower.

The actions have been successful, there is conscience and commitment from all theactors to continue and improve all these programs. Additionally, there has been work in the“parallel chain” of grey waters (resulted from the vertical growth of MAM), that would allow abetter advantage of these waters for the public use. Furthermore, the systems to collect andtake advantage of the fluvial water in roofs, parking lots and public parks are next to being partof the construction legislation.

All kids in Monterrey “live” in an articulated program and with a very practical sense ofconscience and care of water. This formation, by having a generational effect, generates avirtuous cycle that feedback all the system.

Scenario 2: “Won’t miss the water till the well runs dry”The people from Nuevo León that are used to consume an annual average of

approximately 300m3 of water has submitted his disagreement with “Agua y Drenaje deMonterrey” for not having enough water supply to fill their tanks and tubs for their daily activities,the department of complaints and clarifications have been working day and night to justify thelack of supply for all the residents of the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey despite all this theyhaven’t found a satisfactory solution for the citizens.

Compared with another years there has been an increase of illegal water connectionsamong the people living in the Metropolitan Area and a raise in the cyclical domestic revisions ofleakage suppressions, the consumers have stopped worrying about taking care of their pipesand maintenance of their sanitary facilities.

The Government of Nuevo León is now in a crossroads because their efforts to invest ininfrastructure and the successful program of leakage suppression that started since 2009oriented not only in replacing the pipes but to renew them, ignored the fact that the people withecological conscience of the use of this vital liquid could migrate to other states and theirpopulation or major consumers whom are migrants from other states in search of work wouldnot be informed about the problem of water availability in the AMM, the programs andcampaigns towards an ecological conscious and responsible citizenship in water use is limited,the Government have been presenting the same campaigns over the years and haven’t madeany change on the very low water rates for this service only for the benefit of the citizens, evenknowing that the domestic and industrial consumption has been increasing very fast for the pastyears.

The program of leakage suppression has not improved the supply service or theavailability of water, it has only helped to keep in balance the system for a short period of time,causing that the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey will sooner or later return to the same problem.

Monterrey despite of being a national and international role model as a pioneer inseveral programs for the reuse of water, suppressions of leaks and ecological conscience, isstopping now his economic development with the same problem that was presented 22 yearsago, the availability of water .


Scenario 3: “It leaks water everywhere!”The water availability in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey has gone worse as a result of

the water leakage increment from 36% to 40% and a decrement in the consciousness aboutwater care and use. At the beginning of the 21st century, it was thought that the water problemwas solved, the infrastructure in the zone was enough and like a consequence of the progressthat the citizenship had been made with respect to the culture of water, there were no need tocontinue investing in the strengthen of making aware about the vital liquid care.

From the 2009 it was begun to neglect the care of the pipes and plumbing and watertakings, the waste of the water became imminent and the authorities didn’t take the suitablemeasures on the matter. This happened because within the State arose projects extremelyrelevant for the region economy, reason why investing resources for the impulse of theseprojects became extremely relevant, restricting therefore the destination of support in so neededmaintenance the water network.

Another factor that made the situation worse was the lack of support that also appearedabout the personnel training and the introduction of technology to the governmental organization“Agua y Drenaje de Monterrey” which is responsible for the water management. At thebeginning of the 21st century, this institution had the technology, processes and proceduresmore advanced in Mexico, that is why Nuevo León and its metropolitan zone were nationalexamples; but the lack of update left behind the progress made and the result is reflected in theamount of water that is lost by concept of water leaks (40%).

As well, thinking that the “Culture about Water” was extremely deeply-rooted in thepopulation, and that the campaigns made at the end of 20st century and the beginning of the21st, had been the detonating of the increase of awareness about the use of the water, madethat measures taken, like advertising, were relaxed and only were concentrated efforts incontinuing as before it were had been doing. This assumption didn’t contemplate the fact thatthere were people whom at the moment had water awareness but emigrated to other states,and that also there are people of other states without culture about the water care and use thatmigrated to the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey, or that the growth of the population required ofa greater diffusion of the campaigns, reason why instead of increase awareness on the cultureof the water, it decreasing, obtaining so the domestic consumption will increase from the 2008to the 2030, around 54.11%.

As a result of the sum of these factors, the availability of water in the Metropolitan Area ofMonterrey was seriously affected, from having 1,404,800,000 m3 in 2008, to the 2030; it wasreduced to 696,766,672.29 m3, which represents a diminution of 50.4%. Because the wateravailability per capita is based on the water available, this one was reduced of 390.37 m3 byperson in the 2008 to 125.24 m3 in the 2030, representing the aggravation of the situation.

Scenario 4: “Spilt water does not return!”The water availability in the Metropolitan Area of Monterrey has been reduced

considerably because the increment of water leaks from 36% in 40%, even though the waterawareness has increased this hasn’t been enough.

In 2008, the leaders of Nuevo León made a research in which identified that the domesticconsumption required the greater amount of water, reason why they saw as an imminentmeasure to continue working and even to redouble efforts to encourage a awareness aboutwater care and use, and thus to reduce the consumption per capita, in that moment for them, in


sights to the future this variable looked like having more impact than any other; nevertheless,they forgot systemic vision, in which there are several elements that interact, and didn’t payinterest in solving situations that in the short term represented a strong risk, like the water leaks.

Based on the decision they took, the leads deployed a series of measures includingmarketing and educational programs aligned and coordinated about the care of the waterenvironment to achieve progressively decreasing per capita consumption of water 300 to 150liters per person per day, achieving a growth "index of conscience" of 8% growth. Thesemeasures had excellent results, a greater number of people consume 150 liters per day, but thiswas not enough to offset the loss of 40% water are presented annually for water leakage.

The successes achieved with the campaigns, didn’t allow decision-makers became awareof this problem; well, the income of projects of great importance for the economic developmentof the state captured the attention of the leaders that the problem of water leakage made worse,making even when people consume less water, the vital liquid flows outside their hands.

Thanks to the increase in the growth of awareness, domestic consumption grew only by33.32% (378549975.3 m3 in 2008 to 504672308.4 m3 in 2030), a percentage that is relativelygood because of the imminent impact of population growth, the available water was reduced by38.43%, negative effect that was reduced by the measures taken, but in case of water leaks therequired adjustments had been made, this effect could have been reduced in greater proportion.

Because the per capita water availability is a function of available water, and this wasaffected heavily by the lack of attention to leaks, it was reduced to 365.18 m3 per person peryear in 2008 to 155.46 m3 in 2030, which represent that while effective measures were taken,the problem still persists.

Scenarios effect on Water Available VariableIn the following image, for each scenario there is a graph that presents with a blue line the

behavior of the water available variable that the original model forecasts. In red, is possible toidentify the new behavior of that variable under the effect of the key variables parameters.


RECOMMENDATIONSThe model shows that a very obvious problem globally, nationally and in this case as state

and regional like water lack is not a simple solution and have not solved the problem simplylowering the total consumption, for obvious it may seem. There are different variablesinteracting in the system, each one of them with different impact and behavior.

The model shows that, while necessary, is not enough to direct investment toinfrastructure construction and investment in leakage control, and that only maintains thebalance of the system by a short period of time. Such is the case of scenario 2, which shows ahigh investment in infrastructure to control water loss from leaks. However, only by takingcorrective measures for this variable, the system returns to collapse, raising the totalconsumption and decreasing water availability. An aggravating factor in this approach is thatshort-term, such measures are "shocking" and can generate a peace unfounded.

Similarly, if the investment in infrastructure and programs for leakage correction arerestricted, and every effort is directed to achieving a public awareness on the consumption anduse of this resource, implementing the theoretical and practical educational programs in schoolsand campaigns public awareness to reduce consumption, the system succeeds in extending theavailability of water over a long period of time. However, the trend remains toward collapse,pushed mainly by population growth and no remedial measures have not controlled for the lossof water due to leakage in the pipes of the MAM.

The key recommendation for public managements and departments is that performingtheir planning with a long and short term view, considering contingency plans, is necessary.

It is clear that we don’t have, nor will have all the necessary resources at a time. Themodel succeeds in making evident the priority and with greater impact on the system issues. Itis necessary that the Federal Government support and invest resources in:

1) Permanent campaign of the equation and awareness of proper care and use of water forthe entire population of school age.

2) Programs for the use and reuse of water for the current adult population in order to notonly take control of waste water by removing the leak, but the citizenship work to elevatethe utilization and availability of water rising the rate of awareness, encouraging peoplein Nuevo León to develop a culture of caring for the water that will spread in thepopulation the importance of making good use of this resource. Delivering the MAMagain serve as one of the pillars of economic and social development of the country.

3) A major boost to the improvement in the maintenance of the water distribution networkfor progressive reduction of the leakage.

4) Maintenance and improvement of water management schemes, as regards themanagement of differentiated and preferential rates to encourage the care and waterreuse.

A final clarification: the priority of the recommendations corresponds with the appearanceorder. Educational processes do not yield immediate impact, but the real key to long-termsustainability.


CONCLUSIONSAs it was mentioned at the outset, the issue of water might seem known, predictable and

without great complexity. However, when it is tackled from a systemic and systematic approachin the design of a model, the project took another dimension.

Thus, the "simple" act of gathering information on water with different angles of entry, tospend on research and reflection that involved every step of the model from the dynamicscenario, through the causal diagram and the block diagram, we offered and showed the valueof exercise in the sense that going into detail what seemed obvious and simple, was not somuch and we need to rethink and re-raise many times each one of the steps.

The systemic thinking and modeling are a lot more a style than a prescription andtherefore requires a lot of practice because the finished product is always subject to change.This was clearly demonstrated throughout our process.

Another element -again, probably associated with the theme of water- is that it wassupposed that "the answer was already knew" and in many times the model discovered issuesthat it hadn’t been planed or designed as for example, the weight of "Water Leaks" in thebehavior of the model -matter that was interesting-, also resulted fascinating how the samevariable may behave differently over time and not present continued trends.

Also was interesting the effect of the incremental process of modeling, in the sense thatboth the learning content (water) and the process (modeling), they were integrated andcomplemented in the different steps of the project and there are moments of thinking veryillustrative.

Moreover, work in a multidisciplinary team was challenging, rewarding and enjoyable.With all of the above, we have a reasonable degree of consensus in the team that the

systems thinking and dynamic systems models should be part of many educational programs;we have much interest in practice and study in depth the methodology for using it in lateropportunities.

The methodology of dynamics systems, provide useful elements for making informeddecisions. It's simple and often move from one problem to the search for immediate solutions,with different motives and arguments, usually in a hurry and with a high risk of inefficiencyinvolved.

It is clear that in real life and in these days everyone has a limited budget or time, so that aprocess like this for a better decision making is more valuable and desirable. With this, it will bemore interesting and challenging to provide marketing to show the value of a methodology likethis.


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