The Future of Agriculture in Iowa

University Extension

The Future of Agriculture in Iowa

Ames Rotary

Ames, IowaApril 5, 2010

Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

[email protected]


Iowa’s Agricultural Rankings

Source: USDA-NASS

1st: Corn ProductionSoybean ProductionField Crop ValueEgg ProductionHog InventoryHog Value on FarmCommercial Hog SlaughterCrop Harvested Area

2nd: Pig CropRed Meat ProductionTotal Crop Value

3rd: Number of Farms

4th: Net Farm IncomeAlfalfa Hay ProductionSteers – 500 Lbs. & Over

5th: Oat ProductionCattle & Calves on Feed

6th: Heifers – 500 Lbs. & Over

7th: All Cattle & Calves

8th: All Hay ProductionAll Sheep & Lambs

10th: Land in FarmsCalf CropTurkeys Raised


Iowa Farms and Farmland

Source: USDA-Census of Ag.

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

1,0

00 f

arm

s

30

30.5

31

31.5

32

32.5

33

33.5

Mil

lio

n a

cre

s

Farms Acres


Age and Farm Values


45

47

49

51

53

55

57

1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Ye

ars

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

$1,0

00

Age Farm Value


Iowa Hog Operations


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

1,0

00

farm

s

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

Mil

lio

n h

ea

d

Farms w/ Hogs Number of Hogs

University ExtensionSource: USDA-NASS

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1,0

00

acr

es

Corn Soybeans Hay OatsWheat Barley Potatoes RyeFlaxseed Sorghum Sugarbeets Sweet Potatoes

Crop Shifts


U.S. Corn Supply and Use

Source: USDA

2007 2008 2009

Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5 86.0 86.5

Yield (bu./acre) 150.7 153.9 164.9

Production (mil. bu.) 13,038 12,092 13,131

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,304 1,624 1,673

Imports (mil. bu.) 20 14 10

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,362 13,729 14,814

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,913 5,246 5,550

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,049 3,677 4,300

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,338 1,276 1,265

Exports (mil. bu.) 2,437 1,858 1,900

Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,737 12,056 13,015

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,799

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.20 4.06 3.60

FeedFuel

Food


Population2008 2020 2050

(billion) (billion) (billion)World 6.678 World 7.601 World 9.393

China 1.330

China 1.431

India 1.808

India 1.148

India 1.362

China 1.424

U.S. 0.304 U.S. 0.336 U.S. 0.420Indonesia 0.238

Indonesia 0.268

Nigeria 0.357

Brazil 0.192

Brazil 0.212

Indonesia 0.313

Pakistan 0.168

Pakistan 0.204

Bangladesh 0.280

Bangladesh 0.154

Bangladesh 0.190

Pakistan 0.278

Russia 0.141

Nigeria 0.184

Brazil 0.228

Nigeria 0.138

Russia 0.132 Congo 0.189

Japan 0.127

Mexico 0.125

Mexico 0.148

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,International Data Base


Liquid Fuel Usage2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

(Million Barrels Oil Equivalent per

Day) (Percent of 2006 Value)

United States 20.7 95% 98% 98% 100% 105%

Canada 2.3 100% 100% 100% 104% 109%

Mexico 2.1 71% 81% 90% 95% 100%

Europe 15.7 92% 92% 95% 96% 96%

Japan 5.2 88% 92% 96% 92% 90%

China 7.2 118% 139% 168% 192% 213%

India 2.7 89% 115% 144% 159% 174%

Africa 3.0 117% 120% 123% 127% 130%

Central and South America 5.7 116% 116% 119% 125% 133%

World 85.0 102% 107% 113% 119% 125%

Source: Energy Information Administration


BiomassWind

Solar

Alternative Sources

University ExtensionSource: Liebman


Biobased Pathways

Source: USDA, 2008, U.S. Biobased Products: Market Potential and Projections Through 2025

University ExtensionSource: ISU Extension

University ExtensionSource: Cassman, U. of Neb.

University ExtensionSource: ISU Extension

Drying of DDG can be 30% of the energy costs of ethanol production

Fertilizer is ½ of the energy used in corn production.


Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

Documents

The Future of Agriculture in Iowa