THE FUTURE OF AUDIENCE RESEARCH

A STRANGE BUSINESS

Usually a business knows what it has produced, traded and delivered ,from its internal information sourcesWe depend on a survey to provide the market with that informationIt is usually as high a quality survey as can be affordedBUTIt is still only a survey combining research, statistics and technology

WHY DO WE DO THIS?

It is valuable for broadcasters to know how they are performing BUTWe would not have systems of this size , complexity and accuracy if we did not need a trading currency

WHAT DO YOU NEED FOR A TRADING CURRENCY?

• You need some numbers that parties to the trade can have sufficient confidence in as a measure of reality to be able to trade• Accuracy is nice but not obligatory

This is Not a New Issue

OUR JOURNEY

• It was straightforward• People only watched television on television sets• Relatively little viewing took place outside of private

homes• There was an existing accepted trading model and

currency using ratings and impacts• These could be measured by metered panels• Virtually all televisions could be metered• So a single reliable measurement could provide the

comprehensive currency

The Television environment got more complicated• improved definition• and then High Definition• digital as well as analogue• off-air, cable and satellite• colour• more channels• still more channels• VCR's and then PVR's

But…

Viewing was still confined to television sets so the existing measurement and currency could amend and cope

Then came the Internet

Others forecast the decline of television

The truth is otherwise

The internet plus more screens, more types of screen and in more locations expand viewing opportunities and have increased viewing

SO WHAT HAS CHANGED?

• Far from being in decline as some forecast, television has exploded onto screens of all types and sizes and all over the place• Fragmentation means that the actual size of

what we are aiming to measure gets smaller and smaller

Existing measurement systems can cope with live and playback television delivered to television sets via the internetSo the issue is not about the internet but about screens that cannot be metered in the usual way

With VOD the issue is more likely to be about the internet as well as the screen

• This is not about the future but the present • Television viewed on television sets continues to

be measured and traded as before• Television delivered via the internet tends to be

traded with the rest of the internet using clicks/hits/return path data

• There tend to be two currencies with their own structures, organisations and operations

• So going to one currency would involve changing existing trading behaviour

• Software meters and existing panels are a suggested solution but:• are they able to provide a comprehensive

measurement to existing quality standards?• what about sample size limitations?• and respondent compliance?

• Compared to the census of return path data have we reached the limits of what metered panels of affordable and practicable size can do?

DECISIONS

• Business decisions• Research decisions• The former should precede the latter • The latter should be able to meet the former’s

needs

TWO QUESTIONS

•What is television?•What is viewing?

FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS

•What do you want/need to measure?• And how well?

WHAT IS TAM/JIC FOR ?

• To measure viewing on domestic television sets?• To measure all viewing of television

broadcasters’ output?• To measure all audio-visual viewing?

BUSINESS QUESTIONS

• How big and important will viewing at home not on television sets become? How much effort, cost and upheaval is worth it?

• How important will it be for all television to be planned/traded with a single currency?

• Will fragmentation force change?• If the TAM JIC does not extend its measurement will the credibility of

the television currency suffer?• What about out-of-home? Does trading audio-visual with return path

data including out-of-home viewing open/reopen the issue for viewing on televisions?

• How will television viewing and airtime trading fit within total audio-visual? Do we need to distinguish broadcaster output from other audio-visual on the internet? If so, how and what about our material on third party sites?

• If the market retains separate measurements for viewing on television sets and via the internet how will it deal with any possible double counting?

The Importance of Timing

Timing

The case of BARB and playback

Timing

The case of BARB and playback

Timing

Wait for developments and then act

Pro-•Does not waste effort and costCon-•May suffer losses because of unmeasured viewing

Prepare for whatever may happenPro-•Ready for what happens when it doesCon-•Wasted effort and resource if it does not happen

TIMING

This time we’re all in this together

A POINT ABOUT TIMING

• In the past when new developments were taking place, decisions about measurement had to be made without good information

• Now RPD may give us a guide as to how big the unmeasured may be and so help in deciding what to do about it

HAVE WE TAKEN PANELS AS FAR AS THEY CAN GO?

PANELS

• Panels have been at the core of measuring television audiences

• Panels have provided us with reasonably reliable and accurate data and allowed for measurement of behaviour over time

• Panel sizes have tended to increase

PANELS BUT•Average home sizes have fallen so total panel individuals may not have increased by much•The variety of homes to be represented in terms of socio-demographic and television characteristics has grown•Channel choice has exploded and audiences have fragmented• Aggregation helps but the statistical reliability of our measurements has generally declined and continues to do so•Even if all screens of all types could be metered, for how much longer can we pull ‘the trick’ off?

PANELS BUT•Average home sizes have fallen so total panel individuals may not have increased by much•The variety of homes to be represented in terms of socio-demographic and television characteristics has grown•Channel choice has exploded and audiences have fragmented• Aggregation helps but the statistical reliability of our measurements has generally declined and continues to do so•Even if all screens of all types could be metered, for how much longer can we pull ‘the trick’ off?

PANELS• Why not increase panel sizes?• Generally at the levels of current panel sizes increases in those

sizes and costs bring disproportionately small statistical improvements

• Panels will always be relatively costly even if there was some cost cutting technical breakthrough in panel operations and meter technology and there is no sign of that

• People’s co-operation and compliance are at best not improving

PANELSWHAT IS TO BE DONE?

• Spend mega €’s more, maybe just to stand still?• Live with it?• Accept a gradual continuation of decline in accuracy?• Think outside of ‘the box’

RETURN PATH DATA

• Can television become more like other businesses and use its own internally generated data as a measure and currency or an ingredient for that?

• It is likely that it is the smallest channels and viewing events (those most disadvantaged by our panels ) whose audiences mostly or totally would be able to generate RPD because of the platforms that carry them

RPD

• Use them!• Easily said

BUT

• Need to be reliable/Be real opportunities for a person to see• Need to be measured in a way that can align with existing

measures• Need to be measured consistently by all parties

PANELS AND RPDPANELS

•Tell us about people’s characteristics and behaviour•Limited by sample size

RPD•Limited by only telling us about machines•But can have the advantage of census quality data

CAN WE BRING THE TWO TOGETHER TO ENJOY THE BENEFITS OF BOTH AND AVOID THE DRAWBACKS OF EACH?

OOH• Does this all reopen the issue of measuring and trading out-of-

home viewing?• Measurement was never going to be straightforward and

would still not be• But there are more people not living in private households

covered by TAM panels• And more viewing taking place by residents of private

households outside of such households• And trading some other media and specifically the Internet

includes out-of-home

THE RESEARCH AGENCIES• Comscore; GFK; Kantar; Nielsen• Start from different places• Comscore and Nielsen start with on-line panels and are moving

towards audio-visual to a TAM detailed level• GFK and Kantar start with TAM measurements and move towards

the on-line• Nielsen-a foot in both silos• All are working on how to measure audio-visual on non-television

screens and how to integrate that with TAM data• Software meters-issues with types of equipment/delivery such as

apps• Broadcasters need to ‘mark’ output• How to personalise RPD• How to integrate data

KANTAR MEDIA

• Virtual meter

• Kantar limited action in UK/BARB…but now

• RPD

• Data integration-Not yet

• Total meter

GFK• TAM operator• Software meter• Active projects • Using RPD but not for television currency• Not yet integrating data

COMSCORE• One of the two leaders in on-line panels and measurements.

Media Metrix.• No TAM involvement• Hold UKOM contract in UK and planning to include audio-

visual• In USA with ESPN integrating television viewing data with on-

line data• Open to working with TAM operators

NIELSEN

• A foot in both camps: TAM and on-line panels• On-line products. On-line Campaign Ratings.• Working across options including panels, software meters,

RPD, STB data, integrating data sources

IN THE UK

• BARB is now actively engaged in developments• Virtual Meter: Now in some 800 panel homes• Beyond 7 day playback• RPD-Project Dovetail

BACKGROUND TO VIRTUAL METER

• Television has spread to other screens• Follow the viewers• So the metered panel needs to do the same

THE VIRTUAL METER-TECHNICAL SIDE

• Another software meter: can do it all

• But mimics the set meter: sound activated/concentrates on television

• Log Panel members only

• Audio match (+ web address)

• Broadcasters may need to code

• Not (yet) all kinds of screen and operating system

• Need to identify the signal

THE VIRTUAL METER-RESEARCH SIDE

• Existing panel: need for agreement and compliance. What if not? Panel upheaval and cost (tail wagging dog)

• New panel: need for agreement and compliance. What if not? Recruitment rates, representativeness, costs.

THE VIRTUAL METER-SAMPLE SIZE

• The size of the metered television panel

• Too small for things this small?

• Zero, undermeasured, just right or overmeasured-usually not just right

• Matters?

• Small because it is small

• If it was larger it would then be measured more accurately

• Data integration

THE VIRTUAL METER-DATA

• What will be reported?

• What do you do with them?

• Too small? Too soon?

• Everything correctly identified? Wrong? Other data wrong? All wrong?

PROJECT DOVETAIL

• Co-ordinate the collection of consistent (same tagging) player data from major broadcasters• Report• Integrate with panel data

PROJECT DOVETAIL

• Co-ordinate the collection of consistent (same tagging) player data from major broadcasters• Report• Integrate with panel data

IN SWEDEN• MMS is the television JIC• Have been reporting television data alongside on-line• Objective now is to ‘Create a media currency for moving

images regardless platform, that are fully accepted and used by the industry’

• Work and testing solutions ongoing• 2016 target• Panel plus RPD• Codes inc on apps

IN THE NETHERLANDS

• One of the Google panel countries• Since 2010• Via GFK• Initiated and funded by Google but data for sale• Television + On-line + Demographics + Purchasing• Work in progress

IN GERMANY

• Target to link TAM panel with software meter panel for other screens• Target 2014

WHAT MARKET ARE WE IN?

• We have been and are television• Are we still television? • We compete with each other in the same traded environment• Or are we now audio-visual?• Are we now/in the future in the same market as anything else

of broadcast quality audio-visual on a screen or of anything audio-visual on a screen?

• Do we design a measurement that meets our needs and explicitly seeks to exclude others ?

• Or do we design a measurement that meets our needs but could also meet those of others (as in the past)?

• We? Others?

SO WILL THE INTEGRATION OF PANEL DATA AND RPD HAPPEN?

• What may seem logical and technically best does not mean it will happen

• Trading relationships and systems already exist separately for viewing on television screens v other screens

• CPT/revenue issues-but do they last? If the measurement of viewing via the internet is perceived as simpler/of lower research technical quality than for viewing on television sets how might that affect the growth and pricing of such airtime.

• Planning v trading • Good enough measurement drives out the better. Does a

measurement/currency that will do well enough prevent the coming of a better one? (Bad money drives out good.)

NEEDS AND PRIORITIES

• Television sets still matter: Their measurement remains the priority

• The metered measurement of (larger) screens at home that cannot be hardware metered

• The use of external data probably in some statistical combination with panel data

• The metered measurement of (smaller) screens that cannot be hardware metered/mobile/out-of-home

• The importance of IT expertise• Marking output

QUESTIONSCOMMENTSTHANK YOU