The Future of GOES Creating the Vision

…sustaining the mission…

…improving the products… …producing results…

Marie ColtonDirectorCenter for Satellite Applications and Research

Motivational Goal: Mapping Science to Systems

• Complete the user connection to the GOES formal requirements and acquisition documents that prescribe the

– What to measure? How? Where? When?

– At what cost?

• By answering the science and user questions– Why do we need to know? And for Whom?

• Using an organizational approach that recognizes differing R&D components of system and product development and their associated performance indicators

• And the natural affinity of scientists, engineers, and users to focus on user-inspired science

– Honor the past

– Improve the present

– Produce measurable results

– Shape the future

Evolution of Modern Science towards Definition of User-Inspired Science

Science in One Context“Science, The Endless Frontier” -- 1945

Federally sponsored science is critical to national defenseFederally sponsored science is critical to industrial growth“Plurality” of Federal performers is foundational

The Race to Space -- 1961Federally sponsored science is “sexy”; Federal sciencepays dividends; i.e. Tang & Teflon

The “Moral Equivalent of War”-- 1977Energy R&D is consolidated into one organizationPromoted government/ industry collaborations

“Science in the National I nterest” -- 1993Federally sponsored science should be reoriented to civilian

applications following end of the Cold WarTechnology Transfer should be a national priority

“War on Terrorism” -- 2001Federally sponsored science should support national defense.

Performance Assessment

“Pasteur’s Quadrant”, 1997, Donald Stokes, Brookings Institution Identifies user-inspired science (a la Louis Pasteur) as modern science domain between pure Basic (Neils Bohr) and pure Applied (Thomas Edison). Science needs technology, technology needs science

“The public opinion data are remarkably clear on the support for science [to provide for unmet societal needs], however distant and puzzling much of the public may find the scientific venture.”

Stokes, “Pasteur’s Quadrant”, p. 97

Excerpted from “Recognizing the Competing Values of R&D Organizations,”G. Jordan, Sandia National Laboratories

Small, Flexible, Diverse Science

Evolutionary

INTERNAL

Revolutionary

EXTERNAL

Large, Controlled, Convergent Science

MASTER: BE SUSTAINABLE CREATE: BE NEW

IMPROVE: BE BETTER PRODUCE: BE FIRST

Incrementally new ideasDevelop teachable pointsCommunity leadershipGreat Contributors

Radically new ideasA new way to ask or thinkGlobal leadershipUnusual projects

Incrementally new productsStandardized applicationsReliable facilitiesGood Technical ManagementProjects on track

Radically new productsIdentify applicationsRapid DeploymentProjects have high yieldStrategic Partnerships

Competing R&D Profiles -- Different Values & Performance Indicators

BE NEW

“the clouds moved - not the satellite”

Verner Suomi

•December 7, 1966:

NASA launched the first geostationary Applications Technology Satellite (ATS-1), which had the ability to see weather systems in motion with the first Spin Scan Cloud Camera.

The ATS-1 was capable of full-disk Earth imaging every half hour.

The National Severe Storm Forecast Center (NSSFC) and the National Hurricane Center benefited from imagery taken by ATS-3 in the early 1970's.

In 1994, the GOES was launched on a three axis stable platform (enabling better signal to noise in the measurements) and expanded to separate imaging and sounding instruments (allowing operational soundings for the first time).

GOES-8 is over 8 yrs

old

13 Apr 94

BE BETTER

BE FIRST: GOES12, July 23, 2001

BE SUSTAINING: People matter

With a loop projector constructed by Ted Fujita ATS cloud motions were studied

Verner E. Suomi and Robert J. ParentBill Smith, Then and After Then

BE NEW: GOES11 data during out-of-storage checkout

Improved understanding of water vapor cycle through detailed study of convective activity using in-situ, aircraft, satellite observations and modeling

GOES8 16 June 2002 GOES11

Benefits of 5-minute GOES-R:More timely identification of severe weather and subsequent warnings

More effective coordination between satellite and radar for identifying relevant features and trends

International H20 Project (IHOP), 2002

..Not just for clouds

anymore…

Products and Services Catalog(2002, Fourth Edition)

LAND, SEA, CLOUD TOP TEMPS

GOES Aerosol Smoke Product (GASP)

BE BETTER

BE FIRST MULTIPLATFORM SST: Maximize strengths – minimize weaknesses

Combine to obtain the optimal SST analysis

POES IR has high spatial resolution

GOES IR has high temporal resolution

Microwave has all-weather capability

BE SUSTAINING: Science Communities MatterEx: Redesignation of 12 µm Channel on GOES12

• Requires a change in SST retrieval algorithms • Need to generate new cloud mask• SST diurnal cycle studies important for a range of applications:

– Climate heat fluxes and temperature trends– Assimilation of SST data with asynoptic observation times– Process studies for diurnal cycle of atmospheric convection– Availability of heat for tropical cyclone development

Colorado FiresJune 2002

BE SUSTAINING:Real Communities Matter

BE NEWwith Technology

• Hyperspectral Environmental Sounder– Spectral resolution (.5 cm-1)– Spatial resolution (1 – 5 km)– Temporal resolution (15 min)– Radiometric Accuracy (0.1K)

* depict water vapor as never before by identifying small scale features of moisture vertically and horizontally in the atmosphere

* track atmospheric motions much better by discriminating more levels of motion and assigning heights more accurately

* characterize life cycle of clouds (cradle to grave) and distinguish between ice and water cloud (for aviation)

* measure surface temperatures (land and sea) by accounting for emissivity effects (the improved SSTs would be useful for sea level altimetry applications)

* distinguish atmospheric constituents with improved certainty; these include volcanic ash (useful for aircraft routing), ozone, and possibly methane plus others trace gases.

BE NEW: Impact of Horizontal Resolution on GOES-8 Brightness Temperature in the TC Eye

Hurricane Mitch with 4, 8, 16, 32 km Resolution (GOES-8 Channel 4)

Hurricane Analysis with the GOES-R Hyperspectral Environmental Sounder (HES)Coastal evacuations for hurricane landfalls strongly depend on forecasted intensityIntensity forecast skill is much less than track skillHES soundings in the hurricane eye and environment should improve intensity predictionCurrent GOES and MODIS imagery being analyzed for horizontal resolution requirements for eye soundings

BE NEW

NAST-Iduring CAMEX-3

September 14, 1998

Tracking features in HES water vapor retrievals will enable multilevel winds with accurate heights as simulated here for GIFTS

BE BETTERGeo Atmospheric Motion Vectors

International Cooperation provides global coveragefor winds in tropics and mid-latitudes

Model GOES DataNCEP Global Sounder Radiance, Imager Winds, Imager Radiances

Eta Model Sounder Radiance, Sounder PW, Imager Winds, Data for LandDataAssimilationScheme, Sounder Clouds

FSL’s RUC Sounder TPW, Sounder Clouds (March 2002) GWINDEX rapid-scan winds

CIMSS CRAS Sounder PW, Sounder Clouds

Australia (LAPS) Imager Winds

ECMWF Imager Winds, Imager Radiances

GFDL (experimental) Imager Winds

NOGAPS Imager Winds, Sounder Winds

NAAPS Imager Biomass Fire Product

CSU RAMS Imager Biomass Fire Product

BE BETTER: GOES radiances & products have major role in NWP

w/o GOES cloud assim w/ hrly GOES cloud assim cloud-top (verification)

SounderG-8/12

Sounder G-10

SounderG-9

Like-SounderMSG

Near Global Geo SOUNDING in 2003

BE FIRST

Paved roads and roads to be paved through the Avança Brasil program are shown as 100 km wide corridors centered on the roads (Panel A: locations A-G). The deforestation map is based on Landsat TM scenes (1991/1992) obtained from Michigan State University. (Nepstad, et al., 2001)

Panel A: Flammable forests, deforested land, and roads in the Brazilian Amazon region.

Panel B: Flammable forests and fires detected with the GOES-8 ABBA during 1998.

BE SUSTAINING: The Planet MattersStudy on Road Paving, Fire Regime Feedbacks, and the Future of the Amazon Forests

Nepstad, et al., 2001: Road paving, fire regime feedbacks, and the future of the Amazon forests, Forest Ecology and Management, 154, 395-407

BEING NEW: Answering the questions for the new ideas

What will sustain the habitability of the Earth?

(NASA)

Improved Weather Assessment and prediction

Improved Climate assessment and Prediction

Improved Resource/HazardsManagement

New and Improved Measurements and

Models

Overall Scientifi

c Progress

New MeasurementRequirements

Improved Quality of

Life

Improved Ocean

Assessment and prediction

What can we achieve towards goal with

current and near-term technology? (NOAA)

BEING BETTERPreserving The Conservation Equation

TimeMoneyPeopleComputersScienceationUserApplic

• The Sources – Obtaining funds for new and improved products– Phasing and balancing funds between research and operations in the

tech transition phase – Being creative, yet robust, and delivering on schedule

• The Sinks– Filtering the scientific options– Syntactical and computational demands– Finding and retaining the qualified people, life on the interface– Forming communities of support– Informing, educating, retaining the customers

BEING FIRST Managing the End-to-End Innovation

Prelaunch Early Orbit Period Transition Zone to Ops Long-Term Uses

Generate requirements Radiometric calibration Ground Segment monitoring Corrections RetrievalsFuture Systems planning Geolocation/navigation Images New products RadiancesInstrument Definition Archive Monitoring ImagesSimulation development Validation of SDRs Operational imperatives Continuity Time-seriesInstrument testing Validation of EDRs Algorithm maintenance Vicarious CalibrationCalibration procedures Computer code tests Distribution Nowcasting

Info/Data requests Regional andAlgorithm development Limited data release Global NWP

Ocean ModelsGround segment definition Scientific OutputGround segment testing publications

algorithmsanalysesproducts

Continuity of ResourcesData Preparations for Assimilation and Climate Applications

BEING SUSTAINING: Reach,Teach & Support the People

Keeping the Ideas and Ideals Alive

Hurricane Mitch Project in Costa Rica to celebrate the GOES8 receiving station and data server

GOES forward to 2012

Be Visionary! Reject the Tyranny of “OR”, use the Genius of “AND”, to optimize for high performing future generations by incorporating appropriate values from each R&D segment

• Create the Vision, Be First, Strategize for implementation of radical innovation in GOES program. Address new product lines and how to characterize success, Reqm'ts process, S&T roadmaps, effective management practices, AND

• Improve the present, Be Better, Manage resources wisely and track incremental progress. Address operational products and how to incorporate improvements, Performance metrics, efficiencies, AND

• Honor the Past, Be Sustaining, Remember who you are working for, and with. Customer service, training, and educationAND

• Shape the Future, Be New, allow some stretch in the system for the new ideas. What science is being addressed? Contributing to the body of knowledge